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Proof Gold Eagles (1/10, 1/4, & 1/2) Aren't these going to be obvious winners?
BacknBlack
Posts: 49
Proof Gold Eagles (1/10, 1/4, & 1/2) Aren't these going to be obvious winners? I think this years series keys are sleeping because in the history of this series there have been no real keys and therefore no financial winners. I could see this issue growing steadily in value for the following reasons... 1. GOLD: Struck in the most popular medal, 2. PROOF: Struck in the most attractive format, 3. POPULAR: Long running series with a large collector base, 4. DRAMATIC KEYS: Mintage figures dramatically lower than any other year. 5. WIDE DISTRIBUTION- They have not been bought up in quantity by "flippers". Therefore, there will not be much of an overhang of supply after the sell-out. The first issue to sell out was the only non-king of the group (1 oz) indicative of purchasing by non flippers. I think the collector base/ flippers are sleeping on these because of all of the other opportunities this year (as well as being financially tapped out during a recession/ depression). These issues appear to be KINGS by a wide margin and I expect the pricing pattern will act accordingly. Many will argue that the UNC versions will perform better. I think they're wrong. Here's why... 1. MINTAGE may NOT be low: They may be struck in quantities much higher than the current sales figures indicate. None of the issues have sold out and therefore there is no indication of where production levels may lie. If these were minted at a ratio of .6 to the proofs (a common relationship) then the ultimate mintages will be low, but not low enough. The prior series issues have no material premium and were struck in small quantities. 2. SMALL COLLECTOR BASE: The collector base for the UNC strike is small and demand is therefore low. 3. UNCIRCULATED STRIKING: The finish is less impressive than the proofs and they look like the common bullion variety in finish and design. Food for thought...
"There's no free lunch" MF
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We'll all find out!
2008 will be the keys but how many people are collecting complete sets of gold proofs?
Likely less collectors than the number of 2008 proofs produced.
Thats the point. There was never an obvious key. Two of this years issues appear to have mintages of approximately 15,000. This is a vey low number for a gold proof coin at this price point. Before 2004, the plat proof series did not have an obvious key and these are more obvious. Platinum proof coin sales rose after 2004 and I expect that the proof gold numbers will likely rise as well, but more dramatically for two reasons. For one, these coins were short struck due to planchet shortages (this is unusual). Because the mint has eliminated most fractional issues for the future they will likely not run into that problem again. Secondly, because the mint will have substantially less products next year there are likely to be more sales than normal, assuming a normal production run.
2008 will be the keys but how many people are collecting complete sets of gold proofs?
Based on the average sale numbers it appears that a lot of people buy/ collect these coins every year. This years coins were short struck. Supply/ demand will take over.
Likely less collectors than the number of 2008 proofs produced.
This is no different than in 2004 with the proof platinum set. That set took over a year before it began to appreciate. This issue appears to be sleeping just like that issue did. The 04 PF plat set went up fourfold from issue price. Did someone say sleeper?
TextTextText
I feel that the AGE ends in 2010.
2009 is the year of the celebratory high relief $20 coin.
2010 is the last year according to current legislation.
2011 will tell the tale.
We shall all see.
Just my thought and feeling. Not necessarily fact but that 's what my gut tells me.
I know 2010 is the year of the last liberty spouse coin.
Unless something changes I will no longer be buying from the mint.
I am turning my sights back to the original idea of collecting coins from circulation. Pre 1964.
Happy Thursday to all.
For me unless there us a new coin I will always buy a set of the AGE an some ASE for the children.
To make the assumption that the proof collector base in AGEs is larger than the uncirculated collector base is probably invalid. We can make educated guesses, but that falls far short of scientific criteria. IMHO it seems that there is probably a larger uncirculated collector base than the proof collector base.
Speaking for the six of us who collect and trade between ourselves, we all have a couple of the proof sets, but the ones we focus on are the uncirculated sets. Maybe we are just the oddballs.
I do not consider 25K mintage a small quantity but it is nice to own a complete set of 22 or 24 AGE 1oz proof (24 if the series ends in 2010) for an average cost of about $19,200 ($800 each x 24 = $19,200). Where else can a collector get a complete run of big, heavy, beautiful cameo proof gold coins for less than 20K.
I regret that I did not get the coin from the Mint each year. I bought a few in the early 90s for $320 each and sold them a few years after. I only got back to collecting AGE since the introduction of the limited quantity 20th Anniversary set. I have to admit that every now and then, when holding the big gold coin in my hand, I begin to appreciate its beauty more and more.
I agree with Rarity that a complete collection of the big one-ounce proofs is really nice. I have a set and I really enjoy them.
The one thing about the proofs is that there isn't any one single year that is not readily available, and the cost is about the same for each year, because they are probably all PR-68 or better, with most being PR-69.
This is not so with the uncirculated AGEs. A lot of the earlier AGEs have been carted around, dropped, kicked, and stepped on by investors interested in the gold content and nothing more. To find the MS-69 in that roll at the local B&M shop is not all that easy today. I have looked in a number of those rolls and it seems that they are becoming more and more into the MS-64/MS-65 range. Still a nice looking coin, but nothing when compared to the proof coins that have been handled with kid gloves since purchase.
Just curious - what is the best known lowest possible mintage now for these 2008 proof Gold coins. Does anyone have that information handy?
Wondercoin
<< <i>If you are speaking about 2008 dated coins - I can only tell you why I have not bought any (yet). The 1/10 oz and 1/4 oz coins are selling for between $1,200 - $1,600/oz. at the US Mint site. I am not interested in paying $1,200 - $1,600/oz for this year's proof gold. Previous year(s) proof gold are available for roughly $1,100/oz - $1,150/oz. now. I would rather buy earlier year coins such as 1991, 1993, 1997, 1998, 1998 or 2001, to name a few, at around $1,125/oz than "this year's model" coins at $1,200 - $1,600/oz. at this moment. Plain and simple.
Just curious - what is the best known lowest possible mintage now for these 2008 proof Gold coins. Does anyone have that information handy?
Wondercoin >>
Brandon, you may want to know the sales figures and previous mintages before speaking too soon.
Wondercoin
I needed an excuse for cancelling the few single proof 1/10ths I placed orders for yesterday.
I just don't feel the love with these coins like I did with the buffs.
I really wanted to but I feel it's like bringing a "nice-looking" girl home from the bar and then you wake up with her in the morning and she's a really a dog.
Wondercoin
Wondercoin
Scroll down to Oct. 6/7
edited to add: There's alot of additional info, particularly for the month of Nov. in the above link and this thread is scattered with facts & theories.
edited again to add: the Nov. news link. It's oozing with neat stuff, particularly the Nov. 10th & 25th entries.
Their success really depends on the collector base -- if there are large numbers of people collecting these by year, they could do well. But I'm not sure that there ARE 15,000+ collectors collecting these by year -- if there were, it's just not clear why they wouldn't have bought through December while these were available. The issue price is a sizeable premium to melt. Unlike the platinums, which have a changing reverse which makes each year its own type coin, the gold coins have the same design year in and year out. This works for the ASEs, I think, because there is only the 1 ounce coin instead of 4 denominations, and the $30 or so price makes an annual purchase within the grasp of almost every collector.
A collector driven by low mintages has had many, better options this year -- certainly the 1 year denominational buffalos and any of the platinums. The buffalos are lower mintage, a one year type, and a design with that is appealing to a large base. The platinums, while a smaller collector base, have the type coin advantage AND the advantage of being sold in November at a price of about 1200/oz. --higher than current spot, yes, but well under the recent high. The platinums have 2 ways to "succeed" if one defines success as eventually selling for a higher than issue price, either through numismatic demand, or a rebound of platinum to 1200+. The AGEs, are being sold at a price which is significantly higher than gold bullion has ever reached. Sure, gold could go to 1200+, but on the bullion side, I'd rather speculate on platinum returning to 60% of its recent high than on gold reaching 125% of its recent high.
Anyway, I think the success of the proof AGEs really depends on how many hard core collectors exist. I don't expect big things from them; my expectation is that they will tread water, probably not go up or down significantly from issue price. The uncirculated AGEs MIGHT be different IF the mintages stay low. If sales close under 6,000 or so, they might do well. Since none of us know where those will close, it remains a speculative play. Might make sense to buy a set as insurance, but I wouldn't go heavy on them.
I still like the upside on a few recent offerings, including the 2008 platinum proofs and the gold buffalos. The platinum proofs because (1) the Mint is supposed to discontinue the series (2) they are significantly lower than any other year in the series (3) they have different designs each year, so each year is its own type coin and (4) the prior "kings", 2004, showed and held significant numismatic premium to melt with mintages almost twice the 2008s. 2008 platinum proofs are still on the secondary market for much less than 2004 proofs have recently sold for.
The gold buffalos because there is just a huge collector base for buffalo coins. The buffalo nickel collectors like them. Gold collectors like them. They're a one year type (at least with the fractionals). Look at how the buffalo $1, with a BIG mintage, has held up -- it's a good sign that the buffalo golds have good potential upside from here.
What the heck it's only money.
<< <i>I and someone I know purchased a large quantity of these well before they went back order. They were "in stock and reserved". Today, we received over 1,000 canceled orders. The sales figures appear to overstate the mintage by a large amount. My orders were place when the sales figures were at least 30- 40% less. Therefore, the final mintages should be much lower than the current sales report. Did any one else get massive cancellations? >>
Over 1000 canceled orders? Ya know you can enter multiples of 1 in the order box...
<< <i>
<< <i>I and someone I know purchased a large quantity of these well before they went back order. They were "in stock and reserved". Today, we received over 1,000 canceled orders. The sales figures appear to overstate the mintage by a large amount. My orders were place when the sales figures were at least 30- 40% less. Therefore, the final mintages should be much lower than the current sales report. Did any one else get massive cancellations? >>
Over 1000 canceled orders? Ya know you can enter multiples of 1 in the order box...
I would like to have your order tracking software, just receiving and keeping track of the thousands of orders is a full time job.
San Diego, CA
<< <i>I and someone I know purchased a large quantity of these well before they went back order. They were "in stock and reserved". Today, we received over 1,000 canceled orders. The sales figures appear to overstate the mintage by a large amount. My orders were place when the sales figures were at least 30- 40% less. Therefore, the final mintages should be much lower than the current sales report. Did any one else get massive cancellations? >>
But wouldn't orders placed this week also be cancelled? Mine are still backordered. Well, I guess with the state of the Mint's ordering system right now, who knows what's really happening.
<< <i>History shows little premium for past non error/special edition gold proof keys.
2008 will be the keys but how many people are collecting complete sets of gold proofs?
Likely less collectors than the number of 2008 proofs produced. >>
Totally agree with you and Grits.
I also think that the Uncs. are better looking. They are NOT the same as the business strikes, as the Unc. dies are burnished. I have a couple of sets of 08 Uncs. which I bought in Nov. They are really beautiful.
<< <i>I and someone I know purchased a large quantity of these well before they went back order. They were "in stock and reserved". Today, we received over 1,000 canceled orders. The sales figures appear to overstate the mintage by a large amount. My orders were place when the sales figures were at least 30- 40% less. Therefore, the final mintages should be much lower than the current sales report. Did any one else get massive cancellations? >>
I ordered two AGE Unc. 4 coin sets on 1/03 in two separate orders. They both show backorder w/expected delivery on 1/23.
Of course, the 4 coin APE proof set which I ordered on 12/8 shows backorder w/delivery on 1/23 and I doubt I'll ever see it (sure hope that I will!), so who knows.
Every where I look I see ads for BUYING gold, silver, gems. etc,.
No selling just buying.
Whats up?