What should a dealer pay for a 2009 UHR PCGS MS-70 FS?

RYK · November 24, 2009 1:28AM

In another thread a couple days ago, a forum member lamented that he received all lowball offers for his 2009 UHR PCGS MS-70 FS at the Santa Clara show. Offers ranged from $100 over spot to $1600.

At first, I was sympathetic. After more thought, I am reconsidering. If you were a dealer, what would you pay for one, knowing that you would have to resell it in the current marketplace.

Disclosure: I am not a dealer and do not currently own a UHR. (Either of these facts is subject to change

).

RedHerring · November 24, 2009 1:55AM

Without the FS designation but with with all OGP in PCGS MS70 plastic they are availble for $1700.

$1600 seems fair.

291fifth · November 24, 2009 1:58AM

Unless a dealer has a "live one" waiting to buy this coin at the prices being realized in on-line auctions he should pay very little over melt.

There is too much downside risk if they pay much over melt. There may even be considerable risk in paying melt since the fear driven gold market may be a bubble that is about to burst.

adamlaneus · November 24, 2009 1:59AM

I'm surprised they are going for this much, still being available from the Mint and all. Anything over $1,489 seems expensive for this one right now.

I'll post my parody image here, in this thread.

RedHerring · November 24, 2009 2:00AM

<< There may even be considerable risk in paying melt since the fear driven gold market may be a bubble that is about to burst. >>

---------------------------------------------------------------------

You've got to be kidding............

greghansen · November 24, 2009 2:02AM

Without the FS designation but with with all OGP in PCGS MS70 plastic they are availble for $1700.

But this one is WITH the FS designation as well as all the OGP. I don't think they are readily available for $1,700. More like 2 grand or just a shade below.

I actually thought the final response of the dealer who was at the show and concluded he would have offered $1,650-$1,700 if he had been up to speed on all the market value issues, was pretty fair. I would be absolutely shocked if there were a dealer who would pay more than $1,750 for the coin even if he had a buyer 'in his pocket' where he could sell the coin the next day.

Link to original post with dealer analysis I referred to.

If the owner wants more, I think he can get it (even after netting out fees/costs, etc.) if he markets the coin himself. Selling the coin in a direct hand to hand with a dealer eliminates any transaction risk (non paying bidders, lost coin claims, returns, etc) so many people, including myself are willing to take a little less in a hand to hand with a dealer, to get the deal done now and know its a done deal. Just depends on how agressive the coin owner wants to be in maximizing his net.

291fifth · November 24, 2009 2:07AM

<< 

<< There may even be considerable risk in paying melt since the fear driven gold market may be a bubble that is about to burst. >>

---------------------------------------------------------------------

You've got to be kidding............ >>

I'm completely serious.

greghansen · November 24, 2009 2:10AM

O.K. well let me be the first one on the record to say to all holders of PCGS MS70 FS UHR's that if you are concerned about the gold bubble bursting, I will buy all these coins at melt so you can lock in your high melt prices. I will then take the risk of the bubble bursting.

wondercoin · November 24, 2009 2:12AM

I will start the bidding today at $1,850 (FS70 with all the trimmings)!

Wondercoin

greghansen · November 24, 2009 2:14AM

I will start the bidding today at $1,850!

Well color me shocked! But wondercoin always steps up with strong prices in his market.

Does this mean my melt bid is no good now

jmski52 · November 24, 2009 2:15AM

291fifth, are you sure that you aren't Jon Nadler in disguise?

Hey, if you can pick them up for melt, I'll buy them from you for $100 over. Deal?

roadrunner · November 24, 2009 2:18AM

It's just too easy to say I don't know what this is worth so I'll pay bullion. Or, the market could crash tomorrow so I'll pay bullion less 30%. I guess it's why used car dealers, auto mechanics, pawn shops, and coin shops often get bad reputations. Maybe 15 minutes of research would get someone up to speed. With the plethora of bullionesque products in a bullion driven rare coin market, it's important that dealers know what to pay and pay honestly. I understand it doesn't happen as often as it should. I've never been a fan of those buyers who pay too little because they need to ensure a fat cushion until they know what it's worth.

There are enough buyers for products like a 2009 UHR MS-70 FS that a phone call (or a 1 min. walk on the bourse floor) to any number of market participants could figure out what was a fair price within a few minutes. A $100 would be a fair profit on such a coin even if on the borderline for the 0-5% that generic/bullion gold tends to trade for when gold is strong. For those wholesalers who have ready sources, they could buy such a coin at a show on Sunday and have it sold that evening over the phone for a $25-$50 profit depending on the volume they are doing. And there are plenty of buyers who fall into that category. Their market risk is often neglible.

If all else fails I'm sure Wondercoin will give you his cell phone number so you can reach him at any time for an offer on modern bullionesque coins. And I'm sure he'd welcome the business.

Now I know why some coin dealers keep their heads down on the bourse when certain collectors come rambling by.

roadrunner

291fifth · November 24, 2009 2:21AM

<< 291fifth, are you sure that you aren't Jon Nadler in disguise?

Hey, if you can pick them up for melt, I'll buy them from you for $100 over. Deal? >>

I wouldn't buy them for melt unless I could flip them the same day.

Longacre · November 24, 2009 2:21AM

Below melt (with a nod toward 291fifth

)

jmski52 · November 24, 2009 2:22AM

I wouldn't buy them for melt unless I could flip them the same day.

Hah, I knew it. All talk. You know what they are worth, and you simply enjoy badmouthing Modern Bullion, because you feel "entitled" to collector's money that is going into Modern Bullion. Somebody has to say it. End of Story.

jmski52 · November 24, 2009 2:26AM

Below melt (with a nod toward 291fifth )

Ya, Longacre............whadd'you know?

fc · November 24, 2009 2:33AM

a dealer who will offer strong money will simply be the dealer who knows of an audience
who appreciates the finest in plastic with special labels. everyone else will simply low ball
it.

ebay is the perfect place to sell the coin as it reaches the audience who appreciates that
stuff.

high grade moderns + ebay = for the win

telephoto1 · November 24, 2009 2:42AM

Sorry guys but unless I have a live buyer ready, this piece gets a $100-150 over melt max offer if it comes in here, raw or slabbed. And I hope they pass because it's not an easy sell (as a numismatic piece). I can buy all of these I want from the mint at around $1500 so unless I have some financial incentive to do so over the counter then I'm not interested, certainly not at $1800 plus. They aren't rare and right now MY buyers want bullion, not "numismatic" bullion- and don't care if it's slabbed, much less FS. Seeing how the mint sells these for $300 over melt or so, with no mintage limits I might add, it's hard to make any money on them raw...so to attract numismatic buyers you need to waste money and time slabbing the *&^#@ things, and hope for the best. If you luck out and get a couple 70s you might make a buck (to the right buyer), but if they 69 then you just wasted time and money. Plus you are tying up cash flow (in a volatile market) that you could be investing into something that is a quicker, better and easier sell, like nice $20s or other easier to flip bullion where they don't care if it's in a coffin or not. I haven't liked these UHRs from a business standpoint since they came out. The only entity making real money on these, it seems, is the mint. Just my humble opinion, your mileage may vary.

ColonialCoinUnion · November 24, 2009 2:44AM

If one were offered to me at a show, I would tell the seller that I am not the high buyer of such items and suggest he try another dealer - ideally someone with such pieces in their display cases.

pf70collector · November 24, 2009 2:48AM

I have mine raw. Besides its a 69 anyway though I bought it for $1189 from the mint

jmski52 · November 24, 2009 2:48AM

It is probably true that only a few guys like Wondercoin are in a position to make a market in the MS-70s of the UHR.

I think that the appropriate answer is:

If one were offered to me at a show, I would tell the seller that I am not the high buyer of such items and suggest he try another dealer - ideally someone with such pieces in their display cases.

Anything less is a "rip" and the collector loses. Most good dealers understand this.

BigRick · November 24, 2009 2:49AM

Spot.

timcoin · November 24, 2009 3:00AM

Since such a large percentage of them were graded 70, I'd offer $175 under current US Mint issue price, then add whatever PCGS charges to grade/ship a single coin of that value. I figure the PCGS grading/shipping charge at around $75, if using Registered Mail. $100 less than current issue price seems about right, imo.

TheRaven · November 24, 2009 3:11AM

If you are not happy with the offer you are given, don't sell the coin.....

fc · November 24, 2009 3:12AM

seems like a blunt opinion is forming.

may be rude.. but here is how i see it. unless you know of a greater fool
not many dealers will pay a lot for it.

1. still being sold at the US mint.
2. a 70 is nothing special anymore.
3. FS is, well, lol.
4. common as all get out

to me it is a perfect example of marketing giving this example coin something
others do not have and is failing to give it value all can appreciate for the most part.

ColonialCoinUnion · November 24, 2009 3:17AM

<< If one were offered to me at a show, I would tell the seller that I am not the high buyer of such items and suggest he try another dealer - ideally someone with such pieces in their display cases. >>

I should add that there are many other things that could be offered to me at shows (and which often are) for which I would give exactly the same answer.

RYK · November 24, 2009 3:31AM

Well, we have quite a range, from about melt to $1850.

I do not think that the offers that seller received were necessarily unreasonable, given the context of the proposed sale (on the bourse). We also do not know how exactly he approached the dealers (ie. how aggressive he was about forcing an offer) and how genuinely interested the dealers were ("I do not usually buy these, but I'll pay melt for it...").

Having looked at the market, from my own perspective, these are still available from the Mint, and there are quite a few available on ebay, on the BST, at John Maben, at APMEX, etc. To me, the supply currently exceeds demand for the UHR. I personally do not place much value in the "70 FS" label, but there are those who do, and I respect that. If I were a "general" coin dealer, I probably would tell the seller that I do not buy these because I can get all I want from the Mint. If pressed, I might offer what the Mint currently sells them for plus cost to slab, $1450 or so, and figure that the "70 FS" was my profit margin for the piece. However, now that I know that Wondercoin pays $1850 for them, I would offer $1650.

Therefore, the $1600 offer that the seller turned down was probably close to what the average dealer should pay.

19Lyds · November 24, 2009 3:48AM

I'm with the "a bit over melt" crowd.

When these were released with the 1 per household limit, I could understand $1600 - $2000 for the coins but with the amount that is currently out there? It seems to have been demoted to just a collectible piece of bullion and quite frankly, the coin is just not that extrordinary.

But, there will always be folks who just have to have one so the real question is: How long will a dealer have to hold onto this before reselling it?

cladking · November 24, 2009 4:35AM

If dealers want to simply ignore the fastest growing part of the
market it might be preferable to ignore it completely . But to sug-
gest that the market doesn't exist because they refuse to partici-
pate is absurd. In some cases it would border on the dishonest.
I'm sure when any dealer buys a coin at any price he's going to sell
it for the most possible. If he knows these bring strong prices then
low offers are no more honest than are low ball offers on classics.

pennyannie · November 24, 2009 4:36AM

This coin is a easy flip so how much profit do you want or need. Buying a xxxx morgan ms65 for 1700(greysheet) would be a gamble to me but gold today is a quickie

notwilight · November 24, 2009 4:52AM

<< This coin is a easy flip so how much profit do you want or need. Buying a xxxx morgan ms65 for 1700(greysheet) would be a gamble to me but gold today is a quickie >>

It is not an easy retail flip but easy wholesale if you're buying at $1600 to sell to wondercoin (or me) for $1850. I'll be honest and say I was going to say $1800 until I saw Mitch's offer which I will match. The ebay market is very tough right now.

--Jerry

Raufus · November 24, 2009 4:54AM

Anyone paying extra for a "proof like" one?

notwilight · November 24, 2009 4:55AM

<< Anyone paying extra for a "proof like" one? >>

Are you talking an NGC designatioin?

telephoto1 · November 24, 2009 7:09AM

Since someone's broached the subject... we all have to admit that this modern stuff is sucking a LOT of cash away from the "vintage" collector coin market that might otherwise be spent there. And the mint is making more on moderns than anyone else.

notwilight · November 24, 2009 7:16AM

<< Since someone's broached the subject... we all have to admit that this modern stuff is sucking a LOT of cash away from the "vintage" collector coin market that might otherwise be spent there. And the mint is making more on moderns than anyone else. >>

Disagree strongly. I serve a few collectors that do both classic and moderns. They do spend on both classics and moderns but don't seem to be having cash flow problems.

OTOH, and much more common, I work with many collectors who have entered the arena only looking a moderns and classics never enter their mind. Sometimes eventually they do, bringing money into the classics.

Finally, how many members here call themselves modern flippers to support their classic buying habits?

--Jerry

telephoto1 · November 24, 2009 7:52AM

Disagree strongly. I serve a few collectors that do both classic and moderns. They do spend on both classics and moderns but don't seem to be having cash flow problems.

I'll call your "disagree strongly" and raise you a "disagree"...

Operative words there are "a few"...willing to bet that your Joe Average collectors who DO have occasional cash flow problems are facing choices of where to put their collecting dollar- mine are, and a lot of them are buying moderns, many directly from the mint. And their classic purchases are lagging a bit as a result. I'm seeing some evidence of that here. "I'd like to buy that '28 Peace dollar but I just bought 2 UHRs from the mint"...

OTOH, and much more common, I work with many collectors who have entered the arena only looking a moderns and classics never enter their mind. Sometimes eventually they do, bringing money into the classics.

Operative word there is "sometimes"...

Finally, how many members here call themselves modern flippers to support their classic buying habits?

That one I'll give you to a degree at least, but only those with the extra cash flow to finance said flipping....and that can still delay classic purchases until said flips can be accomplished, and assuming they aren't holding "betting on the come" for an even stronger market, yes?

Not looking to argue really, just playing devil's advocate...

bestday · November 24, 2009 7:56AM

<< 

<< 

<< There may even be considerable risk in paying melt since the fear driven gold market may be a bubble that is about to burst. >>

---------------------------------------------------------------------

You've got to be kidding............ >>

I'm completely serious. >>

jdimmick · November 24, 2009 8:24AM

I purchased 2 for around 2400 off the forum several months ago for a customer, I told him not to buy them, as they would soften a lot, he refuse to listen, and see what they are. On top of that, another customer of mine who made one, I tried to get him to sell it to the other customerr and maximize a profit , he refused to sell waiting for 3k, and so he is out as well.

jim d

wondercoin · November 24, 2009 8:49AM

Just a quick comment... I have no "customer" for any UHR coins I might buy now. I am just "gambling" on my perception of the future. Some strategies work out, some don't. I have won big and lost big over the years. In baseball, you need to be right 30% - 35% of the time to go to the Hall of Fame. With coins, perhaps that percentage is closer to 65%-75% of the deals? If two out of three purchases are bought "right", I should be fine in the long run. And, now that I know notwilight will match my price, I am even more confident about the UHR's.

Wondercoin

RedHerring · November 24, 2009 9:26AM

<< If dealers want to simply ignore the fastest growing part of the market it might be preferable to ignore it completely . >>

----------------------------------------

Well said.

I wonder what John Maben's take has been this month?

---------------------------------------

I do understand those who feel the FS designation is worth little, that a PCGS 70 grade is worth little, that lifting the household limit makes them worth little....

I wonder what John Maben's take has been this month?

cladking · November 24, 2009 10:27AM

<< Since someone's broached the subject... we all have to admit that this modern stuff is sucking a LOT of cash away from the "vintage" collector coin market that might otherwise be spent there. And the mint is making more on moderns than anyone else. >>

Neither coins nor the economy are zero sum gain. There can be all
winners or all losers.

The most effective way of being sure that all coin collectors are losers
is to chase off the next generation of collectors.

bestday · November 24, 2009 10:28AM

<< I will start the bidding today at $1,850 (FS70 with all the trimmings)!

Wondercoin >>

Hey wondercoin... you will the 1st stop when I am looking to do business.. Back about 4 weeks ago. I was looking to sell 8 of the MS-70s.. I got the same B.s. of just melt as a buy price from some dealers. I get the impression that of the low ball price dealers are hurting to get business

COINB0Y · November 24, 2009 10:30AM

<< I will start the bidding today at $1,850 (FS70 with all the trimmings)! >>

LOL!

COINB0Y · November 24, 2009 10:36AM

<< Some strategies work out, some don't. ... >>

Mitch, how about a *teaching moment*?

What was a buy strategy that worked, maybe a buy that didn't, or is yet to come?

You have the right to remain silent, but dang it, pass on some tidbits for some of us 'back-benchers'!

jmski52 · November 24, 2009 10:55AM

Since someone's broached the subject... we all have to admit that this modern stuff is sucking a LOT of cash away from the "vintage" collector coin market that might otherwise be spent there. And the mint is making more on moderns than anyone else.

And you neglected to mention that I also pointed out that some dealers feel "entitled" to the cash flow that is going into Modern Bullion coins. Since you don't see the irony here, cladking said it very well,

"If dealers want to simply ignore the fastest growing part of the market it might be preferable to ignore it completely . But to suggest that the market doesn't exist because they refuse to participate is absurd. In some cases it would border on the dishonest. I'm sure when any dealer buys a coin at any price he's going to sell it for the most possible. If he knows these bring strong prices then low offers are no more honest than are low ball offers on classics."

And I agree with him. Just because you might choose to deal in classic coins in no way entitles you to anything, at all, whatsoever, in any way, under no circumstances. See? It's really very simple. You choose what to deal. I choose what to buy. Simple!

I don't need a justification to buy whatever I want with my own cash.

COINB0Y · November 24, 2009 10:57AM

<< I don't need a justification to buy whatever I want with my own cash. >>

At least for now..................

TwoSides2aCoin · November 24, 2009 11:22AM

A dealer should pay as little as possible without offending his customer. Or, as close to spot without going over

And remember that we can't please everyone

wondercoin · November 24, 2009 11:28AM

Coinboy. Fair enough. I'll tell you one that has yet to work... an obvious mistake in retrospect. I bought and sold a great many 2006 Reverse proof Gold Eagles. I joint ventured many of them with forum members - after all, what was there not to like about a mintage 10,000 proof gold coin? The joint ventures with the forum member coins all went very well - even true classic coin collectors (in some cases my partners on these) took notice of the nice % returns they enjoyed on the deals and just how quickly the deals were closed out. BUT, I chose to hold a sizeable percentage of a joint venture position of these coins I had with a modern coin dealer who really didn't need the money and left it up to me to handle the ultimate timing of the sale of the coins. Of course, I thought these super low mintage gold type coins might increase even further. Big mistake. The money has been "dead" for nearly 3 years now. It might take 3 more years (or longer) to recover to the levels of 2007? Who knows. This is a perfect example of a coin that looked great "on paper", but never delivered to expectations (yet). I am sure I am not alone in folks still holding some extra reverse proof golds and the "game" certainly isn't over yet. But, I wish I had handled things differently on these. Anyone else surprised at the relatively mediocre performance of the 2006 REVERSE PROOF GOLD EAGLES?

Wondercoin

Raybo · November 24, 2009 11:33AM

<< Below melt (with a nod toward 291fifth

) >>

I agree.

Goldbully · November 24, 2009 11:35AM

Anyone else surprised at the relatively mediocre performance of the 2006 REVERSE PROOF GOLD EAGLES?

ME!!!!

jmski52 · November 24, 2009 11:35AM

Anyone else surprised at the relatively mediocre performance of the 2006 REVERSE PROOF GOLD EAGLES?

Somewhat, but they are still worth more than the original issue price, correct? They can be liquidated at a profit any time, so it's not all bad. You still see potential, or you'd have sold them off at a lower profit. Heck, if gold goes high enough some of them could even get melted. Yikes.

What should a dealer pay for a 2009 UHR PCGS MS-70 FS?

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