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Jeter - the new postseason choker
stitzen
Posts: 1,771
in Sports Talk
Goes 3-17 in the four games, batting .176 and no extra base hits...multiple times grounding into double plays.
Choker!
Choker!
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stitzen
Posts: 1,771
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now if you wanna talk about A-fraud...thats another story.
only took him three years to get an RBI
Cano, .333, 2 homers, 3 R.B.I.
Damon, .278, 2 Homers, 5 R.B.I.
Rivera, same as always. $$$$$
Other than that, they had no interest in moving runners, puting consecutive hits together, or batting anyone in exept game 3. That was just from fear alone of being swept, and having a million Yankee fans puting lynch mobs together.
Overall fact. Yankees have more talent in the 7-9 batters than my S.F. Giants have as a team.
It was a total shame to see all those bats do almost nothing but wait for their turn to bat, then just close their eyes and hope for contact.
It was a BAD series for the entire team. Props to the Indians pitching though. They owned almost everybody.
But if the argument was made that Arod was a choker based on a handful of at bats (which was the common saying among NY 'fans'), then that mantle must surely be passed on to Jeter now.
Hey, its not what you did in the past (which is what I heard when I brought up Arod's 2004 numbers), its what you've done most recently. Most recently, Jeter's batted under .200 with 3 hits in 4 games.
Choker.
Hilarious!
1. What is the average number of post season at bats for a player in his career in MLB adjusted for service time?
2. What is the average number of at bats per player by team in MLB history?
3. What is the historical expected difference between a players post season stats and regular season stats?
4. What is the historical expected difference between a players post season stats by team and regular season stats?
Until you know what the expected number of at bats a player would have in the post season and maybe correct it for the teams they are playing for you don't know what the sample size should be.
Also without comparing historical differences between post season stats and regular stats you don't know if it is to be expected that players hit like their regular season more often or not in MLB history. There might be team bias and the data might show that playing for certain teams might cause an expected difference in stats much higher than if they played for another team.
If you don't know the answers to these questions then you stating A-rod didn't choke based on the stats is just as ingorant as the opposite position.
Arod, 4 hits and an RBI
Always remember everyone that the troll's driving force throughout life is contempt for the Yankees, unless of course it's Arod who is a Mariner home grown.
All players revert to their averages given enough at bats. Throwing out 30 or 50 at bats of Arod's postseason career and saying 'look, he can't handle the postseason!' is short sighted and ridiculous. Just like calling out 17 at bats of Jeter and saying he's a choker.
For one thing, Im a Giants fan. My ALL TIME FAV is Will Clark. He was clutch back in his day. He always seemed to come through.
In the post seasons he had, in 3 League Championship series he batted .468
7 total post-season series he hit .333
In 89 series he hit .650 to get them to the World Series, then hit .250!
I would love to have Jeter on the Giants! Gold Glove, right around .318 avg, some power, doubles galore, steals bases, and usually hits in the clutch!
Even with this terrible team effort in this series, hes still at .354 in league division series, .262 in champ series, and .302 in World Series play.
.309 Overall in postseason play. Doesnt sound to bad to me. NOT REGGIE, but pretty damn good!
Bad series.... YES
Choker, Over the hill, Overated..... NO WAY!
<< <i>The point of my post was to show how ridiculous and moronic it is to call someone a 'choker' or 'underperformer' based on a handful of at bats, which many, many people did in regards to Arod. You simply cannot make an informed decision about a player's ability based on so few at bats.
All players revert to their averages given enough at bats. Throwing out 30 or 50 at bats of Arod's postseason career and saying 'look, he can't handle the postseason!' is short sighted and ridiculous. Just like calling out 17 at bats of Jeter and saying he's a choker. >>
Derek Jeter....
Divsion Series OPS .957
ALCS OPS...............744
WS OPS..................809
GAME SEVENS....Batting average of .230, and an OPS hovering in the mid .570's-ish
Lifetime OPS...........850
Based on all the philosophies that the Jeter clutch backers live by to degrade others as NON clutch, and Jeter as Mr. Clutch, would that then mean that Jeter is really only clutch in the Division Series? Would it also mean that when the heat is REALLY turned on that he wilts under it in the spotlight of the ultimate clutch games...game sevens? They were One win, and Two losses in those game sevens(for those who state the obvious that winning is the goal).
-Skinpinch
Don't confuse the mindless jeter jock sniffers with trivial things like FACTS!
They are rather content in their towers with the images of Jeter being clutch every single time, no matter the situation...and that Arod's a choker, every single time, no matter the situation. Let's not forget that it's been SEVEN YEARS since Jeter has single-handedly brought them a world series win....all I hear about Jeter are his four rings, so he must have done those on his own....
All you have to do is look at the record book, especially of the past 10 years(since there are more post season games). If you look, you will see that the guys who have the widest differential between their post season stats, and their regular season stats are the ones with the fewer amount of at bats in the post season.
The more at bats a player gets, the more they start to resemble their regular season stats. That is not unlike the MLB batting average leaders on April 29th. By September 29th the truth wins out...with the exception of a small percentage...and then the truth catches up with them next year!!!!
ALways think Bernie Williams in this case. He was a lightning bolt out of the post season gate for a number of series. He was better than great! As time went on the law of averages started to catch up with him. Too bad for him that he made it back that many more times, or he would be the guy that everyone proclaimed possessed some mythical ability that all the other MLB players don't.
This is not just a post season phenomenon. It happens all the time in the regular season, just like the April 29th leader board. If a player had an ability to avoid those bad streaks, then why would they only apply it to the post season? Why not do it all year and just bat .450? Because they can't control it! It is part of the game when you are playing a bunch of guys who are extremely close in ability. They can only play to their ability, and the chips will fall where they may. It takes time for the truth to prevail.
If you do not believe this, then you MUST believe that Derek Jeter is a choker in game sevens, because just look at how he shrinks in pivotal game sevens...the ultimate pressure cooker.
<< <i>Throwing out 30 or 50 at bats of Arod's postseason career and saying 'look, he can't handle the postseason!' is short sighted and ridiculous. Just like calling out 17 at bats of Jeter and saying he's a choker. >>
It's currently 59 at bats with 1 RBI ( a solo shot) and something like 0 for 26 with runners on during that time.
As far as the POST SEASON goes, did the Yankees get their money's worth?
<< <i>Of course, he could go on a serious tear in any given year or two and improve siginificantly but the only thing we have thus far are the 147 ABs, and he is WELL below his regular season numbers on those. >>
This is true. Barry Bonds was the poster child for postseason chokes until he had a monster October in 2002.
Guess that caused the baton to be passed to A-Rod.
Of the all time top ten leaders in post season at bats, you have to get down to number ten to find a player who has better post season numbers than regular season...Reggie Jackson. .885 OPS in the post season, .846 lifetime. But if you don't think that randomness is the absolute BIGGEST culprit of the highs and lows then how do you explain this about Reggie Jackson?
He was abysmal in his lifetime ALCS .678 OPS
He was a monster lifetime in the WS 1.212
How can you proclaim a guy like Reggie has the ability to rise to the occasion because of his WS performance, but then look at how he FELL to the occasion in the ALCS? If that isn't randomness, then I don't know what is. Especially when you know that the bulk of his WS hitting is a result of one series, heck, ONE GAME! That is screaming "he got very hot at the right time. "
The answer to the number of at bats is the higher, the more valid. 20 at bats tells you absolutely squat. 250 tells a lot more, but is still very susceptible to randomness. 500 at bats tightens the ship a lot more...but MLB history is filled with 560 at bat wonders. Just because those at bats occur consecutively in one season, or they are 30 at bats after every season, they are both prone to randomness equally. The exception is that the post season at bats could be spread out far enough that age is playing a role(same with regular season totals, if a guy played all his series early in his career only).
The only real meaning this has is for GM's. If you sign a guy based on a string of post season successes, and expect him to play above his ability in those games even more, then you are in trouble...as history shows that those guys are as likely to fail the next series, as they are to succeed.
Historically after 85 post season ab's a players expected values for X hitting stats approach 90% of their regular season totals for their career within a 95% CI. Players on X teams would expect to only approach 85% of their stats due to ballpark adjustments or other factors.
That would be my hypothesis and crunching the stats would help but I'm kinda lazy and I do this all day at work but I am intrigued enough to maybe do it. Also you would be able to tell what the average ab's a player could expect in his career, adjust it for what teams they play for etc. At least you might have something to base it off of rather than keep saying there aren't enough ab's to make any assumptions.
The question you are asking is basically standard deviation...I hate the term standard deviation for baseball, but that is basically it.
Baseball, Aord's post season OPS is .844, not .644(where did you get that from)?
Arod has 147 at bats, and his OPS is .844 compared to the regular season of .967. In only 147 at bats, I am pretty sure that is well within expected norm. Like I said before though, guys have looked at all that, and nobody came up with a guy who fell below expected norms(maybe they did find one guy).
Another way to check is take every player who had a post season that was better than his regular stats, put them in a group, and then see how many repeated that the following time in the post season. Then do the same for the guys who sucked, put them in a group, and see how many of them sucked next time as well. What usually ends up happening is that each group has about equal guys who trade or jump to the other group. If there was an ability involved, a high percent should be able to sustain, but they don't. Do this for every season, for every guy.
lol
Steve
The players as well. I get that stats really are a part of measuring the productivity of a player over the long haul. But ANYONE who can objectively watch a team or a player, as a fan knows there is more than just the numbers.
Anyone who has watched Jeter play over the last 12 years or so will know that he is a great player. Another player on a long list of proud Yankees. He upholds the Yankee tradition of greatness. He has won four World Championships. Led the way many times, all without A-Rod.
Great Glove, great hitting, great leadership. A true Captain. Class Act all the way.
This series almost everyone stunk. Nobody else picked up the slack. Poor pitching, bad hitting. OR was it great pitching by the Indians. They get paid too. Sabathia is in line for a Cy Young. Ive watched Jeter kick butt for the last decade. He is a Winner through and through. He has the rings to prove it. Fans have seen the catches, hits, steals that have made him a highlight reel.
This series wasnt one of them. "Choker", not a chance, "Choked this series" maybe, had a bad series for once, YES. Thats all. Next year maybe he carries them all the way. Maybe not. In 4 more years, even with better than average play, he will have 3000 hits, 250+ Homers, 500+ doubles, 300+ steals,3 Gold Gloves, 4 + W.S. Rings. Still having around .320 avg.
As for all the other stats, who really cares. You cant win them all. Hes done better than most I think.
Funny thing is that I am a die hard Giants fan. I love the game. Everything about it. I played since I was old enough and quit when I couldnt play anymore. I always respect greatness and leadership ability. Even if it's the Dodgers!! I get it. Not by looking at Baseball-reference.com. By watching and feeling a great play that turned a game around. Thats baseball.
Jeter has earned a "Bad Series". Hes alright. If you can honestly say you wouldnt want a guy like that on your favorite team. You either hate the Yanks so bad that you are mentally insane. Or you just dont get the sport.
Incase anyone is wondering why the long editorial? I guess it's just like they say. "Everyone want to be a Yankee". Comes out in alot of people. Class, Class, Class.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I just had to add this. Baseball is more than just stats. Crunching numbers and turning a sport into nothing but statistical columns really steals from the greatness of the game. >>
I disagree...stats are what make baseball so great. Who doesn't know the significance of 715? 755? What 3000 hits means? The stats *are* what make baseball great.
<< <i>Jeter has earned a "Bad Series". Hes alright. If you can honestly say you wouldnt want a guy like that on your favorite team. You either hate the Yanks so bad that you are mentally insane. Or you just dont get the sport. >>
Nobody said they wouldn't want Jeter on their team, and the entire point of this post was to illustrate how ridiculous it is to judge a guy on a handful of at bats. The same people who have been bashing Arod for having a handful of bad at bats aren't calling out Jeter, and that's hypocritical. Jeter batted .176 in this series, yet where were the cries of outrage like there were for Arod?
The GAME is what is great. Stats are a Bi-product of the game. Milestones are remembered, but the excitement of Americas game is what keeps it going. Stats may be one of the downfalls in many ways.
Bobby Thompsons " Shot heard around the world". Thats a Clutch homerun. Amazing, not just a great stat.
If you think stats are not one of the single biggest reasons for high salaries, your not paying attention.
Also the title of the thread is " Jeter- the new post season choker" Thats a quote.
And yes, the same goes for A-Rod. BAD SERIES. Maybe next year he hits 3 Homers in one game like REGGIE.
Lastly, I know you cant possibly think that stas make the game. If you love the game, you do it because you loved playing as a kid. Thats fun, Not stats. 715, 755, 3000. Incredible acheivements know doubt. All Bi-products of a GREAT GAME. I think that PASSION makes it great. Thats just me though.
<< <i>
If you think stats are not one of the single biggest reasons for high salaries, your not paying attention. >>
Sure I am...and stats have been talked about in baseball more than any other sport for as long as baseball has been around...how much attention was paid to Ruth hitting 60? How long was that number held in awe? What about 61? Stats are the common denominator when it comes to talking about baseball. Any baseball fan can sit down and talk about the significance of 715. And no, stats are not the reason for high salaries.
<< <i>Also the title of the thread is " Jeter- the new post season choker" Thats a quote. >>
Yes, it was done in jest to prove how silly calling Arod a choker over 50 at bats is/was.
Funny how everybody has great stats the year that their contract is up. Thet get on hell of a big raise and got right back down to averageville U.S.A.
Stats or numerical productivity is the MAIN factor in new contracts. Arbitrators dont give raises by jock strap sizes. The higher the avg, Homers, Wins, Saves ====$$$$$$$$$$$$
I wansnt old enough for 715. So I cant talk about it with any feeling, Its a number. A great achievement. I respect a ton. I do remember Mcgwires Homerun though, made me love the Game More than I used to.
As for the A-Rod part, You are Totally and completely right.
I didnt know it was in jest though. I reads like a swipe at him. "Choker ! " Seemed like a slam to me.
Thanks for the feedback, I enjoy talking baseball.
No one is being a hypocrit here, You just jumped on the bash Jeter bandwagon before anyone could digest what had happened.
A-Rod has been a big failure for 4 series, ..........that is the reason he was called out here .
Steve
<< <i>You better Ask Andrew Jones if he needs a new agent then. He's on his way out because of stats. I wonder what his new salary will be next year? Lower I would think. >>
He's going to get a pay raise, not lower. Guaranteed.
<< <i>Funny how everybody has great stats the year that their contract is up. Thet get on hell of a big raise and got right back down to averageville U.S.A. >>
Andruw Jones didn't. Not everybody has a great walk year, sometimes just happens that way.
<< <i>Stats or numerical productivity is the MAIN factor in new contracts. Arbitrators dont give raises by jock strap sizes. The higher the avg, Homers, Wins, Saves ====$$$$$$$$$$$$ >>
So if a guy doesn't produce better numbers he doesn't deserve a raise?
<< <i>I wansnt old enough for 715. So I cant talk about it with any feeling, Its a number. A great achievement. I respect a ton. I do remember Mcgwires Homerun though, made me love the Game More than I used to. >>
You don't remember 715 but you surely know what it means don't you? What about 755? Those statistics are what make baseball great. Fans of every generation know exactly what they mean and can discuss it. Again, the stats are what make baseball great.
Been waiting on a World Series Win my whole life.
Wish it was 89, but not meant to be I guess.
Sometimes I wonder If the quake was just because of ME!!!!
<< <i>Stats are fun to talk about and analyze, but once again, you play the game to WIN. Winning is what matters. I would happily sacrifice Yankee stats all over the place for the World Series. >>
And yet those stats are what allow you to win...can't have one without the other.
He largely carried the team on his back for the season yet when he fell off in the playoffs, nobody else could pick the team up. The entire team is to blame.
<< <i>dirtymonkey, while I don't believe the Yanks needed ARod to get to the playoffs in 2004-06, I agree that they probably don't make it this year without him. However, one could also argue that another 3rd baseman the last 3 years and perhaps the Yanks would be advancing past the Division Series in one, two, or all three of them. >>
Sure, it's certainly possible they could have advanced with another 3B but I'm guessing one could argue that about some other players on the team as well. In the end, I'll take any struggling current league MVP on my team anyday. I understand it's frustrating as a fan, but I suspect it's worse for him. It's not as though one can believe he's not trying to win.
<< <i>The best stats do not always, nor even almost always, relate to who wins the championship in baseball >>
Actually the best stats always relate to who wins. If it doesn't work that way, you are interpreting the stats incorrectly. . .
<< <i>
<< <i>The best stats do not always, nor even almost always, relate to who wins the championship in baseball >>
Actually the best stats always relate to who wins. If it doesn't work that way, you are interpreting the stats incorrectly. . . >>
I disagree! If Arod goes 3 for 4 with 2 HR's and 5RBI and the Yanks Lose, but if they win and he goes 0-4 with 3K's? How do you figure that one?
<< <i>I disagree! If Arod goes 3 for 4 with 2 HR's and 5RBI and the Yanks Lose, but if they win and he goes 0-4 with 3K's? How do you figure that one? >>
You figure that out pretty easily. The entirity of the Yankees team had better stats when they won, and worse when they lost. Individuals within the team may vary
Stats only tell part of the story..........IMHO
Steve
And you are exactly right that stats only tell part of the story. Much of that is because we don't know how to iterpret them
<< <i> I disagree! If Arod goes 3 for 4 with 2 HR's and 5RBI and the Yanks Lose, but if they win and he goes 0-4 with 3K's? How do you figure that one? >>
That is very easy to explain, he is one player of many. A player can hit four home runs in a game, and they can still lose. If that happens to the some extent all the time, all it tells you is that he has lousy teammates. If a guy goes 0-4 with 3k's often, and they win all the time...it tells you that player stinks and he has excellent teammates
As for the 1960 WS...that is exactly the point...the lower amount of games, the greater the randomness and deviation from the norm to be a factor. In that case it is almost always the timely hit. In a short series one team gets more timely hits, and they usually win. In the long haul those timely hits even out and happen at a rate consumate of what the true ability tells us(the ability we know based on the THOUSANDS of plate appeances).
TomGshotput is exactly right, the problem is that most don't know how to interpret them. Many fans still don't know the true value of a strikeout, as opposed to a batted out. They severely overinflate things, yet we know exactly how often each leads to runs/takes away from. It isn't a mystery. We know a lot of things to a pinpoint degree, things that fans just guessed on in the past. Instead of fans learning more about the game from this information, they turn the other way either because they don't want to take the time to learn it, or they don't want it to shed a light on their hero that may make him look less than he really is.
Then we have the guys come on here and proclaim stat guys like myself don't love the game or whatever. I, and almost all other guys similar to me(like SABR), have enjoyed the game and its memories and connections to childhood as much as anyone else. I can almsot guarantee I spent my youth watching, playing, and creating more memories than pretty much anyone. That is the kind of stuff that got me, and others, to dig deeper to learn MORE than even the most ardhent fan, and not be satisfied with crapola analysis we always hear. The stat knowledge is ON TOP of all the other stuff you guys are talking about above.