Silver over $14 today?
tincup
Posts: 5,479 ✭✭✭✭✭
Looks like the metals are starting off rather nicely anyways. If it closes over $14..... what say you on where it will go?
(yes.... I will beat you to it..... price will go up, and price will go down!)
(yes.... I will beat you to it..... price will go up, and price will go down!)
----- kj
0
Comments
of many traders who purchased at a level and now will sell just for the opportunity
to break even. There was a huge amount of actual buying and selling on the way
up in late-'79 and the way down in 1980 at this level. Then it was reached and ex-
ceeded again a couple times in the early/ mid '80's.
Once the market gets firmly above this level it might get quite interesting. This is
the third time it's reached this recently so it may be poised to take it out.
People are still ignoring nickel but it was up 7c per ounce ealier today. That's right;
seven cents per troy ounce!
<< <i>I would not be surprised to see $1000 gold and $20 silver one year from now, IMHO. >>
A 1 OZ Silver eagle coin says you're WRONG!
OR not. Who knows. I think that sub $13 silver is gone forever, though.
TO THE MOON!
<< <i>There is almost no resistance above $14. Resistance is caused by the presense
of many traders who purchased at a level and now will sell just for the opportunity
to break even. There was a huge amount of actual buying and selling on the way
up in late-'79 and the way down in 1980 at this level. Then it was reached and ex-
ceeded again a couple times in the early/ mid '80's.
Once the market gets firmly above this level it might get quite interesting. This is
the third time it's reached this recently so it may be poised to take it out.
People are still ignoring nickel but it was up 7c per ounce ealier today. That's right;
seven cents per troy ounce! >>
Nickel: the new precious metal!
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
<< <i>People are still ignoring nickel but it was up 7c per ounce ealier today. That's right;
seven cents per troy ounce! >>
Are you sure? The chart I was looking at showed 7 cents per pound...
Kitco
<< <i>Are you sure? The chart I was looking at showed 7 cents per pound...
>>
It was up only 70c a pound on the close but was up much more earlier in the day, per Kitco.
<< <i>Everytime it nears $15 BAM it sinks to $12 so watch out! >>
Oooh, that wall of worry is alive and kicking.
<< <i>Everytime it nears $15 BAM it sinks to $12 so watch out! >>
I'm really not too concerned.... certainly not enough to 'watch out!' When it does dip like that, it usually rebounds in 2 weeks or less.
Eventually, it is going to blow past that point. Don't miss the ride!
the ceiling and float like a beautiful balloon.
Camelot
Bear, i thought bears held balloons down to keep them from floating away?
it's gonna be difficult holding those balloons and
keeping them from floating away.
Camelot
And when the price returns to the low end of the established trading range, I'll repurchase my 800 ounces, most likely.
Of course it does.. silver base means proportional increase in coin value. You will see $17 silver and $700 gold before year end... bank on it. Cheers. RickO
<< <i>Everytime it nears $15 BAM it sinks to $12 so watch out! >>
If silver hits $12 again I will send you a nice silver gift(PCGS ms69 reverse proof aniv silver dollar)
Mark my words, silver will not hit $12 again!!!
Keith
<< <i>
<< <i>Everytime it nears $15 BAM it sinks to $12 so watch out! >>
If silver hits $12 again I will send you a nice silver gift(PCGS ms69 reverse proof aniv silver dollar)
Mark my words, silver will not hit $12 again!!!
Keith
Is that a mint error or something
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I have no idea how high it might go.
The chance that it will never again dip below
$10.00 are pretty close to zero.
There will come a time when "buy and hold" does not
work well.
Many folks with profits in physical silver will be taking them,
soon. Some will then move money into the ETF (SLV),
when $10.00 approaches.
You will never go broke taking a profit.
<< <i>"I think that sub $13 silver is gone forever, though. "
/////////////////////////////////////////////
I have no idea how high it might go.
The chance that it will never again dip below
$10.00 are pretty close to zero.
There will come a time when "buy and hold" does not
work well.
Many folks with profits in physical silver will be taking them,
soon. Some will then move money into to the ETF (SLV),
when $10.00 approaches.
You will never go broke taking a profit.
I've got a hunch that once it breaks clear of $14 it won't be
back below $10 for a few generations at least. The metal just
keeps disappearing and there's little likelyhood of decreased de-
mand or a greatly increased supply in the foreseeable future.
"You will never go broke taking a profit." -sound advice nonetheless.
Mark my words, silver will not hit $12 again!!!
If so, then all the boogie-monsters that Ted Butler moans and groans about will be dead.
<< <i>One of these days, its a gonna break thru
the ceiling and float like a beautiful balloon. >>
I agree with Bear. More so with gold after it breaks the all time highs at $800. That will be among the best times to buy in terms of risk/reward. I expect a lot of the punters here will be selling gold at $800 thinking they are selling high. If I had to guess, I'd say those folks will be getting off the train just as it gets ready for an express run.
Gold will hold at or near 650.
I have marked this thread to watch over the next 14 days. Not counting the weekends of course.
Gold will hold at or near 650. I have marked this thread
to watch over the next 14 days. Not counting the weekends,
of course.
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Late April through May could see some interesting upticks,
for both metals. They will not stick through summer, and
prices will climb again in late October+/-.
The "sell in May and go away" stock-players may park some
money in the SLV game, maybe not.
We will almost certainly see <$10.00 silver this year.
It is always good to have some metals stashed in case
something really bad happens, but holding huge piles
for years on end is - has been - the road to losses.
I have followed metals almost everyday since 1977, and
I have no clue what they will do from one day to the next.
I only know that when they go dead, they can stay dead for
a VERY looooooooong time.
I am not meaning to be discouraging. Silver-bugs are cool
and their lottery-tickets are worth playing. Money can can be
made, but the stuff needs to be turned back into cash
before ANY money is made.
I know paper-money is "no good," but it is still how the
world keeps score; and, it will be so for a long time.
and their lottery-tickets are worth playing. Money can can be
made, but the stuff needs to be turned back into cash
before ANY money is made.
I know paper-money is "no good," but it is still how the
world keeps score; and, it will be so for a long time."
A Very sobering thought!
How prophetic?
Miles
<< <i>
<< <i>One of these days, its a gonna break thru
the ceiling and float like a beautiful balloon. >>
I agree with Bear. More so with gold after it breaks the all time highs at $800. That will be among the best times to buy in terms of risk/reward. I expect a lot of the punters here will be selling gold at $800 thinking they are selling high. If I had to guess, I'd say those folks will be getting off the train just as it gets ready for an express run. >>
I buy and sell precious metals at all price levels, in bull and bear markets, at depressed prices, during breakouts, and everytime in between. I make roughly the same margins no matter what the price is. Precious metals are a commodity. Commodities are traded, not "held forever".
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Yup.
BUT, alot of oldtimers keep thinking that there
could be a "1980 moment" any day now. It
may come, but the day and the hour knoweth
nobody.
It is still good to have some on hand, but trading
it is the only way to make steady money on it.
<< <i> I buy and sell precious metals at all price levels, in bull and bear markets, at depressed prices, during breakouts, and everytime in between. I make roughly the same margins no matter what the price is. Precious metals are a commodity. Commodities are traded, not "held forever".
//////////////////////////////////////////////
Yup.
BUT, alot of oldtimers keep thinking that there
could be a "1980 moment" any day now. It
may come, but the day and the hour knoweth
nobody.
It is still good to have some on hand, but trading
it is the only way to make steady money on it. >>
Yes, the allure of the 1980 moment is how PM hucksters take advantage of people through overpriced "investment strategies"--a simple search on google brings about hundreds of them, each quoting the same prices from the silver crisis, but leaving out the Hunt brothers portion of the story, lol. One thing I'm fairly confident in is my inability to accurately predict the precious metals market. If we could time it right, we'd all be rich. Short of that, tangible profits can be made by buying on dips and selling on spikes, don't get greedy, don't lose focus, and take small profits as they come. Another downside to the early 80's boom that nobody mentions is the millions of people that lost their fortunes buying at those elevated levels, believing it was the "breakout point", only to watch as their life savings spiraled into the gutter. By the time it becomes apparent that one should be "in on it", it's usually already to late, and likewise when it's time to sell. Regardless what the trend may be, mall profits can be made over and over again trading the spreads.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>One of these days, its a gonna break thru
the ceiling and float like a beautiful balloon. >>
I agree with Bear. More so with gold after it breaks the all time highs at $800. That will be among the best times to buy in terms of risk/reward. I expect a lot of the punters here will be selling gold at $800 thinking they are selling high. If I had to guess, I'd say those folks will be getting off the train just as it gets ready for an express run. >>
I buy and sell precious metals at all price levels, in bull and bear markets, at depressed prices, during breakouts, and everytime in between. I make roughly the same margins no matter what the price is. Precious metals are a commodity. Commodities are traded, not "held forever". >>
So you are a dealer that makes money on the spread. I'm not sure what relevance making money on the bid/ask spread has for the vast majority of readers that are not dealers.
Let me remind the readers, that most of the large fortunes in commodities have been made by trend followers trading on margin. Snipers and floor traders picking off eigths and tenths can make a good living, but the many of the big fish got that way by being trend followers. Secular bull markets can take commodities to completely crazy prices. It has happened before and will happen again. Not so much in precious metals, but in almost all other traded commodities.
Readers know that I do not advocate timing, trading, or leverage, for average collectors, because they will lose most of the time. For collectors, averaging in and averaging out, and holding positions for a long time usually works much better than trading for 50 cents profit and paying to get in and out. Dealers and brokers, of course, would love that, because they make their vigorish on each entry and exit.
W.C. Fields
Kooks? Hardly. As businessmen the Hunts took advantage of a paper dominated market that was supposed to be a metals market.
The only reason they didn't win is because those who had rigged the markets were getting killed. Hence the rules were changed to protect the guility and to preserve the sham of a market.
The same basic thing is happening today only instead of a couple of "Kooks" the market is much more spread out. The number of people who know that paper silver contracts far outnumber the physical silver is much larger than existed in the late 1970's.
roadrunner
<< <i>"I think that sub $13 silver is gone forever, though. "
/////////////////////////////////////////////
I have no idea how high it might go.
The chance that it will never again dip below
$10.00 are pretty close to zero.
There will come a time when "buy and hold" does not
work well.
Many folks with profits in physical silver will be taking them,
soon. Some will then move money into the ETF (SLV),
when $10.00 approaches.
You will never go broke taking a profit.
That is an interesting and valid strategy. The only problem that I can see with it is the expectation that silver will approach the $10 level again. Certainly if we all could truely predict this, we could all have fortunes. I myself would not want to be left out if and when the 'breakout' occurs. But then... I'm a more cautious buy and hold type person.
<< <i>Namely, a couple of kooks trying to corner the market.
Kooks? Hardly. As businessmen the Hunts took advantage of a paper dominated market that was supposed to be a metals market.
The only reason they didn't win is because those who had rigged the markets were getting killed. Hence the rules were changed to protect the guility and to preserve the sham of a market.
The same basic thing is happening today only instead of a couple of "Kooks" the market is much more spread out. The number of people who know that paper silver contracts far outnumber the physical silver is much larger than existed in the late 1970's.
roadrunner >>
I suggest you read a little about the Hunt brothers, and not use soley as a source of information a silver investment flyer or doomsday clowns that preach the virtues of the kooky scammers otherwise known as the Hunt brothers. If you believe they are good guys, on your side, who faught the good fight, you're mistaken.
A brief synopsis provided by Brian Trumbore
"In 1973, the Hunt family of Texas, possibly the richest family in America at the time, decided to buy precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Gold could not be held by private citizens at that time, so the Hunts began to buy silver in enormous quantity.
In 1979 the sons of patriarch H.L. Hunt, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert, together with some wealthy Arabs, formed a silver pool. In a short period of time they had amassed more than 200 million ounces of silver, equivalent to half the world's deliverable supply.
When the Hunt's had begun accumulating silver back in 1973 the price was in the $1.95 / ounce range. Early in '79, the price was about $5. Late '79 / early '80 the price was in the $50's, peaking at $54.
Once the silver market was cornered, outsiders joined the chase but a combination of changed trading rules on the New York Metals Market (COMEX) and the intervention of the Federal Reserve put an end to the game. The price began to slide, culminating in a 50% one-day decline on March 27, 1980 as the price plummeted from $21.62 to $10.80.
The collapse of the silver market meant countless losses for speculators. The Hunt brothers declared bankruptcy. By 1987 their liabilities had grown to nearly $2.5 billion against assets of $1.5 billion. In August of 1988 the Hunts were convicted of conspiring to manipulate the market."
Let's evaluate Nelson more closely:
Nelson Bunker Hunt, elitist, new world order advocate, and a few highlights of his personality:
Member of the John Birch Society, member of the International Association for the Advancement of Ethnology and Eugenics (Hitler inspired eugenics freaks), member of and large contributor for numerous racist, right-wing Christian front organizations, convicted felon, member of the Bilderburg Group, member of Bohemian Grove, and the list goes on and on.
Under any definition of the word, the Hunt brothers were kooks. You might support what they did with the silver market (why, I have no idea), but they are and were kooks of the highest order silver scandal or no silver scandal.
<< <i>A 5 cent coin now contains 9.23c of base metal. >>
I guess it won't be long before the mint starts making them out of the stuff they make pennies! Everybody start hoarding nickels!
the_northern_trading_company
ace@airadv.net
If a Hershey bar costs no less than $0.50 now (and usually more), it is no stretch to think that silver is undervalued at this time.
A similar analogy can be made using Regular Gasoline and silver, or bread, for that matter.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Silver was at $2.10 an ounce for several years before it was withdrawn from circulation. At the time, a Hershey bar was a nickel.
If a Hershey bar costs no less than $0.50 now (and usually more), it is no stretch to think that silver is undervalued at this time.
A similar analogy can be made using Regular Gasoline and silver, or bread, for that matter. >>
If you expect silver to just keep pace with inflation, then it's not a very good investment at all. Inflation, at 4-6% per year, is hardly a good return. Comparing historical prices of silver to historical prices of irrelevant objects is a fallacy, because I can cite numerous examples that you would laugh at, for instance in 1975 a 25 inch television cost $700, and today it can be had for $150, which means that 25 inch color televisions are undervalued, and sure to rise... or are they? A pentium I cost $4000 in 1995, but today it's a $25 scrap machine at a rummage sale. Is the value surely to rise on those? There are too many variables that figure into the manufacture and sale of any final product that make price comparisons inaccurate measures of valuation. A 2 litre of coca cola in 1980 cost around 99 cents. It still costs around 99 cents today. Gasoline was 99 cents in 1996, but it's $3.00 a gallon now. This does not mean that gasoline is overpriced or that coca cola is underpriced, because you cannot compare the two, they are irrelevent to each other and there's no corrolation to be drawn here.
//////////////////////////////////////////
Silver and gold USED to be "money;" now, they are not.
Folks may wish the metals were money, but wishing does
not make it so.
The only then/now monetary-value comparison that still flys -
a little - is:
"In 1875, a twenty-dollar gold piece would buy you a pretty
good handgun and a pretty decent suit of clothes. In 2007,
the same coin will perform the same function."
Also , most metals, nickel, copper, aluminum etc have gone up 5 times or more in the last few years. Silver/gold gains have not been so great.
Expect silver to rise not necessarily on great demand, just on the fall of the dollar.
<< <i>I suggest you read a little about the Hunt brothers, and not use soley as a source of information a silver investment flyer or doomsday clowns >>
Okay then, THIS doomsday clown will translate.
Some dirty RICH scumbags purchased a legal substance. These dirty rats bought more and more because they could afford it. And then the lousy bounders actually TOOK DELIVERY of the stuff they bought.
Well, things got out of hand and something had to be done so to keep a couple of legal citizens from buying what they could afford, the COMEX was ...."persuaded"... to
CHANGE THE RULES IN THE MIDDLE OF THINGS !!
Story of the dirty rat Hunt brothers.
And so, boys and girls let that be a lesson. Don't ever buy ALL of what you can afford or someone else who doesn't have as much as you do may make you pay dearly.
Moral: Don't use margin or trust a contract.
<< <i>Except the Hunt brothers purchased on margin (LOANS!!!!), not with money they had, and they failed to pay, thus bankrupting themselves and the brokerage house backing their deals. Oops! The Hunt brothers were eugenics bigots hellbent on taking over the world. I'm glad somebody stopped them, although it would have been nice if it wasn't the US government, who are also bigots hellbent on world domination. If the Hunt brothers would have been successful, it would be nothing more than a monopolized silver racket, just like the diamond industry is today. I think people should be free to buy whatever they want and as much of whatever they want to buy, but I'm also free to call a spade a spade, and in this case I'm not a giddy cheerleader for the Hunt Brothers, making heros out of scumbags. It's difficult to find a hero in such a corrupt, shady world, but there's no need to latchkey kid yourselves onto worldclass criminals and evildoers, simply because they were at one time at odds with the government. There is another option: Just roll your eyes at the whole damn lot of them. >>
That statement is factually incorrect on nearly every level.
<< <i>
<< <i>Except the Hunt brothers purchased on margin (LOANS!!!!), not with money they had, and they failed to pay, thus bankrupting themselves and the brokerage house backing their deals. Oops! The Hunt brothers were eugenics bigots hellbent on taking over the world. I'm glad somebody stopped them, although it would have been nice if it wasn't the US government, who are also bigots hellbent on world domination. If the Hunt brothers would have been successful, it would be nothing more than a monopolized silver racket, just like the diamond industry is today. I think people should be free to buy whatever they want and as much of whatever they want to buy, but I'm also free to call a spade a spade, and in this case I'm not a giddy cheerleader for the Hunt Brothers, making heros out of scumbags. It's difficult to find a hero in such a corrupt, shady world, but there's no need to latchkey kid yourselves onto worldclass criminals and evildoers, simply because they were at one time at odds with the government. There is another option: Just roll your eyes at the whole damn lot of them. >>
That statement is factually incorrect on nearly every level. >>
LOL, my opinions are factually incorrect, and the well-known affiliations of the Hunt brothers with racist organizations is factually incorrect, or is it that you are just angry that it doesn't *seem* as though I'm as rosey poopoo huggie doo about the silver market and the wonderful Hunts? I'm just curious.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Except the Hunt brothers purchased on margin (LOANS!!!!), not with money they had, and they failed to pay, thus bankrupting themselves and the brokerage house backing their deals. Oops! The Hunt brothers were eugenics bigots hellbent on taking over the world. I'm glad somebody stopped them, although it would have been nice if it wasn't the US government, who are also bigots hellbent on world domination. If the Hunt brothers would have been successful, it would be nothing more than a monopolized silver racket, just like the diamond industry is today. I think people should be free to buy whatever they want and as much of whatever they want to buy, but I'm also free to call a spade a spade, and in this case I'm not a giddy cheerleader for the Hunt Brothers, making heros out of scumbags. It's difficult to find a hero in such a corrupt, shady world, but there's no need to latchkey kid yourselves onto worldclass criminals and evildoers, simply because they were at one time at odds with the government. There is another option: Just roll your eyes at the whole damn lot of them. >>
That statement is factually incorrect on nearly every level. >>
LOL, my opinions are factually incorrect, and the well-known affiliations of the Hunt brothers with racist organizations is factually incorrect, or is it that you are just angry that it doesn't *seem* as though I'm as rosey poopoo huggie doo about the silver market and the wonderful Hunts? I'm just curious. >>
Your opinion is predicated on falsehoods. The Hunts didn't buy on margin. The needed loans like you need a third eye in the middle of your forehead.
was a part of the basis for a madman bent on mass murder does not ne-
gate everything in it. No doubt, Hitler would have found another "good"
reason to murder millions of his own people.
This is not a discussion about politics nor is it really about the Hunts. For
better or worse what's fair for a person of one set of beliefs is fair for all.
Changing standards for the individual is beyond the ability of we poor mor-
tals anyway.
Say what you will about the accumulation of silver in the '70's, the overlook-
ed fact here seems to be that there is less silver in the world today than there
was then. The simple fact is all the silver in the world would simply disappear
almost overnight if people came to believe it was undervalued. It would dis-
appear simply because there is so very little of it relative the price. There is
less silver in the world than gold and every day the amount of gold goes up
and the amount of silver goes down.
If this weren't enough to be convincing then also consider that the number of
applications and the demand for silver has been increasing geometrically for
thousands of years. This geometric increase is likely to continue so long as
there is silver to feed it or until the psychology which prices it changes.
Since so much silver is a by-product of other mining it's likely that silver price
will have little impact on supply!! Since so little silver is used in most applica-
tions it's unlikely silver price will have much impact on demand!!!.
Perhaps the greatest impediment to silver price increases at the current time
is the great increase in base metal prices is slowing the rate at which 10,000
years of accumulated silver is disappearing.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Except the Hunt brothers purchased on margin (LOANS!!!!), not with money they had, and they failed to pay, thus bankrupting themselves and the brokerage house backing their deals. Oops! The Hunt brothers were eugenics bigots hellbent on taking over the world. I'm glad somebody stopped them, although it would have been nice if it wasn't the US government, who are also bigots hellbent on world domination. If the Hunt brothers would have been successful, it would be nothing more than a monopolized silver racket, just like the diamond industry is today. I think people should be free to buy whatever they want and as much of whatever they want to buy, but I'm also free to call a spade a spade, and in this case I'm not a giddy cheerleader for the Hunt Brothers, making heros out of scumbags. It's difficult to find a hero in such a corrupt, shady world, but there's no need to latchkey kid yourselves onto worldclass criminals and evildoers, simply because they were at one time at odds with the government. There is another option: Just roll your eyes at the whole damn lot of them. >>
That statement is factually incorrect on nearly every level. >>
LOL, my opinions are factually incorrect, and the well-known affiliations of the Hunt brothers with racist organizations is factually incorrect, or is it that you are just angry that it doesn't *seem* as though I'm as rosey poopoo huggie doo about the silver market and the wonderful Hunts? I'm just curious. >>
Your opinion is predicated on falsehoods. The Hunts didn't buy on margin. The needed loans like you need a third eye in the middle of your forehead. >>
That's sad that you believe this. Haven't even read so much as a single article on the Hunt brothers (but you're spouting falsehoods at those who know?)? You couldn't have, if you believe they didn't borrow money to obtain their silver, or that they didn't use their current solver holdings as collateral to purchase additional silver, and it's the entire reason they went belly up, that coupled with their $35 futures contracts they couldn't deliver on when silver tanked to $10. There's a certain comfort in being right that takes precedent over pounding home points and convincing others. I do suggest however that you read up on it, because even if you continue to ignore the realities of the history it's interesting stuff. Pay special attention to the Hunt Brother's "buying partners", namely the Saudis, the 1.1 billion dollar bank loan bailout, the International Metals firm shell, the failed attempts to takeover Sunshine Mine and Texaco, another shell Great Western United, and the attempted manipulation of the Pahlevi family to become a buying partner even before much of this began. It won't be summarized in a 3 paragraph bulleted pamphlet, but there's two awesome books on the subject if you're interested.