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John Adams Missing lettering smooth edge error get yours while you still can
packers88
Posts: 558
I'm a big fan of these and therefore a little biased, but if you have been debating whether or not to get one let me give you some facts. First, estimated mintage is around 7,000 to 8,000 and when compared to other recent major mint errors this is extremely small. THe Washington Smooth edge is estimated to be 150,000 plus, the wisconsin leafs 40,000 plus, and the adam's double edges 40,000 plus. Better yet, compare this coin to the 55 double die with 24,000 estimated, the 37 legged buffalo with 20,000 estimated and you have something special here. PCGS and NGC have graded a combined total of about 4,000 and I've closely watched the number graded in the last year and the total number graded increases about 4 or 5 per week and this number has been steadily decreasing each month. This is the one error coin that is actually going up on ebay in recent months as opposed to going down like alot of mint errors from the turn in the economy. A ngc 65 just sold for $700 and most sellers are asking high prices for these coins realizing their scarcity and not willing to take less than a good price. Finally, unlike the washington smooth edges and the wisconsin leafs which always has sellers selling hoards of them on ebay, there appears to be no sellers on ebay for the adam's smooth edges that are selling quantities which is a good thing for long term price appreciation. I live in Michigan where these were found and attend all coin shows and i can tell you finders of the double edges who found hundreds or thousands of double edges hardly found any adam's smooth edges, so I personally know how scarce these are. I have a few of these stashed away and I honestly believe this coin will see significant price appreciation in the coming years with limited supply, no new edge errors coming out of the mint anymore since the jefferson smooth edge, and the Mint changing the edge format starting next month.
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Eric
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Any estimate on the number of Jefferson smooth edges? I had heard that they may be scarcer than the Adams smooth edge. If the Adams is the "second key" instead of the top key of the smooth edges, wouldn't this affect its price going forward? >>
The Jefferson Smooth Edge is probably THE MOST OVERRATED, over SPECULATED, and OVER PRICED coin in the world!
PCGS has certified 1,293 of these coins ranging in grade from MS64 at $2,450.00 each to MS68 at $7,000.00 each.
From the initial posting of 884 coins being graded, these were virtually impossible to find until some company started selling them as "investment" coin at rediculous prices. (The entire Jefferson Dollar set record breaking prices which resulted in some big time losses but thats a different story) Those folks that bought into these are in for some long term disappointments IMO because the populations continue to rise on these. (Over 400 coins since April of this year alone)
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I expect that as more boxes of Jeffersons come to light that more and more of these will be "discovered" and sold at astronomical prices until the general population figures out that there are a ton of these floating around!
No coin that has 663 graded by PCGS in MS66 should ever expect to sustain a price of $4,000.00. These coins do not trade on the open market with much frequency which is what contributes to their mistique but the sad reality is that the folks that paid upwards of 4, 5, and 6 thousand dollars will live to regret it.
Thomas Jefferson Presidential Dollar Mintage = 203,610,000
Thats a lot of coins.
And yes, the Jefferson MEL coins is a sore subject with me since the methods used to promote and sell these smells strongly of "promotional creativity" similar to the World Reserve Ballistic Roll. Do any web search on World Reserve Ballistic Roll to "learn" how effective marketing "technique's" can separate your money from your wallet!
A single 50 coin roll of "never circulated" Monroe coins will only cost you:
BTW, I'm not trying to Hijack this thread as the OP may be right but my experience has been that until a good portion of the Presidential dollars are actually looked at, any numbers representing populations or mintages are pure speculation which may or may not pan out in the long run.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>I honestly believe this coin will see significant price appreciation in the coming years with limited supply, no new edge errors coming out of the mint anymore since the jefferson smooth edge, and the Mint changing the edge format starting next month. >>
The last time I heard that "no new edge errors" would be made was after the Mint got bad publicity after the Washingtons were issued. If the Mint continues producing edge-lettered coins, there will always be the possibility of errors, will there not?
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
Very Important: As you stated, the JA Dollars were found in MICHIGAN.. That IS KEN POTTER's Backyard. Conveinent for HIS PROMOTION !! And don't think that he and his cronies aren't self-serving !!!!! CONECA with the great exception of Rick Snow and Chris Pilliod basicly did a "show me the proof" posture for the WI Quarters.
WI Quarters mintage of 40,000. Highs are Highs and Lows are Lows. Two separate coins. Now, Four years of TPG submissions PCGS/NGC) Lows total 9315 and Highs total 6854. Several by now are cross-overs and resubmits counted multiple times. Almost 3 times as long as your JA Dollars have been accounted for by TPG and Ebay.
Ebay was a gold mine for the WI Quarter sellers from the get-go. The Ebay market was contrived and manipulated by a small group of entrepreneurs that took coin prices to unrealistic and damaging lofty levels. Once those folks had pretty well cashed out, there was little price support and the prices have come down drasticly. People have "dumped" what seems like endless supplies of these low mintage coins on Ebay over a short period of time. I am no expert, but all of this as of the age of Ebay is not unexpected. I live in the SA - Austin, TX area and I can tell you that these coins are not being found in change much anymore. IMHO, the mintage of the separate Low Leaf is some where about 15,000-20,000 and high about 10,000-15,000. So let's not treat each coin's mintage as one total please.
The Non Ebay WI Quarter market has been uphill ever since Bob Ford announced to the world through Rob Weiss in 12/04. Potter and many of his cronies turned up their noses to these rare and unusual coins. No modern "error" coin s/be promoted to these price levels. Potter said I beleive that they were $10 coins at best and the result of a die gouge on the coin press. Now, the WI market has come pretty much full circle. It is in the Redbook, Greysheet, coin price guides, TGP Registry sets and auctions. John Doe can buy a circulated example off Ebay at a very reasonable, uninflated price and add it to his collection. IMHO, don't count the WI Quarters out. They are now seasoned and will be appreciated for what they really are in the future.
Fellow members... if my lenghtly reply is too lenghtly for your enjoyment of this New Year Day, then simply don't bother to read it. Thanks.
As for people claiming die chip and ridiculous values for the leafs, I won't name names, but who have what's called the jealously factor. Reports of collectors, treasure hunters, and entreprenuers finding jackpot hoards in arizona creates jealousy as they reap tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of loot from just opening rolls with zero risk. We had it here in MIchigan where dealers and coin shops missed the boat and naturally you have jealous people trying to put the coin down because joe the collector finds 1000 double edges and john the dealer finds nothing. Yes, many dealers and collectors are happy for everyone else, but you also have a breed that were late the game and found nothing and naturally many become jealous and want to put the coin down. Here is my opinion, on the leafs, hands down 99.9% sure it was an intentional act at the MInt. The die chip theory may have had some credibilitiy if only one leaf had shown up, but the fact that 2 leafs so prominently placed showed up in such of a ideal and picture perfect matter, would logically tell any person with an average iq level that this had to be an intentional act. IF it were a die chip, how in the heck do two die chips make it on a coin in such of a picture perfect matter. IF there was a leaf coming out of the cow's nose or in the middle of the field then yes i would buy into the die chip theory. This coin is undoubtedly severely undervalued in my opinion and i do have more than my fair share stashed away, but since i only have so much to spend I havn't accumulated anymore in over a year, but again a US coin to come out of the MInt that was a deliberate act and only 20,000 and 15,000 (using your numbers) estimated to be out there from the popular state quarter series and available on ebay for around $100 in unc and even less for circ doesn't add up with me. These prices would seem to be more inline with what this coin would sell for if the Mint said we 100% know it was a die chip and collectors would say I'm willing to fork over $100 for a die chip coin that fits so prominently into the stalk. Here is analogy just think if the mInt said we are going to make 15,000 hawaii quarters and 20,000 alaska quarters and radomly release them in mint bags. How much would a quarter with a mintage this low sell for this low mintage? Probably $500 and up and in essence the MInt did release a state quarter with a mintage 15,000 and 20,000 and although this was unofficially done it is irrelevant since this did come from the US Mint and the fact that it was unofficially done gives this coin a nice story behind it which is what is needed for any famous error. Whether the est mintage is 35,000, 40,000, or 50,000 I don't think collectors care one way or another, it is not like some are claiming 10,000 and others 100,000, but it appears everyone seems to be in the same ballpark.
The leafs are great errors and at this point all we can hope for is that maybe the culprit will confess on his death bed one day wanting to have his name go down in history of coin collecting.
Errors in recent years have been non-existent at the Mint as technology has improved dramatically. I'm talking errors on a large scale and not a coin struck on another planchet or a clipped coin. What, 1955 was the last the time and it took more than 50 years to get another error on a significant scale. My point is, although the possibility exists of another large batch of smooth edges or double edges to escape the Mint don't expect it. I was apprehensive of initially going too much in with the adam's doubles and smoothies thinking what happens if there is a batch of double and smooth edges for each president, won't this create saturation and thus drive prices down? Well 5 presidents have come and gone since jefferson and no more errors, and again with the production process now fully integrated and the Mint's superb quality control track record in recent years, I'm confident we have seen the last of presidential errors and as we go through the series and collectors and investors begin to see that errors aren't going to pop up with each president I think this will only help push up prices.
Ericj96, I have to run, but i'll be back tonight to try and answer some of your questions.
<< <i>1955 was the last the time and it took more than 50 years to get another error on a significant scale. My point is, although the possibility exists of another large batch of smooth edges or double edges to escape the Mint don't expect it. ... I'm confident we have seen the last of presidential errors and as we go through the series and collectors and investors begin to see that errors aren't going to pop up with each president I think this will only help push up prices. >>
I saw this as an opportunity (similar to the 1955 DDO) and bought two rolls of Washingtons (still stuck with them). When the Mint goofed again with Adams, I lost interest in any Prez errors. I hope your faith in the US Mint is well-founded; time will tell.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
Two are more recent:
1972 doubled die obverse cent
1995 doubled die obverse cent
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I would not put it beyond the realm of possibility that someone, somewhere finds a full $1,000 box or two of smoothie Adams coins. Once that occurs, prices will nosedive.
The biggest difference between moderns and classics is that a very high portion of the classic coinage has been long gone through attrition and silver meltings whereas a very high portion of the presidential coins have never seen the light of day.
The name is LEE!
As for the Adam's smooth edges that is not a big concern of mine and here's why. First, these were found in my own backyard and for about 2 months after they were found I attended many weekly shows and bs'd with finders of these coins. One of the largest if not thee largest finders of these coins found about 4000 doubles and only about 150 smooth edges and this high ratio of smooth edges to doubles was experienced by everyone else. The consensus seemed to be about 1 to 2 smooth edges per roll when you were lucky enough to find a hot box with smooth edges in them. Now even if a couple of boxes are still laying around with adam's smooth edges you would only expect about 50 or 60 to be in that box. It would take about 15 to 20 unopened boxes to get another 1000 into the total mintage. Is it possible unopened boxes still exist with smooth edges? Absolutley, anytihng is possible, but here is what I know. First, at the end of the treasure hunt or about 6 weeks after the release date about 90% of the banks only had D rolls and they were all out of P rolls. Obviously, the armor car companies were bringing in D rolls because they were out of P rolls and here in Michigan all we normally get is P rolls for any denomination, the fact that they had to bring in D rolls tells me that the regional federal reserve branch was all out of P's and had to bring in D's or in other words the batch that the errors were in had also been depleted.
These adam's errors were undoubtedly isolated to a single batch since they were only found in an isolated area and at isolated banks. I vision a bin with 40,000 double edges in them allong with 8,000 smooth edges and this bin obviously only went to the metro detroit area. Now if these had shown up all over the country and these errors were periodically missing the edge inscription process and going through the process twice then I would be more cautious on more errors coming out, but since the evidence points to a single bin and the fact that this single bin went to detroit only coupled with the fact that every bank and its brother was probably calling the armored car company or the distributor to get more boxes from this batch tells me everything has made its way into circulation. Furthermore, is anyone really sitting on an unopened box of adam's rolls in detroit that is a collector and waiting to open these one day with their grandkids, but in the mean time they are wondering if there are 150 double edges or 50 smooth edges in that box? Possible, yes, but highly unlikely, I believe there are grandparents or others who bought rolls for grandkids or others who are sitting on error rolls here and there, but nothing significant.
I personally did go out and search for these in late 2007 just to see if any were still out there. I called every bank and credit union in metro detroit and although some still had adams rolls they were either D rolls or non-error rolls. Is it still possible that a bank has a few error rolls in the vault that they are unaware of, yes anything is possible. Saturation is always a concern just like that is my biggest concern about buying a jefferson smooth edge. I fork over a few thousand and 3 months later another 300 show up in the pcgs reports. YOur point about older stuff being melted down is a valid one and older coins are therefore less susceptible to having more valuable ones show up, but with the adam's the evidence points to a single batch and I can't see how 80% of this batch made it to the open market and the rest didn't. Furthermore, if these had been found where there were 500 or 600 in a single box and only 10 or 15 boxes were found then this would really be a concern of mine that more might show up and saturate the market. All evidence points to 50 to 60 per box and even if one did assume that there are still 20 boxes out there with adam's smooth edges this might bring the est mintage up 1000 from 8000 to 9000, either way still a relatively small number for the coin collecting world. I also frequently watch ebay for these adam's smooth edges and I only saw 2 sellers unload significant quantities in the last year and I emailed both sellers a while back to see if they wanted to sell anymore and both had no more. One seller dumped over 100 in about a two month period (madog something was his user id) and this did drive prices down for a little bit, but they have since recovered. I believe there are still finders here and there sitting on a handul or more of these, but everyone I talked to who found these smooth edges couldn't resist dumping them for around $500 each when they first discovered these. Prices have held up really well and I would assume that anyone who was in these for the quick buck would have sold out buy now since prices have held up very well and there has been ample time to dump these coins in the hundreds for what they only paid $1 for. It will be interesting to see where the pcgs and ngc pop reports are for this coin next year and for obvious reasons we should have better idea what is really out there as each year goes by.
So, it is with caution that I acquire any coin. The new presidentials will be the same as the statehood quarters. Errors and anomalies always are a driving force in people trying to get rich quick. Just be cautious and do not OVERPAY for your collectibles if they are modern issues. It won't leave you any discretionary income for the classics, where we all eventually find ourselves. That's my advice to anyone.
<< <i>I'm a big fan of these and therefore a little biased, but if you have been debating whether or not to get one let me give you some facts. First, estimated mintage is around 7,000 to 8,000 and when compared to other recent major mint errors this is extremely small. THe Washington Smooth edge is estimated to be 150,000 plus, the wisconsin leafs 40,000 plus, and the adam's double edges 40,000 plus. Better yet, compare this coin to the 55 double die with 24,000 estimated, the 37 legged buffalo with 20,000 estimated and you have something special here. PCGS and NGC have graded a combined total of about 4,000 and I've closely watched the number graded in the last year and the total number graded increases about 4 or 5 per week and this number has been steadily decreasing each month. This is the one error coin that is actually going up on ebay in recent months as opposed to going down like alot of mint errors from the turn in the economy. A ngc 65 just sold for $700 and most sellers are asking high prices for these coins realizing their scarcity and not willing to take less than a good price. Finally, unlike the washington smooth edges and the wisconsin leafs which always has sellers selling hoards of them on ebay, there appears to be no sellers on ebay for the adam's smooth edges that are selling quantities which is a good thing for long term price appreciation. I live in Michigan where these were found and attend all coin shows and i can tell you finders of the double edges who found hundreds or thousands of double edges hardly found any adam's smooth edges, so I personally know how scarce these are. I have a few of these stashed away and I honestly believe this coin will see significant price appreciation in the coming years with limited supply, no new edge errors coming out of the mint anymore since the jefferson smooth edge, and the Mint changing the edge format starting next month. >>
YOU DA MAN PACKERS88!!!!!!!
Excellent post.
I am holding onto my sooth edge washington for certain but in all honesty, I just cant find it in my interest to pull the trigger on other smooth edge coins.
I just like the idea of having the pres buck that started the storm as it were.
I do hope that the 2010 Red Book has a tad more info on populations and would also like it if they would give this an attribute in their error section.
Oh well.
Anybody know if this is going to happen??
If you are just a collector then a Washington Smooth Edge is perfectly fine, regardless of mintage I see this coin having little downside risk and nice upside potential. From an investment standpoint, I would rather be in Adam's smooth edges just because I think if prices go up there are few if any hoarders that would be there to dump alot on the market and again I like the idea of an error coin having an est mintage of around 8,000 when compared to other famous errors like the 37 legged and 55 dd that are est to be around 20,000 and 24,000.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Don't do this at home folks, these are professional!
More! Please! More!
Get em while you can since its estimated there's only 7 or 8 thousand.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>Looks like you can add Monroe dollar to the list. >>
Whoops! And Satin Finish at that.....................
The name is LEE!