So much for the crash!

Newcomp103 · January 22, 2008 5:16AM

You people watch way too much tv!

pharmer · January 22, 2008 5:18AM

I expected this place to be as full of mea culpa threads as there were crash prediction threads. Where do those people disappear to every time they are wrong?

Oh yeah, to the goldsilverwhatnotprediction thread. They don't admit mistakes there either.

coinlieutenant · January 22, 2008 5:18AM

I dont think you realize what would have happened had they not cut the fed funds rate...

ScarsdaleCoin · January 22, 2008 5:18AM

ttown · January 22, 2008 5:19AM

it's all past hasn't it........this game has been repeating since 2001, glad you feel saved.

robkool · January 22, 2008 5:20AM

Some have just waaay tooooo much time on their hands...

57loaded · January 22, 2008 5:20AM

<< I dont think you realize what would have happened had they not cut the fed funds rate... >>

the OP must be in a coma.... missed a lot this past 35 hours+

pharmer · January 22, 2008 5:28AM

Newcomp103 · January 22, 2008 5:29AM

<< 

<< I dont think you realize what would have happened had they not cut the fed funds rate... >>

the OP must be in a coma.... missed a lot this past 35 hours+ >>

NO...I work for a financial institution sir! Very aware of the day to day happenings in the financial sector...I also look at the long term picture of something called "history"! If you look at it through those eyes...instead of the hot and cold party to paranoid view, you would get a new understanding! I am not trying to be derogatory toward YOU personally...I'm sure that you have the frenzied media outlets telling you the world is about to end...just take a lesson in economics...learn what the true meaning of "Recession" is before you start making idiotic comments about people being in a coma!

Coinsponge · January 22, 2008 5:29AM

<< I expected this place to be as full of mea culpa threads as there were crash prediction threads. Where do those people disappear to every time they are wrong?

Oh yeah, to the goldsilverwhatnotprediction thread. They don't admit mistakes there either. >>

To the same place the tv market experts and weather predictors dissapear to when they are wrong. It must be in Egypt because I hear it is by De-Nile.

ttown · January 22, 2008 5:30AM

So I guess some of you think 200 to 500 points is a crash...we'll see it's showing direction right now and you can see that in the global markets. It could be today or take another 10 years but some seem to like to make those reporting future problems and issues like they're reporting "It's the end of the world". Hope you can laugh your way out in the future.

Tyler1924S · January 22, 2008 5:31AM

Yes, so much for "Black Tuesday".

1907Quarter · January 22, 2008 5:32AM

so now the real question, what are the negative effects of making a quick/big .75 pt cut?

Frankcoins · January 22, 2008 5:33AM

The Fed, by cheapening the dollar, has just stolen assets of those holding dollar assets (savings accounts, life insurance, pensions, cash) and transferred that wealth to the stock market speculators. It's a zero sum game. Exactly like when FDR changed the gold price from $20.67 to $35. A theft of trillions from the people, who think the government is acting to "save" them.

coinlieutenant · January 22, 2008 5:38AM

I dont think anyone was saying the world was going to end. However, if they hadnt cut rates (which I thought they were going to do but many didnt), the stock market would have lost 5-10% in one day easy.

When is the last time you saw an emergency rate cut? When is the last time they dropped the rate 75 basis points in one setting?

When is the last time you had a major rate cut and the markets responded with a down day?

The jury is still out on whether this whole mess is inflatable to the point of escape. I think the very fact that were trying to wait until the Januray meeting without cutting says that even Ben is worried about inflation.

There are consequences for greed and one day where the stock market doesnt crash does not a recovery make. The underlying fundamentals are very dicey.

seatedcoins · January 22, 2008 5:39AM

<< I dont think you realize what would have happened had they not cut the fed funds rate... >>

We were extremely lucky yesterday was a federal holiday.

Coinsponge · January 22, 2008 5:40AM

<< so now the real question, what are the negative effects of making a quick/big .75 pt cut? >>

Lower cd rates.

ttown · January 22, 2008 5:44AM

<< 

<< so now the real question, what are the negative effects of making a quick/big .75 pt cut? >>

Lower cd rates.

>>

That's so wall street can get all the money out of your CD's to make a profit and the dollar can continue it's downslide. What a deal

fishcooker · January 22, 2008 5:52AM

what are the negative effects of making a quick/big .75 pt cut?

It essentially takes income away from seniors and those who rely on fixed income to live, and gives it back to young people who borrow to maintain their lifestyles.

FinallyHere · January 22, 2008 5:53AM

Tomorrow's a new day....

StampAlarm · January 22, 2008 5:56AM

If you can name the New York State Insurance Commissioner then you know what's going on.

If you can't then it's blinders. I'm wearing blinders on purpose right now.

Coinsponge · January 22, 2008 5:59AM

<< what are the negative effects of making a quick/big .75 pt cut?

It essentially takes income away from seniors and those who rely on fixed income to live, and gives it back to young people who borrow to maintain their lifestyles. >>

That could be true unless they have older bonds at higher rates which would increase in value (on paper at least). Of course if they sold them the income would be gone but hopefully the increased capital gain would offset the lower rate. That is why having some fixed income in bonds is a good idea.

HonoluluDude · January 22, 2008 5:59AM

Tomorrow's another day, is all I can say about the "so much for the crash!" sentiment.

Connecticoin · January 22, 2008 6:05AM

<< The Fed, by cheapening the dollar, has just stolen assets of those holding dollar assets (savings accounts, life insurance, pensions, cash) and transferred that wealth to the stock market speculators. It's a zero sum game. Exactly like when FDR changed the gold price from $20.67 to $35. A theft of trillions from the people, who think the government is acting to "save" them. >>

greghansen · January 22, 2008 6:06AM

I guess its a sign of the times that we are all so relieved and impressed by a market that was down 'only' 130 points on the day. That's some sign of strength, huh?

badger · January 22, 2008 6:06AM

I agree about the cheapening $ and the potential impact. Making this strong monetary policy move needs to be followed up with fiscal responsibility.

Dave

2manycoins2fewfunds · January 22, 2008 6:14AM

It would have been a very Black Tuesday without the Federal Reserve making an EMERGENCY cut of 3/4% fed funds rate.

As they say in Charlies Wilsons War...................."We'll see..............."

Coinsponge · January 22, 2008 6:15AM

<< 

<< The Fed, by cheapening the dollar, has just stolen assets of those holding dollar assets (savings accounts, life insurance, pensions, cash) and transferred that wealth to the stock market speculators. It's a zero sum game. Exactly like when FDR changed the gold price from $20.67 to $35. A theft of trillions from the people, who think the government is acting to "save" them. >>

>>

That's why you don't put your dollars under a mattress.

HonoluluDude · January 22, 2008 6:17AM

<< I guess its a sign of the times that we are all so relieved and impressed by a market that was down 'only' 130 points on the day. That's some sign of strength, huh?

>>

Looks like one of the few assets to benefit from today's rate cut is gold and gold shares.

Deadhorse · January 22, 2008 6:23AM

As others have said, these rate cuts are slowly nibbling away at the value of the dollar.

This hurts many citizens immediately and in the end will hurt everyone. This is akin to simply propping up a sagging/collapsing tent.

Eventually it will still collapse and the results will be worse than if the Fed hadn't made this emergency cut, or the previous cuts as well.

This is an election year and the Fed ALWAYS makes things look better than they are in such years. 2009 could be a real ugly year, not just in the US, but worldwide.

People are calling a 128 point loss a good day. This is nuts. When the corection comes full steam, then regular people will think it's the end of the world.

These band-aids are just that, temporary stops to the bleeding. When the DOW falls dramatically to 9000 or less, then it will get real crazy, but not for those who have prepared.

Pay off your debt, stick with solid commodities and bet against the US Dollar. That seems to be the best way to approach this. Notice that precious metals seem to have done just fine over this last few days of "the sky is falling" mindset. It's all cyclical, in a few years real estate may again be the bull you want to ride. For now, let it fall and watch and wait.

Don't pay off your mortgage if you have a good low fixed rate. You'll be paying it off later in less valued dollars and you'll lose the tax break. That's the only debt you don't want to pay off.

Just common sense, it's not the end of the world nor will the real correction be when it comes. Just don't be holding US Dollars in large amounts.

57loaded · January 22, 2008 6:23AM

<< It would have been a very Black Tuesday without the Federal Reserve making an EMERGENCY cut of 3/4% fed funds rate.

As they say in Charlies Wilsons War...................."We'll see..............." >>

there are safety nets in place to keep a "Black" day from happening, one of them was the fed rate cut, without the safety nets the DJIA market would have tanked at least 5% today. i don't know what all the safety nets are.

a crash of Black Monday (1987) proportions won't/can't happen unless it's truly a global meltdown of a physical and monetary catastophic proportion that the federal government collapses. (or the Mint goes offline again)

Bear · January 22, 2008 6:28AM

The market anticipates the economy 6-9 months out.

While the rate cuts will help, they will not work through

the economy for 6-9 months. For the immediate future ,there

will be high volatility in the market with a downward bias. I would

expect the DOW to drop under 11,000. We may be about half way there.

We are in a recession, the only questions are, how deep and how long.

The Fed has been behind the curve for some time and now must play catch up.

Expect another 1/2 to 3/4 pint in reductions to bering the Fed Rate down to below 3%.

Coinsponge · January 22, 2008 6:30AM

<< The market anticipates the economy 6-9 months out.

While the rate cuts will help, they will not work through

the economy for 6-9 months. For the immediate future ,there

will be high volatility in the market with a downward bias. I would

expect the DOW to drop under 11,000. We may be about half way there.

We are in a recession, the only questions are, how deep and how long. >>

Can you have a real recession with low unemployment?

OPA · January 22, 2008 6:30AM

<< 

<< I dont think you realize what would have happened had they not cut the fed funds rate... >>

the OP must be in a coma.... missed a lot this past 35 hours+ >>

Either that, marooned on a deserted island.

Bajajim · January 22, 2008 6:31AM

Are we delaying the inevitable?? How long can rates continue to be cut to keep the market from doing what it wants, or needs to do???

OT or not, these threads are both interesting and important. Most people here are not turning a blind eye to what is going on. Right or wrong, each post is valuable in helping us all evaluate where we are with respect to the market and our investments, including "U.S. Coins"

I suppose time will tell.

Jim

fishcooker · January 22, 2008 6:32AM

a crash of Black Monday (1987) proportions won't/can't happen unless it's truly a global meltdown of a physical and monetary catastophic proportion that the federal government collapses.

Not really. The Dow went to 0 on 9/12/01 without the federal guvmint collapsing. So did several other stock indices.

Bear · January 22, 2008 6:33AM

The unemployment numbers badly under represents the true rate.

Not included are those who have used up UI as well as those

who have gone from high pay to lessor pay jobs and from Full time

to part time positions. There is a lot of employment pain out there that

is not accurately being shown in the Government tweeked statistics.

Coinsponge · January 22, 2008 6:37AM

<< The unemployment numbers badly under represents the true rate.

Not included are those who have used up UI as well as those

who have gone from high pay to lessor pay jobs and from Full time

to part time positions. There is a lot of employment pain out there that

is not accurately being shown in the Government tweeked statistics. >>

I think they reported that wages have been increasing and haven't federal revenues been going up also indicating that people are making more money overall? If real unemployment was going higher then revenues would be falling assuming the tax rates were the same.

badger · January 22, 2008 6:39AM

There is the market and then there are stocks. While the market recovered, the stock of the company where I work lost 6%. Rats

Bajajim · January 22, 2008 6:41AM

I am stuck on Bandaids, cuz Bandaids stuck on me.

Coinsponge · January 22, 2008 6:47AM

<< There is the market and then there are stocks. While the market recovered, the stock of the company where I work lost 6%. Rats

>>

Key words: "where I WORK".

57loaded · January 22, 2008 7:15AM

<< a crash of Black Monday (1987) proportions won't/can't happen unless it's truly a global meltdown of a physical and monetary catastophic proportion that the federal government collapses.

Not really. The Dow went to 0 on 9/12/01 without the federal guvmint collapsing. So did several other stock indices.

>>

that's right if you call the doors being closed, yup.

roadrunner · January 22, 2008 7:43AM

expected this place to be as full of mea culpa threads as there were crash prediction threads. Where do those people disappear to every time they are wrong? Oh yeah, to the goldsilverwhatnotprediction thread. They don't admit mistakes there either.

About the only thing that did hold up, and actually advanced.....gold. Nice call!

Is this situation recoverable and is most everything now out in the open? Keep dreaming, we just concluded the first inning.

roadrunner

Silverstate · January 22, 2008 8:00AM

I just want to know when I will get my check for the bailout.

I hope they hurry up so I can infuse my money back into a Gold Buffalo.

1775 · January 22, 2008 8:02AM

Band Aids----Band Aids----Band Aids--- Band Aids--- Eventually we are going to have to put stiches on the deep wounds!!!!

tincup · January 22, 2008 8:13AM

<< Tomorrow's another day, is all I can say about the "so much for the crash!" sentiment. >>

I agree. Very shortsighted I would say for those who just want to 'wave off' what has taken place the last day or two. Might not be over by a long shot. Do a little refresher reading about the 1929 crash. MANY of the same things taking place. It is very significant that the FED reduced the rate by .75 after an emergency meeting.

A little of the sentiments from 1929, prior to the crash, from www.bestsyndication.com ......

"When the market corrected by 8 percent between March 18-27 - following a Fed induced credit crunch and a series of mysterious closed-door sessions of the Fed's board - bankers rushed in. The New York Times reported: "Responsible bankers agree that stocks should now be supported, having reached a level that makes them attractive.'' By August, the market was up 35 percent on its March lows. But it reached a peak on September 3 and it was downhill since then.

On October 19, five days before "Black Thursday", Business Week published this sanguine prognosis:

"Now, of course, the crucial weaknesses of such periods - price inflation, heavy inventories, over-extension of commercial credit - are totally absent. The security market seems to be suffering only an attack of stock indigestion... There is additional reassurance in the fact that, should business show any further signs of fatigue, the banking system is in a good position now to administer any needed credit tonic from its excellent Reserve supply."

The crash unfolded gradually. Black Thursday actually ended with an inspiring rally. Friday and Saturday - trading ceased only on Sundays - witnessed an upswing followed by mild profit taking. The market dropped 12.8 percent on Monday, with Winston Churchill watching from the visitors' gallery - incurring a loss of $10-14 billion.

The Wall Street Journal warned naive investors:

"Many are looking for technical corrective reactions from time to time, but do not expect these to disturb the upward trend for any prolonged period."

The market plummeted another 11.7 percent the next day - though trading ended with an impressive rally from the lows. October 31 was a good day with a "vigorous, buoyant rally from bell to bell". Even Rockefeller joined the myriad buyers. Shares soared. It seemed that the worst was over.

The New York Times was optimistic:

"It is thought that stocks will become stabilized at their actual worth levels, some higher and some lower than the present ones, and that the selling prices will be guided in the immediate future by the worth of each particular security, based on its dividend record, earnings ability and prospects. Little is heard in Wall Street these days about 'putting stocks up."

But it was not long before irate customers began blaming their stupendous losses on advice they received from their brokers. Alec Wilder, a songwriter in New York in 1929, interviewed by Stud Terkel in "Hard Times" four decades later, described this typical exchange with his money manager:

"I knew something was terribly wrong because I heard bellboys, everybody, talking about the stock market. About six weeks before the Wall Street Crash, I persuaded my mother in Rochester to let me talk to our family adviser. I wanted to sell stock which had been left me by my father. He got very sentimental: 'Oh your father wouldn't have liked you to do that.' He was so persuasive, I said O.K. I could have sold it for $160,000. Four years later, I sold it for $4,000."

coinlieutenant · January 22, 2008 8:27AM

History may not repeat, but it sure seems to rhyme sometimes.

pharmer · January 22, 2008 8:36AM

This record is broken...This record is broken...This record is broken...

stockwiz · January 22, 2008 8:38AM

I was hoping it would have been black tuesday.. as it stands most stocks are still too expensive to be worth the money.

pharmer · January 22, 2008 8:39AM

<< I was hoping it would have been black tuesday.. as it stands most stocks are still too expensive to be worth the money. >>

Hey, get in line! EVERYONE seems to have been hoping for black Tuesday! This place is NUTS!

coinlieutenant · January 22, 2008 8:48AM

I dont want the market to crash...

So much for the crash!

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