Options
Coin Market Predictions for Sept/1/2010
Bear
Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
1.I say the coin market will be higher by 10%.
2. Less auction houses
3.More dealers will be on line with pictures.
4.Silver Commems will end their 15 years in the doldrums.
5. Type coins in Gem Condition will lead the rally.( no surprise)
6. There will be mergers of shows, less shows, bigger shows.
7. A lot of small B&M stores will be gone.
We will repost this thread and see whose predictions were most accurate.
2. Less auction houses
3.More dealers will be on line with pictures.
4.Silver Commems will end their 15 years in the doldrums.
5. Type coins in Gem Condition will lead the rally.( no surprise)
6. There will be mergers of shows, less shows, bigger shows.
7. A lot of small B&M stores will be gone.
We will repost this thread and see whose predictions were most accurate.
There once was a place called
Camelot
Camelot
0
Comments
2. Ebay will be replaced by a new online coin sales venue with lower fees and less intereference with sellers.
3. Several major coin firms will have gone bankrupt similar to NGE.
4. DGS will be defunct.
5. Gold and Silver will be higher with Silver pushing $50.
6. Big Shows like Long Beach with high table fees and going too many days -will be in trouble.
7. Dealers at shows will be tough survivors who buy low and sell high.
8. CAC will be in trouble or have folded.
9. Numismatic News will have folded.
10. Shows will be more in the 1-2 day range with Sundays eliminated.
11. There will be more junk boxes at shows as dealers start to realize this material is high profit.
12. Bids for quality 19th Century Type in MS 64 or higher will be up.
13. There will be a resurging interest in Franklin Halves.
14. The Chinese will start counterfeiting inexpensive World and USA collector coins that typically trade under $100.
<< <i>1.I say the coin market will be higher by 10%.
2. Less auction houses
3.More dealers will be on line with pictures.
4.Silver Commems will end their 15 years in the doldrums.
5. Type coins in Gem Condition will lead the rally.( no surprise)
6. There will be mergers of shows, less shows, bigger shows.
7. A lot of small B&M stores will be gone.
We will repost this thread and see whose predictions were most accurate. >>
Here are my thoughts:
1. Good chance, and hopefully higher from a dealer's point of view.
2. Not a year from now. The major auction houses in business today are still financially stable.
3. Yes.
4. There are signs they're becoming more active now.
5. Yes.
6. I believe there will be fewer shows, but not enough consolidation to be noticeably different from this year.
7. That's already been happening.
Authorized dealer for PCGS, PCGS Currency, NGC, NCS, PMG, CAC. Member of the PNG, ANA. Member dealer of CoinPlex and CCE/FACTS as "CH5"
<< <i>1. Teletrade will have folded
2. Ebay will be replaced by a new online coin sales venue with lower fees and less intereference with sellers.
3. Several major coin firms will have gone bankrupt similar to NGE.
4. DGS will be defunct.
5. Gold and Silver will be higher with Silver pushing $50.
6. Big Shows like Long Beach with high table fees and going too many days -will be in trouble.
7. Dealers at shows will be tough survivors who buy low and sell high.
8. CAC will be in trouble or have folded.
9. Numismatic News will have folded.
10. Shows will be more in the 1-2 day range with Sundays eliminated.
11. There will be more junk boxes at shows as dealers start to realize this material is high profit.
12. Bids for quality 19th Century Type in MS 64 or higher will be up.
13. There will be a resurging interest in Franklin Halves. >>
1. Seriously doubt it though they may be re-branded as part of Bowers and Merena. Teletrade has constant consignors and access to one of the largest inventories in the business.
2. May happen in the distant future, but not by next year.
3. Mismanagement was a factor, not due to any lack of business. There won't be any surprises as the dealers in the know already know which companies/ dealers are experiencing operating difficulties and have their writings on the wall.
4. Doubt it, they're profitable.
5. Spot prices may be higher, but I doubt silver will be near $50/oz. by this time next year.
6. Maybe.
7. At exactly what level of buying would be considered "buying low"? What about "selling high"? Selling four-figured coins with a $10 markup isn't realistic in most circumstances.
8. Doubt it as long as there is demand for CAC certification as there is now (and that demand is growing daily).
9. Not likely.
10. Sundays will be more likely to be eliminated but those shows may be scheduled to begin earlier in the week.
11. There is plenty of available inventory for junk boxes. Although you sold an item for $4 that cost you only $1 (earning a 400% profit) it's still only an extra $3 in your pocket...not quite enough to buy yourself a Big Mac at Micky 'D's. You've gotta sell a lot of junk to make a living selling out of a junk box.
12. Yes.
13. There may be some resurgence, but don't count on them being the talk of the industry.
Authorized dealer for PCGS, PCGS Currency, NGC, NCS, PMG, CAC. Member of the PNG, ANA. Member dealer of CoinPlex and CCE/FACTS as "CH5"
Later in the year, IGPCGS will get raided for false market numbers and thus the hobby will be like it was 30 years ago swapping two Xf coins for a slider or a Ms 62 coin a weekend hoedown or at Arbys over a ArbyQ special during lunchtime..
<< <i>1. Teletrade will have folded
2. Ebay will be replaced by a new online coin sales venue with lower fees and less intereference with sellers.
3. Several major coin firms will have gone bankrupt similar to NGE.
4. DGS will be defunct.
5. Gold and Silver will be higher with Silver pushing $50.
6. Big Shows like Long Beach with high table fees and going too many days -will be in trouble.
7. Dealers at shows will be tough survivors who buy low and sell high.
8. CAC will be in trouble or have folded.
9. Numismatic News will have folded.
10. Shows will be more in the 1-2 day range with Sundays eliminated.
11. There will be more junk boxes at shows as dealers start to realize this material is high profit.
12. Bids for quality 19th Century Type in MS 64 or higher will be up.
13. There will be a resurging interest in Franklin Halves.
14. The Chinese will start counterfeiting inexpensive World and USA collector coins that typically trade under $100. >>
Sounds like your personal wish list rather than a prediction.
<< <i>ICG will buy PCGS then corner the market. NGC will have to fold.. Later in the year, IGPCGS will get raided for false market numbers and thus the hobby will be like it was 30 years ago swapping two Xf coins for a slider or a Ms 62 coin a weekend hoedown or at Arbys over a ArbyQ special during lunchtime.. >>
Stew
<< <i>I will go with WTCG on this one.... He has a firm grasp of the market and realistic assessment of the coin business. Cheers, RickO >>
Notice he left out a comment about prediction #14.
<< <i>I will go with WTCG on this one.... He has a firm grasp of the market and realistic assessment of the coin business. Cheers, RickO >>
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
<< <i>
<< <i>I will go with WTCG on this one.... He has a firm grasp of the market and realistic assessment of the coin business. Cheers, RickO >>
Notice he left out a comment about prediction #14.
Maybe because it's already happening.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>1.I say the coin market will be higher by 10%.
2. Less auction houses
3.More dealers will be on line with pictures.
4.Silver Commems will end their 15 years in the doldrums.
5. Type coins in Gem Condition will lead the rally.( no surprise)
6. There will be mergers of shows, less shows, bigger shows.
7. A lot of small B&M stores will be gone.
We will repost this thread and see whose predictions were most accurate. >>
The US Mint will run out of Gold & Silver, Only clad coins for now on!
<< <i>
<< <i>I will go with WTCG on this one.... He has a firm grasp of the market and realistic assessment of the coin business. Cheers, RickO >>
Notice he left out a comment about prediction #14.
Prediction #14 was added after the fact, but since everybody wants to know...
14. It's already happening, and the quality of the copy coins will likely improve.
I also agree that the second set of predictions on this tread appear to be a wish list, and not set of actual predictions.
Authorized dealer for PCGS, PCGS Currency, NGC, NCS, PMG, CAC. Member of the PNG, ANA. Member dealer of CoinPlex and CCE/FACTS as "CH5"