Stocks and gold have been awesome investments the past year. But why is gold always moving WITH stocks? I don't get it. Gold is moving up fast again. how high are you willing to take the risk to hold for? (I'm talking those with BIG futures contracts - not those that own a generic $20 or two, and think they are some big investor in gold...).
Stocks and gold have been awesome investments the past year
Look again. For a true comparison you need to evaluate stocks and gold against the Euro. In that comparison stocks are nearly flat this year due to dollar devaluation (dollar down 10%). And if you factor in the dollar falling 40% over the past 5 years, those great stock gains evaporate as the dollars you get cashed out into, buy far less. Basically your breaking even at best. And when the US dollar index is 50 or less, the Dow might be up to 20,000, and it will be a wash. But the stock gurus will celebrate the "strength" in the market. Gold and gold share advances aren't as impressive compared to the USDX as well, but they are far more impressive than stocks over the past several years.
Every time I try google I go back to ask.com. Who needs 400k useless hits??
I'd short the goog and buy gold.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
Here's a link to EWI that shows some interesting graphs. EWI claims that the Dow when corrected to the gold price has actually fallen by 10% since 1929, that is, the entire gain in the DOW since 1929 is solely from inflation. No real gains. Interesting stuff. If corrected to the gold price, they show a Dow in the 300's. So all that bunk you hear about gold being a poor long term investment doesn't seem to be in line with the EWI analysis. Go argue with the Elliot Wave group if you think their is some shenanigans here. I doubt their numbers are massaged like the BLS's. I don't even follow EW theory except for some of the TA. Note that EW theory had predicted $200 gold by now...and there's no sign of it. Still, enjoy the graphs.
Goog is not expensive. It is selling at about 40 times 2007 earnings. It still has great growth potential. There will be a time when its growth rate slows, but its PE is not high IMO compared to the dot com era of the late 90's . It may have had a recent run in the last couple years but gold has been a LOUSY investment over the long term. Take a look at any long term chart.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>[L=Elliot Wave International ]Here's a link to EWI that shows some interesting graphs. EWI claims that the Dow when corrected to the gold price has actually fallen by 10% since 1929, that is, the entire gain in the DOW since 1929 is solely from inflation. >>
What does the gold shart look like when corrected for the stock market?
This is a completely meaningless concept. If the Dow's growth since the 30's was entirely due to the inflation, it would mean that we would still be living in the 30's standards.
"The greatest productive force is human selfishness." Robert A. Heinlein
I suspect Google will triple within 3-5 years. Gold will always stagnate between $400-$600 or so since it will be manipulated by US and world economies. This is because if gold gets too high, economies will fail (around $1000/oz is big problems for the whole world).
Gold or any precious medal is not a good long-term investment. It never has been. It is better for the short term investor.
Remember those funds I posted a while back - well its the end of the year and I am quite happy! Old CF Thread
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>Well, one year later and we have:
GOOG: $484.81
Gold: $648.00
Looks like an ounce of gold beat a share of Google handily... >>
And the forum prognosticators called it. >>
Dumb luck.
Note that both are about 20% up yoy. Gold has been a better investment than GOOG if bought last year for nearly every month of last year:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=GOOG&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=gld
Robert A. Heinlein
For the Googel investors, or the gold investors?
<< <i>I predict a $150 drop in Google in 1 year. They are way over priced. Short Google and Buy Gold. Gold will be at $625 in 1 year. >>
Hmm... Not quite
<< <i>Google is a pump and dump. Yahoo is the real winner long term. Buy Yahoo. >>
Hmm... again. GOOG up 20%, YHOO down 30%+. Ouch.
<< <i>Gold is certainly headed to over $1000 and probably over $1500 just to help balance the fiat economies of the world. >>
Maybe, but very slowly then.
<< <i>My Google prediction: Close to its issue price by the end of the year. >>
Oooops...
<< <i>google is "worth" less than a $100 per share-if that. Stock market touts should be burned at the stake for pushing this stock over $400.
If Google goes on a buying binge with their OP stock.....look out.
The insiders have been unloading as fast as they can. >>
Darn, the market still hasn't realized this, huh?
Robert A. Heinlein
Look again. For a true comparison you need to evaluate stocks and gold against the Euro. In that comparison stocks are nearly flat this year due to dollar devaluation (dollar down 10%). And if you factor in the dollar falling 40% over the past 5 years, those great stock gains evaporate as the dollars you get cashed out into, buy far less.
Basically your breaking even at best. And when the US dollar index is 50 or less, the Dow might be up to 20,000, and it will be a wash.
But the stock gurus will celebrate the "strength" in the market.
Gold and gold share advances aren't as impressive compared to the USDX as well, but they are far more impressive than stocks over the past several years.
roadrunner
I'd short the goog and buy gold.
GOOG is due for some retracement, a lot of the high flyers are.
Ive moved into Oil and Natural gas stocks; inventory is tighter, Opec meets in December and will vote for price hikes and production cuts.
long calls in APA & XOM
"La Vostra Nonna Ha Faccia Del Fungo"
Here's a link to EWI that shows some interesting graphs. EWI claims that the Dow when corrected to the gold price has actually fallen by 10% since 1929, that is, the entire gain in the DOW since 1929 is solely from inflation. No real gains. Interesting stuff. If corrected to the gold price, they show a Dow in the 300's. So all that bunk you hear about gold being a poor long term investment doesn't seem to be in line with the EWI analysis. Go argue with the Elliot Wave group if you think their is some shenanigans here.
I doubt their numbers are massaged like the BLS's. I don't even follow EW theory except for some of the TA. Note that EW theory had predicted $200 gold by now...and there's no sign of it. Still, enjoy the graphs.
roadrunner
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
why the current price is minescule.
Camelot
<< <i>[L=Elliot Wave International ]Here's a link to EWI that shows some interesting graphs. EWI claims that the Dow when corrected to the gold price has actually fallen by 10% since 1929, that is, the entire gain in the DOW since 1929 is solely from inflation. >>
What does the gold shart look like when corrected for the stock market?
This is a completely meaningless concept. If the Dow's growth since the 30's was entirely due to the inflation, it would mean that we would still be living in the 30's standards.
Robert A. Heinlein
Gold or any precious medal is not a good long-term investment. It never has been. It is better for the short term investor.
Remember those funds I posted a while back - well its the end of the year and I am quite happy! Old CF Thread
FUNDA 14.71%
FUNDB 16.49%
FUNDC 35.52%
FUNDD 35.8%
BTW - My real estate fund is currently returning 36%. (FRESX)
BBTW: I also own Google.
Make your own decisions and don't follow the crowd over the cliff.
Dave