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Ponderings about modern survival rates...
kiyote
Posts: 5,588 ✭✭✭✭✭
Take modern commem dollars, for example. A lot of people seem to think they have 100% survival rate because people aren't dumb like they were in the old days-- they don't throw away the packaging and whizz the coins with Comet.
But people *are* just as dumb today. They throw away the packaging and bake the coins in potatoes or use some other method to grossly overtone them, then people throw $90, $150 at a coin that was only worth $30. How many ASEs have ended up in an oven!?
I just don't buy the 100% survival rate theory at all.
But people *are* just as dumb today. They throw away the packaging and bake the coins in potatoes or use some other method to grossly overtone them, then people throw $90, $150 at a coin that was only worth $30. How many ASEs have ended up in an oven!?
I just don't buy the 100% survival rate theory at all.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
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<< <i>Take modern commem dollars, for example. A lot of people seem to think they have 100% survival rate because people aren't dumb like they were in the old days-- they don't throw away the packaging and whizz the coins with Comet.
But people *are* just as dumb today. They throw away the packaging and bake the coins in potatoes or use some other method to grossly overtone them, then people throw $90, $150 at a coin that was only worth $30. How many ASEs have ended up in an oven!?
I just don't buy the 100% survival rate theory at all. >>
And your not even counting milk spots which ASE's are notorious for. I believe a original spot-free ASE in a top grade may be rarity eventually.
<< <i>It may not be 100%, but it is still very, very high. >>
yup, and you have to consider the collector base. IF only say perhaps 75% are still around, are there buyers for all of these coins; or at least enough buyers to keep their "value" at a few percentage points higher than what the Mint sold them for.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Take modern commem dollars, for example. A lot of people seem to think they have 100% survival rate because people aren't dumb like they were in the old days-- they don't throw away the packaging and whizz the coins with Comet.
But people *are* just as dumb today. They throw away the packaging and bake the coins in potatoes or use some other method to grossly overtone them, then people throw $90, $150 at a coin that was only worth $30. How many ASEs have ended up in an oven!?
I just don't buy the 100% survival rate theory at all. >>
It really does not matter what they do with them. The supply of quality coins far excedds true collector demand 2 years from now.
<< <i>Let's see 0.90 x 300 million still equals 270 MILLION GW dollars! >>
That's almost as many 1880s Morgans there are!
<< <i>I think it is a real issue when it comes to early date Proof and MS Plats - no one will really know for sure just how many survive but just take a moment and check out the PCGS graded pops on a coin like a 1998 MS $100 with a 133,000 mintage as compared with the last few year $100's with mintages of 6,000-8,000 (say, 2003-2005). Try finding a fresh roll of 1998 $100 Plats and see how long it may take you. Wondercoin >>
I know people love the proof platinum coins, but I really wonder how many generic date MS plats are simply getting melted down. The demand for a 2000 quarter oz MS plat is about 0, yet it's worth damn near $330.00 just in melt value.
another three or four percent being degraded. It would be lower for gold since
they are better protected. But keep in mind that there will be more being inten-
tionally destroyed for use of their metal.
Platinum coins are apparently being used by "consumers". These would mostly be
labs and small manufacturers. The attrition could be high on these.
<< <i>
And your not even counting milk spots which ASE's are notorious for. I believe a original spot-free ASE in a top grade may be rarity eventually. >>
There is no evidence that modern silver commems milk spot like silver eagle's do. Not the same compostiton.
As for the OP, I think you're right for both silver and gold. I was in a local dealers shop a few years ago and he told me h was selling common date modern gold commems for melt. Not at melt but for melt. These modern commemorative issues are so taken for granted that often times they are thought of as nothing more than bullion. And the original packaging is routinely trashed as being to bulky. Surviving numbers may really surprise people years from now. IMO
As an interesting story I gave my girlfriend one of the 2000 1/4 oz plats and she lost it in the bottom of her purse with all of her change quarters, and almost spent it! Damn, never should have given it to her...
Dispersion is different than wastage or destruction however, and would be the reason for there possibly not being as many rolls of the '98 plat 1 oz. (or others for that matter) - these coins are not destroyed but rather "spread" most likely.
I have noticed when visiting friends and relatives, especially those older than about 50 that they have boxes, cans, bottles full of clad junk including Ikes, Suzies, JFKs, quarters, pennies, etc. in the thousands and this is probably where many of the state quarters will end up. Not sure about the prezzies as these do not seem to be getting into circulation and probably have different dispersion patterns.
Well, just Love coins, period.