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some monthly silver observations

konsolekonsole Posts: 795 ✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
analyzing the silver charts at kitco I made some observations about monthly prices from the years 1984 - 2007. Here is what I found...

NUMBER OF MONTHS THAT SAW YEARS HI:

JAN = 2
FEB = 6
MAR = 1
APR = 2
MAY = 1
JUN = 1
JUL = 3
AUG = 0
SEP = 1
OCT = 0
NOV = 2
DEC = 4

NUMBER OF MONTHS THAT SAW YEARS LO:

JAN = 2
FEB = 1
MAR = 2
APR = 2
MAY = 1
JUN = 1
JUL = 2
AUG = 1
SEP = 1
OCT = 1
NOV = 1
DEC = 9

- February had the most yearly highs, followed by December
- December had the most yearly lows by far, having the low for the year 9 times which is more then half of the years
- December is the most volatile month having the most yearly lows and the second most yearly highs.
- December only had 4 out of the 23 yearly highs but 3 of those yearly highs came in the last 5 years
- February's 6 yearly highs came in the 10 years from '90 - '00
- August and October had no yearly highs and only 1 yearly low each

any comments on all this?

Comments

  • cinman14cinman14 Posts: 2,489 ✭
    you have WAY too much time on your hands.....image

    Nice research though.. Thanks for the info
  • fcfc Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭
    the pattern seems almost random with an anomoly being the dec
    low... which is not unusual to have a deviant data point.

    flip a coin 20 times. would you be shocked to find out heads won
    15 out of 20 times and determine that heads happens more often
    then tails?

    of course not. flip it one million times and it will surely get closer
    to 50/50.

    i deduce, watson, that you cannot use that data in any meaningful way.
  • storm888storm888 Posts: 11,701 ✭✭✭


    Fun stuff.

    Historically, PM prices are event driven. That makes "looking back"
    into time-blocks less useful; unless we look at what was happening
    around us during those specific times.
    Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.
  • konsolekonsole Posts: 795 ✭✭✭
    I could probably come up with some more meaningful observations about the charts, these were just some of the most obvious. I would say though that there is some apparent trends going on with December like how it contains so many of the yearly lows, and just within the last few years it started to frequently have the yearly highs.

    yearly low average fell in December:
    84, 85, 88, 90, 92, 94, 96, 98, 00 -was happening about every other year, even number years

    yearly high average fell in December:
    97, 03, 05, 06 -recent years
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭
    No surprise here.

    I've watched silver peak in early December only to crash 10 days or so before Christmas for many years now.

    Late February is often a high point as well from my years of studying charts.

    Never looked at them as a year's high or low, just the patterns and it used to be fairly predictable for the last 10 years.

    All that changed last summer.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,016 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Considering the current situation, how much longer will it be meaningful to price silver (or anything else) in terms of "dollars"? image

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • benderbroethbenderbroeth Posts: 1,699 ✭✭
    so really what is it that makes the prices change? i noticed that right now silver is like $5 an oz. cheaper than it was say a few months ago is it due to the whole economic situation on wall street? will it go back up if they pass this $700 billion bailout?
    my t-205's


    looking for low grade t205's psa 1-2
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I deduce, Watson, that you cannot use that data in any meaningful way.

    Contrary to Sherlock's statement, silver and gold have followed a fairly defined seasonal trend over the past 25 years. Stocks have too.
    Obviously Deadhorse and many other have used that to their advantage when trading. But I would agree that since manipulation went "over the top" following last summer, there may not be any discernable trends going forward. We're in a different financial world now, that's nothing like the 25 years that just preceded it.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • fcfc Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭


    << <i> I deduce, Watson, that you cannot use that data in any meaningful way.

    Contrary to Sherlock's statement, silver and gold have followed a fairly defined seasonal trend over the past 25 years. Stocks have too.
    Obviously Deadhorse and many other have used that to their advantage when trading. But I would agree that since manipulation went "over the top" following last summer, there may not be any discernable trends going forward. We're in a different financial world now, that's nothing like the 25 years that just preceded it.

    roadrunner >>



    are we discussing seasonal trends or highs/lows of the year which are two different things?

    trying to refute my answer by bringing up a somewhat related topic is futile.
  • konsolekonsole Posts: 795 ✭✭✭


    << <i>are we discussing seasonal trends or highs/lows of the year which are two different things?

    trying to refute my answer by bringing up a somewhat related topic is futile. >>



    I was more interested in yearly highs and lows when I first started analyzing the charts. Hopefully a time of the year that tends to have the years low can be the buy time, which then means the time of the year that tends to be the years high can be sell time. I can plan to have plenty of funds available when those low price months come around. I think its right though that from here on out analyzing charts may not be worth it.
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