Will AT or NT really matter in the long run?
mercurydimeguy
Posts: 4,625 ✭✭✭✭
Here's my thesis -- eventually TPG's will slab all toned coins with "TONED" on the slab (or some other distinguishing slab characteristic), and let the market dictate what a coin is worth. There is too much risk -- long term -- if they don't do something like this. If grading is not a precise science, then the ability to tell age toning versus instantaneous toning is even less of a precise science and will actually become more difficult over time as technology advances and people become better at toning coins. This way TPG's can stick to grading and authenticating while "TONING" becomes a simple albeit relevant attribute.
I suspect that instantaneously toned coins will become even more beautiful over time, and might actually become more desirable over age toned coins that often do not exhibit uniform toning like instantaneously toned coins do.
Today we perceive there to be a problem of AT vs. NT. What I’ve learned in my business life is if you are faced with a problem that has no realistic solution, then change the problem to something you can fix or at the very least manage. So I ask – why the fuss over AT vs. NT anyway? This problem cannot be easily solved, so change the problem to something that free markets can remediate – let the market decide what a coin is worth. Set principals aside, and look at the practicality of free market capitalism in context of coins.
Fire away
/mdg
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up to the plate to buy NT toned coins for any type of premium.
soon the hobby will go full circle and those coins will all be dipped
back to white.
in the meantime, a few collectors will continue to attempt to buy
original coins and ignore the whole mess.
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
<< <i>If you don't think AT is a problem, you are mistaken. >>
Is the AT/NT issue something the ANA needs to get involved in for anything substantial to happen?
<< <i>
<< <i>If you don't think AT is a problem, you are mistaken. >>
Is the AT/NT issue something the ANA needs to get involved in for anything substantial to happen? >>
You guys are not thinking about the HUGE grey area with AT vs. NT. There is simply no way of stopping or controlling it. It is a waste of time and effort to even think about it!
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
<< <i>I once was offered a solid black 1874 trade dollar in a PCGS MS65 holder. There's simply no way it looked like that when it was graded. If you don't think AT is a problem, you are mistaken. >>
TDN, but you solved the problem by not buying it...in practicality supporting my thesis. No?
<< <i>I once was offered a solid black 1874 trade dollar in a PCGS MS65 holder. There's simply no way it looked like that when it was graded. If you don't think AT is a problem, you are mistaken. >>
This is one of the key points in my mind. We've seen the slow and steady effects of NT'ed coins over decades and decades
...seems predictable.
What happens over 5 - 10 years to a coin that has been quickly artificially toned with chemicals or whatever? Is
the short term "appealing color" going to last?
You want to run the risk of having your coins turning black or worse in 5 years?
<< <i>
<< <i>I once was offered a solid black 1874 trade dollar in a PCGS MS65 holder. There's simply no way it looked like that when it was graded. If you don't think AT is a problem, you are mistaken. >>
TDN, but you solved the problem by not buying it...in practicality supporting my thesis. No? >>
The pops never dropped - so someone bought it and still owns it! Point being that those who state it doesn't matter if a coin is AT or NT are ignoring the fact that in many instances the AT coin is unstable and changes over time.
<< <i>I once was offered a solid black 1874 trade dollar in a PCGS MS65 holder. There's simply no way it looked like that when it was graded. If you don't think AT is a problem, you are mistaken. >>
Just out of chemistry-curiosity, does anyone know what process would result in the eventual blackening of a coin alloy?
and they're cold.
I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
Mary
Best Franklin Website
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I once was offered a solid black 1874 trade dollar in a PCGS MS65 holder. There's simply no way it looked like that when it was graded. If you don't think AT is a problem, you are mistaken. >>
TDN, but you solved the problem by not buying it...in practicality supporting my thesis. No? >>
The pops never dropped - so someone bought it and still owns it! Point being that those who state it doesn't matter if a coin is AT or NT are ignoring the fact that in many instances the AT coin is unstable and changes over time. >>
It's not that AT or NT doesn't matter, it's just that there is no solution to fix the problem. So, all the debates and fuss about it has no purpose. BTW, a naturally toned coin can also turn black over time.
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I once was offered a solid black 1874 trade dollar in a PCGS MS65 holder. There's simply no way it looked like that when it was graded. If you don't think AT is a problem, you are mistaken. >>
TDN, but you solved the problem by not buying it...in practicality supporting my thesis. No? >>
The pops never dropped - so someone bought it and still owns it! Point being that those who state it doesn't matter if a coin is AT or NT are ignoring the fact that in many instances the AT coin is unstable and changes over time. >>
Would PCGS still grade that as MS65 after it turned?
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
The pops never dropped - so someone bought it and still owns it! Point being that those who state it doesn't matter if a coin is AT or NT are ignoring the fact that in many instances the AT coin is unstable and changes over time.
No argument about the chemistry aspect of your comment, but a person who can [presumably] see will dictate what such a black coin is worth and what he/she should pay for it.
If a TPG just slabbed it as toned, then they did their part. What the toning looks like, and the market dynamics around what such a coin should fetch, should be up to the market -- and not the TPG.
Who are we to judge if someone likes black coins? Maybe that's attractive to them? After all, there are people building sets -- Registry Sets, even -- of coins that are barely recognizable and to them they're beautiful. I've seen people pay MS6x++ money for coins in PCGS P01 holders.
...just another perspective...
/mdg.
<< <i>Will AT or NT really matter in the long run? >>
Going by what I see posted on these boards, it doesn't really matter now. The ol' "If it's pretty and you like it is all that matters" seems to prevail...... if it's cheap and this IMO is how it's justified...... CHEAP. Then when a high dollar one is "Made" everybody all of a sudden becomes a hypocrite.
And become outraged! They gotta practice on something, and for those that think it's OK when it's "cheap" they are only supporting the ones that are making these for you. Slam away..... I still think if you just gotta see color, and don't care if it's fake, go buy a colored bag of marbles and share with all you little friends.
I sure hope it makes a difference.
It can't work that way because of the TPG grade guaranty. There's simply no way they want to guaranty the grade of a potentially unstable coin. So either they get rid of their guaranty or they screen out as much unstable junk as they can ... no middle ground on that one.
<< <i>If a TPG just slabbed it as toned, then they did their part.
It can't work that way because of the TPG grade guaranty. There's simply no way they want to guaranty the grade of a potentially unstable coin. So either they get rid of their guaranty or they screen out as much unstable junk as they can ... no middle ground on that one. >>
Again, it is very difficult to tell the difference. I know that a TPG should prbably just err on the conservative side, but as more and more of these things are created, that means A LOT of bodybagged coins. What happens when 50% of all coins sent to a particular TPG get Bodybagged? How about 75%? Me thinks there business would suffer or die.
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
<< <i>If a TPG just slabbed it as toned, then they did their part.
It can't work that way because of the TPG grade guaranty. There's simply no way they want to guaranty the grade of a potentially unstable coin. So either they get rid of their guaranty or they screen out as much unstable junk as they can ... no middle ground on that one. >>
I think what you're alluding to is that grade somehow (+/-) is influenced by the color of the coin? I don't need to post 100's of picture to debate that point of view. I can show you stuning looking Morgans in a MS62 holders that sell for moon money while I can show you utter DOGS in MS65 holders...that I doubt where ever stunning when slabbed. The grade on the coin probably serves more as a barometric reading for where to begin negotiating the price. Color cannot change how many ticks/hits a coin has (although color can hide these) and although it does "sometimes" lead to market grading, there are 10,000's of coins that are in low grade MS and even non-MS holders that are stunning! Look at some of the cursty busties
The TPG has every right to filter out coins it's worried may turn over time thus triggering its grade guaranty.
<< <i>Toning certainly does impact the assigned grade of a coin. A light iridescently toned coin is going to be graded higher than a dark opaquely toned coin.
The TPG has every right to filter out coins it's worried may turn over time thus triggering its grade guaranty. >>
So should all coins (perhaps 10,000's of thousands) that look like this be sent in for a grade guaranty (it's currently in a MS65 holder)?:
Just because a coin might be considered unattractive by some doesn't mean that it's not in Mint State 65 condition. And on the other hand just because it's wildly toned doesn't mean that it doesn't belong in an authenticated and graded holder marked, "TONED"?...does it...interested in your perspective?
DISCLAIMER: Picture belongs to TeleTrade.
silver war nickels get quite black.
would the trade dollar (blackened) be subjected to a good ol' dip?
Coins can be graded as:Toned AC*
Toned IC**
*Accidental color(s)
**Intentioal color(s)
The doc is very often hiding problems.
and they're cold.
I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
Mary
Best Franklin Website