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Which Modern Commemerative is a Good Long Term Value?
Ronyahski
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If you had to pick one modern commemerative to hold onto for 30 years soley for price appreciation, which one would you squirrel away, and why?
Some refer to overgraded slabs as Coffins. I like to think of them as Happy Coins.
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Among the gold proofs, the '96 Smithsonian has a mintage of 8,948, I believe making it by far the lowest of the proofs. While the obverse is okay, maybe a bit better than some, the reverse of that coin is quite attractive in proof.
Among MS gold commems, while the mintages of the Jackie Robinson (5,174) and Library of Congress (6,683) are very low, their prices have already shot up. As a result, they're pretty expensive to enter now. However, I think the Wright Brother's First Flight is a beautiful coin, particularly the reverse. I believe it's mintage is aound the same at 6,761. That's my personal bet. I picked one up in 70 last week. By the way, there's a dutch auction I noted tonight on eBay in which several PCGS graded 70s are being sold as a Best Offer.
Among the silvers: I think many people recognize that the 2005 Marine Corps will always be desireable well outside the numismatic community. Also, 30 Years from now will be about 8 years shy of the 100th anniversary of the Battle of Iwo Jima which took place Feb 15, 1945. My guess is there'd be some meaninful media attention to commemorate it, raising the interest of people interested in obtaining the coin.
Any others?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>If you had to pick one modern commemerative to hold onto for 30 years soley for price appreciation, which one would you squirrel away, and why? >>
None, really. If I was looking for price appreciation, I'd invest in the stock market, or buy some bonds.
I think any modern gold commem with a mintage of less than 10,000 has good price appreciation potential. However, I suspect the best is yet to come: the First Lady golds. I think these will be hugely unpopular, given the arcane subject matter and high price. The first few will be good sellers, but really, who the fark cares about Mrs Fillmore or Mrs Van Buren? Does one care enough to spend a half-ounce of gold on these hags? These coins are going to make $5 Jackies seem plentiful. Once collectors start needing these to complete their collections (and of course, registry sets), watch the prices rise.
The trick is to pick "sleepers". Hard to do when many of the neatest coins have already seen 100% increases in past 12-18 months.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Remember, coins like the Library of Congress MS $10 have ALREADY DOUBLED in the past 12-18 months. A good time to pick them was certainly last year and a few of the strongest modern coin "analysts" I know (for lack of a better word) already did just that and received some of the greatest "returns" YTD in the coin industry, classic or modern. Ditto for the JR MS Gold.
The trick is to pick "sleepers". Hard to do when many of the neatest coins have already seen 100% increases in past 12-18 months.
Wondercoin >>
Would a good "sleeper" have been the gold and silver buffaloes? I've wanted to add a silver buffalo to my collection but the price has held me back.
Millertime
Complete Dime Set
IMHO, I view the Silver Buffalos more as "gimmick coins" - their high mintages take them out of the league of coins like JR's, LOC's and CVC's, or even High Jumps or Wheelchairs. But, that does not mean that early next year a new project won't need a 1000 silver Buffalos and prices won't rise again.
Wondercoin
<< <i>
<< <i>Remember, coins like the Library of Congress MS $10 have ALREADY DOUBLED in the past 12-18 months. A good time to pick them was certainly last year and a few of the strongest modern coin "analysts" I know (for lack of a better word) already did just that and received some of the greatest "returns" YTD in the coin industry, classic or modern. Ditto for the JR MS Gold.
The trick is to pick "sleepers". Hard to do when many of the neatest coins have already seen 100% increases in past 12-18 months.
Wondercoin >>
Would a good "sleeper" have been the gold and silver buffaloes? I've wanted to add a silver buffalo to my collection but the price has held me back1
Millertime >>
I'm no expert, but "sleeper" doesn't fit the 2001 buff commem, IMO. It has a fairly high mintage, in both uncirc and proof (in fact it is an anomaly in that pf and uncirc mintages are close-unlike say cap visitor ctr pf mintage 4X that of uncirc). It has appreciated nicely over 6 years-but there are many buffalo themed coins around now ( gold buff 1 oz coins, yellowstone, 01 buff, bison 5c, KS and ND state 25c-disregarding the buffalo skull on the MT 25c
Contrast that with the First flight $10. For starters, there are only three $10 modern commems-the LA olympic-with hundreds of thousands available in proof, 75k minted in uncirc. The bimetallic 00 smithsonian is unique, and low mintage esp in uncirc-but has had a fairly big runup and trades for twice combined melt or more. The FF has a mintage of 10k in uncirc, 21k in pf -THE lowest mintage in pf of any modern proof commem, and one of the lowest in uncirc-yet one can pick up the coin for less than $400 in uncirc, and maybe $350 in proof. Not much downside when it contains $300 in gold content at todays prices.
Don
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Millertime
Complete Dime Set
With the Jackie Robinson, again in MS you're looking at some big bucks (big for me at least). I own a proof version I picked up a number of years ago. If you're holding something like that for 30 years, 2037, your only about a decade shy of the 100th anniversary celbrating his breaking into baseball. If you like that thinking, but have limitations on spending, try to pick up one of the sets that were housed in a beautiful wood box, that included Robinson's 1952 Topps Card with a special U.S. Treasury Seal, 50th anniversary patch, and pin if I recall correctly. With the sports carryover, there will always be good demand for each of these components.
The question I think about is are the MS Library and Robinson going to be like the 1995-W Silver 10th Anniversary Eagle, or do they max out here? A ton of collectors and dealers scoffed when the '95 eagle went to $1000. There were ton's of offers that went ignored at $1,200. At two thousand dealers would joke at shows that they'd sell short the coin if they could, as it was headed for a fall. But there's a big difference between the '95 Eagle and commemoratives. The number of people who collect them is far greater than collect gold commemoratives. So for me, I personally think you'll see coins like the First Flight and the Smithsonian proof move up more in price on a percentage basis than either of the two MSs.
Meanwhile, as a result of the 100% great moves on those coins, consider that coins of similar mintage are now "relative" bargains IMHO. For example, I believe the 2004 $50 Proof Platinum has a mintage roughly 100 coins LESS than the MS JR, but currently sells for around 60% of the JR price. The 2004 $25 Plat has a mintage I believe roughly just a mere 19 coins higher than the JR and sells for around 40% of the JR level now. Again, all of these coins I am discussing rank among the very lowest mintage modern coins ever produced by the US Mint (since 1915) - they are all neat coins even today. The gold Commems were simply that much neater last year at half the price, if you know what I mean.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Marine? >>
...raah!
It's got my vote!
Parker
Also the MS dollar commems and ASEs are the only affordable US silver dollar series that people of average means can COMPLETE in gem grades..........
Eric
PS: What makes the coin great is it has not had a big run yet...............
<< <i>any that you can buy close to melt >>
I vote the same. On occasion the common gold commems trade for slightly below melt.
It is the next lowest mintage to the 1996 D Paralympic Eric mentioned.
From what I hear most were sent to Iceland and are legal tender over there.
I do not understand why PCGS does not have them listed under Commemorative either!!!
1995W Unc. Specimen $5 Gold Civil War
1996W Unc Specimen $5 Gold Smithsonian
The 2002 Olympic Gold and the First Flight coins of 2003
Wait for everyone to tell you a certain coin is worth DUMPING and the next thing you know , it doubles in value.
Others were mentioned (bi metal , Jackie Robinson). I always look for low mintage coins as my guide. The fewer there are , the higher the value down the road.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>The LOC and JR have seen 100% price jumps in the past 12-18 months. I really like those coins in the long run, don't get me wrong. But, it would be a stretch to assume the coins will double again in the next 12 months - not impossible, just a stretch.
Wondercoin >>
You keep giving 12-18 month outlooks, is that really your idea of "long term value?"
Being a "market maker" for these things, smoe of us would appreciate your response to the 30 year question!
thanks
z
<< <i> I always look for low mintage coins as my guide. The fewer there are , the higher the value down the road. >>
I fully agree with your choices. The lower the mintages combined with the higher the popularity of a subject seems to get the highest appreciation over the long run from what I can tell.
However, sometimes it takes market a long, long time to recognize some of the differences, especially if the sector falls into disfavor. During the 70s and 80s, gold commemoratives were virtually overlooked by collectors. With Saints being the heaviest weight, everyone was crazy for them--the higher the grades the better. You could pick up $1 & half eagle gold pieces with low mintages pretty cheaply, at that point, the number of people chasing gold commems were few and far between. After the bust, in the late 80s, You could pick up MS McKinleys for a bit more than a couple hundered bucks and Grants (which were more popular) for a bit more than that.
This past cycle, Indian Eagles and Half Eagles just aren't quitting their ascent, and gold commems are more popular than I've ever known amoung collectors. They're easy series to collect because there are relatively few issues, even amoung the moderns.
I personally am very concerned that PCGS doesn't consider the upcoming $10 'First Spouse' .9999 pure bullion series along with modern gold commemoratives, as I believe it will take a lot of present collectors working on registry sets out of the game.
On the other hand, these coins should have miniscule mintages as we get past Martha, Abigale & Dolly, to those only known only by history scholars. The question is 30 years from now, might these be the real winners, or despite their low mintages, be considered somewhere at melt?
<< <i>I do not understand why PCGS does not have them listed under Commemorative either!!! >>
Because they're not US coins? When PCGS posts an Icelandic list, they'll be there.
<< <i>However, I suspect the best is yet to come: the First Lady golds. I think these will be hugely unpopular, given the arcane subject matter and high price. The first few will be good sellers, but really, who the fark cares about Mrs Fillmore or Mrs Van Buren? Does one care enough to spend a half-ounce of gold on these hags? These coins are going to make $5 Jackies seem plentiful. Once collectors start needing these to complete their collections (and of course, registry sets), watch the prices rise. >>
I think that is a recipe for them to be perennially cheap relative to their low mintages. Look at Liberty quarter eagles, if you want to see this phenomenon in action. Lots of them are ridiculously hard to find -- but who is looking? Next to nobody tries to build a complete set of these by date/mint. Similarly, how many people are really going to want a set of first lady gold pieces? Those things are going to be duds the day they get mailed from the mint, and they will be duds until the end of time.
<< <i> Those things are going to be duds the day they get mailed from the mint, and they will be duds until the end of time. >>
There's some things that even low mintages can't make desirable.
<< <i>Remember the American Arts and Culture medals that are 1/2 gold and selling for bullion or less. These will be the same even though there legal tender. I'd rather have the American Arts and Culture series. >>
I've been meaning to put together a collection of these for some time now. I fear I waited too long -- gold was half the price it is now when I started looking
<< <i>Yes the Icelandic is a Commorative coin...It was in the two coin set issued by the mint in 2000. >>
Yes, but it's an Icelandic commemorative coin -- not a US one. Just because it was sold by the US Mint does not make it a US Coin.
<< <i>I think that is a recipe for them to be perennially cheap relative to their low mintages. Look at Liberty quarter eagles, if you want to see this phenomenon in action. Lots of them are ridiculously hard to find -- but who is looking? Next to nobody tries to build a complete set of these by date/mint. >>
The problem with a coin like the Liberty quarter eagle is that they all look the same. If I want one for my collection, it doesn't matter which date I get. And I can find hundreds of any condition at any given time.
With the Hag-Tenners™, each one is a different design. You'll have type collectors, commem collectors, and gold collectors all chasing them.
Best long term modern commem thirty years from now? Even though these have been run WAY up, I would still say the 2000-W LOC 10$ bimetal and the 1996-W Smithson $5 gold in uncirculated.