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CW China Counterfeiting Cover Story...Follow Up in Latest CW
RichR
Posts: 3,984 ✭✭✭✭✭
OK...after reading the CW cover article on the widespread counterfeiting of many, if not all, series of older U.S. issues...how alarmed should we all be?
What particularly creeped me out was the fact that, generally speaking, it used to be primarily the key, high priced coins that were most likely to be faked...but here was this article indicating that all dates and grades were just as likely to be duplicated...with even a possibly higher level of expertise in replicating worn specimens.
As a collector who has assembled the bulk of his collection (all raw) between 3-20 years ago...a coin at a time at major NY area coin shows...and who doesn't usually buy on eBay...except for some very recent sold-out Mint issues...this story really scared the bejeezus out of me!
Yes...you try to examine all acquisitions backwards, forwards and sideways...but you're generally not able to weigh them in advance to determine if the metal might be off and you might be dealing with a "super fake"! And then there was the section of the story on the improving "quality" of faked slabs...if they can convincingly replicate major slabs...what then...goodbye hobby?!?
How high/low are the odds that these things are infiltrating U.S. shows?!?
Opinions welcome.
What particularly creeped me out was the fact that, generally speaking, it used to be primarily the key, high priced coins that were most likely to be faked...but here was this article indicating that all dates and grades were just as likely to be duplicated...with even a possibly higher level of expertise in replicating worn specimens.
As a collector who has assembled the bulk of his collection (all raw) between 3-20 years ago...a coin at a time at major NY area coin shows...and who doesn't usually buy on eBay...except for some very recent sold-out Mint issues...this story really scared the bejeezus out of me!
Yes...you try to examine all acquisitions backwards, forwards and sideways...but you're generally not able to weigh them in advance to determine if the metal might be off and you might be dealing with a "super fake"! And then there was the section of the story on the improving "quality" of faked slabs...if they can convincingly replicate major slabs...what then...goodbye hobby?!?
How high/low are the odds that these things are infiltrating U.S. shows?!?
Opinions welcome.
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Comments
Cameron Kiefer
Now some greedy, hateful, criminal that I've never met and will never meet has ripped that part of my identity out. Three years, maybe five years from now I fully expect I will no longer identify myself as a coin collector. And we have virtually no recourse. Our government can't or won't stop it, and their government appears to be aiding them.
And it's not just my identity--it's our collective identity as Americans and our shared history as western civilization. What history is there in a piece of worthless metal forged in a nameless factory in Shanghai last month?
They're stealing our identity as coin collectors, as Americans. I hate them.
--Severian the Lame
If there are deceiving counterfeits they will be found. People need to learn for themselves what is counterfeit.
Cameron Kiefer
My concern is that if too many average collectors start getting burned...it will damage the credibility of the entire hobby...you can't start having significant percentages of fakes floating around with a Buyer Beware attitude.
I know I couldn't detect a fake as a kid coming up. And if/when you start copying slabs...with super copies inside...then what? You crack it out and weigh it...or run a mass spestroscopy on it before plunking down a few hundred or thousand dollars...who would agree to that?
IMHO...it's only a matter of time before we're all negatively impacted by this...you can't run a healthy hobby for only a select few with the ingrained knowledge to know when they're not being defrauded...authenticity has to be assumed...not questioned.
A 15th generation fake coin, struck with the same amount of force on dies made from metallurgically correct iron on planchets made from metallurgically correct silver, gold, or copper as those used in the 18th century, produced by state-of-the-art computer-aided die making equipment and designed by experts with multiple examples of real coins studied for weeks or months with electron microscopes and digital imaging software.
And if they're that good at faking a coin, how difficult is it going to be to put that coin into a piece of clear plastic with a paper label that actually has the correct font and serif?
If by some miracle you're not fooled by that coin, as you're patting yourself on the back for detecting the "newest" 15th generation fake that you agonized over for several days at that big coin show in 2012, it won't matter because the 17th or 18th generation is already in your collection--you bought it a few months earlier and it slipped right past you.
A flawless fake coin in a flawless fake slab. Not bought from China, or on eBay, but bought at Bob's House of Coins in Houston or Chicago or Nashville. Multiply that by hundreds of thousands or millions of flawless fake coins in flawless fake slabs. Game over.
--Severian the Lame
<<A flawless fake coin in a flawless fake slab. Not bought from China, or on eBay, but bought at Bob's House of Coins in Houston or Chicago or Nashville. Multiply that by hundreds of thousands or millions of flawless fake coins in flawless fake slabs. Game over.>>
Couldn't have stated it better myself...and like I said...it scares the h*ll out of me! If buying slabs from reputable third-parties was the solution...fine...but that security blanket is now under attack...by people who don't have to fear the law...so unlike traditional counterfeiters...available time, resources and technology...are not even an issue!
Remember...these are the same people who are probably knocking out fake clothes, handbags and electronics that are hard to detect even today by their copyright holders!
This is getting bad...very bad...and it's going to seriously damage the hobby.
In fact...this may actually make RAW coins more valuable in the not-too-distant future than slabbed items...at least you can examine ALL sides of a raw coin AND weigh it...and maybe even scan it somehow...can't do that with a superbly faked slab.
As for the fear that this is being injecting into the "hobby", if you know your coins, you should be able to detect these. If you don;t want to spend the time or resources to educate yourself then perhaps a new hobby shpuld be considered. Say something with less possibility of counterfeiting such as classic comic books, or say sports cards.
Counterfeits exist for literally anything that has value or is a name brand and this has been occuring in third world countries for years, even decades! Its nothing new and the astute collector should arm himself with counterfeit detection knowledge especialy if you are spending serious money!
The name is LEE!
<< <i>I will also note the other current post this AM discussing the minutiae of detecting a fake PCGS coin and holder currently on eBay...the average (and even not so average) collector won't/can't make these types of snap decisions while under the heat and glare of a bourse with less than ideal gymnasium lighting...and add to that potentially authentic barcodes and cert. numbers...then what?
This is getting bad...very bad...and it's going to seriously damage the hobby.
In fact...this may actually make RAW coins more valuable in the not-too-distant future than slabbed items...at least you can examine ALL sides of a raw coin AND weigh it...and maybe even scan it somehow...can't do that with a superbly faked slab. >>
Hmmm. So you take your scanner with you to the bourse?
The name is LEE!
I think that's a pretty flippant attitude to say the least...considering that a pretty good percentage of an average dealer's income probably comes from novice (and usually young) collectors. And it's not just the keys being copied here...it now seems to be ALL dates and designs. People who get burned...or who feel the playing field isn't level...have a nasty tendancy of walking away and not coming back (just ask Wall Street post Tech and Real Estate Bubble).
Geez...the people on this board sometimes can't even agree on grades of authentic coins and now we're actually going to say that we all need to become as astute as Secret Service agents...assuming they'd even be able to detect these things!
And shall we even start to consider how much paper money of current or recent past designs is probably being copied in China these days!
So you reall...REALLY...believe that a fake coin and/or slab can't get by you? No way...no how...impossible?!?
With possibly the best technology on earth being brought to bear to produce the fake...it would never fool you?
That is what you're saying, right?
And you're serious?
of it. who will fake a half eagle and then lower the grade to vg08.. then fake slab it...
then sell it for a fraction of the price an AU goes for?
No fake coin to detect just a fake slab.
Desireability and hence their prices could be impacted by lack of cofidence in authenticity.
Many collectors are unable to detect the difference between a 69 and 70, could be good for raw coins.
Well that's the weird (and alarming) part of this story...they're actually focusing their efforts on making better lower grade, common date fakes...so that you can now buy a "circulated" complete "Dansco" album...which is also faked!!!
Real good stuff...
I knew things were getting bad...but this story REALLY hit home! Entire warehouses/factories full of fake coins...and like I said, time is on their side!
BS&T
Ebay: + <waitin'> NEG: Chameleoncoins
NonBST/Ebay:
WTB: Toners, BU Darkside, Sovs & 20 Mark, LMU/SMU Gold.
<< <i>well at least us circ strike collectors of lower grade coins will have an easier time
of it. who will fake a half eagle and then lower the grade to vg08.. then fake slab it...
then sell it for a fraction of the price an AU goes for? >>
The lowest grade I have seen so far is a xf45 1858-0 half dollar ~$120 coin. I dont like the idea of the genuine slabs much as you have no idea what the coin should look like wear wise but I guess most coins in them eventually wouldnt be something worth faking anyway.
<< <i>Shouldnt be alarmed if you learned how to detect counterfeits. The ANA has classes taught by autheticators at the grading services each year during the summer seminar and there are books that show in pictures the very obvious ones and altered coins.
Cameron Kiefer >>
Thank you, Cameron. People have been predicting the end of the hobby/field for decades as they learn of the existence of counterfeits. Fakes have been around as long as there have been coins.
Maybe the slab game will be over but not numismatics.
<< <i>I'm a little surprised by the Coin World Story as the photo's used have been around for a long time and I would think that at least some different photo's could be used.
As for the fear that this is being injecting into the "hobby", if you know your coins, you should be able to detect these. If you don;t want to spend the time or resources to educate yourself then perhaps a new hobby shpuld be considered. Say something with less possibility of counterfeiting such as classic comic books, or say sports cards.
Counterfeits exist for literally anything that has value or is a name brand and this has been occuring in third world countries for years, even decades! Its nothing new and the astute collector should arm himself with counterfeit detection knowledge especialy if you are spending serious money! >>
Exactly right.
<< <i><<well at least us circ strike collectors of lower grade coins will have an easier time of it. who will fake a half eagle and then lower the grade to vg08.. then fake slab it...then sell it for a fraction of the price an AU goes for?>>
Well that's the weird (and alarming) part of this story...they're actually focusing their efforts on making better lower grade, common date fakes...so that you can now buy a "circulated" complete "Dansco" album...which is also faked!!!
Real good stuff...
I knew things were getting bad...but this story REALLY hit home! Entire warehouses/factories full of fake coins...and like I said, time is on their side! >>
thanks for the info. i did not read the article. I was assuming AU-MS stuff. Not well worn dirty coins :-|
<< <i>I knew things were getting bad...but this story REALLY hit home! Entire warehouses/factories full of fake coins...and like I said, time is on their side! >>
Why? Because it was printed in COIN WORLD?
This story and the pictures used in the Coin World article have been floating around for a couple of years if not longer. I cannot find the original thread on it but those exact pictures were used.
There is a good defense against counterfeit coins and its called EDUCATION!
Yes, counterfeits exist! Educate yourself!
Spreading fear and panic does not induce education. It only creates fear and panic!
You want to protect the hobby? Educate yourself!
I'll say it again: "If you don't want to spend the time or resources to educate yourself then perhaps a new hobby should be considered."
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
<< <i>Shouldnt be alarmed if you learned how to detect counterfeits. The ANA has classes taught by autheticators at the grading services each year during the summer seminar and there are books that show in pictures the very obvious ones and altered coins.
Cameron Kiefer >>
Thank you, Cameron. People have been predicting the end of the hobby/field for decades as they learn of the existence of counterfeits. Fakes have been around as long as there have been coins. >>
Cnc lasers and cad havent been around that long thou
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Shouldnt be alarmed if you learned how to detect counterfeits. The ANA has classes taught by autheticators at the grading services each year during the summer seminar and there are books that show in pictures the very obvious ones and altered coins.
Cameron Kiefer >>
Thank you, Cameron. People have been predicting the end of the hobby/field for decades as they learn of the existence of counterfeits. Fakes have been around as long as there have been coins. >>
Cnc lasers and cad havent been around that long thou
i always think back to micro O morgans as proof that copies can be very deceptive and get
slabbed. If not for one person going above and beyond the call of duty they would still be
thought of as legit.
and this was done how many years and years ago?
There was alot of brain power there.
It took the experts in the field 40 years to prove that the counterfeits likely created by Ford were indeed counterfeits.
So, I work 12 hours a day in Radiology, spend 30 minutes casually a day on coins and I'm supposed to be expert enough to protect myself?? Get real.
Bottom line is, if you're spending serious money - buy certified coins from experts in the field.
<< <i>Recently sat in on the deliberations of the territorial experts at the ANA.
There was alot of brain power there.
It took the experts in the field 40 years to prove that the counterfeits likely created by Ford were indeed counterfeits.
So, I work 12 hours a day in Radiology, spend 30 minutes casually a day on coins and I'm supposed to be expert enough to protect myself?? Get real.
Bottom line is, if you're spending serious money - buy certified coins from experts in the field. >>
I agree 100% (with the excpetion that I spend 6 hours/day in radiology and 6 hours/day here on the forum).
Otherwise, I am in complete agreement.
So then what...people like us will be the sole survivors of a dying hobby...that's what (hello baseball cards...stamps...dead for other reasons, but you get the idea)! As real estate and equity bubbles prove...it only takes a few percentage point cut, along with a change in attitude, to turn a boom hobby/investment into a bust. That change in attitutude could come courtesy of a major news article...or ten...on widespread coin counterfeiting.
I'm just saying that I'm not feeling too secure in the knowledge that I'm going to be able to detect each and every fake with my poor little 10x or 15x loop for every hole I try to fill from this day forward.
<< <i>I agree 100% (with the excpetion that I spend 6 hours/day in radiology and 6 hours/day here on the forum).
Otherwise, I am in complete agreement. >>
I was going to say the same thing. I came to a realization earlier this year... not necessarilly about counterfeits, but about quality coins. I decided that buying something that had the potential to exist in huge, undiscovered numbers was not fiscally sound. Even a proclaimed rarity like a 1909 SVDB has the potential to exist in unopened rolls. I know of just such a roll in the Chicago area... bank wrapped with toned ends and all!!! These mint issues all have the potential to bear discovery pieces in sizeable numbers, enough to disturb values, but more importantly, they are also common enough that a few "mystery" pieces could show up on the scene and not set off any bells. Once I started buying pop 10 or pop 20, or even pop 1-2 coins, this all started wearing heavily on my conscience.
So I, being of sound mind, did what any conspiracy theroist would do: I sold them all! Now, I ONLY buy what I can readily recognize, or what the experts can either back up with provenance or many words of assurance backed up by what is plainly evident form the coin itself. Let's see them try and fake this Eliasberg:
But seriously, coin collecting is like a pyramid, and it can only survive with a solid base. I don't know how you got started, but I began as a child, collecting from circulation and coin shops. My eagerness to collect formed a base that not only supported the upper eschelons of numismatics at the time, but also supported the future me. If these high end fakes only serve to erode the base of collectors, then it is just no good for anybody... not even the Chinese.
Empty Nest Collection
The owner went on to say that his production costs for larger U.S. coins is about 50c each, and most of his business comes from the foreign eBay market. CW noted that his listing prices usually start very low, but he makes more of his income from shipping charges which is about $70. Of course, the shipping is non-refundable and exempt from eBay fees. The owner also added that he shouldn't be held responsible for the actions of his customers in the aftermarket.
Scary!
Chris
My idea was to create an anonymous provenance database that was shared by all the grading services. It would list the coin, the slab ID, and its current owner. Obviously anybody who participated in this would have a ownership alias with a password. Anytime a BST transaction was made the database would be updated. Email could be automatically generated to the real owner of an item if a transaction occurred with an item that person owned as a check of validity. There could be other capabilities that would be programmed in to make various functions labor-free.
This is just the outline of an idea, and although it seems airtight, I suspect the things that couldn't be programmed in (i.e, the labor of inputting the data, recording changes, updating, etc) would doom it. Maybe when the need becomes more acute it might become viable.
Just my .03CS
There may be better ones out there that I haven't seen, but of the ones I've seen, if you can't tell them apart, then you have no business collecting coins in the first place.
So far, nothing to worry about IMHO.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>I emailed an idea to help combat this to the PCGS guys and never heard back from them, so I'll throw it out here and see if it has any traction and/or validity. It was for slabbed coins only, but perhaps some variant of it would help with non-slabbed as well.
My idea was to create an anonymous provenance database that was shared by all the grading services. It would list the coin, the slab ID, and its current owner. Obviously anybody who participated in this would have a ownership alias with a password. Anytime a BST transaction was made the database would be updated. Email could be automatically generated to the real owner of an item if a transaction occurred with an item that person owned as a check of validity. There could be other capabilities that would be programmed in to make various functions labor-free.
This is just the outline of an idea, and although it seems airtight, I suspect the things that couldn't be programmed in (i.e, the labor of inputting the data, recording changes, updating, etc) would doom it. Maybe when the need becomes more acute it might become viable.
Just my .03CS
PCGS already has this in place and its called the registry. Each coin receives an individual and unique certification number. When someone tries to register a cert number that already belongs to someone else, the automatic email gets sent to the owner of record.
NGC would have to revamp their slab numbering system in order to do this.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
<< <i>I emailed an idea to help combat this to the PCGS guys and never heard back from them, so I'll throw it out here and see if it has any traction and/or validity. It was for slabbed coins only, but perhaps some variant of it would help with non-slabbed as well.
My idea was to create an anonymous provenance database that was shared by all the grading services. It would list the coin, the slab ID, and its current owner. Obviously anybody who participated in this would have a ownership alias with a password. Anytime a BST transaction was made the database would be updated. Email could be automatically generated to the real owner of an item if a transaction occurred with an item that person owned as a check of validity. There could be other capabilities that would be programmed in to make various functions labor-free.
This is just the outline of an idea, and although it seems airtight, I suspect the things that couldn't be programmed in (i.e, the labor of inputting the data, recording changes, updating, etc) would doom it. Maybe when the need becomes more acute it might become viable.
Just my .03CS
PCGS already has this in place and its called the registry. Each coin receives an individual and unique certification number. When someone tries to register a cert number that already belongs to someone else, the automatic email gets sent to the owner of record.
NGC would have to revamp their slab numbering system in order to do this. >>
I am aware of the registry. My idea is like the registry on steroids. I don't think the registry records the ownership history of a particular slab, which is what provenance means. As for NGC having a different slab numbering system, that is easy to take care of in a database. In addition, my idea would take care of crackouts and upgrades. It would have to cover all the grading services to be effective. I suspect this part of it would doom it since the different services seem to have no love lost between them.
Yeah, you can. A bad fake. That's why you can easily spot it. Because it's bad--get it? And that makes you feel confident you can spot a good fake? It doesn't work that way.
You can't spot a good fake because it's a good fake. Look at the Omega Saints as an example of what a driven couterfeiter can do--and that was years, maybe decades ago.
And you can't spot a good fake in a good fake slab because it could very well be in your collection now. Any coin bought within the last 3-5 years should be suspect, and EVERY coin going forward must be suspect.
Even if you're such an expert that the very finest fakes out there haven't gotten past you yet--they've gotten past or shortly will get past a vast number of collectors. And when that happens, there will be zero confidence in the market. The pool of potential buyers will dry up and blow away, demand will catastrophically crash and will likely never recover.
Unless drastic measures are taken.
I'd love to see some genuine leadership from the TGPs, the secret service, customs, even eBay.
--Severian the Lame
All of this is an issue but i do not think the world will end. Fakes have been around for a long time. As the chinese get better with the fakes, more info will be availible to help counter them. A nice big nuke delivered to the manufacting district would be a good start.
I read an article that stated the chinese could fake any item in 8 days or less. They even have Harry Potter books that do not even exist. LOL
You would think the US government could help to stop the flow of these goods. It would not even be difficult.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
And guess what...they DID manage to produce so called "Super Notes" that were virtually indistinguishable from the real thing. Fortunately, this happened late in the war and the notes, I believe, were dumped into a deep Austrian lake where in recent years some samples have actually been recovered.
And, if one believes some widely circulated rumors, the same goal may have been attempted (accomplished?) by North Korea in recent years involving U.S. notes (which I remind everyone COULDN'T BE COPIED because of their intricate designs, special paper and ink (yeah, right!)...possibly leading to the BEP's ever-changing designs in recent years.
So...you actually believe that with enough time, effort, manpower and technology....that factories in China won't be able to produce superior fakes in either worn or Unc. grades...plus plastic slabs? For God's sake, Business Week recently ran an article that China's now churning out fake microchips that are turning up in our weapons systems...and the DoD is having major problems detecting and screening them out...and these things can fit on the head of a pin!
We must make the best of it, learning can be fun (not work) it 's part of our interest/hobby so get the books and learn.
Still the best fakes could get past most of us so be careful.
These crooks can also counterfiet our paper money and the gov needs to do more. The 2 things (collector coins and currency) are similar. They need to nip it in the but by catching and punishing crooks. They need to tell their "trade partners" if they don't cooperate then no more trade with them.