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20th Anniv. Reverse Proof $1 PCGS PR70 just sold for
Rodius
Posts: 857 ✭
Rodius
Posts: 857 ✭
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<< <i>Just amazing. Wonder where they will top out? >>
You mean this isn't the top?
–John Adams, 1826
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
Russ, NCNE >>
IS RIGHT!!!
CONGRATS SEGOJA!
Well of to find the winner of the giveaway!
Over 1000 views and 150+ trackers.
Most ever for an E-Bay auction for me!
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
Box of 20
Box of 20
<< <i>So each unopened box of 10 has about a 30% chance of a PR70. That price cannot last for long! >>
I believe the odds stated in the earlier post is actually 3%. If all 250,000 sets get graded by PCGS (which won't happen), you're looking at 7500 pr70s.
I know a lot of you think this cool, but if people keep paying prices like this, there is going to be a lot of financial blood on the floor when folks come to their senses.
<< <i>I believe the odds stated in the earlier post is actually 3%. If all 250,000 sets get graded by PCGS (which won't happen), you're looking at 7500 pr70s. >>
PCGS will control the number PR-70s that are out there. They won't be able to sustain auction results like this, but they will control to supply in an effort to suppor the market.
<< <i>I stand by my statement as made. 24 of 736 is a little over 3% of the coins. 10 Sets produces 30% chance of a PR70 among the 10 sets. >>
Actually the odds are 26.3 % if 3% are graded 70 in a box of 10.
<< <i>PCGS will control the number PR-70s that are out there. They won't be able to sustain auction results like this, but they will control to supply in an effort to suppor the market. >>
Huh? I guess you haven't been paying much attention lately. Hint: Check the Gold Buffalo pops. If they're "controlling" it, they're doing a pretty lousy job.
Russ, NCNE
Box of 20
So far in PCGS is concerned, they have a lot of control over the high grade modern coin market because NGC "don't get much respect" there. Therefore it is to PCGS' advantage to keep the populations down if they can. Overall the Buffalo gold coins I've seen have uniformally high grade (mostly PR-69s), which is an indicator that at least for this year, the mint has handled them carefully, except for the planchet washing problems.
<< <i>Slopppy handiling of the way the sets are packaged with coins found loose in the packaging. If enough customers complain, maybe the mint will crack down on the outsourcing shipping company when they start shipping again. I doubt it though. >>
All the shipping company needs to do is push the holders into the slots in the cases. They had done it for years, but this year for some reason they decided to ship the coins lose.
<< <i>I don't much attention at all to the population reports >>
Then it might be a good idea to avoid making assertions about PCGS "controlling" those pops.
Russ, NCNE
"Holy Cow", but I thought that it was appropo to have "santa" in the same context as the final bid price reaches that amout...an early Christmas.
"Keep your malarkey filter in good operating order" -Walter Breen
<< <i>I stand by my statement as made. 24 of 736 is a little over 3% of the coins. 10 Sets produces 30% chance of a PR70 among the 10 sets. >>
Not a math major eh? So if you sent in 100 sets you'd have a 300% chance?
Also you're spreading the proabability over the other coins which have different rates. The MS, for example, have NO 70s.
--Jerry
Reverse 70
Box of 20
<< <i>You mean out of every 10 cases (100 sets) there is a chance of 3 being graded Pr70 on the Reverse Proof. Out of any case (10 sets) the chance would be 1/3 of 1 percent. Thats for unopeneded sets if you want the current labeling. Thats a tough number. >>
No, math is wrong. Out of every 10 sets you have a 1/3 chace of getting ONE rev proof 70. Out of every 100 sets you should expect 3 rev pr 70s. --jerry
–John Adams, 1826
You guys should realize third party grading is a combination of art, science and politics. As one advances from the worst grading services to the best grading services politics plays a smaller role, but even for the best of them, it never goes away.
If you want a stone cold example just look at the certification grading history of the King of Siam Proof set. One service graded it, and then the other got to grade it with each coin coming in a one point higher. Did each coin in the set suddenly get better, or was it politics? If you think the coins got better, then you will also believe that that is hope that pop singer Madonna has a chance of becoming the first born again virgin.
As for POP-1 coins, they hold very little interest for me beyond being an academic exercise. If it’s an early POP-1 coin, which could get my attention, I can’t afford it. If it’s a modern POP-1 coin that I might be able to afford if I wanted to give up buying something I REALLY desire, I don’t want it.
POP-1 coins are for registry people. The rest of us will wallow in mediocrity.
Thus you have a reasonable chance of getting 3 PR-70 reverse
Silver eagles, out of each 100 sets. While there may be many more Reverse
Proof -70 coins, time limitations and late deliveries will significantly reduce the
number of available first strike 70 Reverse Proofs.
Bears have to know math. Cause we have to keep track of our
jelly donuts.
Camelot
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
Famous for what - I'd rather not say.
<< <i>The winner has the option of purchasing one each of the remaining coins in the set (Regular Proof graded PF69DCAM with First Strike and 20th Anniversary Label and the Uncircualted Silver Eagle graded MS68 with First Strike and 20th Anniversary Label), and I'll throw in the original box for free. >>
At the price paid - the bidder should get all the items mentioned for "free".
<< <i>Most of the individual coins and sets selling for these really high prices seem to be "first strike" coins. Is that the reason for the insanity or is it the coins in MS/PR 70 that is responsible for the prices? How do you think the non- "first strike" coins/sets will do? >>
First Strike does seem to bring more money. But NGC is not doing FS and their 70 - sets are doing nicely. Plus a NGC 70 does not = a PCGS 70. So I think a PCGS 70 will still bring some $$$.
FS or not, the price will drop.
24 of 736 is 3.2609 %.
Let's call it 3.25% chance of any rev proof coin being submitted being a proof 70. The means on average, for every 10 sets (1 Rev PR per set) submitted, there will be .325 PR70s graded. 100 sets will produce, on average, 3.25 PR70 coins.
<< <i>The higher math is killing me! No, not a math major. An engineer!
24 of 736 is 3.2609 %.
Let's call it 3.25% chance of any rev proof coin being submitted being a proof 70. The means on average, for every 10 sets (1 Rev PR per set) submitted, there will be .325 PR70s graded. 100 sets will produce, on average, 3.25 PR70 coins. >>
Yes, that math is correct. You can always multiply 3.2% times the total number of rev proof coins submitted to get the number of expected proofs. But to calculate the probability of geting one or more proof fom a large number of coins requires binomial probability, the formula's I no longer remember but you can google them pretty easily. --Jerry
Out of those how many will be graded?
Out of those graded, how many by PCGS?
Out of those graded by PCGS, how many will have the FS designation?
Whether we like it or not, the FS designation will command the highest premium.
<< <i>3.25% of 250,000 = 8,125
Out of those how many will be graded?
Out of those graded, how many by PCGS?
Out of those graded by PCGS, how many will have the FS designation?
Whether we like it or not, the FS designation will command the highest premium. >>
The guy who bought mine told me his opinion is that the final pop of the FS Rev Proof 70 will be 75 or so. That's how he came up with his bid. But don't tell anybody these may be valuable in the future--they'll never believe you.
--Jerry