I was wrong about gold...

MoneyLA · January 10, 2008 5:55AM

I report daily on gold prices, and I admit I was wrong. I thought the recent pennant break out would take gold to $890 and I said that in my daily reports. Now spot gold is at 893 and the intra day high topped 895. This made me take another look at the one year chart for gold.

if the current spike from the pennant formation follows the last break out, then we are in store for a $200 rally in gold from the break out point. That should take the price of gold to about $1,000 an ounce.

this amazes me. But as I said in my latest report-- use caution. Even rising markets don't move in a straight line. There is still risk of a sell off whether it be profit taking or a change in the markets.

ricko · January 10, 2008 5:58AM

Thanks for the inputs... Cheers, RickO

BECOKA · January 10, 2008 6:00AM

BlindedByEgo · January 10, 2008 6:10AM

When I left after Christmas for Hawaii, gold was ranging $795-$805. When I returned, it was up over $850 and continues to climb. I need to go to the islands more often

RedTiger · January 10, 2008 6:54AM

I just wrote in my blog, that the current time is a high risk time to buy gold or silver for traders. However, I still think we are in the early phases of a secular bull market (long term bull market). One thing I did not mention in my latest blog entry is that gold stocks have lagged the rally. Many pundits look at this and see this as a red flag. The traditional use as an indicator, is that gold stocks lead the spot price higher, and also on the downside. So if this follows, the rally is in danger territory for the short term.

As always, the average person should ignore the day-to-day fluctuations. The average person is best off diversifying into age appropriate assets, to me that means a small percentage (2% or 3%) in gold for the average person. When building or liquidating a position, do it in small increments so as to get an average price going in, and an average price getting out. Only the extremely lucky (and liars) buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

Keep in mind those that seek and take investment advice from places like this coin forum, tend to lose money, often lots of it. Be careful, almost everyone is a genius in a bull market.

HonoluluDude · January 10, 2008 7:01AM

<< One thing I did not mention in my latest blog entry is that gold stocks have lagged the rally. Many pundits look at this and see this as a red flag. >>

The HUI broke out to a new high today, and has been rallying for weeks. Not sure what you mean by lagging.

Rarity · January 10, 2008 7:07AM

<< 
Only the extremely lucky (and liars) buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
Be careful, almost everyone is a genius in a bull market. >>

I bought some gold in 2003 when it was trading at $325/oz simply because I thought gold should appreciate due to the Iraq war, which had just started, and the higher cost of consumer goods. Back then, I could never imagine gold would go as high as $890. In the summer of 2005, my sister asked me if she should buy AGE bullion coins and I told her not to because gold was already at $500/oz. My advice to her was to wait for gold to drop back to the low 400s but it never did. So I agree that buy low happens just because of luck but sell high is next to impossible because no one can correctly call the market top.

RedTiger · January 10, 2008 7:09AM

<< 

<< One thing I did not mention in my latest blog entry is that gold stocks have lagged the rally. Many pundits look at this and see this as a red flag. >>

The HUI broke out to a new high today, and has been rallying for weeks. Not sure what you mean by lagging. >>

I am tracking GDX which still hasn't made a new high, even though GLD has been in new highs for several days now. GDX is what I trade, so that is what I track.

edit to add GLD chart, see that GDX made the high back in Nov '07 and GLD was much lower. GDX definitely underperforming during this leg of the rally.

vplite · January 10, 2008 7:16AM

<< I report daily on gold prices, and I admit I was wrong. I thought the recent pennant break out would take gold to $890 and I said that in my daily reports. Now spot gold is at 893 and the intra day high topped 895. This made me take another look at the one year chart for gold.

if the current spike from the pennant formation follows the last break out, then we are in store for a $200 rally in gold from the break out point. That should take the price of gold to about $1,000 an ounce.

this amazes me. But as I said in my latest report-- use caution. Even rising markets don't move in a straight line. There is still risk of a sell off whether it be profit taking or a change in the markets >>

(bold added)

So you are saying there are occasions when there is not the risk of a sell off?

You must be embarrassed to have "predicted" gold would go to $890, and see it go to $895.

HonoluluDude · January 10, 2008 7:24AM

<< edit to add GLD chart, see that GDX made the high back in Nov '07 and GLD was much lower. GDX definitely underperforming during this leg of the rally. >>

Ok, see what you mean. I did a 3-month GDX chart with spot gold. Spot gold is slightly outperforming it.

MoneyLA · January 10, 2008 3:13PM

vplite responded to my post. he said:

"So you are saying there are occasions when there is not the risk of a sell off?"

there is always risk of a sell off, but when I said gold in this spike might reach $1,000 I didnt want anyone to think that the risk of a sell off was low prior to reaching that $1,000 point.

vplite also said: "You must be embarrassed to have "predicted" gold would go to $890, and see it go to $895." No, I am not embarrased to see gold reach 895 when I said it would go to 890. but I am embarassed to have misread the chart and not seen that gold could easily move up to the 1,000 per ounce level.

jmski52 · January 11, 2008 4:03AM

"So you are saying there are occasions when there is not the risk of a sell off?"

There is always a risk of an emotional market response to various news items on a given day. In fact, at these elevated levels, I would expect volatility to become the norm.

Now the kicker. Interest rates are headed down in the Fed's new attempt to salvage the stock market and banks. This has one-way implications for the dollar, and in turn - for precious metals.

The best way to buy gold is to average in over time. There is no risk-free way to do it, but the market risk can be spread out. Only buy what you can afford, and only make a committment to buy what you are prepared to live with.

Owning gold or platinum or silver sure beats sitting around and watching your dollar-denominated investments evaporate in purchasing power. Until the government's spending and socialistic tendencies are halted, there's really no reason to think that gold's price trend will reverse.

In my mind, increased volatility could either be a sign of a top, or it could be a sign of the furious thrashing-around that is going on behind the scenes in an attempt to salvage the stock market and banks. I suspect that it's the latter, this time.

Russ · January 11, 2008 5:18AM

I keep telling you people that you don't need all this technical analysis crap. Just watch what I do. If I sell some, it's a buy signal. If I buy some, it's a sell signal.

Russ, NCNE

Deadhorse · January 11, 2008 6:24AM

<< I keep telling you people that you don't need all this technical analysis crap. Just watch what I do. If I sell some, it's a buy signal. If I buy some, it's a sell signal.

Russ, NCNE >>

Wait, I thought that when you sold silver, it was a time to wait a day or so as it rises and then sell.

It worked for me this week. I took a nice profit on some 100 ounce bars just yesterday, thanks to you selling earlier in the week.

Russ · January 11, 2008 6:42AM

<< Wait, I thought that when you sold silver, it was a time to wait a day or so as it rises and then sell.

It worked for me this week. I took a nice profit on some 100 ounce bars just yesterday, thanks to you selling earlier in the week. >>

Well, that's one way to play the Russ Barometer™.

Russ, NCNE

Deadhorse · January 11, 2008 6:54AM

<< 

<< Wait, I thought that when you sold silver, it was a time to wait a day or so as it rises and then sell.

It worked for me this week. I took a nice profit on some 100 ounce bars just yesterday, thanks to you selling earlier in the week. >>

Well, that's one way to play the Russ Barometer™.

Russ, NCNE >>

Thanks Ferengi.

Have you considered a "Grand Nagus Newsletter"?

As long as you didn't post your moves publicly on the board, I'd subscribe.

MORGANHUNTER2 · January 11, 2008 6:56AM

<< I keep telling you people that you don't need all this technical analysis crap. Just watch what I do. If I sell some, it's a buy signal. If I buy some, it's a sell signal.

Russ, NCNE >>

Will you PLEASE go buy another 100 oz or more this weekend

I want to sell on Tuesday when the price rockets to 22.

and pick up some gold stuff while your at it- i have about 25 oz in crappy stuff I want to hit over the K mark.

Thank you for your participation..

Russ · January 11, 2008 6:58AM

<< Have you considered a "Grand Nagus Newsletter"?

As long as you didn't post your moves publicly on the board, I'd subscribe. >>

In the case of this last move, you can thank the IRS.

(Quarterly tax payment).

Russ, NCNE

pontiacinf · January 11, 2008 7:09AM

<< I report daily on gold prices, and I admit I was wrong. I thought the recent pennant break out would take gold to $890 and I said that in my daily reports. Now spot gold is at 893 and the intra day high topped 895. This made me take another look at the one year chart for gold.

if the current spike from the pennant formation follows the last break out, then we are in store for a $200 rally in gold from the break out point. That should take the price of gold to about $1,000 an ounce.

this amazes me. But as I said in my latest report-- use caution. Even rising markets don't move in a straight line. There is still risk of a sell off whether it be profit taking or a change in the markets. >>

this thread deffinately makes you stand out from the rest of the metals pack here, as had they made a statement and were proved wrong, they would just disappear rather than admit it

I was wrong about gold...

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