FACT: 2008 Plats will start going black on Monday…..
FloridaBill
Posts: 896 ✭
Hi All,
Just a heads-up. In addition to all the reports of quantity buys on the 2008-W plats, I and a couple of friends have also been buying quantity of both the uncs and proofs. A lot of sets and a lot of fractionals. The biggest play is on the $10 uncs…we’re in for 570 pieces.
As mentioned previously, there is probably no one at the order center this weekend monitoring sales/availability. It is entirely possible that the $10 uncs, and possibly others, are already sold out and orders will be canceled or moved to wait list status on Monday.
The point is...if you want them, order now. Don't wait.
FloridaBill
Just a heads-up. In addition to all the reports of quantity buys on the 2008-W plats, I and a couple of friends have also been buying quantity of both the uncs and proofs. A lot of sets and a lot of fractionals. The biggest play is on the $10 uncs…we’re in for 570 pieces.
As mentioned previously, there is probably no one at the order center this weekend monitoring sales/availability. It is entirely possible that the $10 uncs, and possibly others, are already sold out and orders will be canceled or moved to wait list status on Monday.
The point is...if you want them, order now. Don't wait.
FloridaBill
0
Comments
by speculators?
<< <i>so in other words collector demand is miniscule and many are owned
by speculators? >>
B-I-N-G-O!
We have a winner!
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
<< <i>so in other words collector demand is miniscule and many are owned
by speculators? >>
B-I-N-G-O!
We have a winner! >>
Give these men a cigar! Got it in one
1-Dammit Boy Oct 14,2003
International Coins
"A work in progress"
Wayne
eBay registered name:
Hard_ Search (buyer/bidder, a small time seller)
e-mail: wayne.whatley@gmail.com
While not perfect, by any stretch of the imagination, I'm sure the automated sales system is linked to the inventory system. Thus, they don't sell what they don't have.
<< <i>so in other words collector demand is miniscule and many are owned
by speculators? >>
Speculator's money is as green as the collector's.. You gotta know when to hold'em and when to fold'em. Like musical chairs, you don't want to be the last one standing.
In the meantime, I plan to do what every good flipper does - return the ones that aren't 70 candidates.
After all, they are sending out coins that have been picked over already. There's no integrity on either end.
Just my two cents.
I knew it would happen.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Is the title on the thread a "FACT" yet, or still just idle speculation? >>
Looks like they're still available to me Tom!
I think this is speculation and nothing but speculation. On both aspects of the post!
The name is LEE!
<< <i>Frankly, I am considering cancelling my order. If platinum drops, I surely will.
In the meantime, I plan to do what every good flipper does - return the ones that aren't 70 candidates.
After all, they are sending out coins that have been picked over already. There's no integrity on either end.
Just my two cents. >>
Whatever you do, you must never, ever, ever, say the you are going to return a coin because you think it won't make an MS70!
Unless, of course, you are wearing your fireproof suit! In that case, have at it!
As for buying these to flip, that will only work for the MS/PR70's as MS69's are worth nothing more than bullion and folks on the secondary market aren''t looking to pay the highest possible price................they're looking for less than issue prices!
The name is LEE!
The fact is, we have no way of knowing how many the Mint has in stock.
The sales numbers before Friday on the 2008-w uncirculated 1/10 oz coins, including those issued as part of sets, were 1,165.
The 2006-w unc 1/10 oz coins mintage was 3,544 (I'm pretty sure the issue price at that time was higher than the current $135).
So we'd need an additional 2,379 sales to top the 2006 w numbers.
Florida Bill's published purchase accounts for 570, so that's still 1800 away from the 2006 w numbers.
I think his heart is in the right place- this isn't pump and dump. He sees opportunity, is trying to capitalize on it, and is sharing that information in good faith with the rest of us. Feel free to follow suit, or not.
The 2007 w coins sold 5,992 at an issue price of $190-$205 (repriced).
Now, I have no way of knowing what the Mint's plans are. Are they making more? Are they selling off whatever the initial run was? who knows.
If they are just selling whatever they initially made, these could end up with mintages above 2006 w numbers but lower than 2007 w.
Let's make an admittedly uneducated guess that the 2008 w uncirculateds come in with a total mintage of 5,000. If that were to happen, Florida Bill would probably be in decent shape; numbers like that should easily make them profitable even if the upside isn't a homerun. If they can be sold for $175 a pop, that would be a 30% upside. No one is going to retire on that, but it's not a bad position to be in.
The most recent 2007 w ebay sales on non-MS70 coins are about $190-200. A 2007 w MS69 FS coin sold for $199. Demand seems kind of ho-hum; there were 2 listings for a MS69 FS with a buy-it-now price of $229 that didn't sell. Those are sales in this lousy market, with a mintage approaching 6,000. Of course, these 2008 ws aren't going to be FS eligible. Grading time and expense would be an added headache.
Most of us know where we stand in this little subset of the hobby; some are pro-platinum/speculator cheerleaders, and others are anti-speculation/anti-platinum naysayers. Both sides have valid arguments.
No one knows what the Mint will do. No one knows what demand will be. No one knows what the population of platinum collectors is, or if any of them have money in their pockets to buy these on the secondary market. Platinum could continue to go down from here. The Mint might have made 10,000 of these. Do whatever you feel comfortable with.
<< <i>
<< <i>Frankly, I am considering cancelling my order. If platinum drops, I surely will.
In the meantime, I plan to do what every good flipper does - return the ones that aren't 70 candidates.
After all, they are sending out coins that have been picked over already. There's no integrity on either end.
Just my two cents. >>
As for buying these to flip, that will only work for the MS/PR70's as MS69's are worth nothing more than bullion and folks on the secondary market aren''t looking to pay the highest possible price................they're looking for less than issue prices! >>
Not so sure about that. Over the weekend I saw a multiple "Pre-Sale" of the 2008-w UNC 1/10 oz sell for $299. The guy dumped 4 of them pretty quick for a "more than double" home run. No 70's, no grades.... heck, he doesn't even have the coins yet.
Well, that's just someone taking advantage of imperfect information -- an ignorant buyer who isn't aware they are available at the Mint for much less.
Hoard the keys.
I remember reading something about that in Numismatic News at the time. Still, while I see a potential opportunity on the 2008 ws, I think the market has changed considerably since 2006, including watching the 2006 ws -- coins with mintages of 2,500-3,500 across the board -- deflate since then.
The 2006-w MS69 $10 coins were selling for over $700 at one point, with MS70 coins breaking $1000. This wasn't really irrational exuberance. Credit was readily available, and the mintage figures were so low as to be unprecedented in recent history.
Now, even if the numbers for 2008 are around 2006 levels, this is a much more cautious market, and the 2006 mintages, and price behavior, will give us a good basis for comparison.
The game keeps changing. I bought what I thought I needed when they first came on sale, thinking that it was best not to have to worry about getting returns. The coins that I received were nice, but not double the current market price nice!
Having the price plunge after the 30 day return period expired is also part of the game. Having the Mint stop accepting orders to re-price is part of the game.
But, having the Mint stop all ordering for 3 or 4 months and having huge speculative interest develop as a result is bogus. There's no reason for taking that long to reprice the product, except for promoting speculation. That's what really stinks. So, as long as the game keeps changing, it's only natural that we loyal customers keep our options open. We should be allowed to whore it up, if that's what the Mint is doing.
This might still be the lowest mintage year, and it might be true that this will become clear in the next 30 days. As it stands, there is some justification for buying platinum from the Mint as a bullion purchase with a numismatic twist, just like the old days.
But, in the face of potentially large bulk purchases by flippers who are getting a second look (after collectors have already been netted), there is a completely legit reason to return anything that's not 100% perfect, especially if bullion doesn't move up in the next few weeks.
The kicker is that platinum is still selling at a premium in the retail market, just like silver and gold. That being the case, the Mint's price is probably good (even though they have no clue) compared to other available investment platinum.
When it comes down to it, the best reason to buy the 2008 Plats now is simply as an investment in bullion platinum. If anything else develops, so much the better. But at this point, there's no better lesson to remember than the 2007 Anniversary Sets.
I knew it would happen.
I doubt the Mint is consciously promoting speculation or anything else. I think they are just incompetent and inefficient, and wouldn't read anything more into it than that. They simply don't give a damn about collectors or how their policies impact our market, and they don't need to, because (1) their paychecks don't depend on it and (2) they have a pure monopoly.
There's upside potential on these in 2 ways, as you note. First, if mintages end up low, as we suspect they may, there WILL be numismatic upside no matter what naysayers like fc think. Second, as a bullion play, they're priced at about $1200 an ounce. A 4 coin set has 2 ways to shine, both as a coin and as bullion. Now, I have no idea what platinum will do in the months to come. I wouldn't expect it to rebound to $1800 an ounce, and it certainly could drop to $400 an ounce from here. No guarantees on any of this, and I'm not in the business of making predictions.
Edited to add: Can't help but notice they posted this after the cancel boxes disappeared.
your comments about "credit being widely available" as support for the high prices attained immediately after sellout of 2006-W coins did not seem to have an impact on my sales,
as most of them were single coin sales for less than $1k. I dont think the reasoning holds true.....
the fact is that the purchases made by flippers may have been fueled by easy credit, sparking a quick sellout, but secondary sales were widely dispersed, not fueled at all by easy credit.
what matters in the 08-W unc scenario is the level at which 08-w uncs were produced, the high initial pricing and low sales numbers, followed by almost three months of "re-pricing", and the re-offering of remaining stock.
the key data is how many were produced in thier initial run of coins. IMO, I can't see initial production (2008-w unc's) of more than 60% of 2007-w unc levels, I may be wrong, but that would bring us below 2006-W unc mintages on all sizes.
Given the purchases of 08-W thenth ounce coins so far, july sales figures, etc. we have to be very close to sellout.
almost there, by tomorrow - UNAVAILABLE.
Low mintages does not guarantee huge demand. The 2006 MS Ws are a prime example. The 04 proof 69 $50 (the lowest mintage pf platinum to date) has fallen in price by almost half of what it was according to PCGS price guide. Mostly because of the fall in the price of the platinum bullion value.
This is my last year that I will collect platinum. I am happy with my (2006-2008) subset in $10 and $50 platinum proofs. Good luck to all who are buying. I hope the 2008s are headed for moon money but don't have my hopes up. I was collecting this series because I like the plats very much. Time to move onto another series, perhaps focusing on some classics.
Box of 20
<< <i>Classic pump and dump internet message board tactic >>
As stated in the original post, my intent was to give a heads-up to anyone here that wanted these coins. I have made connections with some good people on this board; I've also seen gripes about "speculators" buying up all the available mintage forcing the "true collectors" into buying at inflated prices on the secondary market. My own self interest would have been better served by NOT posting this information.
FloridaBill
Hoard the keys.
Wondercoin
<< <i>FB gave everyone on the boards a "heads up" or "last call" on these coins. And, while the coins may (or may not) never amount to anything, they may, on the other hand. turn out OK as well once the mint moves into 2009. I personally appreciated FB's posting and even made a slight adjustment to my own personal purchases as a consequence. Thanks FB.
OMG, it's a stampede........of sheep.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
I just placed an order for some of these, it says B/O on the front page, but on the actual submit order page it says not available.....order still went through ?
When I read his post, my personal reaction was to purchase some more coins quicker than anticipated. I also am aware of other groups who in aggregate bought several hundred tenth ounce coins beyond FloridaBill's numbers.
For weeks forum members have been saying that the information available from several sources was saying "2008-W UNC PLATS WILL BE RE-OFFERED" and that "ALL REMAINING STOCK WILL BE SOLD" and they would be drastically reduced in price. My personal guess was around 1300/oz, it seems to have come in around 1200/oz.
Although we can never be absolutely sure of what the USM will do, it's clear to me that whatever is left in inventory will be sold. IMO, that's it.
Ample fair warning was made to everyone on the boards to go and buy your coins if you want to participate. Yes, this is speculative and it involves risk, and it's entirely up to you what you want to do.
1) Black Tuesday
2) Black Wednesday
3) Black Thursday
4) Black Friday
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Off by a day......not bad FB