Ponderings about modern survival rates...

kiyote

Take modern commem dollars, for example. A lot of people seem to think they have 100% survival rate because people aren't dumb like they were in the old days-- they don't throw away the packaging and whizz the coins with Comet.

But people *are* just as dumb today. They throw away the packaging and bake the coins in potatoes or use some other method to grossly overtone them, then people throw $90, $150 at a coin that was only worth $30. How many ASEs have ended up in an oven!?

I just don't buy the 100% survival rate theory at all.

FLBuffaloHunter

<< <i>Take modern commem dollars, for example. A lot of people seem to think they have 100% survival rate because people aren't dumb like they were in the old days-- they don't throw away the packaging and whizz the coins with Comet.

But people *are* just as dumb today. They throw away the packaging and bake the coins in potatoes or use some other method to grossly overtone them, then people throw $90, $150 at a coin that was only worth $30. How many ASEs have ended up in an oven!?

I just don't buy the 100% survival rate theory at all. >>


And your not even counting milk spots which ASE's are notorious for. I believe a original spot-free ASE in a top grade may be rarity eventually.

cvan68

I would still believe it is >90%

291fifth

It may not be 100%, but it is still very, very high.

Doogy

<< <i>It may not be 100%, but it is still very, very high. >>



yup, and you have to consider the collector base. IF only say perhaps 75% are still around, are there buyers for all of these coins; or at least enough buyers to keep their "value" at a few percentage points higher than what the Mint sold them for.

7Jaguars

Let's see 0.90 x 300 million still equals 270 MILLION GW dollars!

kwmorgan

I have a ton of 1987 Constitution silver dollars. Bought them at melt, minus their packaging. Nonetheless, I treat them with the same respect as I do my most prized Morgans. I know mine will survive for quite some time.

wondercoin

I think it is a real issue when it comes to early date Proof and MS Plats - no one will really know for sure just how many survive but just take a moment and check out the PCGS graded pops on a coin like a 1998 MS $100 with a 133,000 mintage as compared with the last few year $100's with mintages of 6,000-8,000 (say, 2003-2005). Try finding a fresh roll of 1998 $100 Plats and see how long it may take you. Wondercoin

SFDukie

I think "effective survival" varies greatly. There are some issues which were bought mostly by collectors (generally, but not exclusively the lower mintage issues), others bought by folks because of a connection with the specific issue (atl oly issues), or because the coin has a particularly attractive design (buffs). Survial rates for robinsons and LOCs will be very high. Many of those bought primarily by noncollectors will end up in poor shape down the line, because they're stored in basements and attics.

sonoranmonsoon

<< <i>Take modern commem dollars, for example. A lot of people seem to think they have 100% survival rate because people aren't dumb like they were in the old days-- they don't throw away the packaging and whizz the coins with Comet.

But people *are* just as dumb today. They throw away the packaging and bake the coins in potatoes or use some other method to grossly overtone them, then people throw $90, $150 at a coin that was only worth $30. How many ASEs have ended up in an oven!?

I just don't buy the 100% survival rate theory at all. >>



It really does not matter what they do with them. The supply of quality coins far excedds true collector demand 2 years from now.

kiyote

<< <i>Let's see 0.90 x 300 million still equals 270 MILLION GW dollars! >>



That's almost as many 1880s Morgans there are!

kiyote

<< <i>I think it is a real issue when it comes to early date Proof and MS Plats - no one will really know for sure just how many survive but just take a moment and check out the PCGS graded pops on a coin like a 1998 MS $100 with a 133,000 mintage as compared with the last few year $100's with mintages of 6,000-8,000 (say, 2003-2005). Try finding a fresh roll of 1998 $100 Plats and see how long it may take you. Wondercoin >>



I know people love the proof platinum coins, but I really wonder how many generic date MS plats are simply getting melted down. The demand for a 2000 quarter oz MS plat is about 0, yet it's worth damn near $330.00 just in melt value.

oldcameoproofsguy

I think that in 200 years they might be worth something. After that maybe 60-70% will have survived.

GrumpyEd

Maybe we would need to save GWs for a few hundred years and they will still be cheap. Bank interest will be a better deal. If you save some make sure they are super gems.

cladking

There should be about 1% being utterly destroyed annually. There are probably
another three or four percent being degraded. It would be lower for gold since
they are better protected. But keep in mind that there will be more being inten-
tionally destroyed for use of their metal.

Platinum coins are apparently being used by "consumers". These would mostly be
labs and small manufacturers. The attrition could be high on these.

CoinHusker

<< <i>
And your not even counting milk spots which ASE's are notorious for. I believe a original spot-free ASE in a top grade may be rarity eventually. >>




There is no evidence that modern silver commems milk spot like silver eagle's do. Not the same compostiton.

As for the OP, I think you're right for both silver and gold. I was in a local dealers shop a few years ago and he told me h was selling common date modern gold commems for melt. Not at melt but for melt. These modern commemorative issues are so taken for granted that often times they are thought of as nothing more than bullion. And the original packaging is routinely trashed as being to bulky. Surviving numbers may really surprise people years from now. IMO

7Jaguars

One thing that is interesting is that platinum is not the easiest to melt when I look in the chemistry book. Also, even though it is used for cat converters on cars, etc. I have never seen any citations of coins being used or "recirculated" into this use even though it must occur.

As an interesting story I gave my girlfriend one of the 2000 1/4 oz plats and she lost it in the bottom of her purse with all of her change quarters, and almost spent it! Damn, never should have given it to her...

Dispersion is different than wastage or destruction however, and would be the reason for there possibly not being as many rolls of the '98 plat 1 oz. (or others for that matter) - these coins are not destroyed but rather "spread" most likely.

I have noticed when visiting friends and relatives, especially those older than about 50 that they have boxes, cans, bottles full of clad junk including Ikes, Suzies, JFKs, quarters, pennies, etc. in the thousands and this is probably where many of the state quarters will end up. Not sure about the prezzies as these do not seem to be getting into circulation and probably have different dispersion patterns.