What do Silver Eaglists think of 1995-W Big Drop?
GritsMan
Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭
Just opened my newest NN, and saw Paul Sims was finally listing these under 3K--$2990 to be exact. I dug out a 12/25/07 issue and saw he had them for $4,695 back then--a 27% drop. My guess is that the price is actually quite a bit softer than that, too. What do you Silver Eagle nuts think? Is this long overdue or just an economy-driven drop? It's one of the few moderns I have NOT bought at its highest possible price. Time to buy now?
Similarly, the 2006 RP fell from $369 to 189 in the same period. Thoughts?
Similarly, the 2006 RP fell from $369 to 189 in the same period. Thoughts?
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Russ, NCNE
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<< <i>There are a lot of moderns with mintages far less than 30,000. This isn't surprising. >>
Yes, but the question is, how many collectors are there? Anyone got an idea of the # of silver eagle collectors?
i've been writing about how this coin should be priced in the 2-2.5k range for two years.
there was no reason for the dramatic price increase over the last few years
<< <i>95w pricing at 4.5k was way overblown.
i've been writing about how this coin should be priced in the 2-2.5k range for two years.
there was no reason for the dramatic price increase over the last few years >>
If folks will pay it, why not?
The name is LEE!
"A car is a tool that takes you from one place to another. Everything beyond that is a payment for other people's perception of you."
And don't forget those 1000 coin bags of Quarters.
Modern crap rules.
In any case the 93 70's are limited to just over 200 and you always see a few sellers here and there. I take that to mean there is only around 175 perfect complete sets really out there (not including 95W) and the rest are just floating around being traded piecemeal.
Finally, if any price needs to drop its the RP's! There is 250K!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That should be trading for around $99 tops and $200 tops for a 70. But, there are more astute minds here so please tell me where I went wrong in my thinking.
Box of 20
...........................Finally, if any price needs to drop its the RP's! There is 250K!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That should be trading for around $99 tops and $200 tops for a 70.
these both sound like "sour grapes" replies from collectors who are just too unwilling to buy at a price that has been set by the principal of supply and demand. the only reason, let me repeat, the only reason the price is dropping is because the demand is being met while some supply still remains, not because it was way over-priced to begin with. wake up guys, the market place doesn't respond to your wishes about how much an item should cost anymore than the supplier(U.S. Mint) responds to your wishes about how many should be struck.
Classic collectors could care less about this type of material. If it all disappeared tomorrow, they wouldn't even notice.
rock on bud!!!
Also, to the same point, the supply for the 95-W is a bit skewed as dealers were unable to buy these in any quantity and IMHO many are still locked in the 5 coin sets held by collectors not interested in selling. That reduces the effective available supply substantially.
It is far easier to find 1909 SVDB and 16-D keys, yet because of their demand the prices stay high.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
JH
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<< <i>Finally, if any price needs to drop its the RP's! There is 250K!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That should be trading for around $99 tops and $200 tops for a 70 >>
I wouldn't be expecting this to happen any time soon. These have already dropped huge from issue, and have pretty much stabilized at what appear to be long term levels.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
<< <i>Finally, if any price needs to drop its the RP's! There is 250K!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That should be trading for around $99 tops and $200 tops for a 70 >>
I wouldn't be expecting this to happen any time soon. These have already dropped huge from issue, and have pretty much stabilized at what appear to be long term levels.
Russ, NCNE >>
What do you guys think about the 2006 AGE RPs? They have come down in price as well right?
<< <i>these both sound like "sour grapes" replies from collectors who are just too unwilling to buy at a price that has been set by the principal of supply and demand. >>
Sounds more like replies by collectors who saw speculators/investors buying these up. Perhaps those “sour grapes” collectors did not want to buy at prices set by a speculative bubble. Seems like they may have been right.
<< <i>the only reason, let me repeat, the only reason the price is dropping is because the demand is being met while some supply still remains >>
“While the supply still remains” makes it sound like you are talking about a perishable or consumable item for which the supply will deplete. The supply is fixed -- only the supply being offered on the market at any point in time is variable. If the price is dropping it is either because the demand is dropping and/or because more holders of the supply are trying to sell at the same time while demand is either stable or dropping.
<< <i>not because it was way over-priced to begin with. >>
Unless the market prices were materially influenced by speculators/investors, which might have made the coin “overpriced” from an analysis based on collector demand and total supply.
CG
They've come down a bit, but sales are infrequent enough to make it somewhat difficult to pin down the current pricing. At one point, I think that the asking prices for a PCGS-70 were approaching $4,000 but the most recent sales have been around $3,000. But, prices have bounced between those two figures all over the map.
The NGC-69 and PCGS-69 coins remained relatively close to the PR-70s with a loss of a few hundred dollars or so. This tells me that the mintage of 10,000 is important.
There are many more ASE collectors than AGE collectors, however there were always more 1 oz. AGEs bought than the fractionals, so the potential collecting base is pretty solid for 1 oz. AGEs. Not to mention that the RP is the first American Reverse Proof gold coin ever made.
That won't matter to the naysayers, tho. Pity, their loss.
I knew it would happen.
As for my part I would not be a buyer of the 1995-W silver eagle if it were selling for $100 or even $50. I thought that the 1995 Proof set with the gold and silver coins together was neat once I knew it existed, but as a single coin, the 1995-W silver eagle does nothing for me as a collector. There are modern commemoratives, like all three coins in the Statue of Liberty set, that interest me much more. I would not pay an outrageous price for any of these coins because the supply and demand situation does not warrant that. I just like them as a collector.
The belligerence exhibited here by those who seem to live and die by the hyped up, over priced segment of the modern coin market is striking. You can’t have an honest discussion with them without it ending in a personal attack. If their stands were not built sand, they would not be so quick to attack those who do not agree with them. It’s one of the aspects of this blog that makes it less than appealing at times.
Since I got my 95W with the 10 Anniversary set the price of the 95W will have to drop a LONG way before I would ever be concerned about it. This continued price drop can happen of course if circumstances come together in the right way. Remember the 1903O Morgan going for thousands of dollars until a couple of bags of them were found in US Mint storage. The price dropped to $15 each, but now command hundreds of dollars.
Things change. I remember a dealer in 1960 giving me the option of either buying a SG 1922S for $55 in very nice condition, or a 1920S in not quite as good a condition for $60. At the time there were very few 22S around, so I took the 22S over the 20S. Today, the cost of a nice 20S is around $100K, while the 22S is only about $5K. I still have the 22S after all of these years to remind me that things change.
<< <i>And I still maintain the price of the RP will come down much further. >>
I wouldn't be surprised--and I'm not bothered by the spirited opinions. I like seeing some passion and fire regarding moderns. It's exciting to speculate about their popularity in the future--and watch their prices ebb and flow. Silver eagles, especially, are an interesting group to me because with minor exceptions, they're identical from year to year and are in identical condition--and no, I do not feel that the difference between a 68 and a 70 is all that significant with regards to moderns (flame away!). But it does lead me to compare the silver eagles and the proof plats with their changing designs, and make me wonder if one or the other will ultimately prove more appealing. Or is the decision which to collect based mostly on your income bracket?
FYI, I don't collect silver eagles, but do collect gold eagle fractionals and the platinum proof fractionals.
BTW, I'm VERY jealous of folks who bought the original '95 set from the Mint!
belligerant??? personal attack??? methinks some of yous' guys are a bit touchy and paranoid!!
as for the supply, certainly the "Number Struck" isn't perishable or consumable but it is a number which isn't fixed in the generally accepted way we'd think with supply and demand. the sets needed to be broken up for the single coins to exist for a collector of only ASE's and it has grown over time. the demand has always been a speculative figure regarding how many collectors actively assemble sets of both PR/MS coins and would "want" the subject coin in their collections. the simple answer is that it appears those two sets of numbers have found each other, how many buyers there are and how many coins are available to them.
what else could it be??? do you suspect that all the sellers have decided to sell for less?? do you suspect that everyone who wanted the coin in the past has somehow decided to only pay a lesser amount for it??
as for the "sour grapes" comment, so sorry if i touched a nerve.
about that 3-coin Anniversary Set, that was a total hype driven promotion that only lasted a short while and was principally driven by the graded coins. as others have said, it seemed to peak and fall back quickly and now seems willing to stay around $150(i think that's where they are but don't crucify me if i'm wrong). we always take them to shows and seem to be able to sell a few a month. as someone else has said, that set with the Reverse Proof is actually collectible for a good reason while the 95-W is sort of Mint created novelty because of the MM and how it was marketed. bad US Mint............................
all the collectors that got sucked in on buying these from the TV hucksters have finally figured out they they were sold a overrated product and that they are not ever going to get rich off these sets and are dumping them.
It would not surprise me to see these at $ 1999 before the year is out.
I have tons of OBW rolls of cents, nickels, dimes from the 60's up thru now, that could be spent to put food on the table if it ever gets that bad. So little intrest in the most of the dates. Modern crap is modern crap, buy it from the mint when issued or pass, or collect from banks at face.
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working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i>What do Silver Eaglists think of 1995-W Big Drop? >>
When the 2 dealers that usually promote it start to promote it again the price will firm or rise.
Generic proofs have moved up 15% + in the past 60 days. The bullion issues still carry a hefty premium to other silver bullion poducts. I have no idea where peeps get the idea that they're dead in the water.
No way that a 70 should sell for $15-20K!!! Even with the demand, the 70 price should be 3-5K and under $1000 for a 69
oops, i almost forgot....................and don't even get me started on the 08/07... There are many other far superior coins if you want to spend $15,000
statements like this is where y'all come off looking rather foolish, especially the "Penny Lady" who seems to feel some of her coins are OK to be worth what she thinks they should be worth. to sit back and snipe about why this coin or that coin is overpriced in your mind and to suggest you know better than the open market-place what it's worth if insane.
look at it this way, Annie; most of the civilized world thinks those Cents you cherish are only worth .01 Dollar and since the Silver Eagles are denominated, well, figure out the rest. the collectors who are buying them have figured out what they are worth and together with the sellers have reached an agreement. that sets the price. it is called supply and demand. when one or the other changes, so does the price. you guys know that.
should is a stupid word to use sometimes and i fall into the trap, i suppose i SHOULD stop, but i can't!!!
Many suggested the coin was way overpriced and doomed to fall sharply while others cited supply and demand factors previously stated in this thread.
If you look at the number of proof SAEs sold each year by the Mint, you will quickly notice there is quite a collecting base for this series. Whether or not you like moderns, the figures are indisputable with regard to mintage.
I am not certain where the equilibruim price for this coin should be as only 30,000 were sold against typical sales in the 500,000 range for much of the series. The second and third lowest mintages are just under 400,000 and many were substantially above 600,000.
Given these are strictly collector coins, there certainly is a substantial base out there. While many prefer raw coins or just are not aware of the nature of the slabbed market and collect what they like, clearly there are many collecting graded SAEs.
All that said, I think the general pull back of the coin market (less true rarities in spectacular condition) would suggest that a selling range from 2,600 to 2,900 would not be unrealistic. I understand classic collectors would not pay 100 for the coin (BillJones) and that just suggests that many classic collectors do not like moderns. This is a big tent with room for all, but the 1995-W SAE has value whether or not you would pay it is immaterial as there IS a real market for them.