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Q David Bowers to Modern Collectors: Be Cautious
bidask
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In his column in the recent Coin World ( Dec 25th) QDB asserts: " Yellow flags should be out in the instances in which modern coins ( 'particularly' the 1940's onward are said to be 'rare' if only a few have been certified in grades such as MS 67,68, 69, and 70, but which are common as all get out in the numismatically grades of MS 65 or Proof 65.
He goes on to say that " just about any Lincoln cent from 1950's to date, of which hundreds of millions were struck, is likely to be as common as can be, with untold choice and mint state pieces in existence, although not many have been certified yet as MS 69 or 70.
People forget that pops of certified coins in high grades never decrease, they increase."
He then goes on to say about current products from the U.S. Mint that he sees ...."caution flags waving wildly when such coins are placed in plastic holders marked MS 70 and Proof 70 and offered for prices far above what the Mint charges."
What are your thoughts?
He goes on to say that " just about any Lincoln cent from 1950's to date, of which hundreds of millions were struck, is likely to be as common as can be, with untold choice and mint state pieces in existence, although not many have been certified yet as MS 69 or 70.
People forget that pops of certified coins in high grades never decrease, they increase."
He then goes on to say about current products from the U.S. Mint that he sees ...."caution flags waving wildly when such coins are placed in plastic holders marked MS 70 and Proof 70 and offered for prices far above what the Mint charges."
What are your thoughts?
I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
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Comments
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
<< <i>Good advice !!
I think the man is ahead of all of us.
In layman's terms, he means:
Excercise caution when spending money.
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<< <i>
<< <i> Excercise caution when spending money. >>
Excellent advice in all facets of life!
-YN Currently Collecting & Researching Colonial World Coins, Especially Spanish Coins, With a Great Interest in WWII Militaria.
My Ebay!
That is a key quote. Modern coins with modern mint practices should come from the Mint MS70 or Proof70. That's why they issue special mint and proof sets. They are supposed to be perfectly struck collector editions of coins for circulation.
<< <i>He then goes on to say about current products from the U.S. Mint that he sees ...."caution flags waving wildly when such coins are placed in plastic holders marked MS 70 and Proof 70 and offered for prices far above what the Mint charges."
That is a key quote. Modern coins with modern mint practices should come from the Mint MS70 or Proof70. That's why they issue special mint and proof sets. They are supposed to be perfectly struck collector editions of coins for circulation. >>
I think modern coins with modern mint practices should on average be MS69 and PR69. I don't think the vast majority of coins from the US Mint need to look perfect under a microscope as many of the US Mint's customers simply don't care how the coin looks under high magnification. There are, however, certain people who are much more discerning than the average. Also with the quantities (large mintages) collectors demand for many issues, it may be cost prohibitive to ensure every one is a 70.
However, whether collectors should be willing to pay high premiums for 70s is a different issue.
<< <i>It has been obvious advice many on here have voiced but is better received from QDB. However, I am sure there are naysayers who will even decry QDB as old school with an agenda and this time is different. >>
He's come a long way since saying there was nothing of any value in circulation a dozen
years back. While this new advice may appear sound it is highly misleading. Moderns have
been getting slabbed for years now. Many of these pops have hardly grown in years. It may
well be true that pops will grow for many moderns but it would seem that there should really
be a statute of limitations on this warning. I don't remember one single warning in 1986 or in
1994 that the populations of Morgans would soar as they were submitted for grading. They
have soared, some of these are in the tens of thousands yet collectors still seek them. Eisen-
hower dollar pops tend to be a fraction of Morgan pops and are holding fairly steady yet we
still get a diet of caution. At what point will people start to admit that the new coins are simply
scarcer in nice condition than the older coins?
In Bower's defense he does advise people to cherry pick nice clad in his new book on Washington
quarters.
Perhaps, as is so typical, his remarks would seem much more reasonable if they were more spec-
ific. So many times people just want to speak about "moderns" and the fact always remains that
this term includes a very wide array of coins and they don't have one single thing in common except
that they are newer than classics.
<< <i>He then goes on to say about current products from the U.S. Mint that he sees ...."caution flags waving wildly when such coins are placed in plastic holders marked MS 70 and Proof 70 and offered for prices far above what the Mint charges."
That is a key quote. Modern coins with modern mint practices should come from the Mint MS70 or Proof70. That's why they issue special mint and proof sets. They are supposed to be perfectly struck collector editions of coins for circulation. >>
Perhaps they should all be MS PR-70.
They aren't. Try finding a MS-70 '03 cent or an MS-67 '04-D dime.
In most cases the modern MS coins tend to be more difficult in high grade than the older coins on
both an relative AND an absolute basis.
The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.
Albert Einstein (14 March 1879--18 April 1955)
<< <i>QDB is pretty much saying that the quest for the perfect coin is a colossal waste of money. >>
Perhaps. But many readers are taking it as the search for "modern coins is a colossal waste of time".
Those who do seek moderns mint state coins find they often have to settle for a lower grade than classic collectors.
Assuming he means one shouldn't seek quality in moderns is flying in the face of two generations of coin collecting. How is one supposed to seek gem two cent pieces but circulated and damaged clad coins?
Since I personally prefer CAM/DCAM proof coins (as well as PL/DMPL Morgan Dollars), this would be welcome news.
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
not that his advice is bad, but with his reputation in Numismatics i think the danger of reading too much into his gospel is quite easy. certainly caution should be the watch word with regard to the highest grades in all U.S. coin issues, not just Moderns, but a collector/specialist in Modern issues knows what dates are the winners and losers, what high grade pops are likely to rise and to what degree.
i for one wish that all the collectors/dealers/Numismatists who don't collect in a certain area of the hobby would quit trying to advise everyone about it's dangers. it rings hollow and disingenuous to me and is starting to get vey annoying. enough already!!!
<< <i>Perhaps they should all be MS PR-70.
They aren't. Try finding a MS-70 '03 cent or an MS-67 '04-D dime.
In most cases the modern MS coins tend to be more difficult in high grade than the older coins on
both an relative AND an absolute basis. >>
That's very interesting to me. I didn't realize there were modern coins like the '04-D dime which are rare in MS67+. If so, these coins should get some respect.
<< <i>CladKing: Is it generally true that modern coins are more readily available in high proof grade vs high circulation strike grade?? It is my perception (perhaps incorrect) that one may more readily find affordable proof (PR-67/68 CAM/DCAM) S-Mint strike examples of most modern coins, versus seeking out circulation P and D-Mint strike examples of these same coins.
Since I personally prefer CAM/DCAM proof coins (as well as PL/DMPL Morgan Dollars), this would be welcome news. >>
High grade proof will outnumber high grade uncs from about 5:1 to 150:1 for most circulation issues.
There are a handfull (like '72-S/ '72-D quarters) where the difference will be far smaller.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>QDB has been in coins a LONG time, through many market cycles and fads. I would listen very closely to what he is saying. >>
I've never seen a case where experience gives one the ability to see the future.
And yes, it would be wise to listen to the advice and then critically revue it to see what value it might have to you, personally.
<< <i>As is the case with most who don't really understand the moderns market, his words contain both truth and ignorance.
Russ, NCNE >>
Bingo.
What QDB is saying about moderns is probably the same thing people were saying about classic superb gems fifty years ago.........
What do you think of my cool new sigline?
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>QDB is pretty much saying that the quest for the perfect coin is a colossal waste of money. >>
I don't think that's what he's saying at all.
<< <i>That's very interesting to me. I didn't realize there were modern coins like the '04-D dime which are rare in MS67+. If so, these coins should get some respect. >>
The typical example would be something like a '69-P quarter. Not only is this coin rare in MS-67
but if you like nice pleasing surfaces and a good strike you'll find it pretty tough in MS-65. The
same applies to dozens of coins like '81-S dollars or '74 Ikes; they are not only tough in gem and
superb gem but they are tough in choice and even nice pleasing condition.
Perhaps the toughest of all is the '82-P 25c in nice attractive condition. Figure a pleasing MS-64.
The only reason this coin and nicer are available is that there is little demand. If there were any
demand the supply would simply evaporate because there are exceedingly few of these. Indeed,
there are probably well fewer than 1000 coins with a nice strike in existence. This isn't a search
for perfection just a search for a nice presentable coin.
<< <i>
<< <i>QDB has been in coins a LONG time, through many market cycles and fads. I would listen very closely to what he is saying. >>
I've never seen a case where experience gives one the ability to see the future. >>
History tends to repeat itself.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>QDB has been in coins a LONG time, through many market cycles and fads. I would listen very closely to what he is saying. >>
I've never seen a case where experience gives one the ability to see the future. >>
History tends to repeat itself. >>
Indeed it does. This should prove sufficient information for those of us with
experience in moderns to know that he is wrong in essence if not in fact.
In his own book, "A Guide Book of Washington and State Quarters" (the official
redbook), he states (and I quote) (in reference to the '82-P) "Choice and gem
mint state coins are plentiful. In his defense it's still an excellent book and one
should not judge it on the basis of a single sentence but those of us who collect
these coins know full well that this is hardly the case.
And just as experience teaches that history repeats itself and that '82-P quarters
are tough, we know full well that it is the things which seem plentiful and that are
ignored that become highly sought by collectors. It is the knowledge that these
coins can't be located even in lower grades to search that we know there won't
be the kinds of explosions in pops that so many are looking for.
So, yes, here comes history again. Is it ever going to stop?
<< <i>Now if I said that....... >>
Well, you didn't say it BUT there is still an opportunity to redeem yourself Laura.
Go ahead and issue a warning about the prices being paid for some of the " monster rainbow toned " Coins out there.
Be a little Bolder than the Q-Man.
Some are super common and mostly all high grade. In fact many of them the only difference between MS69/70 or PF69/70 is the price. Those are a total waste of money. QDB is correct on those.
On some of the tougher condition rarities, as CladKing points out, go find some. Those who specialize know all the tough coins.
I would also point out the there are many traditional coins that millions were made, and I see top end coins going for huge premiums. Why does QDB logic not apply to them???
When is the last show you went to that you couldn't find a nice 81-S Morgan at virtually every table. Pretty, saleable, but not rare.
Could it be the QBD wants greater demand for the types of coins he and his firm sell? The mint is taking tons of money from traditional coins, and hte after market in high grade moderns even more. Maybe that's the real issue!!!
Just a few thoughts!
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
In other words buy the 65 or 66 for ALOT cheaper money.
I think he would agree that this view applies to classics too.
It is just more prevalent in moderns because of the mintage figures.
He also clearly suggests that if you enjoy collecting moderns, then the best place IS the MINT to buy from and again avoid the hype of high grade ( 68, 69 , 70 ) slabs of modern minted coins.
That said, clearly a market can be created out of anything including slabbed 69 and 70 moderns.
But in terms of value, I for one agree with his advice.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I think QDB is saying that the value of purchasing a MS 68, 69, or 70 of anything slabbed that is considered modern is not a wise buy when there could be literally millions of the same date in 65 or 66 and more that overtime can surface as higher grades.
In other words buy the 65 or 66 for ALOT cheaper money.
I think he would agree that this view applies to classics too.
It is just more prevalent in moderns because of the mintage figures.
He also clearly suggests that if you enjoy collecting moderns, then the best place IS the MINT to buy from and again avoid the hype of high grade ( 68, 69 , 70 ) slabs of modern minted coins.
That said, clearly a market can be created out of anything including slabbed 69 and 70 moderns.
But in terms of value, I for one agree with his advice. >>
There's very little you can buy from the mint that isn't dated 2006.
Just because a coin grades very high doesn't mean that it can't be purchased safely.
People should be aware of what they are buying. If you can't tell the difference between grades
then shop for price. If you like the coins and are learning about them then you are doing it right.
<< <i>I would never buy an issue where 90% of the time I cannot tell the difference between a 69 and a 70 yet a 69 goes for $25 and a 70 goes for $2,500.00. To me, that is moderns in a nutshell. >>
Have you ever tried? I know schoolchildren who can tell 69's from 70's with more regularity than experienced collectors can seperate 65 from 66 morgans.
<< <i>
<< <i>I would never buy an issue where 90% of the time I cannot tell the difference between a 69 and a 70 yet a 69 goes for $25 and a 70 goes for $2,500.00. To me, that is moderns in a nutshell. >>
Have you ever tried? I know schoolchildren who can tell 69's from 70's with more regularity than experienced collectors can seperate 65 from 66 morgans. >>
When they grow up, those schoolchildren have a future with the TPG's.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Clad is right, as he is much more informed than most (all?) of us, on the circulation struck clad issues. They were produced generally with low quality assurance and hardly set aside in large numbers. I agree that they can, as condition rarities, represent significant future potential. That said, the mintages of US coins after 1950 are so ridiculously high that believing they are the classic rarities to be is nuts. Yes, there will be some rare issues. I like the 1964 SMS, the missing S proofs, the occasional DDO or DDR. Error coins will likely be the bigger thing as they tend to be unique, distinctive, and the modern Mint's analogue of the old Mint's die variety in terms of rarity.
The point begun about Morgan dollars is a good one. In general, Morgans are closer to moderns than other classic series as they were produced in great numbers, largely for no good reason, and set aside uncirculated for the most part. However, there are the melts, the incredible die varieties and die states associated with feverish production with 19th century technology, history, and a century of storage conditions that produced approaches to them that are well suited to the series. (Peace dollars too.) VAMs and prooflikes are the jewels of the series. I would caution buyers to avoi the 81-S, 84-CC, 96-P, ... in MS60-MS63 just as much as the ultramoderns crazy priced grades. Some things just are not rare or rare enough to justify speculation. Neither IMHO represent sound long term investments.
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<< <i>the comment about schoolchildren isn't very bright. Even the TPG's disagree on a final grade at times and have to come to a compromise. >>
Your opinion is noted but your couter seems empty. My point is that the easiest two grades to discern are 69 vs 70. Either you see an imperfection or you don't. And my point about schoolchildren is factual. I didn't make it up.
--Jerry
QDB is right generally on some parts, wrong on others.
Part of his preaching could be said for old crap, too.
RR
<< <i>
<< <i>As is the case with most who don't really understand the moderns market, his words contain both truth and ignorance.
Russ, NCNE >>
Bingo. >>
My favorite coin series to collect is Frankies... toned mint state and dcam proofs. I don't doubt there are a bajillion Frankies out there, and there's definitely some changes in the MS side of the series. However... There is no question the most common proof dcam Frankies are the '56, '62 and '63. I'm looking at the October 2003 and October 2006 PCGS pop reports. In this 36 month time frame in pr68dcam the '56 pop (type 2) went from 325 to 340, the '62 went from 123 to 151 and the '63 went from 176 to 188. Those are hardly startling increases, especially when one considers that some of those numbers must be phantom given the financial incentive to get a coin to go from pr68dcam to pr69dcam. In fact, what I found startling about those numbers is how low the increases are in a 36 month timespan... 15, 28, and 12 respectively. BTW the respective numerical increase in pr69dcam was 1, 3 and zero.
U.S. Type Set
<< <i>
<< <i>I would never buy an issue where 90% of the time I cannot tell the difference between a 69 and a 70 yet a 69 goes for $25 and a 70 goes for $2,500.00. To me, that is moderns in a nutshell. >>
Have you ever tried? I know schoolchildren who can tell 69's from 70's with more regularity than experienced collectors can seperate 65 from 66 morgans. >>
Then NGC needs to hire more school children because 90% of the moderns that they grade 70 would never make it into a PCGS 70 holder.
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Wondercoin
ALL ABOARD!!!!!!
I like modern mint stuff. My daughter likes modern mint stuff. We like modern mint stuff.
Why does it seem like everyone wants me to NOT like modern mint stuff? Perhaps the money flows away from the "real" coin dealers. Just my guess.
John
Never view my other linked pages. They aren't coin related.
Dragon, if that's what he's hopes to precipitate, he'd best buy all the TPG's.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Riothamus
-Jonathan Livingston Seagull-
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Upon comparing the two ( MS65 - $165.00 ) ( MS66 - $595.00 ) I could see very little difference except for the number on the slab, and of course the price paid. If anything, the MS66 was most unattractive because it was the most lifeless and it had a faint fingerprint on the obverse.
Returning the MS66 cost me $16.00 for registered shipping and a 3% restocking fee ( $17.85 ) but I was happy to take the loss.
Sometimes it makes you wonder why all the classics dealers go to such lengths to bash modern coins. It's a little like the pot calling the kettle black.