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Should the US Mint hold lotteries for the HOT issues?
tincup
Posts: 5,479 ✭✭✭✭✭
Well, we thought the 3-4 hour sellout for the first 2 First Spouse gold coins was spectacular.... but now we have a 2-3 hour sellout for the Jefferson gold issue. Even after the greatly reduced limits imposed by the US Mint. Even with the reduced limits, we hear how individuals were able to obtain 50 - 100 coins.... while we admire their resourcefulness, try talking to the ones who were not able to get a single one because of this type of activity.
So..... what will the Mint do next?? Can't very much reduce the limits again....
They can raise the mintage limits, as has been speculated here on the board.....
Or, they can use a lottery or drawing system. All orders placed in the bin, (electronically into the system) and after the established ordering time period is over, the 20,000 lucky winners for each option will be determined randomly. The orders will still be screened as they come in.... so 'repeat' orders will still be able to be dropped out, limits enforced, etc.
This system would be similar to the one we used to have in Nebraska for deer hunting permits years ago. There were many, many more applicants than there were permits available...... so names were drawn. Seemed to work well.
What do you think? A doable way to get some control on the mess? (I realize another option is to just do away with the mintage limits).
Well, off to the token show in The Big O!!!
So..... what will the Mint do next?? Can't very much reduce the limits again....
They can raise the mintage limits, as has been speculated here on the board.....
Or, they can use a lottery or drawing system. All orders placed in the bin, (electronically into the system) and after the established ordering time period is over, the 20,000 lucky winners for each option will be determined randomly. The orders will still be screened as they come in.... so 'repeat' orders will still be able to be dropped out, limits enforced, etc.
This system would be similar to the one we used to have in Nebraska for deer hunting permits years ago. There were many, many more applicants than there were permits available...... so names were drawn. Seemed to work well.
What do you think? A doable way to get some control on the mess? (I realize another option is to just do away with the mintage limits).
Well, off to the token show in The Big O!!!
----- kj
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Guys like me don't stand a chance. 12 noon ET is 1 AM here in Japan. If I want a CHANCE at a coin I have to get up in the middle of the night.
Actually the subscription program works for me. Now if they'd just add stuff to it.
John
Never view my other linked pages. They aren't coin related.
–John Adams, 1826
the same as happens now, the "aftermarket" determines the value. Some folks like me will only collect the coin obverse ones we like. Well, and maybe the Jackie K
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
Well, off to the token show in The Big O!!!
Look for notlogical and myself. We'll be the ones wearing Red.
How would screening work? People are using different accounts and shipping to different addresses-there is not way to tell.
To try to combat ordering loopholes, flippers, etc-
1) No P.O. Box deliveries, No UPS Store deliveries, Mail Boxes Inc, etc, only physical addresses.
2) Only one order per IP address.... masked IP's, hidden IP's, generic IP's cannot order.
3) Once order is placed and accepted, CC is charged immediately. No refunds once order is placed.
But, I suggested before:
1) Ensure the purchasers of a "series" like First Spouse, the ability to pre-order and purchase at least one coin based on the fact that they bought the others, this would be handled like a subscription. However, If you pull out for any reason and dont buy the last coin offered, you give up your right to have "one" reserved of the next one in the series. This ensures collectors are guaranteed a coin. If you drop out, you cannot subscribe to the same series again.
2) Possibly allow pre-ordering periods (several) based on "time" or "membership" on the mint mailing list. Sort of like "Member Since 1999" or "Member Since 1982" would be grouped together to give you some VIP benefit and allow you to purchase or reserve a coin prior to offical release. Maybe grouped together in 5 to 10 year increments....again, this rewards LOYAL mint customers just like many rewards programs work in private business.
Outside of all of the above thoughts, I believe as well as many others, that the amt of non-collector flippers has even grown 5-10 fold over even the last two Spouse issues. These new entrants are not collectors, rather just in this for a quick buck. The above items could put a "stop" on how many of these new purchasers could get in the game....and stabilize the markets for moderns.
As for upping mintages, I wonder if they are at, or near capacity now? Increasing volume has an adverse impact on quaily in many manufactring process.
<< <i>As for upping mintages, I wonder if they are at, or near capacity now? Increasing volume has an adverse impact on quaily in many manufactring process. >>
Toyota does ok. Perhaps the Mint can learn from them.
But then again, the Mint has lower quality requirements than people who want 70s.
I was there on a very fast connection, already logged into my account about 15 minutes before 12, with my quick checkout options pre-set, and two browser windows open to the first spouse page. When the time came around, I just refreshed both windows, hit "add to cart" for the uncirculated one in one window and for the proof in the other, waited for the cart page to come up and hit quick checkout.
I had my two coins at 12:04 because I was prepared. Fortune favors the prepared mind. Anyone else could have done the same thing, provided they thought ahead and could get access to a decent internet connection (free at libraries and most offices these days, cheap at most homes).
Everyone's whining about the flippers, like the mint was placing flipper orders first or something. We don't need the mint to do anything except upgrade their order processing.
A lottery would be great. So would changing the return policy. If you don't like an item, you should know it in far less than 30 days.
Another good idea is to drag out the credit processing for returns. If someone returns $15000 of a single item, take 5 months to process the credit. While they pay credit card interest, they can be thinking about how much they like hosing collectors by hogging mint issues.
<< <i>No way. Everybody's got a fair chance to get the coins. Just because someone's buying to flip doesn't mean that a collector takes second seat to them. The problem was that the mint's computer system and phone system are not up to the task of dealing with such high traffic. >>
The problem mentioned in the OP is that flippers are getting more than the minimum which is a different issue than you're discussing. When people get more than the minimum, everybody does not have a fair chance.
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
<< <i>I was there on a very fast connection, already logged into my account about 15 minutes before 12, with my quick checkout options pre-set, and two browser windows open to the first spouse page. When the time came around, I just refreshed both windows, hit "add to cart" for the uncirculated one in one window and for the proof in the other, waited for the cart page to come up and hit quick checkout.
I had my two coins at 12:04 because I was prepared. Fortune favors the prepared mind. Anyone else could have done the same thing, provided they thought ahead and could get access to a decent internet connection (free at libraries and most offices these days, cheap at most homes).
>>
I made a similar argument here awhile back. Then this Thursday I found myself out in the field with a sales rep (part of my job), cajoling him into going to a Starbucks and getting there at about 12:15 during our lunch break after what was supposed to be a "quick" salescall, then trying to even GET to the Spouse page at the Mint via a T-Mobile WiFi hotspot. It was beyond an utter PITA; it was impossible. (I ended up getting on the waitlist at the end of the workday.)
Lesson learned for me, along with some humility. Would I have taken the day off to order my limit of two? No. That kind of personal time is worth even more than the likely flipping margin. So I beg to differ that anyone else could have done what you were able to do.
Still, I do appreciate your sharing the technique!
Demand would develop for the issues on their own merits, over time. Collectors would not get jerked around nearly as much as they do presently.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>No way. Everybody's got a fair chance to get the coins. >>
As I mentioned a few days ago, I was in an all-day training seminar at work on Thursday, one which was essential and mandatory for me. So while I didn't want one anyway, I wouldn't say I had a "fair chance" to get in on this one.
I wouldn't define a "fair chance" as anything less than about a week of guaranteed availability.
With the delay in delivery of the first two coins a lot of cancellations must have taken place. I am hoping that they don't reopen sales of the Washington and Adams coins. They killed the First Day Cover program for the State Quarters when sales were reopened.
<< <i>I had my two coins at 12:04 because I was prepared. >>
pendragon1998, as far as I have seen that is the earliest time stamp on an order from anyone on the board, could you share the order number so I can get a feel for how many orders went in before mine went through at 12:43 (order number 26287xxx) you can PM if you do not want to make it public.
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
Or even better - DO NOT ANNOUNCE THE ON SALE DATE OR TIME. Just pop it onto the site and surpise everyone. Won't take long for word to get out but it will keep the large scale flippers on balance. I had to place an order for a friend who drives a truck. He would have never got his order in otherwise. I had a meeting on the first round only to get back to my office and see the sell out notice. I was pissed. I cleared my calender this time around.
With all the hype on this one and the classic design - there were a lot more people buying who would not normally buy "modern crap".
As for the guy who says he got 100 orders (who was pre-selling before they went on-sale and says he is new at this).
If he is not a scammer (and I do have my suspicions) he would have needed 50 plus people/computers to place that many orders.
If he did really pull it off, it is shameless people like him and the large scale flippers that are the problem. How many modern dealers had a network of buyers ready to go? A lot I am sure.
I see no problem with flipping just enough to acquire but when you try to corner the market at others expense - it's plain wrong.
I all I can for the next round is "Well hello Dolly" and start working on the friends and family plan.
<< <i>
<< <i>No way. Everybody's got a fair chance to get the coins. Just because someone's buying to flip doesn't mean that a collector takes second seat to them. The problem was that the mint's computer system and phone system are not up to the task of dealing with such high traffic. >>
The problem mentioned in the OP is that flippers are getting more than the minimum which is a different issue than you're discussing. When people get more than the minimum, everybody does not have a fair chance. >>
That's correct. The main point of the OP was the individuals obtaining the 50 to 100 coins; and the coins being locked up in 2 hours with the vast majority of collectors not having a chance due to the time period offered.
Improving the Mints' internet connections will certainly not help the problem; it will only allow the coins to be sold out faster with more efficiency.
With a lottery, a person may have a 'network' set up to get 100 purchase/entries in; but they would by no means be assured of getting near that amount. Maybe they would only be able to get 10 or so, depending on how many were attempting to enter/purchase.
I am not necessarily recommending that the Mint go to a lottery system. However, something has got to change.... and I'm sure the Mint will make changes again for the next one.
Did someone NOT get their order in??
So what's the problem? Why is this question even out there?
Secondly, the system the Mint has is *already* a lottery of sorts. Thousands of people were calling at the same time--if you happened to get in, it's due to pure dumb luck...you just happened to call at the exact right moment.
<<
I was there on a very fast connection, already logged into my account about 15 minutes before 12, with my quick checkout options pre-set, and two browser windows open to the first spouse page. When the time came around, I just refreshed both windows, hit "add to cart" for the uncirculated one in one window and for the proof in the other, waited for the cart page to come up and hit quick checkout.
I had my two coins at 12:04 because I was prepared. Fortune favors the prepared mind. Anyone else could have done the same thing, provided they thought ahead and could get access to a decent internet connection (free at libraries and most offices these days, cheap at most homes).
>>
I hate to break it to you, but that was not preparation, it was luck. Others did the exact same thing as you but it took over an hour for the server to respond to their order requests. You happened to get in at the exact right microsecond--just like those who got through over the phone just happened to call at the exact second that the phone load was low enough for them to get queued.
<<
Another good idea is to drag out the credit processing for returns. If someone returns $15000 of a single item, take 5 months to process the credit. While they pay credit card interest, they can be thinking about how much they like hosing collectors by hogging mint issues.
>>
Good luck with that. People tend to get just a little upset when someone holds $15k of their money. I'm not even sure it's legal to deliberately delay the issuing of credits. Besides, from a buyer's standpoint, there's a simple solution: dispute the credit card charge and have it reversed. Then your available credit is restored instantly and there are no interest charges to pay.
<<
Would I have taken the day off to order my limit of two? No. That kind of personal time is worth even more than the likely flipping margin
>>
Dang, I wish I made $1,000 per day.
<<
With a lottery, a person may have a 'network' set up to get 100 purchase/entries in; but they would by no means be assured of getting near that amount.
>>
With the present system, nobody is assured of anything either. It took me 90 minutes to place a single order. These sold out after about 120 minutes. I guarantee there are people out there who hit redial every few seconds, starting at 12 PM, and STILL didn't get in before sellout. If that's not a lottery, I don't know what is!
<< <i>The BEP has done it. Worked well - because I won! >>
Please don't compare the BEP with their limited mintages of 500 or 1000 to the US Mint. BEP's website has a tendency to crash on 1/10th of the Mints volume. The best way is to resolve the Mint's dilema is to mint to demand within a 3 month time frame.
Dam_ Where is that spell check when I need it....
Every citizen of the republic should have a right to purchase from the mint. The mint should have no concern if a secondary market
exist or not. If a citizen wishes to purchase, let him purchase. The government does not have a mandate to created limited edition
collectibles. They have the ability to create millions.
And don't announce mintages until sale period is over.
Too many people, myself included, are using this as a money making opportunity instead of just "do I want to have this item and this
price to own."
Only exception is of course something like GSA dollars, where they didn't have the ability to satisify.
<< <i>No. Congress should let the Mint make as many as are ordered, and soon the problem of demand will solve itself >>
If they did that, they would sell far fewer coins. The limit is what makes people interested in the first place (exception: the Liberty would have sold well no matter the limit, due to its design).
If that is what the market will bear then perhaps that is the correct number the mint should be selling. In part the answer may depend on what people think the role of the Governemnt is, and what the mission of the US Mint is, or should be
If the mint wanted to make more $$$$$, and excitement among collector (and speculators), they could (if in line with the authority provided by Congress
No higher mintages for the reasons pointed out.
Instead, orders should only be accepted by smail mail and each must include an original,
handwritten 500-word essay titled "Why I want this coin for my collection".
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>
....Instead, orders should only be accepted by smail mail and each must include an original,
handwritten 500-word essay titled "Why I want this coin for my collection".
LOL! Can you imagine the mint's 'customer service reps' reading the essays!!!
<< <i>In part the answer may depend on what people think the role of the Governemnt is, and what the mission of the US Mint is, or should be. >>
I have posted the Mint's Mission Statement here several times. "Making a profit" is very high on the list. Google it and see.
I would though say a better way is to sell them for 30 days with limits of 5 and supply enough for the demand its way better and is fair to collectors rather then only to speculators.
<< <i>my take on the spouse program is to have a lottery if the mintage's are to be held to current levels.
I would though say a better way is to sell them for 30 days with limits of 5 and supply enough for the demand its way better and is fair to collectors rather then only to speculators. >>
If the Mint were to announce maximum mintage of 100,000 coins (per Spouse) with no household limit, the Mint will have a hard time selling 20,000 coins per option.
Box of 20
Cut the mintage limit to 10,000 and remove all buying limits!!!! That way the price will go through the roof. Supply and demand will set the price. You want to collect but could not get in on the Mint price, then pay up!!!
Of course, the bottleneck currently in the system may create percieved demand where there is actually none...I mean according to this forum, almost no one actually wants these coins
Stephen
<< <i>
The orders will still be screened as they come in.... so 'repeat' orders will still be able to be dropped out, limits enforced, etc.
>>
If they could do this one thing then we would not be having this conversation.