How many 1929 Saints left?

Joe26 · December 3, 2007 9:54AM

I've been reading David Bowers book on Double Eagles and he estimates there are 1,250 to 1,750 MS Saints of this year left. That's quite a few more than the other Fab 5 Saints. I've seen other sources say the number is much lower (couple hundred). So how many are left?

123cents · December 3, 2007 10:02AM

PCGS has graded 171 and NGC has graded 121. Many could have been resubmitted.

MrEureka · December 3, 2007 10:10AM

I've been reading David Bowers book on Double Eagles and he estimates there are 1,250 to 1,750 MS Saints of this year left.

Sounds like a typo.

Then again, how many does he estimate for the later dates?

Joe26 · December 3, 2007 10:46AM

1930-S 40-60
1931 80-120
1931-D 100-150
1932 60-80

I was looking at a 1929 Saint in the Heritage FUN sale and they seemed to think Mr. Bowers estimate was incorrect.

RWB · December 3, 2007 10:47AM

My mint-sewn bag had 250 in it. Will have to check the bank box.

coinkat · December 3, 2007 11:08AM

typo

BBN · December 3, 2007 11:21AM

any explanation of why only that many exist? Is that all that survived FDR's raid or was that all that was made?

Another question. How did all of the old gold survive? Alot of illegal hoarding?

MrEureka · December 3, 2007 11:46AM

I guess I wouldn't put away a 1929 Saint without first talking to QDB!

ProofArtworkonCircs · December 3, 2007 3:45PM

I can think of two reasos why late date gold is scarce.
1) The treasury was holding them as backing for gold certificates.
2) You know gold is going out of circulation. What are you as a collector going to save - current dates or golden oldies?

Holding gold coins as part of a coin collection was perfectly legal as a listed exemption to the rules along with jewelry.
However there were liberal limits on the number of quarter eagles you could hold.

Julian · December 4, 2007 12:19AM

I also think that Dave's estimate is too high, but if you accept the other dates as listed prior, then I would estimate that there are at least 500 1929's in existence.

ricko · December 4, 2007 12:29AM

Has anyone thought to query QDB? He may either say it was a typo or provide good reason for his estimate. Cheers, RickO

Julian · December 4, 2007 1:13AM

I just did.

CaptHenway · December 4, 2007 1:15AM

<< I also think that Dave's estimate is too high, but if you accept the other dates as listed prior, then I would estimate that there are at least 500 1929's in existence. >>

I personally would be more inclined to say that there are at most 500 1929's in existence, but yield to your experience.
TD

CaptHenway · December 4, 2007 1:16AM

<< I just did. >>

What he say?

saintguru · December 4, 2007 1:42AM

QDB's numbers are off on many of the rarities. I hate to burst the bubble, but I think the Double Eagle book is quite innacurate in many regars, with the exception of his editorial on the history of the series.

The 1929 until a few years ago was virtually impossible to find in MS65. Up until 2005 there was one single PCGS 65 in Heritage's archives! The price guide in early 2005 was around 29K...and then one sold privately for 41K (I recall that quite well

) That was around 2004. The next two that come for sale fetched $77K and $97K! It was by far, the most overlooked and underappreciated Saint in GEM for years.

As for the pop87 MS64's...I highly doubt that number is close to accurate. With GEMS being so scarce you had a lot of cracking out going on. Could the actual number be more like 50? Maybe, maybe less. The 65 is scarcer than the 1931 and 1932, yet the 1929 was wrongly considered the most populous of the Fab Five. That's because of themisleading number of 64's. I don't doubt that there are more total 1929's than any of the other FF's, but there are many that simply are recounts from crackouts.

1929 Saints were NEVER put into circulation by design. They were always available from the mint cashier, but that's it. Collectors or peopoe who just wanted a new coin would go get them, or order them via main for $20.17 delivered.

Too much gold was exiting the country by 1929, reaching monstrous proportions by 1931. That's why FDR, on the advice of William H. Woodin, created the Gold Act of 1933.

So...1250 to 1750 coins? PCGS has 171 graded....NGC has 121? (both unlikely) I'd bet my 1929 that the number is half the QDB estimate!

Try to find them. The numbers are not there. And I don;t buy the argument that there are many raw coins anymore. Not at these prices. Not in Davey Jones' locker, not anywhere!

Joe26 · December 4, 2007 2:34AM

In some of the descriptions (for the 1914-D) he gives "a nod to importers of gold coins, most of whom keep their secrets well, but in many instances were generous to provide off-the-record indications of rarity for use the present work." Looks like some of those sources were off the mark and an updated guide is needed.

Julian · December 4, 2007 2:54AM

Dave responded to me:

Thanks, Julian

I don’t read the forum, so it is always nice when you send stuff. As to S-G $20 coins it is my opinion that only a tiny percentage of most dates and mm have been certified. Huge numbers of coins of various issues have been sold to investors and collectors who are not at all into the certification game.

-

Further, as a reality check we know how many Unc 1883-CC and 1884-CC $1 coins, for example, were specifically sold at a premium to collectors, and yet only a small % of these have been certified.

-

If someone would care to edit/audit my estimates and communicate with me, given reasons, I’d certainly consider them for the next edition go-round. However, I am not part of the philosophy to make everything sound rare just because of certification data.

-

Thanks again,

DAVE B

RYK · December 4, 2007 6:53AM

Further, as a reality check we know how many Unc 1883-CC and 1884-CC $1 coins, for example, were specifically sold at a premium to collectors, and yet only a small % of these have been certified.

With all due respect to QDB, I do not accept this analogy, as there are many reasons why only a fraction of the common date GSA CC Morgans would be raw, not the least of which are that they are relatively inexpensive and extremely common. I also think his estimates are way off for the 1929, and I think Jay B has a better handle on this than QDB.

mgoodm3 · December 4, 2007 6:55AM

Where's Sainty when you need him?

Longacre · December 4, 2007 6:56AM

I'm getting chest pains after reading RYK's response.

Aegis3 · December 4, 2007 8:44AM

<< Further, as a reality check we know how many Unc 1883-CC and 1884-CC $1 coins, for example, were specifically sold at a premium to collectors, and yet only a small % of these have been certified.

With all due respect to QDB, I do not accept this analogy, as there are many reasons why only a fraction of the common date GSA CC Morgans would be raw, not the least of which are that they are relatively inexpensive and extremely common. I also think his estimates are way off for the 1929, and I think Jay B has a better handle on this than QDB. >>

Well, I am one who thinks that the proportion of slabbed coins is typically highly overestimated on these forums. For example (and yes, I'll admit they are "common") looks at the slab numbers for the 1909-S VDB Lincoln and the 1916-D Mercury, coins which should be authenticated in any grade. While as a coin does get more rare, the slabbed proportion does seem to increase, if there are about 300 occurrences of slabbing at the big two services, frankly, even counting for resubmissions, the 1250-1750 estimate wouldn't be absurd. Perhaps it is high, but frankly, an estimate of 500 and one of 1250 really aren't that different. I'd check auction data if I wanted a good population estimate.

saintguru · December 4, 2007 8:45AM

<< Where's Sainty when you need him? >>

What am I, the invisible man?

I think QDB is wrong across the board on the pops of all the rare Saints. To think that only a small or modest percentage is slabbed might have been true 20 years ago but I don't buy that for a second today. There's been a huge amount of Saints slabbed since they started iin 1987 and I'd doubt that there's a few handfuls of rare dates sitting around unknown.

I recall once a dealer who thought he knew a lot about Saints telling ne that he'd NEVER buy a Fab Five date because he's "SURE" they'll find bags of them in Europe.

What he failed to know is that the Treasury never shipped bags of gold overseas during those years.

saintguru · December 4, 2007 8:46AM

<< 

<< Further, as a reality check we know how many Unc 1883-CC and 1884-CC $1 coins, for example, were specifically sold at a premium to collectors, and yet only a small % of these have been certified.

With all due respect to QDB, I do not accept this analogy, as there are many reasons why only a fraction of the common date GSA CC Morgans would be raw, not the least of which are that they are relatively inexpensive and extremely common. I also think his estimates are way off for the 1929, and I think Jay B has a better handle on this than QDB. >>

Well, I am one who thinks that the proportion of slabbed coins is typically highly overestimated on these forums. For example (and yes, I'll admit they are "common") looks at the slab numbers for the 1909-S VDB Lincoln and the 1916-D Mercury, coins which should be authenticated in any grade. While as a coin does get more rare, the slabbed proportion does seem to increase, if there are about 300 occurrences of slabbing at the big two services, frankly, even counting for resubmissions, the 1250-1750 estimate wouldn't be absurd. Perhaps it is high, but frankly, an estimate of 500 and one of 1250 really aren't that different. I'd check auction data if I wanted a good population estimate. >>

When you do that you'll think 500 is high.

RWB · December 4, 2007 10:14AM

What he failed to know is that the Treasury never shipped bags of gold overseas during those years.

Treasury and other governmental gold transactions were usually in bar form with physical shipment rarely occurring. But, private transactions could be either bars or coin, and export and import were common.

Businesses and speculators shipped boxes ($40,000 face) of double eagles to Europe and South America on a regular basis both in payment of invoices and speculation on shifts in the gold point and currency values during the 1920s. At that time the US was the only major country that had reinstituted full convertibility of currency after the war.

After the US stock market crashes of 1929-1930, foreign hoarding became an important motivation for export of US gold coins – mostly $20 and some $10. Agents bought boxes at face value from US banks and shipped to Europe and some elsewhere including Japan. Foreign banks, particularly those in France and Belgium, resold the coins for 5% to 20% over face to individuals wanting gold to hoard but who could not afford the standard 400-oz bars. Export for foreign hoarding was not tracked until September 1931 when estimates varied from $1MM to $5MM per week. This gold was “sterilized” – had no commercial function – when it landed in European hoards.

saintguru · December 4, 2007 12:09PM

Roger. I haven't read anywhere that bags of 1929-1932 Saints were released form the Mint or Treasury. The policy supposedly was that they were only available for exchange for old gold at the window or for collectors via mail. Perhaps someone was shipping previous dates, but as far as I know the Fab Five simply was stored in mint vaults and never released for any use at all. Hence the very small numbers of certified coins. I never jeard of any mini-hoards being found. The only accounting was that someone in Australia had about 10 1931-D's in a storage box that were ~MS63/64's.....that's all I ever heard about.

??????

RWB · December 5, 2007 2:41AM

Re: Documenting treasury distribution.
So far, I've located nothing in that era withholding distribution of double eagles until 1933. Such documents might exist and just have not been located, or someone might have located them but has not published the information. US Mint HQ has the HQ production journal - it is not in NARA.

As far as export, no one knows what dates were exported in the 1920s; however, businesses strongly preferred new coin. Speculators might have accepted anything that was available from the NYC banks. The banks tried to end the hoarding export themselves...the FRB never got into the act.

CaptHenway · December 5, 2007 3:22AM

If you have Dave Bowers book on coin hoards, read the little chapter I wrote about a hoard of $20s here in Chicago that had one each 1929, 1930-S, 1931-P&D and 1932.

I would assume that the person who put them away bought them from a dealer in late 1932 or early 1933.
TD

Aegis3 · December 5, 2007 8:29AM

<< 

<< 

<< Further, as a reality check we know how many Unc 1883-CC and 1884-CC $1 coins, for example, were specifically sold at a premium to collectors, and yet only a small % of these have been certified.

With all due respect to QDB, I do not accept this analogy, as there are many reasons why only a fraction of the common date GSA CC Morgans would be raw, not the least of which are that they are relatively inexpensive and extremely common. I also think his estimates are way off for the 1929, and I think Jay B has a better handle on this than QDB. >>

Well, I am one who thinks that the proportion of slabbed coins is typically highly overestimated on these forums. For example (and yes, I'll admit they are "common") looks at the slab numbers for the 1909-S VDB Lincoln and the 1916-D Mercury, coins which should be authenticated in any grade. While as a coin does get more rare, the slabbed proportion does seem to increase, if there are about 300 occurrences of slabbing at the big two services, frankly, even counting for resubmissions, the 1250-1750 estimate wouldn't be absurd. Perhaps it is high, but frankly, an estimate of 500 and one of 1250 really aren't that different. I'd check auction data if I wanted a good population estimate. >>

When you do that you'll think 500 is high. >>

Well, just doing the quick online lookup (rather than going to print) does seem to suggest that the QDB estimate is high. 500 Does not seem out of line however. I'd give a wide guess of 300-750. Also, since I decided to actually look at the QDB book today (yeah, should have done so yesterday), it's clear his estimate was based on an assumption of nearly 1000 slabbed, rather than nearly 300. I'd so lop off 700/900 from the low/high end of his estimate range.

How many 1929 Saints left?

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