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What should a dealer pay for a 2009 UHR PCGS MS-70 FS?

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  • bestdaybestday Posts: 4,242 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Coinboy. Fair enough. I'll tell you one that has yet to work... an obvious mistake in retrospect. I bought and sold a great many 2006 Reverse proof Gold Eagles. I joint ventured many of them with forum members - after all, what was there not to like about a mintage 10,000 proof gold coin? The joint ventures with the forum member coins all went very well - even true classic coin collectors (in some cases my partners on these) took notice of the nice % returns they enjoyed on the deals and just how quickly the deals were closed out. BUT, I chose to hold a sizeable percentage of a joint venture position of these coins I had with a modern coin dealer who really didn't need the money and left it up to me to handle the ultimate timing of the sale of the coins. Of course, I thought these super low mintage gold type coins might increase even further. Big mistake. The money has been "dead" for nearly 3 years now. It might take 3 more years (or longer) to recover to the levels of 2007? Who knows. This is a perfect example of a coin that looked great "on paper", but never delivered to expectations (yet). I am sure I am not alone in folks still holding some extra reverse proof golds and the "game" certainly isn't over yet. But, I wish I had handled things differently on these. Anyone else surprised at the relatively mediocre performance of the 2006 REVERSE PROOF GOLD EAGLES?

    Wondercoin >>



    When the 25 th year Eagle Anniv set comes around ..SELL !! I too held on, but got out in late 2007 .Had many sets including the PCGS 70,70,70 Oh well
  • That is a surprise, such a unique coin w/ low mintage especially when compared to any other reverse proof ever issued from US Mint
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 17,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jmski52 - Yes, the gold content has risen since 2006, but I am just speaking of the reverse proof coin as a stand alone coin. Back in late 2006, the reverse proof was worth nearly 4x the amount of the bullion MS coin in the same set. It was also worth close to 4x the regular proof coin in the set. Today, the coin is worth about 1.5x the bullion MS coin and just slightly above "par" on a common proof gold eagle like the one in that set. Clearly, in retrospect, it was the wrong play to hold the reverse proof coin. The other coins have outperformed it in a huge way (so far).

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,265 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The other coins have outperformed it in a huge way (so far).

    Comparatively, you're right of course. Still, these things sometimes go in cycles. The unique finish is a killer, and the mintage is a winner. I'm not inclined to sell any of mine any time soon, but that's just me.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 17,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "I'm not inclined to sell any of mine any time soon, but that's just me"

    STRAP YOURSELF IN FOR THE LONG RUN (I ALREADY APPLIED MY STRAP).

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • Since the 2006 Gold Proofs are on deck let me ask..........

    Are those $2000 wholesale bids for 1oz. gold proofs applicable to the 2006 20th PR-DCAMs if submitted in original 3 coin box with COA??
    Just the one coin in the 3 coin box??

    Are they buying the 2006-W 1oz 20th MS also for $2000??

  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 17,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am not aware of the MS coin selling much above spot actually.

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • notwilightnotwilight Posts: 12,864 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Disagree strongly. I serve a few collectors that do both classic and moderns. They do spend on both classics and moderns but don't seem to be having cash flow problems.

    I'll call your "disagree strongly" and raise you a "disagree"...image Operative words there are "a few"...willing to bet that your Joe Average collectors who DO have occasional cash flow problems are facing choices of where to put their collecting dollar- mine are, and a lot of them are buying moderns, many directly from the mint. And their classic purchases are lagging a bit as a result. I'm seeing some evidence of that here. "I'd like to buy that '28 Peace dollar but I just bought 2 UHRs from the mint"...

    OTOH, and much more common, I work with many collectors who have entered the arena only looking a moderns and classics never enter their mind. Sometimes eventually they do, bringing money into the classics.

    Operative word there is "sometimes"...

    Finally, how many members here call themselves modern flippers to support their classic buying habits?

    That one I'll give you to a degree at least, but only those with the extra cash flow to finance said flipping....and that can still delay classic purchases until said flips can be accomplished, and assuming they aren't holding "betting on the come" for an even stronger market, yes?

    Not looking to argue really, just playing devil's advocate...image >>



    By strongly I didn't mean emotionally. I see your points but as a dealer of moderns, I feel I get almost no business from the classic coin collector core--there are a few exceptions but they don't seem to be paring back their classic purchasing much. Now guys buy inexpensive sets of undergrade moderns for their grand kids but that isn't sucking collecting dollars away. I'm saying that a guy buying a PR70DCAM 93 Gold Eagle for $5000 isn't sitting there comparing it to a trade dollar or a large cent.

    One more point. Remember that most collectors put a small percentage of their net worth into their collection. I would guess that flipping is usually done with money other than that set aside for collecting since it is a money making endeavor, not a collecting endeavor.

    --Jerry
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,890 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Anyone paying extra for a "proof like" one? >>



    Are you talking an NGC designatioin? >>



    Yes. PCGS is not doing such a designation for these.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,890 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Coinboy. Fair enough. I'll tell you one that has yet to work... an obvious mistake in retrospect. I bought and sold a great many 2006 Reverse proof Gold Eagles. I joint ventured many of them with forum members - after all, what was there not to like about a mintage 10,000 proof gold coin? The joint ventures with the forum member coins all went very well - even true classic coin collectors (in some cases my partners on these) took notice of the nice % returns they enjoyed on the deals and just how quickly the deals were closed out. BUT, I chose to hold a sizeable percentage of a joint venture position of these coins I had with a modern coin dealer who really didn't need the money and left it up to me to handle the ultimate timing of the sale of the coins. Of course, I thought these super low mintage gold type coins might increase even further. Big mistake. The money has been "dead" for nearly 3 years now. It might take 3 more years (or longer) to recover to the levels of 2007? Who knows. This is a perfect example of a coin that looked great "on paper", but never delivered to expectations (yet). I am sure I am not alone in folks still holding some extra reverse proof golds and the "game" certainly isn't over yet. But, I wish I had handled things differently on these. Anyone else surprised at the relatively mediocre performance of the 2006 REVERSE PROOF GOLD EAGLES?

    Wondercoin >>



    Mitch-

    Thanks for the great posts!!

    I am very interested in your opinion of the 2008 W plat uncs and the 2008 W AGE $10 Unc. Both are selling for very nice premiums at present. Based on the performance of the '06 W Plat uncs (while they were low mintage kings) I think that there is a good chance that the '08 W plat uncs will drop substantially soon and not see present levels for years. What do you think?

    Thanks!! Ron
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 17,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ron: The 08-W Plats are good coins as is the 08-W $10 Gold. With the 08-W $10 Gold you get the added bonus of a much broader demand for the coin. On the other hand, the coin has already roughly doubled in the past 30 days. To many, that is a great return and expect to see some profit taking. Heck, even RYK has headed to the exits this week with his 100% annual return in hand. Likewise, 08-W Plats have made a nice move as well. I would not be too surprised to see sideways action for a while.

    What I find perhaps even more interesting though is proof platinum. Remember, proof platinum is allowed in the IRA's just as proof gold. About 12-18 months ago, proof platinum was worth 2x as much as proof gold (and proof gold was everywhere, which isn't surprising since mintages on proof gold go up to 50,000 - 500.000 per year while typical mintages on proof platinum are around 9,000-15,000 per year). Today, proof platinum is worth about 85%-90% of proof gold. Yet, platinum is worth close to $300/oz more now. So, why isn't proof platinum going "through the roof" just as the much more common proof gold did? Anyone want to address this question? I'll follow up tomorrow with my comments on the question as well.

    As always, just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • krankykranky Posts: 8,709 ✭✭✭
    Picking winners would be simple if there weren't so many "low mintage" issues. We have a tendency to focus on mintage to predict future performance, but there are just too many low mintage coins. It always comes down to demand, and many of the low mintage coins don't have much demand. The collector base is finite. If there is a coin that really stands out as a low mintage coin it will do well because the demand will be there. But there aren't enough collectors to fuel demand across the entire panorama of what we call a low mintage coin.

    Some say the economy is a factor, and it probably is, but over time I see this just getting worse. As the Mint continues to crank out different items, it will only dilute the interest level. If people aren't chasing low mintage items now simply because of the low mintage, they will become even less interested as time goes on and there are more and more low mintage items out there. I think we can draw a parallel from looking at Royal Canadian Mint products. Number of products increase, mintages shrink, yet nobody really is interested.

    "Why isn't Coin X worth more?
    It has one of the lowest mintages for any [bullion | commem] coin
    struck in [gold | silver | platinum | bi-metallic]
    with a [normal | reverse proof | matte | burnished] finish
    [which is part of a series]
    [with a W mintmark]"

    Mix and match the items in the brackets and think about how many different coins fit the bill.

    New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.



  • << <i>

    << <i>Below melt (with a nod toward 291fifth image) >>



    I agree. >>



    Ok...so why are they getting close to $2300 on Ebay???

    UHR #1

    UHR #2
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,800 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As the Mint continues to crank out different items, it will only dilute the interest level. If people aren't chasing low mintage items now simply because of the low mintage, they will become even less interested as time goes on and there are more and more low mintage items out there. I think we can draw a parallel from looking at Royal Canadian Mint products. Number of products increase, mintages shrink, yet nobody really is interested.

    "Why isn't Coin X worth more? It has one of the lowest mintages for any [bullion | commem] coin struck in [gold | silver | platinum | bi-metallic] with a [normal | reverse proof | matte | burnished] finish [which is part of a series] [with a W mintmark]"


    Excellent analysis, kranky. I call this the baseballcardization of coins. I saw this play out in sports cards in the mid-late 1980's with people chasing an increasing number of limited edition issues until the market just collapsed under its own weight as people just gave up the chase. While the bullion/commem market is buoyed by the intrinsic value of the precious metal, there is no reason to believe that the numismatic premium could not shrink over time.


  • << <i>Ok...so why are they getting close to $2300 on Ebay??? UHR #1 >>

    I bought that one, at a net cost of $2064 after Bing and eBay bucks discounts. Whether PCGS says so on the label or not, it looks prooflike to me, and those certified as such across the street sell for megabucks already. image
    Good deals with: goldman86 mkman123 Wingsrule wondercoin segoja Tccuga OKCC LindeDad and others.

    my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/


  • << <i>Ron: The 08-W Plats are good coins as is the 08-W $10 Gold. With the 08-W $10 Gold you get the added bonus of a much broader demand for the coin. On the other hand, the coin has already roughly doubled in the past 30 days. To many, that is a great return and expect to see some profit taking. Heck, even RYK has headed to the exits this week with his 100% annual return in hand. Likewise, 08-W Plats have made a nice move as well. I would not be too surprised to see sideways action for a while.

    What I find perhaps even more interesting though is proof platinum. Remember, proof platinum is allowed in the IRA's just as proof gold. About 12-18 months ago, proof platinum was worth 2x as much as proof gold (and proof gold was everywhere, which isn't surprising since mintages on proof gold go up to 50,000 - 500.000 per year while typical mintages on proof platinum are around 9,000-15,000 per year). Today, proof platinum is worth about 85%-90% of proof gold. Yet, platinum is worth close to $300/oz more now. So, why isn't proof platinum going "through the roof" just as the much more common proof gold did? Anyone want to address this question? I'll follow up tomorrow with my comments on the question as well.

    As always, just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin >>


    ...................................................................

    I'll venture a guess on the gold vs. platinum IRA question.........

    It simply reflects the limited knowledge most people have when it comes to gold vs. platinum.

    While many people on the street could tell you within $100 the price of gold I doubt 1 in 1000 could do it for platinum.

    Quick............Without looking how many readers know todays spot for platinum?? palladium?? Rhondium??

    Someone considering putting gold in an IRA might ask their tax account.

    He could possibly give answer on proof gold but I'm sure same question on platinum would get a "I don't know............".

    As far as the relative % premiums over spot of proof gold vs. proof platinum I don't see it as an underperformance of proof platinum but rather a reflection of a temporary, aberantly high premium on proof gold.

    One positive is the halo effect this interest in gold eagles will have long term.

    Some of those people buying proof gold will do a little research and will discover proof ASEs, APEs, 20th anniversary sets and dare I say it..........they may get interested in numismatics in general.

    Lets hope so...............
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,265 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excellent analysis, kranky. I call this the baseballcardization of coins. I saw this play out in sports cards in the mid-late 1980's with people chasing an increasing number of limited edition issues until the market just collapsed under its own weight as people just gave up the chase. While the bullion/commem market is buoyed by the intrinsic value of the precious metal, there is no reason to believe that the numismatic premium could not shrink over time.

    Some people would say that the constant changing of designs and multiplication of varieties in order to produce "instant rarities" makes coin collecting more interesting. I don't. I find it to be confusing when the Mint and/or Congress jerks me in one direction, only to be jerked in a different direction a year later.

    So I pick and choose, and I actually make an effort to avoid some new issues. I consider the initial premium, the potential market or audience, the potential mintages, continuity of the series, the attactiveness (or not) of the design, and the economy.

    However....................................

    I invest, and therefore I collect - but the investing takes precedence. Modern Bullion coins are my stock market. I try to score big. Last year, instead of reaching backward and buying a 1 ozer or two of Platinum, I bought as many 2008-W 1/4 oz. AGEs as I could muster. Time will tell whether that was a good choice. The Plats could soar and the AGEs could crash. It happens.

    I don't flip Moderns in order to finance the purchase of classics. When I sell, it's mainly to clear out the junk. Some day, it will be to generate income for living expenses. Right now, I see no need to sell for a profit and to pay more taxes on the gains. Since I am still earning an income, to sell now would be plain foolishness.

    I keep telling myself that I'll buy the Plats that I still need for a complete collection, and then along comes another new issue that I want to invest in. So, it's a two edged sword - too many issues and lots of good ones. If the carosel stops, I'll get off - but the coins will still be made out of gold and platinum either way. I love having a two-pronged investment vehicle that can win in two different ways, and Modern Bullion works well in that regard.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.


  • So I pick and choose, and I actually make an effort to avoid some new issues. I consider the initial premium, the potential market or audience, the potential mintages, continuity of the series, the attactiveness (or not) of the design, and the economy.

    However....................................

    I invest, and therefore I collect - but the investing takes precedence. Modern Bullion coins are my stock market. I try to score big. Last year, instead of reaching backward and buying a 1 ozer or two of Platinum, I bought as many 2008-W 1/4 oz. AGEs as I could muster. Time will tell whether that was a good choice. The Plats could soar and the AGEs could crash. It happens.

    I love having a two-pronged investment vehicle that can win in two different ways, and Modern Bullion works well in that regard. >>


    ....................................................................................

    Ditto!!
  • telephoto1telephoto1 Posts: 4,962 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The "getting pulled in too many directions" comment is very salient and speaks to the point I was attempting to make. I maintain that UHRs with no mintage limit are not going to sustain high premiums indefinitely. I honestly think these are going to be just another bullion coin (with a modest premium) after the mania subsides. I'll be very interested to see what premiums do on these post holidays. Just my opinion and I certainly AM "entitled" to that...

    And FYI...I don't think dealers are "entitled" to anyone's money and never said or inferred that...I was merely making the valid observation that moderns are indeed pulling disposable income away from classics. And I'm not the only one saying this. There's nothing wrong with making a buck on moderns; just make sure the "2 prongs" don't get stuck someplace sensitive, if you get on the wrong side of the fad coin(s) du jour. I heard similar comments when the First Spouses, et. al. debuted. Again JMHO.image

    RIP Mom- 1932-2012
  • mrpotatoheaddmrpotatoheadd Posts: 7,576 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I was merely making the valid observation that moderns are indeed pulling disposable income away from classics. And I'm not the only one saying this. >>

    I used to collect Canadian coins by date/denomination, but eventually became so frustrated by the RCM's ever-expanding variety of offerings that I gave up on them entirely. As an example, there are THREE DIFFERENT 2009 prooflike sets this year. Not the coins, mind you- they're all the same. The packaging, however, comes in three different versions. And this doesn't even begin to address the issue of having to waste money buying multiple SETS of coins to get all the new INDIVIDUAL coins, because one coin will only come in set A and another, only in set B, with the rest of the coins in the sets being duplicated over the two sets. It's just gotten too crazy for me. So now, all my collecting dollars (as far as Canadian coins go, anyway) are spent on the classics.

    Just another data point for your consideration. image

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