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Are numismatists a disappearing breed?
I think it is pretty safe to say that there are not nearly as many young collectors as there were 30 years ago. What will our hobby be like 30 years from now? Will our hobby begin to slowly fade away and become a thing of the past? As fewer and fewer coins are being used in circulation, will there be less and less new people coming into the hobby? Are we a disappearing breed?
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I wrote a letter to the editor of Coin World in 1984 (I was 15) regarding this very topic. They published it. I stated 2 reasons for the absence of youth in numismatics; the new computer craze and bad dealers.
Frankly, it doesn't matter. Within 30 years, 90% of the valuable coins will be traded exclusively between numismatic hedge funds. Serious collectors will be out of the picture, more or less. Of course we'll still have people of all ages collecting odds and ends from their pocket change. That is, if coins have not been completely replaced by micropayments systems.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
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<< <i> I think it is pretty safe to say that there are not nearly as many young collectors as there were 30 years ago. What will our hobby be like 30 years from now? Will our hobby begin to slowly fade away and become a thing of the past? As fewer and fewer coins are being used in circulation, will there be less and less new people coming into the hobby? Are we a disappearing breed?
Frankly, it doesn't matter. Within 30 years, 90% of the valuable coins will be traded exclusively between numismatic hedge funds. Serious collectors will be out of the picture, more or less. Of course we'll still have people of all ages collecting odds and ends from their pocket change. That is, if coins have not been completely replaced by micropayments systems. >>
That's a pretty grim prediction.
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-Amanda
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Dennis
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In addition to seeing things in circulation, I think people like collecting sets, not just buy things in one shot, e.g. buying a couple 2006 Franklin commemoratives from the mint and that's the end of it. I've noticed that lunar fans from China are going up in price and getting scarce. Each one is legal tender in China. You collect all 12, 1 per year and they form a circle with the zodiac animals on one side and a Great Wall mural on the other. As this has gotten popular the mintages have gone up dramatically so not everyone will be able to create a full set in the end. Okay, this might be kind of gimicky but they seem to be hot sellers and collected by people other than traditional US numismatists. The Presidents $1 series may be of interest in this category but I think this category has a smaller outreach than the general circulation category.
Another thing that may help is making more commemoratives out of ounces of silver. Lots of people who don't understand coins do understand silver and gold. If you can give 1 ounce of silver as a gift which also happens to be a legal tender commemorative coin that may eventually have some value above its's bullion value, it may generate more interest.
Modern, widely-circulated, US coins are pretty boring and haven't changed in a very long time (aside from the state quarters and recent nickels). It probably wouldn't cross the average person's mind that coins would be fun to collect except for these new varieties.
Beyond that, there are some young numismatists which was discussed on another forum recently.
I think the US Mint is moving in the right direction and generating grass roots interest. I also think growing the YN base is correlated to the US Mint generating interesting, circulating, coins. It will be interesting to see what the US coin landscape looks like 10 years from now.
<< <i>% of the valuable coins will be traded exclusively between numismatic hedge funds. Serious collectors will be out of the picture, more or less. >>
How can this make sense? The collector is the end user, without whom rare coins really aren't worth anything. I think there is a kind of game theory equation at work, and a certain percentage of coins will need to be available to collectors -- not funds -- for their value to be maintained. The funds could more or less precipitate the collapse of the market by buying and holding too much.
I can't agree with the comment that 30 years from now 90% of the valuable coins will be traded in numismatic hedge funds. If there is no collector support, where will these coins get their value? Saying that it will only be hedge funds suffers from the same flaw as the "investor" and "collector" coin bifrocated market. When the investors stop trading with each other, the game is over, and the market will crash.
Coin collecting will still be around, but it will again be the "hobby of kings."
The little guy or even a rich collector can still compete at public auction today just as he could 25, 50, or 100 years ago. I don't see this changing in the next 30 years. Auctions and dealers will still exist and if you want to buy from them, you can. Hedge funds owe no allegience to anyone except themselves. There will always be a spot for dealers and serious collectors as long as you have the $$. If it ever gets to that point then you won't be able to buy your own stocks or even a car or a gallon of milk, some hedge fund will be doing that for you.
Stamps were dead in the 1980's so coins are already 20 to 25 years behind them and no crash yet. There's something about a piece of metal (esp gold and silver) vs a piece of gummed paper.
roadrunner
In fact, in most of the U.S. subcategories, this is also true, from collecting early coins by die variety, through the middle series and branch mints,
and on through collecting and studying this year's mint output, whether it be SQ varieties or perfect 70 bullion pieces.
And here come the presidential dollars which everyone will save and not spend, spawning another wave of collectors who will have money after they finish high school, college, and get jobs.
It will take time for a percentage of the SQ and PD kids to mature and gain interest in collecting the older series, and even longer before a percentage of THOSE become affluent enough to afford the truly rare coins
Fortunately, the mint makes millions of new coins each year and the "mass media" public enjoys "condition rarities" and special designations, making for exciting profits and cool "coins I've never seen before" like the buffalos and reverse proofs
Unfortunately, some who collect exclusively these first few low pops, where the underlying supply of perfect coins is enormous, could get discouraged, if they paid peak prices, when the populations grow and they lose value, hopefully we will not lose too many of those collectors, perhaps those high prices charged by the TV coin shows get people started who move on to paying fairer prices.
Anyway, I think truly special coins will always be desireable regardless the market cycle, and I think there will always be a large population of people who like and study coins, and also that people will use coins in commerce for decades yet; people always look at their change and certain types of people will always want to own and study interesting coins.
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<< <i>And for better or worse the profit motive has driven more people toward the "I'm in it for the money" point of view instead of studying and collectors sets and series. Just look at a lot of the posts here. There are few comments that say, "I can't wait to get my new ---- from the mint!" The usual comment is, "Do you think I'll make a killing?" >>
TPGs and eBay have created a lottery type situation and people like winning (it's a lot harder to win in Powerball). The prices paid for some of these First Strike 70s seem kind of crazy to me but that's what a lot of modern collecting seems to be about. As has been mentioned the First Strike programs augment the conditional rarity effect a lot.
<< <i>
<< <i>And for better or worse the profit motive has driven more people toward the "I'm in it for the money" point of view instead of studying and collectors sets and series. Just look at a lot of the posts here. There are few comments that say, "I can't wait to get my new ---- from the mint!" The usual comment is, "Do you think I'll make a killing?" >>
TPGs and eBay have created a lottery type situation. People like winning. The prices paid for some of these First Strike 70s is kind of crazy to me but that's what modern collecting seems to be about. TPGs create the conditional rarities and thus interest. >>
I agree with the above and question how much of the current "collecting" activity truly relates to "numismatics".
In coins, there are no "end users". We buy coins, for whatever reason. Then we sell them, or our heirs do. It's the exact same way with stocks and bonds. The only difference is that, with stocks and bonds, you don't get to fondle your assets. I mean, er, specifically, the stocks and bonds.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Computers did not kill the hobby. It brought many of us back to it. The coin dealers around here are a joke.
And guess what Modern Crap™ won't be so modern anymore in thirty years.
Online banking and bill payment programs don't keep me from getting Proof & Mint sets each year.
And just maybe the powers that are (ie. Congress) will finally quit making dollar bills some time in the next thirty years.
There IS hope though. At a show in Michigan (rather large) there was a group of, sorry if I offend anyone, Boy Scout looking kids. They couldn't have been even teenagers yet. What were they doing you might ask? Going from table to table looking at coins with their loupes. One was even talking about "hairlines" on the coin. Talk about impressed. Even found one boy digging through a world coin box. He had a stack of about 10 coins and from the looks of it, he was very picky about his stuff (I was searching the box next to him, he had a good eye).
So there is at least a small portion of younger people out there actively collecting and learning. A few of my buddies are kind of getting into it but they have this thing with "other" mints in the US. Their eyes get really wide when they see a MS65 Merc (isn't much to some of you but to me it is).
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<< <i>The collector is the end user, without whom rare coins really aren't worth anything.
In coins, there are no "end users". We buy coins, for whatever reason. Then we sell them, or our heirs do. It's the exact same way with stocks and bonds. The only difference is that, with stocks and bonds, you don't get to fondle your assets. I mean, er, specifically, the stocks and bonds.
Stocks and bonds pay dividends and interest. Their economic fundamentals are based upon the finanical health of the companies that issued them. Companies can generate income from a wide variety of economic activities. Coins only pay dividends though collector interest and pride of ownership. Without that coins are only worth their face or melt value.
The oinly dividends that coins pay, except when they are sold, come in the enjoyment they provide to collectors. If those who own them only view coins are a commodity that they can sell to the next "bigger fool," the supply of fools will run out.
Like I said, if collectors don't support the coin market, the coin market will crash. It's matter of supply and demand.
easily progress from rank amateur to seasoned pro quite quickly (look at some of
the young folk here), but this hardly means all will. Even very serious collectors
might not turn up at coin shows with the regularity of those who have been build-
ing collections and relationships for many decades.
There is another generation coming along and this wasn't such a sure thing a decade ago.
<< <i> I think it is pretty safe to say that there are not nearly as many young collectors as there were 30 years ago. What will our hobby be like 30 years from now? Will our hobby begin to slowly fade away and become a thing of the past? As fewer and fewer coins are being used in circulation, will there be less and less new people coming into the hobby? Are we a disappearing breed?
Frankly, it doesn't matter. Within 30 years, 90% of the valuable coins will be traded exclusively between numismatic hedge funds. Serious collectors will be out of the picture, more or less. Of course we'll still have people of all ages collecting odds and ends from their pocket change. That is, if coins have not been completely replaced by micropayments systems. >>
Thanks for raining on my coin parade.... lol.
<< <i> I think it is pretty safe to say that there are not nearly as many young collectors as there were 30 years ago. What will our hobby be like 30 years from now? Will our hobby begin to slowly fade away and become a thing of the past? As fewer and fewer coins are being used in circulation, will there be less and less new people coming into the hobby? Are we a disappearing breed?
Frankly, it doesn't matter. Within 30 years, 90% of the valuable coins will be traded exclusively between numismatic hedge funds. Serious collectors will be out of the picture, more or less. Of course we'll still have people of all ages collecting odds and ends from their pocket change. That is, if coins have not been completely replaced by micropayments systems. >>
I can't believe that about hedge funds. How many numismatic hedge funds are there? I mean legitimate ones, not phony schemes designed to scam their investors. We all know how one of the biggest ones, the Ohio fund ended up. Same deal with one of the most famous ones, the Merrill Lynch coin fund. Seems to me that a court date and legal proceedings are par for the course, not the exception for numismatic investment funds. I will say it again, my opinion is that with a track record like coin investment funds have had, only people that want to lose their most of their money and get involved in court proceedings would invest in such things. The temptation for the principals to play fast and loose is too great for the average person often leaving the investors high and dry holding an empty bag.
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I think that it will always be an active hobby.
<< <i>As fewer and fewer coins are being used in circulation, will there be less and less new people coming into the hobby? >>
The mint seems to make record number of coins for circulation each year. I agree it is strange - I use credit cards for almost everything - but coins must still be being used.
Coin prices are still heading up - another good omen for the future.
I think the reports of the death of the hobby is still premature.
The weak link in our society is : A whole community of negative people. After the world is rid of the doomsday thinkers, things will be fine. There is a rainbow after the storm.
I am sure someone has a better numismatic rainbow :
Amanda, put me on your list for buyers when the book is published.
Joe
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<< <i>I wholeheartedly disagree with any notion that Wall Street will ever play that significant of a role in coins. If a product cannot be commoditized (i.e. every share of Microsoft is the same or every one ounce of gold is one ounce of gold), it takes too much time and effort in trading the product. >>
Unfortunately, what grading services have done is they HAVE commoditized the market. Grading services (mainly PCGS and NGC) have made it so a sight unseen coin will always trade at a bare minimum (bluesheet)
What's changed is that when I was a young numismatist in the early 60s, it was at least theoritically possible to find rare coins in circulation. We did find a lot of older coins in circulation or in bank bags. Maybe a few semi-keys and if we were extremely lucky a key date of somekind. That possibility is gone forever. Every semi-key coin or better now has to be purchased.
However, I disagree with the concept that there are fewer young numismatists. The state quarter program and other mint issues have introduced an entire new generation of youngsters to collecting.
How the current young numismatists transition from 'US Mint' customers to collectors of rare coins is the ultimate question.
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Perhaps the idea of cultivating collectors at a young age is something that is overrated in numismatics? I doubt many art, antique, autograph, etc collectors get their start as kids. Maybe young numismatists are more of the exception because coins, at least pocket change, is so accesible, but that doesn't mean that people won't continue to join and leave the market as they get older. Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think people that start collecting at a young age are quite likely to leave the hobby because of the inability to acquire(purchase) anything rare, while older more mature and certainly more financially secure people are perhaps more likely to stick with it. Of course this is not to say that young numismatists should not be encouraged, but it may be that they are not a good pulse on the life of the hobby.
<< <i>
What's changed is that when I was a young numismatist in the early 60s, it was at least theoritically possible to find rare coins in circulation. We did find a lot of older coins in circulation or in bank bags. Maybe a few semi-keys and if we were extremely lucky a key date of somekind. That possibility is gone forever. Every semi-key coin or better now has to be purchased.
>>
This isn't even really true if you define "rare coins" as old US coins with a large numismatic
premium. Indeed, exactly the opposite is true. There were "no" rare in circulation from the
mid-'50's to the mid-'60's. Circulating coins had each been culled dozens of times my collect-
ors intent on filling their penny boards and other collections. Even by 1945 the '09-S VDB was
a virtual impossibility according to data published in The Numismatist at that time. This was be-
fore the era that the coins were thoroughly checked!! In the late-'50's it was far more improb-
able to find anything of great interest. Sure, there might be an occassional old horde being re-
leased to circulation so it was theoretically possible.
Now days some of the rarest US coins are found in circulation. There are not only recognized
rarities with great value but there are also many scarcities with a real chance of being found and
many unrecognized scarcities. This has happened largely because of the belief for two generations
that there is nothing of interest in change allowing everything to simply accumulate while it's being
ignored.
<< <i>I don't rememer there being many coin collectors when I was in high school. I wanted to start a school club but nobody else had any interest, so I had to latch on to the stamp club (which only existed because of one of our teacher's interest and promotion). And yet nowadays and it seems there are some people my age (26) and slightly older interested in coins.
Perhaps the idea of cultivating collectors at a young age is something that is overrated in numismatics? I doubt many art, antique, autograph, etc collectors get their start as kids. Maybe young numismatists are more of the exception because coins, at least pocket change, is so accesible, but that doesn't mean that people won't continue to join and leave the market as they get older. Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think people that start collecting at a young age are quite likely to leave the hobby because of the inability to acquire(purchase) anything rare, while older more mature and certainly more financially secure people are perhaps more likely to stick with it. Of course this is not to say that young numismatists should not be encouraged, but it may be that they are not a good pulse on the life of the hobby. >>
Most collectors start as children and drop the hobby as teens. They will then refind collecting as adults.
Obviously there are many individuals who don't fit this mold.
<< <i>What's changed is that when I was a young numismatist in the early 60s, it was at least theoritically possible to find rare coins in circulation. >>
What about Wisconsin high leaf/low leaf quarters?
Minnesota double die tree varieties?
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<< <i> Are numismatists a disappearing breed? >>
yes
K S
Apparently so.
<< <i>-- "Are numismatists a disappearing breed?" --
Apparently so. >>
-Amanda
I'm a YN working on a type set!
My Buffalo Nickel Website Home of the Quirky Buffaloes Collection!
Proud member of the CUFYNA
As for the internet, I can absolutely say I would NOT have come back to collecting coins if it were not for Al Gore. I mean, the internet. And I am 33.