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some monthly silver observations
konsole
Posts: 788 ✭✭✭
analyzing the silver charts at kitco I made some observations about monthly prices from the years 1984 - 2007. Here is what I found...
NUMBER OF MONTHS THAT SAW YEARS HI:
JAN = 2
FEB = 6
MAR = 1
APR = 2
MAY = 1
JUN = 1
JUL = 3
AUG = 0
SEP = 1
OCT = 0
NOV = 2
DEC = 4
NUMBER OF MONTHS THAT SAW YEARS LO:
JAN = 2
FEB = 1
MAR = 2
APR = 2
MAY = 1
JUN = 1
JUL = 2
AUG = 1
SEP = 1
OCT = 1
NOV = 1
DEC = 9
- February had the most yearly highs, followed by December
- December had the most yearly lows by far, having the low for the year 9 times which is more then half of the years
- December is the most volatile month having the most yearly lows and the second most yearly highs.
- December only had 4 out of the 23 yearly highs but 3 of those yearly highs came in the last 5 years
- February's 6 yearly highs came in the 10 years from '90 - '00
- August and October had no yearly highs and only 1 yearly low each
any comments on all this?
NUMBER OF MONTHS THAT SAW YEARS HI:
JAN = 2
FEB = 6
MAR = 1
APR = 2
MAY = 1
JUN = 1
JUL = 3
AUG = 0
SEP = 1
OCT = 0
NOV = 2
DEC = 4
NUMBER OF MONTHS THAT SAW YEARS LO:
JAN = 2
FEB = 1
MAR = 2
APR = 2
MAY = 1
JUN = 1
JUL = 2
AUG = 1
SEP = 1
OCT = 1
NOV = 1
DEC = 9
- February had the most yearly highs, followed by December
- December had the most yearly lows by far, having the low for the year 9 times which is more then half of the years
- December is the most volatile month having the most yearly lows and the second most yearly highs.
- December only had 4 out of the 23 yearly highs but 3 of those yearly highs came in the last 5 years
- February's 6 yearly highs came in the 10 years from '90 - '00
- August and October had no yearly highs and only 1 yearly low each
any comments on all this?
0
Comments
Nice research though.. Thanks for the info
low... which is not unusual to have a deviant data point.
flip a coin 20 times. would you be shocked to find out heads won
15 out of 20 times and determine that heads happens more often
then tails?
of course not. flip it one million times and it will surely get closer
to 50/50.
i deduce, watson, that you cannot use that data in any meaningful way.
Fun stuff.
Historically, PM prices are event driven. That makes "looking back"
into time-blocks less useful; unless we look at what was happening
around us during those specific times.
yearly low average fell in December:
84, 85, 88, 90, 92, 94, 96, 98, 00 -was happening about every other year, even number years
yearly high average fell in December:
97, 03, 05, 06 -recent years
I've watched silver peak in early December only to crash 10 days or so before Christmas for many years now.
Late February is often a high point as well from my years of studying charts.
Never looked at them as a year's high or low, just the patterns and it used to be fairly predictable for the last 10 years.
All that changed last summer.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Considering the current situation, how much longer will it be meaningful to price silver (or anything else) in terms of "dollars"?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
looking for low grade t205's psa 1-2
Contrary to Sherlock's statement, silver and gold have followed a fairly defined seasonal trend over the past 25 years. Stocks have too.
Obviously Deadhorse and many other have used that to their advantage when trading. But I would agree that since manipulation went "over the top" following last summer, there may not be any discernable trends going forward. We're in a different financial world now, that's nothing like the 25 years that just preceded it.
roadrunner
<< <i> I deduce, Watson, that you cannot use that data in any meaningful way.
Contrary to Sherlock's statement, silver and gold have followed a fairly defined seasonal trend over the past 25 years. Stocks have too.
Obviously Deadhorse and many other have used that to their advantage when trading. But I would agree that since manipulation went "over the top" following last summer, there may not be any discernable trends going forward. We're in a different financial world now, that's nothing like the 25 years that just preceded it.
roadrunner >>
are we discussing seasonal trends or highs/lows of the year which are two different things?
trying to refute my answer by bringing up a somewhat related topic is futile.
<< <i>are we discussing seasonal trends or highs/lows of the year which are two different things?
trying to refute my answer by bringing up a somewhat related topic is futile. >>
I was more interested in yearly highs and lows when I first started analyzing the charts. Hopefully a time of the year that tends to have the years low can be the buy time, which then means the time of the year that tends to be the years high can be sell time. I can plan to have plenty of funds available when those low price months come around. I think its right though that from here on out analyzing charts may not be worth it.