If I have to sell to buy, I'm on the sidelines looking on with (jealous) interest.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
Collectors do not play the "market", they collect coins.
No long term collector is really interested in selling his coins, just because they are worth more than they were purchased for.
There are investors and speculators that do trade coins as a function of profit and those are the ones that are "dumping" their coins, perhaps.
PNG member, numismatic dealer since 1965. Operates a retail store, also has exhibited at over 1000 shows. I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
<< <i>Collectors do not play the "market", they collect coins.
No long term collector is really interested in selling his coins, just because they are worth more than they were purchased for.
There are investors and speculators that do trade coins as a function of profit and those are the ones that are "dumping" their coins, perhaps. >>
I agree with you Julian, but it sure seems like most folks have a totally different view of the world. >>
I disagree in one respect - we are all charged with ensuring our own financial future. It's certainly possible to have one's coin collection become too big a part of one's net worth ... in which case even a die hard collector has to consider pruning.
Fortunately, even in bad times, the coin market doesn't "crash" per se. Certainly not like the stock market, or anything else of that magnitude. Prices may gradually drift lower, but at least you don't have to worry about all of your wealth being wiped out due to a sudden wave of "panic selling." With the possible exception of bullion / precious metals, the coin market is inherently non-volatile.
<< <i>Fortunately, even in bad times, the coin market doesn't "crash" per se. Certainly not like the stock market, or anything else of that magnitude. >>
You clearly have not studied the coin market very much or been around for the last 20 years.
<< <i>Fortunately, even in bad times, the coin market doesn't "crash" per se. Certainly not like the stock market, or anything else of that magnitude. Prices may gradually drift lower, but at least you don't have to worry about all of your wealth being wiped out due to a sudden wave of "panic selling." With the possible exception of bullion / precious metals, the coin market is inherently non-volatile. >>
You haven't been collecting long have you? From it's 80's peak it crashed every bit as hard though the 90's as the stock market. But hey I'm a collector let the crashing begin I need to complete my sets.
ALL collectibles are taking a hit. We are entering a depression. A global one. More pruning is being done by heavy hitters.
Precious metal bull market would be supportive of numismatic coins but the B&M dealers who can't even GET bullion have lost a lot of potential profit.
And don't think a collector market can't ABSOLUTELY crash. I used to deal in antique toys and they are as cold as a fish and have been now for 10 years.
The money that has flowed to coins has flowed from general economic activity. That is coming to (or HAS come to) a HALT!
Deflation mentality is taking over. Wait and see. Wait for cheaper. It's endemic now and will be a LONG time in remedy, if at all without a currency workover.
I began selling my "iffy" and better (pricier) coins a year or so ago. Did some swaps on bullion which is INTRINSICALLY valued.
Major rarities will PROBABLY stay in hiding for the duration. But the deflationary scenario unfolding will hit all areas of the economy and the entire globe.
I will predict the worst economic debacle in modern history.
But.... I am still "collecting." Gone are my lower grade keys and some mid level BETTER stuff like some proof gold and all Morgans. I'm not in the league of the BIG SPENDERS, but I am becoming so choosy as to be ridiculous. All there or NOT there....no "tweeners."
My last 4 figure coin I got was in a SWAP. I wanted the coin, but would NOT have bought it for rare CASH.
Cash will be king for a few years.
I'm also holding my bullion which eclipsed the collection AND the house. (actually a FEW houses) Just as insurance.
Some major collections will be pruned and cut.
Especially condition rarity. And especially condition rarity in not-so-hard-to-get design series.
The other factor is the aging of the collector base. Few new collectors will be able to afford 6 figure coins EVER.
I was at the local dealer today and have NEVER seen so many people in his shop (20+ people). Unfortunetly most were selling, not buying. The owner informed me he has been seeing a lot of collectors selling and few buying.
In a downturn, I'd expect the best coins would go into hiding waiting a better opportunity, but the middle tier stuff would be plentiful. I'm good with that (not that I wish a loss on anyone else).
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
That's more a function of some of the sellers not realizing that the market has softened, and not so much an indication of a lack of interest. That may sound obvious, but the fact that the coins didn't sell doesn't really say all that much about where the market is. It only tells us that the market is down "some amount". If you want to know what's really going on, look at the prices at which coins are actually selling.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
was at the local dealer today and have NEVER seen so many people in his shop (20+ people). Unfortunetly most were selling, not buying. The owner informed me he has been seeing a lot of collectors selling and few buying.
Just the opposite of what I see at all the local shops within 50 miles of me. The only people selling are bringing in modern mint and proof sets, bullion, scrap silverware, watches, jewelry, and generally very common stuff. I don't see choice coins worth $100 or more showing up. I check with these guys weekly and you're lucky if a single MS Barber dime or an XF seated half shows up between all of them. The shops have been dry as a bone througout 2008. Nothing of scarcity or quality showing up. If people are bailing out, they have a funny way of showing it. When I do see a crowd of a few people they are invariably buying bullion. None of the shops can keep up with the demand. I looked through a group of MS/PF 19th century type recently and happily paid 15% over bid for some nice pieces. The majority of the good stuff was priced so high as to be unbuyable. I didn't see any panic in that dealer's face.
Under current conditions collectors should be cautious when consigning coins to a dealer. You better make sure you will get paid or at least be able to get your coins back if they don't sell.
Very true. I took a major hit in similar conditions in the 1990's. I'd not recommend the consignment route unless you do some serious due diligence.
One other point I forgot to mention that is different though, is nobody is buying locally here, very slow on the sales end for anything. This latest week saw a surge for gift type stuff like proof sets, 08 eagles, etc. but thats about all.
For the past three months a company going by the name Gemco has been taking out Very large ads that fill 3 full pages in the Phoenix Arizona Republic wanting to
buy all collector coins, currency, gold, silver, etc.. They set up for three days at a large hotel or convention center
and buy, buy, buy. Good to see such aggressive purchasing activity during this time, but what are they doing with all of it?
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
<< <i>For the past three months a company going by the name Gemco has been taking out Very large ads that fill 3 full pages in the Phoenix Arizona Republic wanting to
buy all collector coins, currency, gold, silver, etc.. They set up for three days at a large hotel or convention center
and buy, buy, buy. Good to see such aggressive purchasing activity during this time, but what are they doing with all of it? >>
<< <i>For the past three months a company going by the name Gemco has been taking out Very large ads that fill 3 full pages in the Phoenix Arizona Republic wanting to
buy all collector coins, currency, gold, silver, etc.. They set up for three days at a large hotel or convention center
and buy, buy, buy. Good to see such aggressive purchasing activity during this time, but what are they doing with all of it? >>
Buying at 30% under melt and melting. >>
It's more like buying at 30% of melt.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Comments
If I have to sell to buy, I'm on the sidelines looking on with (jealous) interest.
No long term collector is really interested in selling his coins, just because they are worth more than they were purchased for.
There are investors and speculators that do trade coins as a function of profit and those are the ones that are "dumping" their coins, perhaps.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
eBaystore
<< <i>Collectors do not play the "market", they collect coins.
No long term collector is really interested in selling his coins, just because they are worth more than they were purchased for.
There are investors and speculators that do trade coins as a function of profit and those are the ones that are "dumping" their coins, perhaps. >>
I agree with you Julian, but it sure seems like most folks have a totally different view of the world.
<< <i>
<< <i>Collectors do not play the "market", they collect coins.
No long term collector is really interested in selling his coins, just because they are worth more than they were purchased for.
There are investors and speculators that do trade coins as a function of profit and those are the ones that are "dumping" their coins, perhaps. >>
I agree with you Julian, but it sure seems like most folks have a totally different view of the world. >>
I disagree in one respect - we are all charged with ensuring our own financial future. It's certainly possible to have one's coin collection become too big a part of one's net worth ... in which case even a die hard collector has to consider pruning.
<< <i>Fortunately, even in bad times, the coin market doesn't "crash" per se. Certainly not like the stock market, or anything else of that magnitude. >>
You clearly have not studied the coin market very much or been around for the last 20 years.
<< <i>Fortunately, even in bad times, the coin market doesn't "crash" per se. Certainly not like the stock market, or anything else of that magnitude. Prices may gradually drift lower, but at least you don't have to worry about all of your wealth being wiped out due to a sudden wave of "panic selling." With the possible exception of bullion / precious metals, the coin market is inherently non-volatile. >>
You haven't been collecting long have you? From it's 80's peak it crashed every bit as hard though the 90's as the stock market. But hey I'm a collector let the crashing begin I need to complete my sets.
POST
with little response.
ALL collectibles are taking a hit. We are entering a depression. A global one.
More pruning is being done by heavy hitters.
Precious metal bull market would be supportive of numismatic coins but the B&M dealers who can't even GET bullion have lost a lot of potential profit.
And don't think a collector market can't ABSOLUTELY crash. I used to deal in antique toys and they are as cold as a fish and have been now for 10 years.
Some "keeper" toys
The money that has flowed to coins has flowed from general economic activity. That is coming to (or HAS come to) a HALT!
Deflation mentality is taking over. Wait and see. Wait for cheaper. It's endemic now and will be a LONG time in remedy, if at all without a currency workover.
I began selling my "iffy" and better (pricier) coins a year or so ago. Did some swaps on bullion which is INTRINSICALLY valued.
Major rarities will PROBABLY stay in hiding for the duration. But the deflationary scenario unfolding will hit all areas of the economy and the entire globe.
I will predict the worst economic debacle in modern history.
But.... I am still "collecting." Gone are my lower grade keys and some mid level BETTER stuff like some proof gold and all Morgans. I'm not in the league of the BIG SPENDERS, but I am becoming so choosy as to be ridiculous. All there or NOT there....no "tweeners."
My last 4 figure coin I got was in a SWAP. I wanted the coin, but would NOT have bought it for rare CASH.
Cash will be king for a few years.
I'm also holding my bullion which eclipsed the collection AND the house. (actually a FEW houses) Just as insurance.
Some major collections will be pruned and cut.
Especially condition rarity. And especially condition rarity in not-so-hard-to-get design series.
The other factor is the aging of the collector base. Few new collectors will be able to afford 6 figure coins EVER.
As I see it.
The owner informed me he has been seeing a lot of collectors selling and few buying.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
siliconvalleycoins.com
That's more a function of some of the sellers not realizing that the market has softened, and not so much an indication of a lack of interest. That may sound obvious, but the fact that the coins didn't sell doesn't really say all that much about where the market is. It only tells us that the market is down "some amount". If you want to know what's really going on, look at the prices at which coins are actually selling.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Just the opposite of what I see at all the local shops within 50 miles of me. The only people selling are bringing in modern mint and proof sets, bullion, scrap silverware, watches, jewelry, and generally very common stuff. I don't see choice coins worth $100 or more showing up. I check with these guys weekly and you're lucky if a single MS Barber dime or an XF seated half shows up between all of them. The shops have been dry as a bone througout 2008. Nothing of scarcity or quality showing up. If people are bailing out, they have a funny way of showing it. When I do see a crowd of a few people they are invariably buying bullion. None of the shops can keep up with the demand. I looked through a group of MS/PF 19th century type recently and happily paid 15% over bid for some nice pieces. The majority of the good stuff was priced so high as to be unbuyable. I didn't see any panic in that dealer's face.
Under current conditions collectors should be cautious when consigning coins to a dealer. You better make sure you will get paid or at least be able to get your coins back if they don't sell.
Very true. I took a major hit in similar conditions in the 1990's. I'd not recommend the consignment route unless you do some serious due diligence.
roadrunner
In my shop as well as the others around here stuff is coming in, but its mostly junk/ and or bullion. Nothing of any thing substantial collector wise.
buy all collector coins, currency, gold, silver, etc.. They set up for three days at a large hotel or convention center
and buy, buy, buy. Good to see such aggressive purchasing activity during this time, but what are they doing with all of it?
<< <i>For the past three months a company going by the name Gemco has been taking out Very large ads that fill 3 full pages in the Phoenix Arizona Republic wanting to
buy all collector coins, currency, gold, silver, etc.. They set up for three days at a large hotel or convention center
and buy, buy, buy. Good to see such aggressive purchasing activity during this time, but what are they doing with all of it? >>
Buying at 30% under melt and melting.
<< <i>
<< <i>For the past three months a company going by the name Gemco has been taking out Very large ads that fill 3 full pages in the Phoenix Arizona Republic wanting to
buy all collector coins, currency, gold, silver, etc.. They set up for three days at a large hotel or convention center
and buy, buy, buy. Good to see such aggressive purchasing activity during this time, but what are they doing with all of it? >>
Buying at 30% under melt and melting. >>
It's more like buying at 30% of melt.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire