What happened to everyone's belief that the coin hobby had gradeflation problem?

bidask · October 30, 2007 7:02AM

After reading some threads today it made me wonder if folks think it never existed.

saintguru · October 30, 2007 7:05AM

Some coins are overgraded....some coins are undergraded.

EOM

mrearlygold · October 30, 2007 7:10AM

And some are right on

bidask · October 30, 2007 7:13AM

But don't you think more have been overgraded in the last few years?

I do.

saintguru · October 30, 2007 7:15AM

<< But don't you think more have been overgraded in the last few years?

I do. >>

Are you totally insane? Market got you down?

Don't worry, They'll be buying all the oil stocks again tomorrow.

Unknown · October 30, 2007 7:17AM

This content has been removed.

bidask · October 30, 2007 7:19AM

<< 

<< But don't you think more have been overgraded in the last few years?

I do. >>

Are you totally insane? Market got you down?

Don't worry, They'll be buying all the oil stocks again tomorrow. >>

No, I just notice things evolve, and they are evolving in the coin market too.

ColonialCoinUnion · October 30, 2007 7:24AM

<< The problem is that dealers don't care either way. >>

Some do.

roadrunner · October 30, 2007 7:26AM

No question gradeflation occurred following 1989. The issue being discussed today is are grading standards consistent
from day to day, month to month, etc. No one cares if there is inflation with the dollar, as long as it is controlled and
consistent. If it was down a lot one day, and up a ton the next day, it would be a pain.

roadrunner

bidask · October 30, 2007 7:26AM

Saint Guru, where do you get those insane emoticons? I love em.

bidask · October 30, 2007 7:28AM

<< No question gradeflation occurred following 1989. The issue being discussed today is are grading standards consistent
from day to day, month to month, etc. No one cares if there is inflation with the dollar, as long as it is controlled and
consistent. If it was down a lot one day, and up a ton the next day, it would be a pain.

roadrunner >>

I know you believe gradeinflation has persisted in the last few years, or I am I going crazy?

Russ · October 30, 2007 7:34AM

"Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE

planetsteve · October 30, 2007 7:39AM

<< After reading some threads today it made me wonder if folks think it never existed. >>

I don't know that many people have changed their minds on the issue, but I sure think that dealers coming up with the solution has a lot to do with the way people now feel about the problem.

Is the cure worse than the disease? I don't see that it is, but then, you've probably seen the last few hundred posts that I have. (Damn that seller and his Mercury dime!

)

fc · October 30, 2007 7:40AM

i look at some of my ogh and compare them to coins i see now
and i can only shake my head.

i sold off my MS62-63 coins because I was so disappointed in their
looks compared to my OGH MS60 and properly graded MS61 half eagles.

i also currently look at many slabbed half eagles and can only
shake my head in disbelief at how pathetic most are.

the southern half eagles really put the icing on the cake for how
much of a turd i think most are. AU58 coins with barely any luster
left (only around the stars/date), look like they have been cleaned/wiped, and insult my intelligence as a collector.

but people continue to buy them at inflated prices.. so who am i
to argue.

i will simply wait for properly graded coins and seek out the lower
grades where less mischief has taken place.

that is about all i can say before i make this thread go poof.

bidask · October 30, 2007 7:44AM

<< 

<< After reading some threads today it made me wonder if folks think it never existed. >>

I don't know that many people have changed their minds on the issue, but I sure think that dealers coming up with the solution has a lot to do with the way people now feel about the problem.

Is the cure worse than the disease? I don't see that it is, but then, you've probably seen the last few hundred posts that I have. (Damn that seller and his Mercury dime!

) >>

Yeah, but that kinda of stuff happens on ebay everyday anyway without that little sticker.

walkerman · October 30, 2007 7:47AM

<< The problem is that dealers don't care either way, so that just leaves collectors who aren't listened to by the TPG's because collectors are deemed to not to know better. Profits rule the hobby and dealers rule and the only thing that moves the hobby along are dealers/tpg's. Of course this is just my liusy personal opinion, flame away folks. >>

Some dealers do care---a lot! Some dealers routinely avoid buying overgraded coins even with the knowledge that they can be bought at bargain prices and then sold to the unwary who like to buy plastic at bargain prices.
The TPGS created a cottage industry consisting of dealers and collectors with nothing else on their mind except upgrades.
There is no way I can see where this has had any benefits for the hobby.
The more coins that were submitted,(tons) the more slipped into an undeserved higher grade.
The only thing collectors can do to protect themselves is #1 Improve your own grading skills.
#2 Deal only with dealers who handle only properly graded coins and preferably high end coins even if it requires a premium dollar expenditure.
#3 Purchase only from dealers who offer a no hassle return policy.
#4 Remember: The worst bargain in the coin hobby is a very bad coin for a very good price. Dave W

David J Weygant Rare Coins www.djwcoin.com

ColonialCoinUnion · October 30, 2007 7:53AM

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I would agree with this, at least in the series with which I am familiar.

bidask · October 30, 2007 7:57AM

<< 

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I would agree with this, at least in the series with which I am familiar. >>

Colonial coins?

mrearlygold · October 30, 2007 8:03AM

<< 

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I would agree with this, at least in the series with which I am familiar. >>

I would agree with this in several series but in other series ( early gold ), some of the material is really sad.

pharmer · October 30, 2007 8:07AM

As one of the most ardent admirers of the venture, you've probably been focusing too much on the comments that fit your own narrative on this.

bidask · October 30, 2007 8:10AM

<< As one of the most ardent admirers of the venture, you've probably been focusing too much on the comments that fit your own narrative on this. >>

Honestly, that could be....but it does make me wonder.

ColonialCoinUnion · October 30, 2007 8:10AM

<< 

<< 

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I would agree with this, at least in the series with which I am familiar. >>

Colonial coins? >>

Colonials, early type, the kinds of coins we deal in, etc.

We buy a of of raw coins and submit them, and so we have a pretty good feel for how things are being graded.

ricko · October 30, 2007 8:12AM

There exists a constant search for the highest grade - at any cost, it seems. There was a time, acquiring a coin was paramount... the grade was secondary. After acquisition, there was always a secondary search for a better coin.... kept the fun going. Now, it seems (again), anything short of MS/PR70 is trash. Well, not to true collectors. It is always nice to have beautiful examples of coins... and all collectors do not have resale as their primary objective. Actually, I would say true collectors do not. Individuals who are 'in the business' certainly have to look at coins from a profit perspective... and high grade coins will always have a market. So too, will those coins of lessor perfection. The margins will not be as high.. but a market nonetheless. We are too easily distracted from our hobby and led down paths of avarice. Cheers, RickO

bidask · October 30, 2007 8:13AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I would agree with this, at least in the series with which I am familiar. >>

Colonial coins? >>

Colonials, early type, the kinds of coins we deal in, etc.

We buy a of of raw coins and submit them, and so we have a pretty good feel for how things are being graded. >>

So you believe that say early type has been accurately graded in the last few years? Say last 5 years?

TAClough · October 30, 2007 8:15AM

<< Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I know you can't tell from a picture. But I just bought a 1972-D PCGS MS66 off of eBay that the pictures looked better then the MS67 coin that my son has in his set. I will wait until I get the coin in hand before making my finial decision but the person who was selling in noted for taking accurate photos. But even if the MS66 isn’t as good as the 1972-D that we have in MS67, I am only into the MS66 for $21.50 including postage and insurance

Deadhorse · October 30, 2007 8:21AM

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

Took the words right out of my mouth. In fact, because of gradeflation, I think the pendulum swung back a little too far when they tightened up the standards. JMO

bidask · October 30, 2007 8:21AM

"There exists a constant search for the highest grade - at any cost, it seems. There was a time, acquiring a coin was paramount... the grade was secondary. After acquisition, there was always a secondary search for a better coin.... kept the fun going. Now, it seems (again), anything short of MS/PR70 is trash"

If you saw the range of coins in my collection you would certainly know I am not suggesting that. Fun comes first.

I am talking about the existence of gradeflation, especially the last few years.

ColonialCoinUnion · October 30, 2007 8:24AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I would agree with this, at least in the series with which I am familiar. >>

Colonial coins? >>

Colonials, early type, the kinds of coins we deal in, etc.

We buy a of of raw coins and submit them, and so we have a pretty good feel for how things are being graded. >>

So you believe that say early type has been accurately graded in the last few years? Say last 5 years? >>

For the last few years, I would say generally yes.

bidask · October 30, 2007 8:29AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I would agree with this, at least in the series with which I am familiar. >>

Colonial coins? >>

Colonials, early type, the kinds of coins we deal in, etc.

We buy a of of raw coins and submit them, and so we have a pretty good feel for how things are being graded. >>

So you believe that say early type has been accurately graded in the last few years? Say last 5 years? >>

For the last few years, I would say generally yes. >>

Generally yes perhaps, but the proportion of not properly graded coins to properly graded coins has grown, no?

AU58WALKERS · October 30, 2007 8:33AM

I think " everyone's " got banned for too much bashing of the host.

coinkat · October 30, 2007 8:56AM

Hopefully collectors are developing better grading skills

TwoSides2aCoin · October 30, 2007 9:12AM

I still believe each coin stands on it's own merit.

MrEureka · October 30, 2007 9:15AM

In a rising market, anything that's presentable finds a home pretty quickly, leaving a disproportionately large amount of slop in the marketplace.

In a rising market, dealers are more likely to resubmit a coin until it "works", since the coin is appreciating. These PQ coins are held of the market, again leaving a disproportionately large amount of slop in the marketplace.

The point is that the rising market is substantially responsible for the impression of rampant gradeflation. Conversely, in a declining market gradeflation may miraculously seem to reverse course overnight.

ColonialCoinUnion · October 30, 2007 9:22AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< "Everyone's" belief? I've never said I thought there was gradeflation. In fact, I've repeatedly stated the opposite. PCGS and NGC both are grading as tight over the last couple years as they ever have. I've handled hundreds of coins graded five or more years ago that would not pass muster at the same grade today.

Russ, NCNE >>

I would agree with this, at least in the series with which I am familiar. >>

Colonial coins? >>

Colonials, early type, the kinds of coins we deal in, etc.

We buy a of of raw coins and submit them, and so we have a pretty good feel for how things are being graded. >>

So you believe that say early type has been accurately graded in the last few years? Say last 5 years? >>

For the last few years, I would say generally yes. >>

Generally yes perhaps, but the proportion of not properly graded coins to properly graded coins has grown, no? >>

No, I don't think that's true.

Bear · October 30, 2007 9:23AM

When money is tight and the overall economics

seem ominous, it is then that collectors tighten

up on the quality of the coins they will accept. This is a

good defensive move, that will stand collectors in

good stead when the economy and collecting atmosphere

improves.

Coxe · October 30, 2007 9:28AM

It is not a matter of belief, but of fact. What else could have happened? When you have enormous economic incentive to go for the next adjacent grade, it will happen....repeatedly until it is made. PQs for the grade simply are under continual pressure to pop up one point. There still are some out there, but not circulating in dealer inventories, despite what a lot might claim. Most PQ are the coins socked away in personal collections with little to no consideration of paying fees to swap labels. Once all we see are, at best, nominal for the grade, they become the new PQ. It has been so obvious with MS65 Morgans, and with all four top TPGs. The price guides, in theory, should be adjusting to these inflating standards. I believe they also have in practice. The only serious casualty IMHO is the old school PQ for the grade coin that ignorantly gets tossed into the marketplace without an upgrade to today's standards. Sometimes it is competed to a PQ price, but VERY rarely crosses the line to the next grade's price, which is what will be realized when it is inevitably upgraded.

None of the basic idea of gradeflation bothers me in the least, as it is to be expected and would have been and is impossible to really prevent. Just go with the flow and live with it until a few nicks is ok for MS70.

oldwestgold · October 30, 2007 10:17AM

<< i look at some of my ogh and compare them to coins i see now
and i can only shake my head.

i sold off my MS62-63 coins because I was so disappointed in their
looks compared to my OGH MS60 and properly graded MS61 half eagles.

i also currently look at many slabbed half eagles and can only
shake my head in disbelief at how pathetic most are.

the southern half eagles really put the icing on the cake for how
much of a turd i think most are. AU58 coins with barely any luster
left (only around the stars/date), look like they have been cleaned/wiped, and insult my intelligence as a collector.

but people continue to buy them at inflated prices.. so who am i
to argue.

i will simply wait for properly graded coins and seek out the lower
grades where less mischief has taken place.

that is about all i can say before i make this thread go poof. >>

One thing I see with gold in OGH's is not necessarily the "best" technical grade or PQ, but the surfaces are more often than not reaking with originality, so much so that the marks don't bother me. I agree with you when you say something is wrong with a lot of au to ms63 newer slabbed gold. Overly shiney, wiped or dipped (I dunno) but most don't look right to me.

Joflax · October 30, 2007 10:41AM

I dont even look at the recently graded coins at auction , The last one I bought looked great in the photos and then was looking thru Heritage archives and the same coin was sold a few months before ,2 grades lower . If it was au58 a few months before in an old holder and now its a ms61 that would be called rampant inflation. (ngc slabs ,before I get poofed

) Still love the coin ,for those buy the coin clowns.

Fairlaneman · October 30, 2007 10:54AM

A few years back I would agree with the gradeflation theory. It appears now, within the series I collect, that the theory has went out the window. A couple of recent purchases would have been graded higher 3 years ago. The strick grading is a real blessing for collectors for the most part. This coin below would have been 65 a couple of years ago.

Ken

BobGreene · October 31, 2007 5:45AM

What is now considered a "gem" today wouldn't have even come close to that designation back in the '70s. So yes, gradeflation has and continues to occur.

Arizonadesertrat · October 31, 2007 6:01AM

<< When money is tight and the overall economics

seem ominous, it is then that collectors tighten

up on the quality of the coins they will accept. This is a

good defensive move, that will stand collectors in

good stead when the economy and collecting atmosphere

improves. >>

[Bear]

Shrewd collectors operate this way ALL of the time. Of course, this assumes that collectors know how to grade what they are collecting---many don't, so they opt for blind acceptance of numbers on plastic holders.

ColonialCoinUnion · October 31, 2007 6:09AM

<< What is now considered a "gem" today wouldn't have even come close to that designation back in the '70s. So yes, gradeflation has and continues to occur. >>

And a coin called Fine in Chapman sale in 1890 might be called AU today.

I thought the question was whether or not there had been gradeflation in the last few years.

pharmer · October 31, 2007 6:16AM

<< 

<< As one of the most ardent admirers of the venture, you've probably been focusing too much on the comments that fit your own narrative on this. >>

Honestly, that could be....but it does make me wonder. >>

See, it's happening again. Those who disagree aren't likely chime in here, are they. You're preaching to the choir, the ones who made the venture seem like a good idea at the time

What happened to everyone's belief that the coin hobby had gradeflation problem?

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