Many think that the 2007 Platinum Anniversary Set will be a wonderful opportunity. Is "Dud&qu
ericj96
Posts: 1,657
Many I talk to think the 07 platinum eagle anniversary sets are going to be the quick flip ticket. Some important questions need to be asked:
1) How many will the mint offer? Because "everyone" thinks any anniversary set must be great they will sell well. If they offer 10,000 three coin set thats high for a platinum eagle commem....way high. In fact even a 8,000 limit puts the "mighty" reverse proof at 5th place as a half and not worthy of honorable mention in the entire type set.
2) The companion proof halves will have total sales of 4 coin sets (lately 5k sets+) plus single issue (lately 2K+) and anniversary set mintage (at least 5k+). We are looking at a dog for a plat....melt value for a very long time unless it grades out PCGS-70.
3) The companion 07 MS half (if included) will suffer from the same problem as the proof more than likely and see mintages many times that of the 06 -w with its high 2000s mintage. Again more than likely a melt value dog for the long haul.
So the real question is can a 5,000 to 10,000 mintage Reverse Proof carry itself and two expensive dogs to LONG TERM glorry?
5,000 mintage- likey
8,000 mintage- maybe if the silver and gold RP collectors step in
10,000 - by one for your set and hold onto your 06-ws, 04 proofs and 05 proofs.
Coinage history is loaded with coins everyone expected to be great having relatively high mintages compared to their series siblings falling flat after the initial rush. Guys its the coins that get overlooked or have serious problems/limitations of some sort that become great long term. Point is the next "ride" may or may not show up for the flippers and thats ok with me because a high 10th set sales number will help build the collector base long term and thats what's really needed and where the fun is.
Ericj
1) How many will the mint offer? Because "everyone" thinks any anniversary set must be great they will sell well. If they offer 10,000 three coin set thats high for a platinum eagle commem....way high. In fact even a 8,000 limit puts the "mighty" reverse proof at 5th place as a half and not worthy of honorable mention in the entire type set.
2) The companion proof halves will have total sales of 4 coin sets (lately 5k sets+) plus single issue (lately 2K+) and anniversary set mintage (at least 5k+). We are looking at a dog for a plat....melt value for a very long time unless it grades out PCGS-70.
3) The companion 07 MS half (if included) will suffer from the same problem as the proof more than likely and see mintages many times that of the 06 -w with its high 2000s mintage. Again more than likely a melt value dog for the long haul.
So the real question is can a 5,000 to 10,000 mintage Reverse Proof carry itself and two expensive dogs to LONG TERM glorry?
5,000 mintage- likey
8,000 mintage- maybe if the silver and gold RP collectors step in
10,000 - by one for your set and hold onto your 06-ws, 04 proofs and 05 proofs.
Coinage history is loaded with coins everyone expected to be great having relatively high mintages compared to their series siblings falling flat after the initial rush. Guys its the coins that get overlooked or have serious problems/limitations of some sort that become great long term. Point is the next "ride" may or may not show up for the flippers and thats ok with me because a high 10th set sales number will help build the collector base long term and thats what's really needed and where the fun is.
Ericj
0
Comments
I am going to try for the Legislative.......Executive.......and Judicial....... Unc..1/2 OZ
Is 2007 the "Executive" reverse year.....?.
I am crossing my fingers in hopes of less than 5000
So the 3 coin Plat anniversary sets are going to be 1/2 OZ coins? If that is so then demand will be more, than say 1 OZ coins. I doubt you will see 10K sets, probably 5000 with a limit of 10.
YES
I am crossing my fingers in hopes of less than 5000
MAY BE BUT I WOULD NOT COUNT ON IT.
Eric,
Another thing to keep in mind is that although the Proof and the UNC may be dogs, the Reverse Proof would have to be shared across all the denominations since the Mint's plan is to only provide one denomination for the 10th Anniversary sets. I think that even if the Mint goes up to 8,000 the RP should be a good coin since all current Platinum collectors of all denominations would be forced to acquire the half RP if they want a Reverse Proof Platinum coin as part of their collections. I think that if the mintage is kept below 8,000, the RP coin has a strong chance of behaving like the 2001 Silver Buffalo commem, a coin with a high mintage that carries a premium and defies conventional mintage-price models...
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Ren
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Camelot
Eric
I can see the mint this year as the shout of "Crank 'em out boys.............double shift around the clock". I'm also hearing the melodic strain of 'Oh Canada' playing in the background.
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<< <i>This might be so, but the Mint is a business designed to make money (in more ways that one). Having seen the demand for the past year's anniversary sets, do you really think that they won't capitalize on this opportunity?
I can see the mint this year as the shout of "Crank 'em out boys.............double shift around the clock". I'm also hearing the melodic strain of 'Oh Canada' playing in the background.
The Mint has to be careful to avoid killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. They could crank 'em out and cash in on the current mania for new Mint products, but in the longer term they'll kill demand when the aftermarket stops being excited.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Eric gave me this scan last year. It displays the upcoming designs for 2007 and 2008...
10-15K sets of the $50 coin (1/2 ounce) would cause the Platinum Collector base to expand significantly.
Pricing would put it close to last year's (3) Gold RP Set, yet relative mintage would be a fraction of the Gold set.
I notice how the Mint sold out and thus shut off the 2006 Platinum Proof sets at around 5,500 units? With the 1/10th coin also gone, that makes that series not as bad as first thought.
<< <i>This might be so, but the Mint is a business designed to make money (in more ways that one). Having seen the demand for the past year's anniversary sets, do you really think that they won't capitalize on this opportunity?
I can see the mint this year as the shout of "Crank 'em out boys.............double shift around the clock". I'm also hearing the melodic strain of 'Oh Canada' playing in the background. >>
I would be amazed to see the Mint do anything BUT kill the goose that laid the golden egg.
Reasonably savvy Mint people in charge may recognize how to mint issues in a way that maintains public interest and sustains the long-term growth of the hobby. Bureaucratic forces apparently are at work in all the Mints, though, that instead cause production to pour volumn into scarcity once it is identified.
It literally took act of Congress to hold down the number and mintages of Commems being cranked out a year, thus saving the Commem program. This is not to give too much credit to Congress, though, whose calls for special issues and whose setting the mintages has created the problem far more than has solved it.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
An order limit of one per address might make things interesting.
The reverse of the last two years would awesome on the back of ANY Coin, Gold, Siver or Platinum!
There ought to be a law that says Minting can ONLY be done in the USA!
To "off-shore", 'cointract'(contract) manufacture, sub-out Minting is despicable and Disney World Gift-shop-like, in form.
BTW What US Coins are known to have been produced in Canada?
<< <i>I'm also hearing the melodic strain of 'Oh Canada' playing in the background.
There ought to be a law that says Minting can ONLY be done in the USA!
To "off-shore", 'cointract'(contract) manufacture, sub-out Minting is despicable and Disney World Gift-shop-like, in form.
BTW What US Coins are known to have been produced in Canada? >>
Actually, I was refering to the business model of the Canadian Mint that seems to produce esoteric and strange items of dubious need designed purely to relieve collectors of their money.
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Hence: "killing the goose that laid the golden egg"
edit typo and I was close, eh ?
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
to a nice roast goose dinner. To
heck with the golden eggs.
Camelot
<< <i>Wow!
The reverse of the last two years would awesome on the back of ANY Coin, Gold, Siver or Platinum!
The mint should have put "Legislative" on the 2006 W. It is inconsistant with the 2007 and 2008 plat-commems.
Ren
<< <i>Wow!
The reverse of the last two years would awesome on the back of ANY Coin, Gold, Siver or Platinum!
Notice also that the 2007 has the word "The" in front of USofA. Is that a first on a USA coin?
Ren
<< <i>
<< <i>Wow!
The reverse of the last two years would awesome on the back of ANY Coin, Gold, Siver or Platinum!
Notice also that the 2007 has the word "The" in front of USofA. Is that a first on a USA coin?
Ren >>
No it just reflects the current Executive administration. It will probably be misspelled and use a made up word someplace.
Don't forget the Silver Anniv. set took MONTH's to sell out.
Granted the Gold Anniv. sold out in a day. This leaves the Mint with a decision to make on the Mintage.
I predict a low mintage of about 5000 and a lower maximun order amount. Say about 5 sets per order.
If they are going to do a super low mintage then they have to lower the ordering amount, otherwise about 500 people will own all the sets.
===================
I like the next two designs. This is going to be a sweet set !!
Camelot
I think "Disney World Gift-shop-like" might still stick given the 138+(?) different products due out..........
I just can't imagine the mint meeting all those schedules by the time the end of the year hits.
We are not even two months in and they seem behind.
it is better to be a head, then a behind.
Camelot
Ericj96
<< <i>Just a reminder from another platinum thread (mine). The sure fire way to ensure greatness of the half ounce platinum is not to buy the unc "W" singles and four coin sets. The same goes for the proof versions. This guarantees all three half ouncers are keys...but we need collective restraint.
Ren >>
<< <i>Wow!
The reverse of the last two years would awesome on the back of ANY Coin, Gold, Siver or Platinum!
2007: Why is there an outhouse in front of the eagle and why is it draped with our flag and freedom banner? I know it's suppose to be a shield, but I'm not seeing it...
...gotta go to the restroom, bye, Ren
While this is going on I will go after the 2007 W Unc plat/gold fractionals and maybe the ouncer.
Just my 2 cents
My guess 8,000 coins
Whats yours?
The word is out. The Mint stands to cash in.
My friends, if the mint is smart, they will keep this mintage low…very low. Maybe 3,500-4,000 sets, limited 2 per household. There has already been created a new collector base by the limited edition sets of 2006. Obviously it can not continue to the same degree….after all, the whole purpose was to create more collectors and therefore sell higher margin goods.
Let me give you a true-life example. I encouraged a friend to buy as many 2006 ASE 20th sets as he could, through his friends and family. He ending up buying two 10-packs (which he has kept mint sealed). I encouraged him to buy the plats hard and heavy…he passed. I encouraged him to buy the 2006w golds, and he stepped up for 30+ sets.
In the mean time, I bought quite a several Judas boxes, quite a few plat sets, and a boat-load of 2006-w gold sets…
My point is, this whole buying frenzy was brought about by the limited edition sets. Had it not been for the 20th AGE sets (the ones that first brought my attention to this), I wouldn’t have bought the subsequent product. The ASE, APE, and finally the AGE unc have just added fuel to the fire.
Here’s where the mint makes out on these limited edition sets:
My buddy, upon understanding his financial gain, called me wanting to know what else he should buy. He was all ready and primed to spend tens of thousands of dollars on proof sets, special issues, any thing he could get direct from the mint. He thought he had found the ultimate. Of course, I told him that 95% + of the mint’s products were uninvestable…
Back to point….limited production issues excite the market, create value, and bring new customers to the mint for their high margin products.
FloridaBill
ps. I like the 2008 "What are you doing on my coin? / Hoo me?" eagle/owl Judicial reverse design.
Florida,
No one questions that low mintage builds collector interest. At the same time large populations build collector interst too because common dates are advertisements for the keys. Well Bill how many do you think they could mint and still sell out?
ericj96
<< <i>Even at 10,000 sets they will be profitable to whomever buys them. There are 300,000,000 people in this country, ya think that there may be more than 10,000 interested? >>
No
When many of the proof and regular issues with sub 10K mintages trade around melt, all I can say is that if the the mintage is as I mentioned above with the anniv. set, you'd better call the Ferrari dealership and cancel your order for the car you were going to buy with your profits.
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When the low mintages became more and more apparent and time became too short for the Mint to set up another production run, the market stepped in and gobbled up the available supply, in a big way. That's how a market is SUPPOSED to work. Everybody had the opportunity to buy a hundred 2006-W Plat sets, if they had wanted to, but nobody did. Nothing wrong with that.
I hope the Mint doesn't start offering more limited editions to create instant demand, because tinkering with the free market is never a good idea. If they would leave the program alone, it would develop a market naturally. All of this hype and placing an artificial limit on the mintage can only cause disenchantment down the road, and ultimately, more damage to the market. If you want to buy 10 or 200 sets, you should have the opportunity to do it. It's your risk, after all.
Creating artificial demand by limiting the original mintage sucks. Someone will always get left out after the ordering limit is reached, anyway. The fairest method of distribution is to supply per demand, up to a drop dead date, just like last year. It sure didn't hurt the series to give the market free reign.
There have always been inequities in the ordering process, before the days of online ordering, and ever since, too. The market will set it's own limits. The risk takers will get rewarded, and that's how it should work.
Careful analysis will always have its reward. I was told recently that the Gold and Platinum Eagles were excluded from the 2007 World Series because they want the winners to be the result of careful study and understanding of the coins, and not just bullion speculation.
This is a perfect example - there is still a misconception that these coins are not "real coins," - and not worthy of investigation or study. You hear this almost every time that Platinum is discussed on these boards. Tulips get mentioned in the same vein.
I believe that this is the year all of that will change. There will be many folks who will wonder why they haven't been buying Plats for the past 5 years or so.
Just my opinion.
I knew it would happen.