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How does the coin market hold up in a recession.....
theump
Posts: 634 ✭✭
I was not collecting during the last recession of 1990. I was wondering, in a recession how does the coin market hold up? I believe this country is in the worst economic shape in it's history and a doozie of a recession, if not a depression is about to hit. During times like these, I would think the coin market would be hit hard, as many folks would have to part with their coins for cash needs, thus depressing prices.
I believe gold is going to well north of $1500, so I am not concerned about my gold coins.
I believe gold is going to well north of $1500, so I am not concerned about my gold coins.
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At that time, I could go to my local shows in northern NJ and virtually bowl down the aisles, there were so few collectors there. Dealer inventory stayed the same month after month and selling a coin to a dealer was really difficult - everything was a "problem coin" and they either didn't want it or they would pay a very small price for it. On the other hand, if you wanted to buy something that was already in their inventory (for cash, not trade), they were eager to reduce their price to make the sale.
For collectors, the frustrating thing was that nice coins were completely absent from the market - collectors sold their most common coins first and held on to their nicer coins as long as they could.
Check out the Southern Gold Society
Specifics? Like jobs, GDP, inflation figures?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>"I believe this country is in the worst economic shape in it's history"
Specifics? Like jobs, GDP, inflation figures? >>
1. First and foremost the housing situation
2. Runaway inflation (oil, commodities)
3. Lack of leadership
4. National Debt
5. Slowing economy
6. Falling dollar
7. Derivative situation at the banks and brokers/credit cruch
8. Falling interest rate/deflationary spiral (stagflation)
I expect all these problems to get much worse before they get better.
With all that, it has been so long since a serious recession where people are out of work that it is difficult to predict what will happen. Many of the dealers and collectors were not around the last time. A lot depends on how the dealers are positioned. If there are a lot of dealers with inventory bought with borrowed money, at higher coin prices, if prices start to dip, they may have to liquidate and try to find other work.
Collectors that still have jobs or income may want to use some of that money to help friends or family through hard times rather than spend it on hobbies. I know some don't have any friends or family, but there are plenty that do, and it is at the margins that markets tip over and fall.
Falling prices have a way of becoming self-fulfilling. As prices fall, people learn to wait for lower prices and bargains instead of stretching and buying up. Virtually all markets work this way, those that coins are different are thinking wishfully.
<< <i>
<< <i>"I believe this country is in the worst economic shape in it's history"
Specifics? Like jobs, GDP, inflation figures? >>
1. First and foremost the housing situation
2. Runaway inflation (oil, commodities)
3. Lack of leadership
4. National Debt
5. Slowing economy
6. Falling dollar
7. Derivative situation at the banks and brokers/credit cruch
8. Falling interest rate/deflationary spiral (stagflation)
I expect all these problems to get much worse before they get better. >>
To counter that list:
GDP strong
Trade deficit lower
Unemployment still low
Stock market still near record highs despite the recent correction
Long bond prices moving up--this means there is a lot of confidence in US debt obligations. This last bit is most telling. The bond market often leads the other markets, and there is little way to manipulate this huge trillions of dollar size world wide market. Anyone that can manipulate it in a significant way, also has the power to save the economy or sink it.
When the headlines are about steadily increasing unemployment, long term interest rates through the roof, high wage inflation (not commodity inflation), it will look like recession. Seems like people have forgotten what hard times are like that any minor turbulence and they go around like Chicken Little. Subprime is a dislocation. However, so was Enron, so was the hedge fund disaster of a couple years back, so was each financial crisis that happens about every other year on average. Each time, the Chicken Little's of the world told us the sky was falling. One day, the sky may fall, but I doubt it will be these Chicken Little newsletter writers that make their money selling fear that will have the correct timing of the event.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Now, you said worst economy in our history. How does that square with all this?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>Saying that this country is in its worst economic shape of its life is laughable. When considering that the unemployement rate during the Great Depression was 25%, and that people were begging for anything to it.. goes to show that some people have a very bad perception of past events. Sorry if I sound a bit harsh, but I cannot stand comments as ignorant as the one by the OP. >>
I agree, bad is like some stories that I have heard from the past, bad is where you have no clothes to wear when it is cold and where you have no food to eat.
San Diego, CA
First of all, the comment does not come from ignorance but from experience and being in the industry.
The unemployment numbers are a crock. In each number, there is something call a birth/death model. This is a number that the gov't arbitrarily adds the the ultimate number. Last month the birth/death number was 133k. In laymans terms, the gov't just decided to add 133k to the official number. Back in the late 90's, early 2000's the economy was adding 250k-300k per month.
If you look at the official inflation number it is in check. Howver, let's look at real world. The gov't number is excluding food and energy. What they don't count?
Subprime is much more than a dislocation. The problem in itself has now become more than a mortgage problem, it is not a credit derivative situation. And these derivatieve run into the TRILLIONS. (Yes, trillions)
Goto www.jsmineset.com to read more about the credit derivative situation. Text
I believe the banks and brokers are not forthcoming in the actual amount of their mortgage/derivative losses because they simply do not know the true extent of the damage. It is also now past the point where it is just a subprime problem. Prime Mtg's are also being affected. Look at E-Trade financials blowup from last night.
In actuallity, the Fed is in a box. How, with the markets near their highs, oil, gold, and other commodities at record highs could the fed be cutting rates. They should be raising. But they will conitue to cut until they take rates much, much lower. They are going to foresake the dollar for growth. Someone asked about the lower trade deficit. The lower dollar works to lower the trade deficit. However, that is somewhat offset by the higher oil prices. IMO, you will not see a meaningful dollar bounce until it hits .72.
This is why I have been in gold since $400. I eventually expect gold to top over $1600.
Yes, the country is in the worst economic shape of it's history. The Fed, is trying to keep that fact hidden.
I hope this explains away some of your perceived ignorance on my part.
I will go on to argue that in the 30's, the personal debt situation wasn't even close to what it is today. How many Americans are in homes they can't even barely begin to afford. (And, even giving those in ARM's a 6% 30yr fixed, won't help them--they simply can't afford their homes given their income.) What about those who are seriosly in hock due to home equity loans? Loans which prolly can't be re-fied thanks to falling home prices. Speaking of which, the housing market has yet to reach the next stage where home prices start to RAPIDLY fall.
But if you choose to ignore everything that is out there, be my guest. But if you do, then I guess you believe Henry Paulson, when he says that America believes in a strong dollar policy. And, while you are at it, by all means, please, keep watching CNBC. All is fine.
<< <i>For collectors, the frustrating thing was that nice coins were completely absent from the market - collectors sold their most common coins first and held on to their nicer coins as long as they could. >>
Seems like all I hear about these days are how scarce truely nice coins are. After reading this thread - it all makes sense now.
Via Powerlineblog, by John Hinderacker. Link below.
October 5, 2007
The Best Economy Ever?
It's time to start taking seriously the proposition that the American economy under the Bush administration is the best in the nation's history. This morning the White House expressed entirely appropriate pride in the country's economic achievements on its watch:
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new jobs figures – 110,000 jobs created in September. September 2007 is the 49th consecutive month of job growth, setting a new record for the longest uninterrupted expansion of the U.S. labor market. Significant upward revisions to employment in July and August mean employment growth has averaged 97,000 per month over the last three months. Since August 2003, our economy has created more than 8.1 million jobs, and the unemployment rate remains low at 4.7 percent.
Real after-tax per capita personal income has increased by over 12.5 percent – an average of over $3,750 per person – since President Bush took office. More than 30 percent of the Nation's net worth has been added since the President's 2003 tax cuts.
Real wages have grown 2.2 percent over the 12 months that ended in August. This is much higher than the average growth rate during the 1990s, and it means an extra $1,266 in the past year for a family with two average wage earners.
Real GDP grew at a strong 3.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2007. The economy has now experienced nearly six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.7 percent a year since the turnaround in 2001.
The stock market is at record highs, unemployment continues at historic lows. What's not to like? Of course, one can always question the link between prosperity (or the lack thereof) and government policies. But in President Bush's case, it seems pretty obvious that his tax cuts prevented what could have been a disastrous downward spiral. At a time when our economy was subject to the double-whammy of recession and the bursting of the tech bubble, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 could easily have sent the economy into a tailspin.
By the same token, I don't think any serious observer doubts that the policies the Democrats want to adopt will damage the economy. The Democrats want higher taxes:
If Congress lets Bush's tax cuts expire, it would increase taxes by more than $1,800, on the average, for a family of four making $60,000 dollars a year. Small business owners would see their taxes go up by almost $4,000, and families with children would pay an additional $500 per child.
Beyond that, the adverse economic consequences of socialized medicine are incalculable. And we haven't mentioned what would happen if the federal government started mandating the shut-down of industry so as to reduce carbon emissions in a superstitious attempt to control the weather, while China and India do nothing of the sort.
I became a Republican mostly because experience and observation taught me that free enterprise works, and socialism doesn't. Those issues have been more or less off the table in recent years because of the downfall of international socialism, the relatively enterprise-friendly Clinton administration and the Republicans' failure to control spending while they controlled Congress. But the economic issues may be about to emerge once again, as Americans consider whether they want to abandon the successful policies of the Bush administration.
To comment on this post, go here.
Posted by John at 8:03 PM | |
Link
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
As an economist, I always hate to engage in debate with people who know more economics than do economists, but every once in a while I try. Let me tackle three points you made: The birth/death model, the CPI excluding food and energy, and this is the worst economic time in U.S. history.
First, the birth/death model. The point here is that the BLS (the government agency that collects data for and then calculates the unemployment rate) wants the unemployment rate to be as accurate as possible. They have a huge survey of firms (about 1/3 of all nonfarm payroll workers) and this survey is the basis for most of the data they create and use. But they cannot survey new businesses which form in the first few months of their existence. So the BLS used historical data on these businesses to statistically estimate (hardly arbitrarily!) the number of jobs that are created by births of new firms minus the jobs lost by the deaths of old firms. In October it added 103,000 jobs (in January it subtracted 175,000 jobs). Incidentally, the total number of jobs is 146 million, so the birth/death model accounts for about 0.12%--one tenth of one percent. I hardly think this number is worth getting upset about.
Second, the government (the BLS again) does indeed calculate a CPI that excludes food and energy. It also calculates a lot of CPIs that include food and energy. To state that the "The gov't number is excluding food and energy. What they don't count?" is essentially to state that "I don't really know what the government calculates." Now some officials and some analysts concentrate in the CPI that excludes food and energy. I do not agree with this procedure. But they have a reason for so doing: Food and energy prices are assumed to be determined by factors other than Fed monetary policy. For instance, OPEC has a huge influence on the price of energy and the growing season (good or bad?) has a huge influence on the price of food. So if one wants to measure the effect of Fed policy on prices in our economy, these prices should be excluded. You can agree with this position or disagree (as I do and as, I presume, theump does) but there is at least a reasonable rationale for it.
Thurd, this is far from the worst economic time in U.S. history. Theump makes the point that many Americans are in homes they can't afford. I have to tell you that in the 1930s many Americans simply were not in homes. It probably won't take most people too long to decide which is the worst situation. If you honesty think this is the worst economic time, you are entitled to this view. But I assure you that on any objective measure, it's incorrect.
Sure, you can look at face value everything is fine and dandy. Look under the headlines and in the real world to see the whole story. Check back in one year and then see where we are.
<< <i>Tis was a good time to buy...bad time to sell. The coin market is not immune to recessions... >>
Whatever term you want to call it Michigan is in really bad shape due to the decline of the US auto industry.
It will be interesting to see what effect this has on the MSNS show in Dearborn in a few weeks, the economic situation has gotten much
worse over the past year in this state. The first day of the show will really tell the story I believe as it usually packed with people.
<< <i>
<< <i>Tis was a good time to buy...bad time to sell. The coin market is not immune to recessions... >>
Whatever term you want to call it Michigan is in really bad shape due to the decline of the US auto industry.
It will be interesting to see what effect this has on the MSNS show in Dearborn in a few weeks, the economic situation has gotten much
worse over the past year in this state. The first day of the show will really tell the story I believe as it usually packed with people. >>
But wait, according to the headlines, CNBC, gov't stats, and the economists, everything is hunky dory!
Economic modeling is fascinating stuff, but only when the academics start getting laid off will the real world matter. It's just theory to that point.
It is a hugely different world today than in the 30's - different expectations and different financial controls. My concern today is that the consumer driven US economy is controlled to a great extent by decisions made based on sentiment and popular opinions, which are in a great part formed through media reporting of govenment figures.
Economists do run the world.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
This would also be the media non-reporting of the good numbers as cited above. The Deciders are quick to headline anything negative, and either bury or not report at all the good news. The OP may be getting his "news" from the mainstream media, and thus can be forgiven for his beliefs. Happily, there are facts to counter those beliefs.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
What good do specifics do from a liar? If a known thief quotes you impressive gains on his new real estate development, are you going to believe it and then factor it into your life's plan?
I believe this country is in the worst economic shape in it's history"
Specifics? Like jobs, GDP, inflation figures?
To counter that list:
GDP strong
Trade deficit lower
Unemployment still low
Stock market still near record highs despite the recent correction
Long bond prices moving up--this means there is a lot of confidence in US debt obligations. This last bit is most telling. The bond market often leads the other markets, and there is little way to manipulate this huge trillions of dollar size world wide market. Anyone that can manipulate it in a significant way, also has the power to save the economy or sink it.
It all depends if you believe the published stats. I know I don't.
GDP is shrinking and only inflation and other tricks keep it at 2-3%.
Tricks such as the sales of major overseas aircraft purchases that are not actually consumated. Those sales remain counted and are not removed in the final numbers since the retractions occur months later. There are lots of tricks. Look at the change from GNP to GDP.
Part of this was being able to count monetary flows as production.
One day I looked up why we gave up the old GNP I learned in school. Once I read the new definitions, I realized why the shift occurred....it makes the numbers better and easier to meet.
The October GDP and Jobs numbers are shameful. We had a great GDP number because the inflation deflator was at an absurdly low 0.8%. Yes, we had 0.8% inflation during the 3rd quarter!! The BLS said so! I trust them. The GDP deflator typically is much lower than the CPI....and we already know of the tricks used in that. Take away that absurd 0.8% inflation factor and substitute something more reasonable like 2.5-3% and that "great" GDP falls right back to the norm. Whatever it takes to pump the market.
When the headlines are about steadily increasing unemployment, long term interest rates through the roof, high wage inflation (not commodity inflation), it will look like recession. Seems like people have forgotten what hard times are like that any minor turbulence and they go around like Chicken Little. Subprime is a dislocation. However, so was Enron, so was the hedge fund disaster of a couple years back, so was each financial crisis that happens about every other year on average. Each time, the Chicken Little's of the world told us the sky was falling. One day, the sky may fall, but I doubt it will be these Chicken Little newsletter writers that make their money selling fear that will have the correct timing of the event.
We had these same discussions with dollardude on the main gold thread back in 2004-2005 about how great the stock market was going to be and how gold was already way overpriced and headed back to the sub-$300 basement. That same discussion will be occurring until gold hits $1000 or more. It was wrong then and will be wrong in the future. Dollardude is gone, but I see there are others like 2nd Republic who seem to be his incarnation.
number of jobs that are created by births of new firms minus the jobs lost by the deaths of old firms. In October it added 103,000 jobs (in January it subtracted 175,000 jobs). Incidentally, the total number of jobs is 146 million, so the birth/death model accounts for about 0.12%--one tenth of one percent. I hardly think this number is worth getting upset about.
But you gloss over the real picture. You can't look at the monthly numbers on their own. Look at the entire year for the birth death model. Some months are low or even negative but MOST are over 100,000. The total birth death model input for new jobs each year is around 950,000-1,000,000 jobs. This is a computer input. Nearly a million jobs will be added every year regardless of the shape of the economy - good or bad....depression, recession or booming. This is all done by a black box....not surveys. And it takes months or years to make those corrections. The important thing is to keep the numbers rosy month to month to pump the markets. Corrections later on have much less negative effect. Currently I'd say the BD model accounts for about 100% of the new jobs each year. Imagine that... 100% of the job growth for 2008 is already banked at 1 MILL.
What's even more comical in the October jobs report is that it listed something like 15,000 to 25,000 new jobs in each of the financial and housing construction sectors....while each sector is laying off jobs left and right. How stupid is that? Thank the Birth Death model.
Check the BLS site if you want. They publish a table out 12 months on what jobs they already have in the bank. Good work if you can get it. And while you're there, read about the benefits of improved controls on clothes dryers (10-20 pages) and how those improvements keep the price constant.....all the while you pay more.
What better way to spend one's tax dollars, on clothes dryer studies!
The Constant Price Index (CPI) has been written about at length here. With absurd adjustments for quality adjustments and hedonics, it doesn't make sense. Effectively, 40-50% of the CPI tends to be fixed by design due to using imputed rent. One can make a case that up to 60% of the index is essentially constant through inflationary times, hence it does the job it was designed for.
You will probably never see a 20% CPI again as in 1980 because half of the CPI is effectively constant thanks to adjustments in 1983 and then in the mid-1990's.
If you factor in the dollar index demise from 120 in 2001 to the 75-76 of today, you find that the 13,000 Dow is inflation adjusted to
9500 or less. Yeah, some bull market growth! The paper gains don't even counter the inflation. In that same period gold is up over 200%. That drop in the dollar index is about 6% per year. All the while the CPI is published at around 2-3%. Which do you feel is a more accurate reflection of true inflation, how much the dollar has dropped (ie what it buys) or some stats published by the BLS? Then apply that to your Dow or S&P "profits"....and you get a negative 6 yr. return.
There is so much confidence in US debt obligations that Treasuries are being ignored at the auctions and gold and oil have gone on a tear....while foreign investors are dumping US debt and dollars for tangible asset properites wherever they can. Certainly not doom and gloom, but it is what it is. While we are not at the worst time in our history...we have the potential to exceed all expectations if the wrong moves continue to be made. And I have the utmost confidence that my lawmakers and regulators will not surprise me.
roadrunner
Keep an eye on gold, because if it finally tanks, coins will be right behind it. But lower end and common coins might not fare so well.
You want stuff that is of high quality, original, and sought after by investors and collectors.
roadrunner
<< <i>"which are in a great part formed through media reporting of govenment figures."
This would also be the media non-reporting of the good numbers as cited above. The Deciders are quick to headline anything negative, and either bury or not report at all the good news. The OP may be getting his "news" from the mainstream media, and thus can be forgiven for his beliefs. Happily, there are facts to counter those beliefs. >>
Are you high?
At my job, we have CNBC on all day as background noise, just for the case they break some news. We laugh at them. Trust me, I get and decphier my news from many non mainstream sites.
To CNBC, bad news is good news and good news is great news. Larry Kudlow is a joke.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>To answer the OP's question: good coins will do ok as long as we stay in this stagflationary environment. This is not the early 1990's, at least not yet. It more closely resembles the late 1970's when most coins did fine in a financial recession. But tangibles soared.
Keep an eye on gold, because if it finally tanks, coins will be right behind it. But lower end and common coins might not fare so well.
You want stuff that is of high quality, original, and sought after by investors and collectors.
roadrunner >>
Agreed, right now, we are going through what resembles the late 70's. But the problems are just strarting to come through the cracks after being duct taped over.
No matter how low the Fed lowers rates, it cannot save the economy. At some point, the Fed, in order to save the dollar will have to raise rates dramatically; higher than anyone thinks possible.
I have heard a few smart people (non-economists) suggest the US is headed the way of the Weimar Republic. I don't know if I agree with that---yet.
<< <i>I have heard a few smart people (non-economists) suggest the US is headed the way of the Weimar Republic. I don't know if I agree with that---yet. >>
You can never dismiss that completely, but the simple fact is that history indicates they're almost always crying wolf.
It's like the old saying goes: economists have called 8 of the last 2 recessions.
<< <i>Then you really don't have an excuse for being so completely wrong and saying this is the worst economy in our history. Are there malpractice penalties in your job? >>
I never said this is the worst economy in history. I said the country was in the worst economic shape in history. There is a difference.
A person making $50,000 living in a $1.5 million house he bought with $0 down with an interst only mortage, to all outward appearances doing fine. But how are his finances now that his IO is gone and he is paying whatever interest rate on a house that no doubt is negatively amoritized? And how are the people doing who are now tapped out on their home equity? And finally, what about all the Alt-A and prime mortgages that are in decline. Oh yeah, what about the trillions in credit derivatives that are sinking fast?
Let's give the economy some time before it becomes the worst in hisotry--it's heading there.
Re your comment:
<< <i>Three econometricians went out hunting, and came across a large deer. The first econometrician fired, but missed, by a meter to the left. The second econometrician fired, but also missed, by a meter to the right. The third econometrician didn't fire, but shouted in triumph, "We got it! We got it!" >>
I had not heard that before. I think I'll tell it to some of my econometrician friends!
I recall, the coin market was pretty hot during the late seventies... I consider that to be a recession. The coin market bubble burst sometime in the 80's, (along with gold and silver). but I think that the internet and ebay is creating a more liquid market with people buying and selling the latest us-mint coins to an uneducated coin consuming public.
Theres always demand for the rare dates and types. But whether its speculative or not is hard to say.
good sign that the market is slowing down.
"[There is ] a famous story about two Americans walking down a road. One’s a normal American and the other is an economist. They fall into a deep pit, with very steep sides. The normal American says, “Good heavens, we can’t get out!” And the economist says, “Don’t worry. We’ll just assume a ladder.”
Source: Cognitive dissonance, assuming a ladder and economic hypochondria - George F. Will
1. Those that look at cooked numbers and want to believe
that things have never been better.
2. There are those that look at the world and believe that we are subject
to continual doom. Things are bad and will continue to get worse.
3. There are realists that observe micro and mega trends as well as observe
the obvious in the world around us. These are people that continually read between
the lines and interpret what is said as well as what is not said. All news is biased in
some manner. It can exaggerate either the good or the bad or deep six news that does not
not agree with the corporate news policy. What really matters is how people are
able to interpret what they see and what they hear. Most Government speak means exactly
the opposite of what is being said. It doesn't matter much which political party is doing
the speaking. It is always intended to misdirect and misinform the citizenry from what has
happened, is happening or is about to happen.
Time will tell who is right and who is wrong. However, by that time, it will be too late
for most folks, to take the actions necessary for their economic well being. It is the case of the
weatherman telling us that fair weather lies ahead. Then some folks actually look out
the window and see storm clouds, lightning flashes and tornadoes forming in the distance.
Camelot
Re your joke
<< <i>"[There is ] a famous story about two Americans walking down a road. One’s a normal American and the other is an economist. They fall into a deep pit, with very steep sides. The normal American says, “Good heavens, we can’t get out!” And the economist says, “Don’t worry. We’ll just assume a ladder.” >>
I liked the econometrician joke better!
1. It's a great time to buy...However quality coins
are held back from the market and in any event, no one
has any money to spare.
2. It's the worst time to sell. However, many folks must sell,
at any price because they need money and badly.
3. Many dealers go out of business . They just did not have
sufficient cash reserves. It is at this time that you pays your
money and may not get the coin from the dealer who has
disappeared.
4. "It will be the best of times, it will be the worst of times.
It will be the spring of hope and the winter of dispare".
Camelot
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for payments beginning January 2008 is 2.3 percent.
How many here believe that the cost of living has only gone up 2.3 percent in the past year?
<< <i>The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for payments beginning January 2008 is 2.3 percent.
How many here believe that the cost of living has only gone up 2.3 percent in the past year? >>
Not with the price of oil, gas, and transportation going up as much as it has!
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
<< <i>
<< <i>The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for payments beginning January 2008 is 2.3 percent.
How many here believe that the cost of living has only gone up 2.3 percent in the past year? >>
Not with the price of oil, gas, and transportation going up as much as it has! >>
buy a gallon of milk or OJ lately? That stuff has nearly doubled too!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for payments beginning January 2008 is 2.3 percent.
How many here believe that the cost of living has only gone up 2.3 percent in the past year? >>
Not with the price of oil, gas, and transportation going up as much as it has! >>
buy a gallon of milk or OJ lately? That stuff has nearly doubled too! >>
But according to official gov't numbers, inflation is in check.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for payments beginning January 2008 is 2.3 percent.
How many here believe that the cost of living has only gone up 2.3 percent in the past year? >>
Not with the price of oil, gas, and transportation going up as much as it has! >>
buy a gallon of milk or OJ lately? That stuff has nearly doubled too! >>
But according to official gov't numbers, inflation is in check. >>
As far as I understand it food prices are not figured into formula for how the govt. measures inflation.
There is a reason but I forgot what it was, maybe someone call fill in the details.
Nope - you still seem ignorant. So sorry.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
As for gas - I don't spend any money on it whatsoever, taking public transportation, or walking - PT has gone up modestly in price but still seems reasonable. If it ever gets unreasonable, that's what my bike's for.
<< <i>previous thread Link >>
Never Mind
<< <i>But according to official gov't numbers, inflation is in check. >>
Inflation will become a much more serious problem to the health of the overall economy when there is wage inflation. Until then, anecdotal stories about a few items is interesting, but it is not convincing.
I'll write what I always write for the newbies. Taking investment advice from a coin board is a fool's game. Newbies that do this tend to lose their shirts. Do your own due diligence and don't look to anonymous coin board people for advice about real money. There are sock puppets (alt IDs) and fools a plenty on the forum. Some of the those with the thickest layers of BS are the smoothest writers and most believable to novices. Don't believe something because it is on the Internet or in some newsletter.
If the newsletter writer were really smart, he/she wouldn't have to sell newsletters or books or whatever to make money. If a person wants to check a newsletter's audited track record, check with the Hulbert Financial Digest. If a newsletter doesn't have a track record, they are probably writing mostly for entertainment value only and will be of little use to the average person.
Predictions can be entertaining, though usually not profitable. I find it much more instructive to watch what people are actually doing. This means listening to the what the market is saying, not newsletters, not analysts, not industry spokespeople. Certainly not Chicken Little. Chicken Little told me that NAFTA meant the sky was falling, and then a few years later that 9-11 meant the sky was falling, and then Enron meant the sky was falling, and then a big hedge fund going belly up meant the sky was falling. Now Chicken Little is saying subprime means the sky is falling, and some how I am skeptical. Those who listen to the Chicken make their own bed. Even if the sky eventually does fall (and it likely will sometimes in the next fifty years), I do not want to live in a world where the sun is blotted out from the sky and I live in a bunker waiting for the sky to tumble down, while I adjust my tin foil hat.
Are these the best of times? No. Are there serious economic problems? Yes. Are these the worst of times? Not by a long shot. Detroit is having hard times, but most of the rest of the country isn't even close to recession yet. Are we headed for the worst of times? I doubt it. Most likely the problems going to work out and the economy will keep chugging along, though it may skip a gear and the ride may be bumpy in the short term.
Watching what folks are doing is what I see as perhaps the best use of this forum in terms of investments. Some say nothing, some spell out their moves, some seem to play both sides of the fence, saying sell in one post then buy in the next. Some always seem to buy the low and sell the high, and then write about it months or years after the event. A very few of these folks may be telling the truth, but the odds are against it, because a high percentage of these types have selective memories or are habitual liars by nature.
The counterfeit slab problem is probably a greater threat to the online coin market than the threat of recession.
(Begin good news
More Americans have “money to burn,” technically known as “discretionary income,” than at any time in the past quarter-century, and perhaps in the country’s history.
A lot more.
A whole lot more.
So many more that I went as far back as I could for comparable stats.
Here is what I found:
San Francisco Chronicle; December 18, 1985 (from ProQuest library database) — (Headline) “One-Third of U.S. Households/Americans With ‘Extra’ Cash.” The article doesn’t say what year the study by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Conference Board looked at. Let’s assume it was 1983.
Wall Street Journal; June 1, 1989 (from ProQuest library database) — “Only about 30% of American households have extra money to spend after paying taxes and buying the necessities, according to a report released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Conference Board.” This report referred to a 1987 Census Bureau/Conference Board report.
A reference to an early 2005 Conference Board Report that appears to relate to 2003 and/or 2004, saying, “About 57 million U.S. households now have discretionary income, up from nearly 54 million in 1997-1998, according to a new study released today by The Conference Board. But the percentage of the American population with discretionary income has edged down to 51 percent, compared with 52 percent six years ago.”
Finally, from the Conference Board earlier this week — “Between 2002 and 2006, the percentage of U.S. households with discretionary income increased from 52.1 percent (57 million households) to 63.5 percent (73 million households).”
Summarizing, here is the progression of Americans with discretionary income:
– 1983 - 33%
– 1987 - 30%
– 1997/1998 - 52%
– 2002 - 52.1%
– 2003/2004 - 51%
– 2006 - 63.5%
In everyday language, this means that about 12% of the population went from just getting by to having money to spare in a span of two or three years.
Again, someone needs to tell me why this news isn’t as significant, or as remarkable, as it appears.
You might think that in the non-stop Old Media hype about how the alleged crises in housing, mortgage lending, currency strength, and who knows what else, that good news like this might be welcome, if only as a change of pace.
pharmer again-I would think this would resonate with the discretionary spending crowd here
Link
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."