The Official "I Was Wrong!" Blown Economic Predictions and Forecasts Thread of Shame!

pharmer · January 22, 2008 10:08AM

Been wondering how we can keep a running tally of the mostly wrong economic predictions and forecasts we read here on the forum. So, here it is, and you can either point out your own foolishness, or help someone else toward recovery by nominating them and their doom and gloom predictions.

Of course, we lead it off with the Mother Of All Blown Predictions, The Market Crash of January 22, 2008. Now who to recognize when there were so many who were wrong? I know, the award goes to all of you who predicted and/or hoped for the crash, and especially those of you who are saying "wait until tomorrow!, You'll see!"

ChuckC · January 22, 2008 10:11AM

There's always tomorrow!

Manorcourtman · January 22, 2008 10:14AM

The know it all people never admit defeat. Kinda like the weather people, it's never their fault because the variables were variable.

RedTiger · January 22, 2008 10:20AM

<< There's always tomorrow! >>

It's time to cue Little Orphan Annie:
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love you, tomorrow, you're always a day away!!!

cladking · January 22, 2008 10:25AM

Always hang on to old predictions.

They'll not only remind you of the risk and difficulty of making good predictions but they're recyclable. They always come true.

lkenefic · January 22, 2008 10:27AM

Hindsight is 20/20... I sold silver May 2003 after holding on for over 10 years. It was always flat and even a war didn't kick-start it...

roadrunner · January 22, 2008 10:29AM

Besides tomorrow, it's pretty clear that by lowering rates the FED steered clear of a monumental sell-off. If you read Sinclair last Thursday (link below) he predicted a 1000 pt drop almost immediately if the FED did not act right away. They acted and things were averted for now. Their actions have only delayed the final outcome, and make it worse. It's really all they can do. Drop rates and inflate.

Don't worry, even worse predictions will come out of 2008.

roadrunner

Mesquite · January 22, 2008 10:30AM

Hell, I was wrong. Should have moved my stuff into a money market when the Dow was reaching for 14,000 a few months ago. Foresight is preferable to hindsight. (But I did have the foresight to pick up some gold at $350

. Passed on the Rhodium at $425 though

.)

TwoSides2aCoin · January 22, 2008 10:32AM

A public flogging

Post a coin and you may be shown mercy !

OPA · January 22, 2008 10:33AM

I suggest you read this thread from 1 1/2 years ago. You'll be amazed as to who was correct or wrong.

Forum thread 7/06

lkenefic · January 22, 2008 10:37AM

<< A public flogging

Post a coin and you may be shown mercy ! >>

I DID manage to buy this when gold was a mear $700/oz!!

roadrunner · January 22, 2008 10:40AM

I've always wondered about the argument that the metals produce no income. Well that is if you don't count the appreciation that occurs. Anything going up in value is producing income for you...as long as down the road you find a way to extract that gain and hold it.

rodrunner

CarlWohlforth · January 22, 2008 10:49AM

<>

Whew! In that old thread it looks like I agreed with RedTiger and CladKing who said it was good to own some, but not very much, gold. I was buying at that time. With hindsight should have bought more.

Today we had a surprise Fed intervention. Nobody here predicted that as far as I know. The market futures pointed to a terrible day. That made sense because world markets were trading yesterday and had huge losses. I did not agree or disagree with the futures market, I was just worried because I am very long stocks.

The market is still down a lot and it happened quickly. We are almost %20 down from last year's highs. We are down a lot (%10+) in just the past few weeks. The Dow is down 400 points in the last couple trading days.

Still, as the eternal optimist, I predict with great certainty that the stock and coin markets will reach new highs!!!!

Deadhorse · January 22, 2008 10:55AM

I fully admit I was wrong on my 6+ month prediction of where silver spot would be in December of '07.

I posted it often enough that anyone could find it. I was low by a good 8-9%, though January brought me back much closer. I was late and I missed it, badly by my own standards.

However, I didn't foresee doom and gloom and any sort of crash for today, I know the PPT will cover that as long as they can.

I did expect Helicopter Ben's rate reduction, but didn't think it would occur BEFORE the markets opened, I also expected a full point. We'll probably get that extra .25 soon enough, though.

It's an election year and things financial are often smoke and mirrors. The piper will be paid, but not before we move into 2009, no matter the damge done to our financial infrastructure in the process. The next president will have his hands full. Yes, I did say he. This country is much closer to electing a black man than they are a woman, particularly this woman.

You can go back and see it at work in the past Pres election years.

Not a prediction, just an example of how our system works and history repeating itself.

Only one exception in our recent history and that was in 1980, and that year was one for the books in so many different ways. Carter helped Al Queada gain a real following and a serious movement, home loans were around 18% with good credit, over 25% for others. Gas went sky high and Carter hid under a rock as for the first time in decades the media didn't support the Democrats. Many, many people lost their jobs and there was real dispair for all that hadn't put away lots of silver.

I lost my great paying job as well and I had a young family with three babies. Fortunately as a YN I had put away guite a hoard of 90% melt coins, enough to carry my family for two years and allow me to start my own business in that time frame.

It's all cyclical, in a few years most of us will again be just fine. Then we can go back to complaining about submission grades and how the '09 Lincoln prices have fallen through the floor.

Deadhorse · January 22, 2008 11:15AM

<< I suggest you read this thread from 1 1/2 years ago. You'll be amazed as to who was correct or wrong.

Forum thread 7/06 >>

I don't know how I missed posting to that thread, but I did.

The most amazing part was that the wise old Bear actually posted in paragraphs, that was the real shocker to me.

secondrepublic · January 22, 2008 11:30AM

Not sure who has been wrong but I know who has been right on a lot of these issues... he's also into gold though not, to my knowledge, a coin collector.

RedTiger · January 22, 2008 12:18PM

<< <>

Whew! In that old thread it looks like I agreed with RedTiger and CladKing who said it was good to own some, but not very much, gold. I was buying at that time. With hindsight should have bought more.

Today we had a surprise Fed intervention. Nobody here predicted that as far as I know. The market futures pointed to a terrible day. That made sense because world markets were trading yesterday and had huge losses. I did not agree or disagree with the futures market, I was just worried because I am very long stocks.

The market is still down a lot and it happened quickly. We are almost %20 down from last year's highs. We are down a lot (%10+) in just the past few weeks. The Dow is down 400 points in the last couple trading days.

Still, as the eternal optimist, I predict with great certainty that the stock and coin markets will reach new highs!!!! >>

I believe at the time of that thread (July 2006), gold was just under $700 (from that thread: Metals at the sub$700/$12...). It was not a particularly good time to buy. About a year later, September 2007, gold was back at $700 moving up, and I posted a buy then. 90% of the respondents in the later thread told me I was wrong, and many of them were selling into the rally. I wrote that it might turn out to be the worst time to sell in terms of percentage returns. With gold up over 20% in four months since 9/2007, I can credit myself with a good call. Roadrunner joined me on saying to add to gold positions, on that second thread (I can't see to find it, but did find another comment on another thread). No one else that I can recall chimed in, even on this board with an 80% bullish bias towards gold. Those 90% that told me where I saw breakout, they saw a double top. They can enjoy their can of crow.

>>>
Tuesday September 18, 2007 12:33 PM (NEW!)
... My bottom line is that at this time, I see the big rate cut as super bullish for gold. I am looking to possibly add to my longs, not take profits. I took a trading position in GLD about a week ago. This has a chance of being the "big one," for gold [a huge up move].

Bear · January 22, 2008 12:21PM

When a person accurately times the market, it is always

thru sheer, dumb chance. No body ever really knows how high

the market will go or how far the market will fall. We can

say that the Market appears overbought, but the darn

thing can can run beyond that point by several years. Same

thing applies to the coin market.

Doogy · January 22, 2008 12:24PM

just because you get the RNC talking points faxed to you every morning, doesn't mean you have to read them here.

It doesn't take an economist to see that the US is on the wrong course financially. Our trade imbalance is out of control, foreign governments are holding far too much of our debt, our government has been spending like drunken sailors these past 10 or so years, and US citizens are generally pretty foolhardy when it comes to personal finance. Sounds like a recipe for financial disaster to me

53BKid · January 22, 2008 2:04PM

<< When a person accurately times the market, it is always

thru sheer, dumb chance. .... >>

That is unless you were Joe Kennedy in a former life!

seanq · January 22, 2008 2:18PM

I'm proud of you, pharmer, yet another solid contribution to the U.S. Coins forum.

Since you're all into mea culpas now, maybe you can answer my question to you from the other day: why on
page 2 of this thread you quoted yourself two minutes apart as if you were talking to someone else. So which one of your alt accounts did you think you were quoting?

Sean Reynolds

pharmer · January 22, 2008 2:28PM

See, another one who thinks this is no place for these predictions and forecasts. The thing that all you visionaries fail to see, is that everyone keeps getting to see you fail

Remember the First Rule Of Holes! Do you know The First Rule Of Holes? It's...

Stop Digging!

RedTiger · January 22, 2008 3:10PM

I did think of a blown "prediction" that I made. Several months back (perhaps a year) a coin dealer asked whether to put a sizeable chunk of money into more coins, outside of inventory, as an investment, or as a down payment on a house. I answered house, and stomped my feet about it. The consolation that I can cling to, is that I told the would be house buyer to take their time and find a good deal. Hopefully, if they went for the house, they are still shopping, or got a real sweet deal. A well connected dealer could have done very well in just a few months with the right coins selling them at FUN, while most real estate is down a good bit, in that same time period.

57loaded · January 23, 2008 8:26AM

sometime ago i was going to put the dow at 12k for 12/31/07, i was just off by a few weeks, and didn't make the put

IF the Fed had NOT lowered the interest rate, then it would have dropped, yet some safety nets would have prevented a cat. drop

BTW PM's are doing well after hours COMEX in the world market.

they sky won't fall but the ceiling is lowering

CoinHusker · January 23, 2008 9:30AM

Here a swivet, there a swivet, everyone is in a swivet.

pharmer · January 23, 2008 9:53AM

Been out all day, what happened with the stock market? Did it in fact crash today as once again predicted?

Myqqy · January 23, 2008 10:08AM

I've been wondering what it is about coin collectors that makes them financial wizards?

pharmer · January 23, 2008 10:22AM

Their performance this week with their predictions leads you to call them financial wizards? They were wrong about every single thing they said and predicted. 100% wrong. Again.

roadrunner · January 23, 2008 10:24AM

Stock market fell some more today, but the FED wasn't there with a rate cut either. Probably a good time for a reversal though. Gold and silver are showing flag formations again which has the potential to shoot them upwards again. The FED's cut really did nothing to help the economy and actually gave the metals a nice jolt. Stagflation has a new champion....the FED. Once we chew through the $2 TRILL in sub-prime and credit card derivatives, then it will be time to start nibbling on the $20-$45 TRILL Credit Default Swap problem.

roadrunner

7over8 · January 23, 2008 10:36AM

I agree Roadrunner.

I don't think anyone who thought that Tuesday was to become the mother of all sh*tshows was wrong at all. Why? The FED to the rescue, but, only fools believe that action will rescue us.

This is only delaying when it will happen.

I watched a bunch of commentary on Tuesday, CNBC, MSNBC, etc etc etc, and all they kept saying before breaking for commercials was "Dont PANIC, Dont SELL, everything you need to know to survive a bear market will be at your fingertips, just stay tuned"......how PATHETIC!!!!

I believe the DOW will be sub 10,000 in 6 months time.

CASH is KING. Out of Equities. Steer clear of Debt as well. Stcik with your so-called recession proof stocks, utilities, "vice" manufacturers and constant dollar MM funds (no fancy high yielding risk oriented ones either)

And accrue your 5-6% return risk free.

Sit back and watch the show.........watch them pat themselves on thier backs and reassure themselves that everything is OK.

pharmer · January 23, 2008 10:54AM

"I have never been right. That single fact leads me to once again tell you what is going to happen, with 100% certitude"

Bear · January 23, 2008 11:01AM

Pharmer, I know what you mean. I myself have called

12 of the past one recession. I always buy high and

always seem to sell low. It would seem ,we are the inverse

indicators.I have seen the future and it is confusing.

seanq · January 23, 2008 11:12AM

<< I'm proud of you, pharmer, yet another solid contribution to the U.S. Coins forum.

Since you're all into mea culpas now, maybe you can answer my question to you from the other day: why on
page 2 of this thread you quoted yourself two minutes apart as if you were talking to someone else. So which one of your alt accounts did you think you were quoting?
>>

Still waiting for a reply to this. Gee, I wonder why I haven't received it...?

Sean Reynolds

rgCoinGuy · January 23, 2008 11:21AM

<< 

<< I'm proud of you, pharmer, yet another solid contribution to the U.S. Coins forum.

Since you're all into mea culpas now, maybe you can answer my question to you from the other day: why on
page 2 of this thread you quoted yourself two minutes apart as if you were talking to someone else. So which one of your alt accounts did you think you were quoting?
>>

Still waiting for a reply to this. Gee, I wonder why I haven't received it...?

Sean Reynolds >>

Sean, I am definitely not taking a side against you on this, but my guess would have to be that alcohol had something to do with that....... I could see myself doing that on some nights - mea culpas are harder to do after a night you don't remember

Myqqy · January 23, 2008 11:30AM

Their performance this week with their predictions leads you to call them financial wizards? They were wrong about every single thing they said and predicted. 100% wrong. Again.

Dude. It's called sarcasm. And on another level, it just seems like coin people like to pontificate about financial markets and such...

seanq · January 23, 2008 11:37AM

<< 

<< 

<< I'm proud of you, pharmer, yet another solid contribution to the U.S. Coins forum.

Since you're all into mea culpas now, maybe you can answer my question to you from the other day: why on
page 2 of this thread you quoted yourself two minutes apart as if you were talking to someone else. So which one of your alt accounts did you think you were quoting?
>>

Still waiting for a reply to this. Gee, I wonder why I haven't received it...?

Sean Reynolds >>

Sean, I am definitely not taking a side against you on this, but my guess would have to be that alcohol had something to do with that....... I could see myself doing that on some nights - mea culpas are harder to do after a night you don't remember

>>

I can certainly understand why you might think pharmer posts to this forum drunk, but I sincerely doubt that is the case. I believe that his mind was as right as it gets when he did that, and he was simply careless. I also believe that waiting for him to admit to any error or wrongdoing is akin to playing the stock market; one must be prepared to be in it for the long haul before expecting to see any dividends.

Sean Reynolds

originalisbest · January 23, 2008 11:49AM

Sounds like smoeone's a wee bit obsessed? Hello, OF! Knew you never really left.

Tyler1924S · January 23, 2008 11:54AM

<< Since you're all into mea culpas now, maybe you can answer my question to you from the other day: why on
page 2 of this thread you quoted yourself two minutes apart as if you were talking to someone else. So which one of your alt accounts did you think you were quoting?

Sean Reynolds >>

I thought he was joking. There are 3 posts. At 5:11 PM, he posts "Wish I knew who owns that". At 7:18 PM, "Whoever owns it, I want to buy it." At 7:20 PM, quotes his 7:18 post;

<< Whoever owns it, I want to buy it. >>

and answers with "Me too. So, who owns it?"

Personally, I believe he began a conversation with himself (abstract humor sort of thing) to see if anyone would notice. I don't know why he would need this exchange with an alt to ponder who owns the 1998 AT MS69 Eagle.

seanq · January 23, 2008 12:24PM

I'm sorry, but are any of you authorized to speak on pharmer's behalf? I don't usually participate in these OT threads, but since this one was already started, I posted the question here. I'm simply interested in knowing if he holds himself to the same high standards he obviously expects of everyone else here. I'll give it the rest of the evening without further comment and after that, regardless of whether he replies or not, I'll consider the question answered and the matter closed.

Sean Reynolds

pharmer · January 23, 2008 12:30PM

seanq, I'm not laughing with you, I'm laughing at you. Just so you know. Chill, dude.

pharmer · January 23, 2008 12:31PM

<< 

<< Since you're all into mea culpas now, maybe you can answer my question to you from the other day: why on
page 2 of this thread you quoted yourself two minutes apart as if you were talking to someone else. So which one of your alt accounts did you think you were quoting?

Sean Reynolds >>

I thought he was joking. There are 3 posts. At 5:11 PM, he posts "Wish I knew who owns that". At 7:18 PM, "Whoever owns it, I want to buy it." At 7:20 PM, quotes his 7:18 post;

<< Whoever owns it, I want to buy it. >>

and answers with "Me too. So, who owns it?"

Personally, I believe he began a conversation with himself (abstract humor sort of thing) to see if anyone would notice. I don't know why he would need this exchange with an alt to ponder who owns the 1998 AT MS69 Eagle. >>

Ta Da! Tyler wins! No one answered. Tried again. Not so hard, is it seanq?

pharmer · January 23, 2008 12:33PM

<< Sounds like smoeone's a wee bit obsessed? Hello, OF! Knew you never really left. >>

Actually, I'm flattered that he finds me so interesting.

pb2y · January 23, 2008 12:57PM

Nothing to it people--the market well flux.
Buy low and sell high.

seanq · January 23, 2008 2:03PM

<< 
Ta Da! Tyler wins! No one answered. Tried again. Not so hard, is it seanq? >>

Two minutes later? Sure. Well I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, because like I always say, despite a preponderance of evidence, you can never prove intent.

Sean Reynolds

The Official "I Was Wrong!" Blown Economic Predictions and Forecasts Thread of Shame!

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The Official &quot;I Was Wrong!&quot; Blown Economic Predictions and Forecasts Thread of Shame!

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The Official "I Was Wrong!" Blown Economic Predictions and Forecasts Thread of Shame!