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Q David Bowers to Modern Collectors: Be Cautious

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    notwilightnotwilight Posts: 12,864 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>I would never buy an issue where 90% of the time I cannot tell the difference between a 69 and a 70 yet a 69 goes for $25 and a 70 goes for $2,500.00. To me, that is moderns in a nutshell. >>

    Have you ever tried? I know schoolchildren who can tell 69's from 70's with more regularity than experienced collectors can seperate 65 from 66 morgans. >>

    Then NGC needs to hire more school children because 90% of the moderns that they grade 70 would never make it into a PCGS 70 holder. >>



    Well, yes. But that's a different discussion. --Jerry
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    keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Then NGC needs to hire more school children because 90% of the moderns that they grade 70 would never make it into a PCGS 70 holder.

    this only bolsters the opinion held by many that PCGS currently sets the standard for coin grading, the standard by which many of us judge all other grading companies and all slabbed coins. i would think you'd be more interested in what YOU thought of the coin and why you're of the opinion that NGC is wrong and PCGS is right on those 90%.

    it's called bias and it interferes with sound judgement. if you're looking at an NGC holdered "70" anything with this frame of mind you should just set the coin down and walk away.
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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think all he's saying is be careful when you pay a lot of extra money for one extra grading point.

    it's one thing when one pays multiples for an MS67, when there are only a couple dozen mint states and maybe hundreds of the coin extant in any condition.

    its quite another thing when one pays multiples for an MS67, and there are thousands of 66s, 65s, and 64s registered, and literally millions of coins in total.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    mr1931Smr1931S Posts: 7,072 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << QDB is pretty much saying that the quest for the perfect coin is a colossal waste of money. >>
    "I don't think that's what he's saying at all."

    The questors of the perfect coin could be classic or modern or combinations of both collector groups in varying degrees, no matter. My opinion is that QDB is saying, put another way, is that the savvy collector should do his/her homework and use some common sense before buying that "superb" specimen of a coin being offered for really big bucks.

    “I have all the money I want, and there is a better use I can make of my time. We work to become, not to acquire.” — Elbert Hubbard

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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I don't know much about the market for moderns, but isn't it possible that the Pops are so low because so few find it economically feasible to risk a ton of submissions coming back as disappointments, particularly when the price differences are so great for the difference between a single grding point? I mean, these are "modern" coins that don't get a lot of recognition, so I can see why a condition rarity would be desirable. But my money is on the classics. That's just me I guess.

    Riothamus >>



    No. It works the other way around. Back when these coins had no value a few
    years ago, they didn't get sent in because they had no value and there wasn't
    enough interest. Now that there are lots of people who are seeking the coins
    and building collections they'll send in anything that's worth the grading fee. Since
    the interest level is high there are even a few being sent in that aren't worth the
    grading fee. The corner dealer may not send in moderns but there are others who
    do.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I think all he's saying is be careful when you pay a lot of extra money for one extra grading point.

    it's one thing when one pays multiples for an MS67, when there are only a couple dozen mint states and maybe hundreds of the coin extant in any condition.

    its quite another thing when one pays multiples for an MS67, and there are thousands of 66s, 65s, and 64s registered, and literally millions of coins in total. >>



    This would be sound advice but look at indian cents. The multiple here are often higher
    than what you pay in moderns for a 1 point difference. Yet he is said to have been speaking
    of "moderns".
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    << <i>it's called bias and it interferes with sound judgement. if you're looking at an NGC holdered "70" anything with this frame of mind you should just set the coin down and walk away. >>



    I always do image
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    As a person in the field of numismatics and years of experience one would look to Mr. Bowers with knowledge and wisdom as to what to expect in our hobby.It's not modern bashing ..it's just the same old "Generic" story that every well known dealer or person of interst has to say about moderns.....Why......?????/
    Because..to keep the faithfull fully indulged in the classics...Hey..!!! That's not a bad thing.!!We are aware that they're are millions of unsold classic coins.I just don't have an interest in them.I am also aware the mint keeps putting out near perfect coins.
    I also do not fall into the must have ms70 or pr70..!!
    There are also many more untouched ..unseen mint and proof sets waiting in the wings......JMO.......
    ......Larry........image
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    bidaskbidask Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "I’m not advocating buying super expensive finest known’s or top-pops, as often the premium involved in these coins is very high. Though they are extremely nice, many times they are fully priced and then some, leaving very little upside. When top pops are not pricey and the grade is accurate they make a good buy. Often the coins that represent the best long term play are those coins that are choice for the grade one or two numerical points down from the top or in the top of the circulated classifications. Often the actual difference in these coins and the highest grades is virtually nil. A really choice 64 or 65 coin is often not that different than a 66 or 67. Likewise a nice 50 or 55 coin is not necessarily inferior to a 60-61-62 coin if the circulated example is really choice.
    To succeed as a coin collector you must realize this, and purchase the coins that represent good value, without overpaying for the highest technical grade. It’s really not that hard and you just have to exercise some common sense. Education is the key here and like everything in life it pays to do your homework."

    A quote from HLRC newsletter dated 12/16/06, seems similar to what QDB said. Notice he emphasizes coins that represent ' good value'.

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




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    TrimeTrime Posts: 1,863 ✭✭✭
    Buy what you want but make your expectations realistic.
    Not all rare coins are valuable in the market-place but they have much greater chance of being or becoming so than common coins.
    Modern coins are fun but Top Pop are IMHO not the best long term investment. It is not hard to understand that there are an incredible # of modern coins in Unc and proof condition in SD Boxes and chests of colectors. I have lots going back to the 50s that have never been slabbed. or even reviewed from the standpoint of top POP. These coins will eventually come to the market and the POP #s will expand. They are for me part of my collections not my asset plan.
    On reflection maybe I should look and sell before they get buried by new coins.
    My passion are the coins with longer history. A 170 year old coin with low mintage in superior quality is something special and will always be so.
    Trime
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Buy what you want but make your expectations realistic.
    Not all rare coins are valuable in the market-place but they have much greater chance of being or becoming so than common coins.
    Modern coins are fun but Top Pop are IMHO not the best long term investment. It is not hard to understand that there are an incredible # of modern coins in Unc and proof condition in SD Boxes and chests of colectors. I have lots going back to the 50s that have never been slabbed. or even reviewed from the standpoint of top POP. These coins will eventually come to the market and the POP #s will expand. They are for me part of my collections not my asset plan.
    On reflection maybe I should look and sell before they get buried by new coins.
    My passion are the coins with longer history. A 170 year old coin with low mintage in superior quality is something special and will always be so. >>




    Bet I got more than you do. image

    But I've never suggested anyone should go out and buy as many modern gems as he can afford so that he
    gets rich. I've never suggested the the roads to wealth was paved with pop tops either.

    These coins are fun to collect and most are tougher than everyone believed ten years ago. Indeed, most are
    tougher than most people think now. If you want to "invest" in moderns then it's highly predictable what coins
    you'll have in your portfolio because they will be the coins that are readily available for the main part. This is
    exactly the same process that occurs for people who want to "invest" in classics.

    I can also guess the sorts of coins that a knowledgeable collector like Trime might set aside. But I also know
    full well what Trime didn't set aside because he found them just as difficult to locate as everyone else. It's also
    a simple fact that some coins were not set aside iin large numbers by anyone. If they were set aside there
    would be some available but there aren't any available. This applies to many many coins but you can use var-
    ieties as a "marker" to see what happens to the typical coin. They make excellent samples because they get
    released in bunches. Yet many of the clad varieties are essentially unknown in unc. If they appear in mint sets
    even rarely then they are common but otherwise looking for gems is a waste of time. The coins weren't saved.
    They don't appear at yard sales, at flea markets, at the shop or on the bourse.

    I don't have a safety deposit box crammed with original rolls of '69 quarters. People don't have double row boxes
    full of nice choice '82-P dimes. There are also many low mintage and other rare moderns that aren't going to be
    coming out of safety deposit boxes because they were never put in. It doesn't matter how many people desire
    these coins because there are finite numbers just as there are with classics.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    don't have a safety deposit box crammed with original rolls of '69 quarters. People don't have double row boxes
    full of nice choice '82-P dimes.


    Well, they'll have to make do with one of the millions of circulated ones, then.

    at least they're easier to find than a damned 1824 quarter that I've been looking for for a decade, and all i want is a decent problem free VG or Fine and cant fine even one

    however, I do have a coffee can full of change waiting for the coinstar and it has several 69 quarters and 82 p dimes in it

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Baley: This is a valid point but of little consolation for those assembling unc sets of moderns.



    << <i>

    however, I do have a coffee can full of change waiting for the coinstar and it has several 69 quarters and 82 p dimes in it >>



    Wanna bet? image

    You'd be surprised how tough the '69 quarter has gotten in change. Most are ugly and in low
    grade as well. In a coffee can of mixed change it's unlikely there would be even one.

    It's not difficult to find a very nice attractive '82-P dime though. You'll probably look at dozens of
    rolls before you find one with a nice strike too, but they're out there.

    You absolutely will not find a '69 quarter like this. Nor can you buy one very easily since people saved
    very few in circulated condition also.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    LongacreLongacre Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
    I have not read the article yet, so I cannot comment directly, other than to say that QDB has been around the block a few times, and probably knows what he is talking about.
    Always took candy from strangers
    Didn't wanna get me no trade
    Never want to be like papa
    Working for the boss every night and day
    --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Here's a roll of BU 1969 quarters I was able to locate in less than a minute of looking

    he's also god '69-Ds and lots of other better date clad Wash rolls

    when I get home I'll look through that coffee can and pull a few..

    for now, here's my best ones

    image

    I might have paid a buck apiece; at that price I love them! any higher and I'm like, "no thanks"

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Here's a roll of BU 1969 quarters I was able to locate in less than a minute of looking

    he's also god '69-Ds and lots of other better date clad Wash rolls

    when I get home I'll look through that coffee can and pull a few..

    for now, here's my best ones

    image

    I might have paid a buck apiece; at that price I love them! any higher and I'm like, "no thanks" >>




    Wayne Herdon (from the link) is a member here and is rapidly becoming one of the
    largest traders of modern BU rolls. I'm sure he would tell you that finding most of
    the original BU clad rolls is almost impossible. In all likelyhood this roll being offered
    is the result of cutting up mint sets. It's not impossible it's an original roll but in 34
    years of collecting clad quarters I've never seen even a single original roll of this date.

    I did see original rolls of these back in 1969 and they were simply awful.

    The '69 in your set is actually a nicer example but even the most casual observer
    would understand that many collectors would prefer a nicer one than this.

    Just pull one from the can and I'll be a little impressed. If it's not a lot of trouble, post
    a picture as well. See what you can find for any '68 to '73 quarters except for the '70-D,
    '71-D, '72-D and '73-D. It's not that any of these are rare but they are mixed in with
    billions of other coins and a few decades of being ignored has not been kind to them.

    The most difficult to find is the '68-D or '71-P but the '69 is toughest in nice condition.

    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    I must defer to your expertise cladking. Just not my cup of tea. Where does one go to purchase high grade unciculated moderns anyway? Maybe I'll do a birth year set someday.

    Riothamus
    "To fly as fast as thought, to anywhere that is, you must begin by knowing that you have already arrived."
    -Jonathan Livingston Seagull-
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    Well, I will admit that I love modern coins, but I spend my waking hours with classic coins. I just don't understand the logic of paying the mega bucks for a coin that was just minted. Especially since more and more are being graded that high every day. My example would be the new Rev Proof 70 2 weeks ago today PCGS pop 177, today 261 a 47% increase, what is it gonna look like in two more weeks or now that the last shipments from the mint were sent out? I love modern, but can't pull the trigger on that kind of money.
    Life member of the SSDC
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 30,162 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> Where does one go to purchase high grade unciculated moderns anyway? Maybe I'll do a birth year set someday.

    Riothamus >>




    It depends on many factors. Collectors who don't need the highest grades are well advised to
    check mint sets and BU rolls if they can be found. If you're in a hurry or don't want to do the work
    then the best bet is to buy slabbed coins that are below the highest grades. Raw coins are avail-
    able for $1 up to about $40 and the slabs are in the $10 to $40 range mostly. If you do insist on
    very high grades there are a few you might be able to find raw but this is an arduous process and
    can be costly if time and effort are include. The best bet is to buy most of the coins but this is where
    you take the advice to be cautious; go slowly and learn about the coins before laying down your mon-
    ey.

    There are lots of modern coins and they don't all have the same characteristics of the mint state clad.
    They are all collectible and some are very low risk and others aren't. The point of the hobby though
    is to have fun and just as with classics, your enjoyment can be marred if you learn that you've been
    paying too much. Go slow, don't invest, and have fun. It's hard to go wrong with any collectible if
    you do this.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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    keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    if you want to learn a bit about what goes into finding nice coins for a brth year set, send a PM to clackamas and inquire about his 1968 Mint Set. i think he looked through close to 2000 Mint Sets to find the coins he's settled on and he's still looking for upgrades.
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    keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    wow, i just went over to the Registry Forum and clackamas has a thread about his set that's riding atop page one. being the Registry Forum it'll be there for about a week so there's no need to hurry!!
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,374 ✭✭✭✭✭
    People forget that pops of certified coins in high grades never decrease, they increase."

    I think QDB must have missed the Contursi article when he was turning in his 13,000 certs to the Boy's Club of America. The certified pops of $4 Stellas and Hi Reliefs took a significant plunge.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    Thanks for the info cladking, keets. And what a coincidence! Clackamas and I have the same birthyear.

    Riothamus
    "To fly as fast as thought, to anywhere that is, you must begin by knowing that you have already arrived."
    -Jonathan Livingston Seagull-
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    mr1931Smr1931S Posts: 7,072 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Education is the key here and like everything in life it pays to do your homework." Bowers

    There is nothing wrong with a collector who wants a 1969 D quarter in as "superb" a condition as possible. And, there is nothing wrong with a collector who wants a classic (my opinion) 1932 D quarter that will make a technically stunning number.

    "I have never and will never find a 1932 D quarter in change." mr1874




    image

    “I have all the money I want, and there is a better use I can make of my time. We work to become, not to acquire.” — Elbert Hubbard

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    This response just released by Q. David Bowers:

    Link to Article
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    CoxeCoxe Posts: 11,139
    Man......Fletcher. LOL
    Select Rarities -- DMPLs and VAMs
    NSDR - Life Member
    SSDC - Life Member
    ANA - Pay As I Go Member
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    You liked that?

    image

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