The rare gold coin market is really thin right now. What will it take to bring cool coins out of hid

earlyAurum · December 11, 2009 5:09AM

Are rare gold coins on the sidelines because:

a. Lack of demand
b. We are still off the peak of the market in terms of pricing
c. Seasonal
d. Economy
e. Combination of the above
f. Other

I recently bought a host of auction catalogs. It seems to me that recent auctions are not rich at all in terms of rare gold coins.

Thoughts?

earlyAurum

BillJones · December 11, 2009 5:16AM

At least in the case of very early U.S. gold coins, the pre recession market had already driven the prices for those pieces to very high levels. The value of these coins has almost nothing to due with their melt value; the prices reflect collector demand. While many people think that gold bullion might offer a hedge against inflation, it is questionable if the high collector demand will continue given the pessimism about the economy in general. Therefore these rare gold coins might be on the sidelines for sometime to come.

I hope I’m wrong because I’m holding a fair number of these pieces, but I’m not optimistic about their near term price appreciations.

ranshdow · December 11, 2009 9:15AM

Lack of supply. I suspect many are in strong hands.

Baley · December 11, 2009 9:27AM

The good stuff tends to go into hiding in a down market.

What are you looking for, generally? as in how early, and how rare?

as far as what it will take to lure the best stuff out? well... how about record bids for the pieces, that would do it!

Goldbully · December 11, 2009 9:34AM

Did we forget about the Jay Brahin Sale???

Images courtesy of messydesk.

Link

RYK · December 11, 2009 9:56AM

I became seriously interested in better date (so-called "rare date") 19th century gold in 2002. There is no question that there are many coins that were far more available 7 years ago than they are now. Some are legitimately scarce (1861-D $5, 1854-D $3, 1858 $10, etc.), and others are less so (1839-O $2.50, 1860's $10's, original Charlotte and Dahlonega $5's in XF).

Bear · December 11, 2009 10:22AM

A gun

earlyAurum · December 11, 2009 10:24AM

Goldbully,

Yes. Those Saints are exceptional! It would be nice to see some pre 1834 gold of the same quality come to market in the same quantity but that hasn't happened in a while.

As RYK also points out, scarce high demand branch mint product just hasn't come to market in a while.

I am just trying to understand what is keeping it off the market. I don't think that it is demand because everytime something nice and rare comes to the market it is well bid.

Thanks for the replies,
earlyAurum

fc · December 11, 2009 10:34AM

i am not sure why people expect the rare PQ examples of gold coins
SHOULD come up for sale every other year???

One has to think over the last seven years these coins have traded
hands so often they finally ended up with people who actually want
to own them for several years at the least.

My guess is that it will take some event to shake them loose down
the road. Perhaps a major collector of southern gold will consider it
is time to let them go and spur a whole new round of sales. But that
could be seven or more years from today.

RWB · December 11, 2009 11:28AM

The "rare gold coin market" is always thin - there just are not many nice examples around -- that's why they are rare.

roadrunner · December 11, 2009 11:46AM

With the market down, economy in sad shape, most would think that good coins would be forced out of hiding to pay bills, etc. And by "good" coins I mean priced right, problem free, and original. Well those coins hardly showed up during the boom years of 2004-2008. When they did they were retired early. Even raising the prices of MS65 bust halves from $5500 to $10,000 didn't bring out many all there examples several years back. So why would they show up now with prices cut by 10-20% on the sheets? I figure the rare gold coin market is the same way. So many coins have been played with the past few years to get them into higher holders that finally people are realizing there are very few good coins left. And there's no guarantee that raising prices 20-40% will bring them out. It didn't from 2004-2008.

The entire rare coin market has been really thin this entire decade if your criteria is for all there, problem-free, pleasing examples.

roadrunner

TahoeDale · December 11, 2009 11:47AM

I bought my early MS $5 gold in the 90's and plan to hold it for a long time. My proof gold was also bought really right, and since I have no cash needs at this time( in a down economy, to boot), it also will remain intact.

But why is there so little offered in auctions/web sites? I think most of it is in strong hands, at least the rarer coins from all early series.

We see a few 62 and 63 $5's, but hardly ever a 64 or better. However, proof gold does appear more regularly, and some nice examples will be at Heritage FUN. Along with some really great $20 Saints.

Moreover, much high end rare gold trades privately. Of the 20 or so I own, only two were bought at auction. But none of my dealers have offered me any in 3 years. So it remains tough to separate them from their owners.

BillJones · December 11, 2009 10:36PM

<< <i>The good stuff tends to go into hiding in a down market.

What are you looking for, generally? as in how early, and how rare?

as far as what it will take to lure the best stuff out? well... how about record bids for the pieces, that would do it! >>

If you are talking to me, I'm not selling, except perhaps for one piece. As to how early, the stuff I'm holding dates from 1795 to 1829, and the grades range from AU-50 to MS-62. All but two are PCGS AU graded coins. The other two are PCGS MS graded coins.

And yea, you are right. Record prices bring things out of the woodwork.

jdillane · December 11, 2009 11:17PM

I briefly owned an 1801 Eagle. MS but a problem coin. Zero luster but well struck. Let her go cheap in 2005.

The rare gold coin market is really thin right now. What will it take to bring cool coins out of hid

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