The Meltdown of '08. Will we ever know how many survived?

CoinHusker · January 29, 2008 12:53AM

Thinking of modern gold commems and the current frenzy to sell and melt. Will we, in our lifetimes, ever really know surviving mintages of modern gold commems? Could some true rarities been created in the meltdown?

commoncents05 · January 29, 2008 1:02AM

I think it's doubtful that the melting will have that big of an impact on prices in the short term. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade for bullion prices for a very long time.

-Paul

CoinHusker · January 29, 2008 1:15AM

<< I think it's doubtful that the melting will have that big of an impact on prices in the short term. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade for bullion prices for a very long time.

-Paul >>

In a way, that's my point. Not knowing surviving numbers will only keep these at those price levels, when there is a possibility that enough have been (could be) melted to affect some issues as far as rarity is concerned.

Zoins · January 29, 2008 1:16AM

My guess is that only lower condition common dates would be melted and survivor numbers would remain higher than other "manufactured rarities" for lack of a better term.

I think you'd have to have a prolonged depression where people don't have jobs, food, shelter, etc. to create some true rarities. Hopefully we wont' see those conditions again in this country.

cladking · January 29, 2008 1:18AM

Usually rarities aren't made by melting because of the actions of collectors.

We tend to save one of each coin and then what's avaialable for destruction
is affected by this. If a coin has a low mintage then setting a large number
aside means the coin will be disproportionately unavailable for melting. Coins
with high mintages are readily available but these will be protected by their
high mintages.

Are there really a lot of these getting melted now?

291fifth · January 29, 2008 1:35AM

I doubt that the modern gold coins are being melted since they are assayed and of a known content. The coins are going to gold speculators/investors. What is being melted is gold scrap and jewelry that is regarded as worth more as melt than as a retail item.

CoinHusker · January 29, 2008 1:49AM

<< 
Are there really a lot of these getting melted now? >>

Look at wondercoin's response in this Thread.

<< best I know - YES.

1,000 spouse gold coins are now pretty gold bars. CameoCC reported similar incident on a thread not too long ago as well.

Wondercoin >>

And that is new issue first spouse coins. I would imagine older date, higher mintage (27,000+), generally not respected modern gold commems took as great a hit if not worse. IMO

------
edit to add:

The owner of a local B&M who does a large online retail business told me he routinely melts gold commems. When I questioned his comment, he got out a shipping box full of gold commems in original packaging and said, "See these?" "They're going to be melted." And that happened 2 years ago.

Julian · January 29, 2008 2:02AM

Undamaged coins, for the most part, do not get melted. They just trade based on the content.

Silver bags trade as bags and I believe that the other coins mostly trade similarly. That way you always have a double play; one on bullion, one on numismatics.

jhusman · January 29, 2008 2:03AM

It's hard to say - I would think that some have been melted as well, but how it will affect is unknown.

Here are the currently certified pops for the proofs (I own a lot of these)

9623 1986-W $5 Statue Of Liberty PRDC 1 1 2 28 187 4,453 47 4,719
9627 1987-W $5 Constitution PRDC 1 1 2 23 218 5,282 100 5,627
9631 1988-W $5 Olympic PRDC 5 1 1 20 181 3,111 52 3,371
9637 1989-W $5 Congress PRDC 1 1 1 5 15 122 1,991 38 2,174
9647 1991-W $5 Mount Rushmore PRDC 3 10 94 2,267 55 2,429

Obviously NGC has some certified as well. I'd be inclined to say that slabbed examples would be the last to go to the pot, but who knows?

I'm sure there will be some rarities, but Samuel may be the one to figure that out years from now. The second part is - who cares? These don't seem to trade for much of a premium, because it seems few really "collect" these. I would htink that more people buy them for spot than anything else.

I have seen commercials on TV for some of these at a premium, but TV sales are for the uninformed mostly - those people just want to buy gold.

CoinHusker · January 29, 2008 2:12AM

<< 
I'm sure there will be some rarities, but Samuel may be the one to figure that out years from now. >>

He'd probably enjoy doing it too!

BECOKA · January 29, 2008 2:16AM

I think melting of coins can actually help the coin market. Assuming it is only junk widgets. There were many many millions of each coin minted, if we melt a few then it could help bring real value to the coins currently in the market.

CoinHusker · January 29, 2008 8:23AM

<< I think melting of coins can actually help the coin market. Assuming it is only junk widgets. There were many many millions of each coin minted, if we melt a few then it could help bring real value to the coins currently in the market. >>

That's what I was wondering. Especially since modern gold commems have the problems that have been voiced above, there may turn out to be some valuable coins in those releases. JMO

claychaser · January 29, 2008 8:25AM

How many will not actually be melted, but mishandled and tossed into tubes of bullion coins?

SkyMan · January 29, 2008 9:10AM

I agree that unless they are seriously damaged what possibly could be the point in melting modern gold commems? You know what their gold content is, and a lot of them trade more or less on that value.

rah1959 · January 29, 2008 9:35AM

Can't remember the exact numbers....but in Coin World they had an article...sure someone can look and get the numbers...but the owner of Silvertowne states that he got 3-five gallon buckets of gold at Florida Fun.....$20 Libs, $10...world gold and modern AGE to take back and melt...

and here is where I don't remember the numbers but he said they (Silvetowne) have melted many-many Jamestown gold Commemoratives....and 700(?) of the gold spouse coins.

Someone need to check that article and post the correct numbers...I am relying on a poor brain that read this late last week.

RAH

wayneme · January 29, 2008 9:43AM

the people that bought gold coins in the 80's don't have a clue in alot of cases except their gold
i'll bet most ended up in lock boxs till now never being graded at that time grading was a real new thing
golds up time to buy gold is up now time to sell my jmo

Griv · January 29, 2008 10:29AM

<< I agree that unless they are seriously damaged what possibly could be the point in melting modern gold commems? You know what their gold content is, and a lot of them trade more or less on that value. >>

The gold commems are not easily traded in the bullion market whereas bullion coins and bars are. I doubt bullion coins are boing melted and the older years do not sell for spot. What sells for spot are the 05-07 and even the 05s are starting to climb. These are great investments.

CoinHusker · January 29, 2008 12:16PM

<< Can't remember the exact numbers....but in Coin World they had an article...sure someone can look and get the numbers...but the owner of Silvertowne states that he got 3-five gallon buckets of gold at Florida Fun.....$20 Libs, $10...world gold and modern AGE to take back and melt...

and here is where I don't remember the numbers but he said they (Silvetowne) have melted many-many Jamestown gold Commemoratives....and 700(?) of the gold spouse coins.

Someone need to check that article and post the correct numbers...I am relying on a poor brain that read this late last week.

RAH >>

Thanks for remembering that! The article is by Paul Gilkes and it's in the 2/4/08 CW pages 5 & 42. Some interesting excerpts:

"At least one dealer, SilverTowne, from Winchester, Ind., reported filling five-gallon buckets with gold and silver coinage, a good portion of the gold coins certified, all of which were headed for the melting pot.

SilverTowne's President David Hendrickson said the company has been melting thousands of gold coins and bullion pieces for months, including numerous U.S. gold comemorative pieces.

Among the gold pieces Hendrickson said have been melted already are more than 700 Proof and Uncirculated 2007-W Jamestown 400th Anniversary .900 fine gold $5 half ealges and more than 1,000 Proof and Uncirculated 2007-W First Spouse .9999 coins depicting Martha Washington and Abigail Adams."

And that is only one dealer. It makes you wonder, doesn't it?

rah1959 · January 29, 2008 12:19PM

<< Among the gold pieces Hendrickson said have been melted already are more than 700 Proof and Uncirculated 2007-W Jamestown 400th Anniversary .900 fine gold $5 half ealges and more than 1,000 Proof and Uncirculated 2007-W First Spouse .9999 coins depicting Martha Washington and Abigail Adams >>

Thats it! thanks for posting that.....

that number of gold spouses is interesting......

DoubleEagle59 · January 29, 2008 12:37PM

I always wonder how many gold and silver coins were melted in 1980.

I can remember here in Toronto, long line-ups of people at coin shops, selling their goods. The coin shops had to hire police officers for security.

ProofArtworkonCircs · January 29, 2008 3:03PM

Note that the 3 five gallon buckets were gold only. More than 100 five gallon buckets of silver coins, ingots and rounds were trucked back to Indiana to be melted from FUN.

Coinsponge · January 30, 2008 12:51AM

Melting!!!! The WWW was a big melter also.

CoinHusker · January 30, 2008 1:15AM

<< Note that the 3 five gallon buckets were gold only. More than 100 five gallon buckets of silver coins, ingots and rounds were trucked back to Indiana to be melted from FUN. >>

That amazed me too! I think a lot of "modern" coins (silver and gold) surviving numbers are never going to be known. I mean, it' snot like circulating coinage with millions of coins minted. Yes, modern commems have relatively high numbers, but not like circulating coinage so a "meltdown" affects it to a greater degree. No?

Also, I seriously doubt when all those coins got cracked out of slabs they returned the inserts to the grading companies so the pops could be corrected.

cladking · January 30, 2008 1:55AM

<< 

<< Note that the 3 five gallon buckets were gold only. More than 100 five gallon buckets of silver coins, ingots and rounds were trucked back to Indiana to be melted from FUN. >>

That amazed me too! I think a lot of "modern" coins (silver and gold) surviving numbers are never going to be known. I mean, it' snot like circulating coinage with millions of coins minted. Yes, modern commems have relatively high numbers, but not like circulating coinage so a "meltdown" affects it to a greater degree. No?
>>

No. One of the more interesting aspects of the way time flies is that
objects tend to suffer attrition in proportion to the numbers made.

Indeed, in many cases objects made in huge numbers will actually have
higher percentages being destroyed than those which are scarcer and
often more valuable. If someone drops a quarter in a place where it
is difficult to retrieve it may be gone forever but they'll expend effort
to retrieve an eagle. Coins are out in circulation being exposed to the
many factors and forces that destroy and degrade them while gold ea-
gles merely need not be sold to a melter during a period that they are
actively being destroyed.

If you start with 1000 and assume a 1% annual attrition with the same
rate for 10,000,000 of something the numbers of survivors soon appro-
ximate the same number. Then try it with a .5% attrition for the lower
mintage and 3% for the higher.

A few hundred pounds of gold is a drop in the bucket of what the mint
has produced since 1982.

You can get a fairly good idea of what's being destroyed if you keep an
eye on it. You won't know if what you're seeing is a good sample but
it will give you a basis on which to make some assumptions.

It's a fair bet that a lot of stuff is going to start getting destroyed again
in some pretty large numbers if metals hold or increase. But never lose
sight of the fact that valued objects are rarely made rare by intentional
destruction. As they become scarcer fewer and fewer are in the stream
of recycled gold and their value will increase above the point at which it's
profitable to destroy them. Eventually the increase in gold and silver
prices will falter or reverse. Items already rare are unlikely to be in the
stream because... ...well, they're already rare.

There are a lot of opportunities created during times like these.

pf70collector · January 30, 2008 6:28AM

If silvertown bought the spouses at $430 last year original mint price and sold them for melt 700 x Gold now $929 or $464 1/2 ounce) thats $23,000 in profit for melt alone so it is feasable. Hopefully more dealers will follow suit. But thats a lot of coins that have to be melted to make these rare.

CoinHusker · January 30, 2008 6:59AM

<< 
There are a lot of opportunities created during times like these. >>

Actually, that was kind of the "back story" to my thoughts when posting this.

tincup · January 30, 2008 7:35AM

I have to agree that there can be a significant change in the surviving numbers. It's a fact that there is now much demand for gold. It's a fact that this demand also includes bars--- that have to be fabricated from scrap, and coins both modern and older. It's a fact that there are many holders of modern gold that would be more than willing to sell for more than they paid for the item from the US Mint.....

We are in interesting times..... no telling what will have survived 10 years from now.

CoinHusker · February 26, 2008 11:57PM

2manycoins2fewfunds · February 27, 2008 12:05AM

<< Thinking of modern gold commems and the current frenzy to sell and melt. Will we, in our lifetimes, ever really know surviving mintages of modern gold commems? Could some true rarities been created in the meltdown?

>>

The one number that likely will not decline is the population of MS/PR70 coins.
If anything it may go up.
Many like myself are now looking at their holdings of raw coins and melting those which have no shot at 70.
I'll then take those with a shot at 70 and submit them with plan to then scrap the slabbed MS/PR69s.

I'm looking seriously at melting my MS69/PR69 20th Anniversary American Gold Eagles.

notlogical · February 27, 2008 12:16AM

YN's will be the only ones who live long enough to know.

CoinHusker · February 27, 2008 3:09AM

you better start buying them now then.

ricko · February 27, 2008 3:30AM

No one will ever know.... Cheers, RickO

dlimb2 · February 27, 2008 3:33AM

Sure people will know, if they melt the Hags, as there are only 40K per issue...it will show up! Now if there were Millions of coins and only thousands destroyed then it would take some time...But the price of HAGS are a CHANGEN!

dlimb2 · February 27, 2008 3:45AM

MELT AWAY!

bluespaceant · February 27, 2008 3:52AM

.

chiefbob · February 27, 2008 3:58AM

After seeing a lot of modern silver in TPG slabs going for less than Mint price (not even counting the cost of the slabbing), I wonder how many will get cracked out of their plastic tombs to go into the silver buckets for melting? When silver goes over $25/oz in the near future, I could see this happening. Check the completed listings for common, modern silver that go unsold or the ones that took a beating.

Are plastic slabs recyclable?

malachi555 · February 27, 2008 5:04AM

<< 

<< Can't remember the exact numbers....but in Coin World they had an article...sure someone can look and get the numbers...but the owner of Silvertowne states that he got 3-five gallon buckets of gold at Florida Fun.....$20 Libs, $10...world gold and modern AGE to take back and melt...

and here is where I don't remember the numbers but he said they (Silvetowne) have melted many-many Jamestown gold Commemoratives....and 700(?) of the gold spouse coins.

Someone need to check that article and post the correct numbers...I am relying on a poor brain that read this late last week.

RAH >>

Thanks for remembering that! The article is by Paul Gilkes and it's in the 2/4/08 CW pages 5 & 42. Some interesting excerpts:

"At least one dealer, SilverTowne, from Winchester, Ind., reported filling five-gallon buckets with gold and silver coinage, a good portion of the gold coins certified, all of which were headed for the melting pot.

SilverTowne's President David Hendrickson said the company has been melting thousands of gold coins and bullion pieces for months, including numerous U.S. gold comemorative pieces.

Among the gold pieces Hendrickson said have been melted already are more than 700 Proof and Uncirculated 2007-W Jamestown 400th Anniversary .900 fine gold $5 half ealges and more than 1,000 Proof and Uncirculated 2007-W First Spouse .9999 coins depicting Martha Washington and Abigail Adams."

And that is only one dealer. It makes you wonder, doesn't it? >>

I've been reading about these since first seeing that article in CW, but I still can't figure out how they are making any profit in melting these. Can anyone illuminate this for me?

aficionado · February 27, 2008 6:12AM

Here's what I think...

People don't give a crap !!

We are coin geeks, most everyone else is not, even dealers.

Example, someone bought a spouse from the Mint, times are tough, mortgage is due, etc, etc. He has no interest in Ebay, goes to the coin shop and gets his original $420 back, plus $30 cash. What's not to like? Coin shop knows the spouses are not that popular, doesn't want to be left holding the bag when gold goes down, so he sells it to get melted, I can see this happening a lot.

But the world will never know how many are left, so the it really doesn't matter.

AlixTCat · February 27, 2008 6:15AM

<< Can't remember the exact numbers....but in Coin World they had an article...sure someone can look and get the numbers...but the owner of Silvertowne states that he got 3-five gallon buckets of gold at Florida Fun.....$20 Libs, $10...world gold and modern AGE to take back and melt...

and here is where I don't remember the numbers but he said they (Silvetowne) have melted many-many Jamestown gold Commemoratives....and 700(?) of the gold spouse coins.

Someone need to check that article and post the correct numbers...I am relying on a poor brain that read this late last week.

RAH >>

How much do you think a 5 Gal bucket of gold would weigh? The handle would break off. The bucket would crack. What you mention is not even possible over a year or more, much less a weekend.

Jonathan

pf70collector · February 27, 2008 6:22AM

No need to crack out. I thought they just throw the slabbed coins in the smelter.

mach19 · February 27, 2008 6:29AM

I Have a Jefferson First spouce uncirculated as shipped from the mint & can't unload it for $475.00 ( @ this time under melt ) I will bring it with me to the Portland Maine show 3/16 and let it go for melt. You can add that one to the melt bucket also

PerryHall · February 27, 2008 7:17AM

<< I've been reading about these since first seeing that article in CW, but I still can't figure out how they are making any profit in melting these. Can anyone illuminate this for me? >>

They must be buying them for well below melt from desperate and / or stupid people to make any kind of profit.

The Meltdown of '08. Will we ever know how many survived?

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