PCGS price guide, sometimes right, often 25% to 35% over priced?
SirAnthonyAC
Posts: 646
Hi,
Well, if any post is going to get me flamed I think it's going to be this one!
Sometimes, usually with the classics, rarer, or better dates, the PCGS price guide is correct, such as with this 1817 Large Cent EF40 (PCGS $175, actually selling for $183) 1817 PCGS EF40
However, it really seems that far more often the PCGS price guide is 25% to 35% over priced. I checked this out and 10 times out of 10 coins I randomly checked, I found the price listed for PCGS graded coins was over price compared to actual sales. Below are just three examples:
1883 O Morgan MS63(PCGS $49, actually selling for 30) 35% less
Link
1915 D Barber Half Fine 12 (PCGS $55, actual selling for $40) 25% less
Link
1912 Barber Half Extra Fine 40 (PCGS $175, actually selling for $130) 25% less
Link
Of course there will always be variables, market swings, "hot" coins, etc but...
Would it be a good thing or bad for the PCGS to include EBay completed auctions in their calculations? At this time they only include, what they call "significant auctions". Would it be a good thing for the price guide to better reflect actual sales or as the PCGS says "the average dealer asking prices for properly graded United States coins"?
From PCGS.com
WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN?
The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are the average dealer asking prices for properly graded United States coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Prices for the most actively traded coins are updated daily. Other issues are updated as needed. All prices are reviewed at least once a month.
Well, if any post is going to get me flamed I think it's going to be this one!
Sometimes, usually with the classics, rarer, or better dates, the PCGS price guide is correct, such as with this 1817 Large Cent EF40 (PCGS $175, actually selling for $183) 1817 PCGS EF40
However, it really seems that far more often the PCGS price guide is 25% to 35% over priced. I checked this out and 10 times out of 10 coins I randomly checked, I found the price listed for PCGS graded coins was over price compared to actual sales. Below are just three examples:
1883 O Morgan MS63(PCGS $49, actually selling for 30) 35% less
Link
1915 D Barber Half Fine 12 (PCGS $55, actual selling for $40) 25% less
Link
1912 Barber Half Extra Fine 40 (PCGS $175, actually selling for $130) 25% less
Link
Of course there will always be variables, market swings, "hot" coins, etc but...
Would it be a good thing or bad for the PCGS to include EBay completed auctions in their calculations? At this time they only include, what they call "significant auctions". Would it be a good thing for the price guide to better reflect actual sales or as the PCGS says "the average dealer asking prices for properly graded United States coins"?
From PCGS.com
WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN?
The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are the average dealer asking prices for properly graded United States coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Prices for the most actively traded coins are updated daily. Other issues are updated as needed. All prices are reviewed at least once a month.
0
Comments
It isn't rocket science folks, each and every guide is only that, a guide. Collectors are best off learning the typical prices for the coins they are interested in, the typical wholesale, retail, and auction price realized for the coins they are interested in collecting. Best to learn this before dropping big money.
/edit to add: the data would carry more weight if it was a median price of 100 coins sold, citing one coin doesn't give much confidence.
ebay search
Your link is one of the lowest prices realized. More typical is $36, and quite a few sold for over $40. The data will shift as auctions are added or slide off, but I'd guess-timate the average from my search with shipping is about $42.
<< <i>I agree but, wouldn't the "guide" better guide you if the information was based on actual sales, such as completed items? >>
Yes, so why did you pick out one coin? One of the lowest priced coins? Why didn't you compile an average from Teletrade/Heritage/Ebay instead of picking one low priced rather low-eye appeal coin?
<< <i> More typical is $36, and quite a few sold for over $40 >>
Okay, so it's more like 15% to 20% off, either way it's honestly off a bit.
<< <i>Yes, so why did you pick out one coin? One of the lowest priced coins? Why didn't you compile an average from Teletrade/Heritage/Ebay instead of picking one low priced rather low-eye appeal coin? >>
Because its 12:30 at night and I'm tired!
<< <i> Not to harp on your examples, but you served them, those 15D and 12P Barber Halves are in abundance and will fall under type prices. Dozens in that series would easily bring 50% to 100% over PCGS price guide. I'm sure it all averages out. >>
I totally agree that overall it's most likely averages out but, wouldn't it be better if it didn't average out, with some coins being drastically over priced and other under priced? Wouldn't it be better if the price guide was closer to actual sales?
Could you post a few examples where a Barber Half sold on EBay for 50 to 100% over the PCGS price guide? Such as a $50 barber selling for $75 or $100? Or a $200 Barber selling for $300 to $400?
Concerning averages, a wise man once said "If my left foot was in a bucket of ice and my right foot in a pit of fire, averages say I should be perfectly comfortable!"
<< <i>
<< <i> More typical is $36, and quite a few sold for over $40 >>
Okay, so it's more like 15% to 20% off, either way it's honestly off a bit.
<< <i>Yes, so why did you pick out one coin? One of the lowest priced coins? Why didn't you compile an average from Teletrade/Heritage/Ebay instead of picking one low priced rather low-eye appeal coin? >>
Because its 12:30 at night and I'm tired!
Your conclusions are old news for experienced collectors. Some collectors use a rule of thumb such as PCGS guide less 25%, as their max bid. That percentage will vary depending on the series and quality of the coin. Some dealers will ask for guide, some will ask higher than guide, some will price more in line with grey sheet. Depends on the dealer, the series, and the coin(s).
Calling a price guide out of line, and then picking out isolated coins at the fringes of the price curve to reach that conclusion is very bad methodology. Starting a fifth price guide thread within the past ten days or so, all with basically the same message, is another indicator.
Good luck to you.
/edit typos
Ever check out the prices of common Modern PR69DCAM coins?
<< <i>Calling a price guide out of line, and then picking out isolated coins at the fringes of the price curve to reach that conclusion is very bad methodology. >>
Honestly, that was not my methodology and I never said I had come to any new conclusions.
I've seen over the past 3 years or so that the PCGS price guide is nearly always over priced and before adding this poll I posted a few examples, if I had the time I'm sure I could post 1000 examples in the past 3 months proving this point but if I did, would anyone actually read all of them? Most likely not.
I know the guide is off because as you said, experienced collectors know to take 25% off... that means the PCGS guide is off.
My question and poll was... should it be this way?
Most likely this poll and thread will die but, it might, just might, get a ton of responses and if 1000 members vote yes and 200 vote no, those are the kind of numbers that can be mailed to the PCGS guys and gals and they could make some changes to the guide.
Of course good luck to you as well!
<< <i> Who uses the PCGS price Guide?? >>
<< <i>Ever check out the prices of common Modern PR69DCAM coins? >>
Yes, that is another example and I am completely in agreement with you, the prices are sometimes crazy over priced.
But, turning your question around a bit, would you use the PCGS price guide if the prices for the modern PR69DCAM coins were actually reflective of the prices they really sell for?
Wouldn't the PCGS price guide be better and more useful it those inflated prices were changed?
Look for one of these in MS at your next coin show--NONE.
<< <i> Some are undergaded. Check the 1938D Walker. >>
<< <i>Look for one of these in MS at your next coin show--NONE. >>
Yup, you're absolutely right about some being under valued, that change should be made as well.
BTW: The PCGS lists an MS65 1938-D Walking Liberty at $1875.00, there's one on Ebay at this time with a 'buy it now' of $1,995.00... if it sells at that price, that's a great example of where the PCGS price guide should be adjusted on the other end.
Of course if it doesn't sell, and he lowers the price to $1875 and still nothing, then $1800, $1790, but then BAM it sells for $1775 well, that actual sale price could be averaged into other actual sales to better adjust the guide... IMHO!
Linky
The 38D Walker is a good example. You might get one that is "blast white and recently dipped" for say 1500 in a 65 holder. Or you could get a curated coin at the same price. While, on the other hand, you might see an 'original skinned' coin for let us say 1875. A third possibility would be a wonderfully "toned" original for say 2,000 or more. In every instance, the coin could be holdered as a 65. But, in NO way are the coins valued the same---nor should they be. How could a price guide reflect these differences?
In no way can you EVER put an exact value on every coin that is in a 65 holder by using any price guide. No matter whose price guide that you were using. So, maybe we could understand that the prices in the guides are just their best guesses---or averages---rather than a hard and fixed definite amount. It can never be accurate to the exact dollar---because the coins in the holders are NOT identical. Bob [supertooth]
<< <i>
In no way can you EVER put an exact value on every coin that is in a 65 holder by using any price guide. No matter whose price guide that you were using. So, maybe we could understand that the prices in the guides are just their best guesses---or averages---rather than a hard and fixed definite amount. It can never be accurate to the exact dollar---because the coins in the holders are NOT identical. Bob [supertooth] >>
The hobby would be much better served if ALL the price guides listed a RANGE value for each coin in each grade. The low value for the range would be wholesale, a price the buyer is willing to pay for a given coin. The high value for the range would be retail, a price the seller is looking to get for a given coin. The difference in the range represents the agreement between buyer and seller that MUST happen in order for a given coin transaction to occur. Makes sense to me and it would eliminate all this BS about how price guides are "too high" or "too low". Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
Go look. Tell me where you can buy an 1853 no arrows Quarter for the prices listed, for instance.
Ray
<< <i>
<< <i> Not to harp on your examples, but you served them, those 15D and 12P Barber Halves are in abundance and will fall under type prices. Dozens in that series would easily bring 50% to 100% over PCGS price guide. I'm sure it all averages out. >>
I totally agree that overall it's most likely averages out but, wouldn't it be better if it didn't average out, with some coins being drastically over priced and other under priced? Wouldn't it be better if the price guide was closer to actual sales?
Could you post a few examples where a Barber Half sold on EBay for 50 to 100% over the PCGS price guide? Such as a $50 barber selling for $75 or $100? Or a $200 Barber selling for $300 to $400? >>
I'll do better:
1909-O PCGS XF40 BARBER QUARTER
Sale Date: 05/26/08
Item number: 220236005435
$1,405.99
Current PCGS Price Guide: $340
It happens.