Funny thing about the market for MS 70 modens...

MrEureka · October 15, 2006 10:50AM

I think that if more people could see the difference between a 69 and a 70, the spread would (counterintuitively) narrow, as people would realize how little it is that costs so much. But most people can't see the difference in the coins, so to them it's just a numbers game, which makes any value possible.

Your thoughts, please.

Edited just to see if the new thingy below works...

mercurynut · October 15, 2006 10:54AM

I absolutely agree! I can't tell the difference unless I use a loop.

Leiana · October 15, 2006 11:03AM

According to my Grading Guide, a 70 is flawless and as struck. A 69 can have one or two tiny marks, none in prime focal areas.

That's not a really big difference, but I guess it matters to some people.

To me, there is a far more appreciable difference between, say, a 63, a 64 and a 65.

-Amanda

robertpr · October 15, 2006 11:09AM

<< I absolutely agree! I can't tell the difference unless I use a loop. >>

I don't know about a loop, but a loupe tends to be helpful to me.

Bikingnut · October 15, 2006 11:13AM

most people can't see the difference in the coins, so to them it's just a numbers game, which makes any value possible.

I have to agree with that thought. If a grader is spending 5 to 10 seconds per coin, how can they possibly tell the difference between a 69 and 70? Of course, i guess that's why I'm not a grader.

Dennis

fcloud · October 15, 2006 11:54AM

I can't see the difference with a microscope! I think it is just a game, some winners and some losers for the same coin. I have yet to find any flaws on PR69 state quarters. So what is the difference. Just the thickness of the wallet needed to buy the holder--I mean coin

I have one MS68 Mercury Dime. I bought to just to have one graded that high. I think that is another coin where you are buying a holder and not the coin. Many of my 67 coins look better.

cladking · October 15, 2006 11:57AM

I don't understand why people would pay for a difference they can't see
so don't really have an opinion on this. I suppose there is a sort of per-
verse logic in the assertion though.

IGWT · October 15, 2006 12:08PM

-- "But most people can't see the difference in the coins, so to them it's just a numbers game, which makes any value possible." --

I'm not sure I accept the premise of the question. People are smart enough to figure out that there's very little difference if they can't see any. It's not ignorance of the difference (or lack of visible difference) that creates the premium for the higher grade.

Myqqy · October 15, 2006 12:09PM

I don't understand why people would pay for a difference they can't see

This is the smartest thing I've read all day......

Barry · October 15, 2006 12:13PM

What if PCGS loosens up a little bit and starts grading like NGC? What will that $15K cent be worth then?

notwilight · October 15, 2006 12:32PM

I learned the approximate difference in looking at various Gold Buffalos. Indeed, it isn't much to the naked eye. But the difference between an MS64 and and MS65 Missouri Commemorative isn't much either. But look at the price difference. Contrary to popular belief, the moderns are not treated significantly different than other coins. People are used to seeing the difference between 64 and 65 or even 66 and 68 but 69 vs 70 seems foreign.

That said, I would argue that the difference between 69 and 70 is the most important difference since it is approaching perfection--just as the difference between a 47 or a 61 Petrus and perhaps a 98, subtle but very, very valuable.

There will always be people willing to pay for perfection or if you don't want to call any coin perfect--the best approximation available.

--Jerry

roadrunner · October 15, 2006 12:39PM

that's the catch-all: "approaching perfection." In essence MS70 is not perfection but merely another grade better than MS69. If you compare varying MS70's some will be better than others. Eventually something has to give to go higher.

I've yet to see a perfect Mint State coin and not sure if I ever will.
Give anyone 10 minutes and 15X magnification and faults will surface. Just because you can't find flaws with your eye or with 5X magnification doesn't mean the coin is flawless, just "approaching" flawless or "almost flawless." Sort of like "almost uncirculated."
There is a huge difference in all the mint state grades from MS63 to MS67 if you consider average coins for each grade. Above MS67 you are starting to talk about one less minor mark or blemish per point.

roadrunner

HighRelief · October 15, 2006 12:48PM

The only difference I found between my PR70 and PR69 PCGS Gold Buffalo coins was the strike. Neither coin had one single tick as far as I could see. The eye and cheek lines are more pronounced on the PR70 and it did not take a loop to see this.

cladking · October 15, 2006 12:49PM

<< The only difference I found between my PR70 and PR69 PCGS Gold Buffalo coins was the strike. Neither coin had one single tick as far as I could see. The eye and cheek lines are more pronounced on the PR70 and it did not take a loop to see this. >>

There is a real difference and all the 70's I've seen are struck by new dies.

Gemini · October 15, 2006 1:18PM

I'll just stick to my old classic coins where absolute condition is not a priority and I don't have to get involved playing the crazy high end bragging rights numbers game.

Coinosaurus · October 15, 2006 1:47PM

People can't see the difference in diamonds either and still pay ridiculous prices for them. The concept, and let's just be a little raw here, is that the more you pay the more you love your partner (at least that's the diamond companies want you to believe). So the higher carat count or clarity or whatever doesn't really matter. What matters is how much you pay. I think the same thing is going on with these MS70 coins - they're somehow more desirable because someone paid a lot for them.

I'm not sure I agree with Andy, although the premise is interesting. But there are too many Morgans in 63/64/65 range where one point makes all the difference, and all we are talking about is one more mark or less on Liberty's cheek which to a neophyte would be trivial. At the 69/70 level, you are paying for the plastic and not the coin, but as long as the services don't degrade the plastic, I contend that this market will endure.

Shamika · October 15, 2006 1:53PM

Perhaps we should go back to the old 60, 63, 65, 67, and 70 only grades for MS.

airplanenut · October 15, 2006 2:07PM

I find it funny that I've seen more NGC 70s than PCGS by far, yet I've found flaws on far more PCGS 70s... with my naked eye...

michael · October 15, 2006 2:27PM

I think the same thing is going on with these MS70 coins - they're somehow more desirable because someone paid a lot for them.

WoodenJefferson · October 15, 2006 2:39PM

I think that if more people could see the difference between a 69 and a 70, the spread would (counterintuitively) narrow, as people would realize how little it is that costs so much.

Good point, however (when I was job searching I heard this word numerous times) it looks like the questions and answers imply that only the top tier TPG are to be taken into account. There are so many other "encapsulation" services who have a mind set that if the coin comes directly from the mint it's a 70. Hire a bunch of ppl to crack out proof sets, sharpen the scissors and cut up mint sets, print labels that have MS-70/PR-70, pop them into a snap together holder and call themselves grading services. Only the naive fall for this but they number in the tens of thousands.

Until the hobby can overcome these inadequacies, there will always be a cloud of suspicion between 69/70

Myqqy · October 15, 2006 3:41PM

I find mr eureka's video graphic to be somewhat disturbing......

Coxe · October 15, 2006 4:58PM

<< I think that if more people could see the difference between a 69 and a 70, the spread would (counterintuitively) narrow, as people would realize how little it is that costs so much. But most people can't see the difference in the coins, so to them it's just a numbers game, which makes any value possible.

Your thoughts, please.

Edited just to see if the new thingy below works...

>>

It's even more than that. Not only can they not differentiate the 69 from the 70, neither can the TPGs. That is my challenge. Any 70 repeatedly cracked out and resubmitted to the same service is not going to come back as a 70 all of the time, for the "better" services, perhaps never again. You know what would stop the nonsense is if the TPGs had to issue a flaw report like a diamond assessment, detailing the reasons for the grade,for 69 and 70. Actually, wouldn't that be nice for all coins. It would be slower and costlier .... but it just might get the coins out of the pipeline that IMHO don't belong in slabs to begin with.

wondercoin · October 15, 2006 5:40PM

Andy: The 69/70 "line" for moderns is no different than any other "line" for classics. You have your "liner" coins and your clear 69's that have zero shot to 70. If collectors could educate themselves and properly grade these coins as you suggest - do you know what I think would then happen.....

"PQ" prices would develop for ultra high end 69 coins, just like large premiums are paid now for ultra high end graded classic coins in those fully developed markets.

Wondercoin

morgannut2 · October 15, 2006 6:03PM

<< I find it funny that I've seen more NGC 70s than PCGS by far, yet I've found flaws on far more PCGS 70s... with my naked eye... >>

----
I HATE to agree with the "Boston Brain"---but you know that's been true for me too!!!!. I just bought-- this week--- the world's ugliest NGC coin... (SHE)--didn't have even a tiny shadow of

an imperfection----It really was perfect ( at 10 power at least) ----with beautiful deep Cameos. To bad about that big snoz though!--LOL

MikeInFL · October 15, 2006 8:59PM

If I can't tell the different without magnification, I refuse to pay the difference...Mike

pf70collector · October 15, 2006 10:42PM

I can see the difference between a 69 and a 70. And know when a 70 is not a 70 in any TPG holder. While 69's are not flawless with several marks on them a 70 has to have superior strike and be totally mark free.

PCGS definition of MS 70-
A MS-70 coin has no defects of any kind visible with a 5X glass.

The stiike is razor sharp and will show 99+ percenet of the detail intended

The luster is vibrant and undisturbed in any way.

The eye appeal is spectaucular-the ultimate grade!

perfectstrike · October 15, 2006 11:38PM

Andy let me offer another perspective. Condition rarity in moderns is the norm, even though the numbers games says were lots of them out there at some time. Condition rarity in classics was likely a function of distance from the mint.

I've taken the US mint took at the Denver mint twice. I've noticed a tremendous increase in production quality between visits. When I pulled random coins from the bins immediately after striking, I didn't notice anything less than a MS68 and there were many MS69's. I can order rolls from my local bank that come from the Federal Reserve after being rolled by Brinks and there is seldom a MS65 to be found in these rolls. Order from the mint contractor that produces rolls for numismatic sales and the quality isn't much better. Clearly the transport and mechanical rolling of today's moderns is very harsh on the quality.

Turn back the clocks 100 years. Nobody had heard of shipping loose coins in 5000 pound kevlar bags. High speed mechanical counters didn't exist. Was MS69 the norm for a coin immediately after being pressed, I doubt it. Certain issues were shipped in canvas bags, some in rolls. In both cases production destined for circulation was less harshly treated. Loose coins shipped via canvas bag and train may or may not be worse than shipments arriving at today's banks.

David

dorkbar · October 16, 2006 9:51AM

I find the video offensive in that children are being subjected to it. Clearly, it's scatological at best. Why has it not been censored?

coinkat · October 16, 2006 11:53AM

When contemplating the subjective component associated with grading, how wise is it to consider spending bucks for certain types of condition rarities in the 69-70 range?

In a cheap effort to be politically balanced, the same question can be posed to the traditionalists for certain coins that really are generic such as an 1881-s Morgan, but lets drop the grades from 66 to 67? At what point is it truly numbers that assume a greater role than the coin itself?

MrEureka · October 16, 2006 12:41PM

I find the video offensive in that children are being subjected to it. Clearly, it's scatological at best. Why has it not been censored?

Because it is an artistic representation of coins passing from one generation to the next, ad infinitum?

xbob · October 16, 2006 1:07PM

<< It's even more than that. Not only can they not differentiate the 69 from the 70, neither can the TPGs. That is my challenge. Any 70 repeatedly cracked out and resubmitted to the same service is not going to come back as a 70 all of the time, for the "better" services, perhaps never again. You know what would stop the nonsense is if the TPGs had to issue a flaw report like a diamond assessment, detailing the reasons for the grade,for 69 and 70. Actually, wouldn't that be nice for all coins. It would be slower and costlier .... but it just might get the coins out of the pipeline that IMHO don't belong in slabs to begin with. >>

Do any Coin World or Numismatic News reporters read this board? Perfect scenario for a "test" of the system and a great follow-up article. Buy a few PCGS 70's (MS and PR) then crack them out and send to each of the major grading services. Then repeat with a different set of 70's to each service. What do you think would be the results (besides some grading services getting PO'd about exposing the inconsistency - and pulling their ads)?

There was a thread recently about someone crossing an NGC70 to PCGS70. So it can happen! C'mon hobby magazines - give it a go!!

ABC123 · October 16, 2006 1:12PM

Love the "Thingy" !!!

TavernTreasures · October 16, 2006 6:06PM

<< Perhaps we should go back to the old 60, 63, 65, 67, and 70 only grades for MS. >>

Wasn't an MS70 originally thought to be an unobtainable grade? Now days, maybe they should have a designation of MS70+ (better than the run of the mill MS70).

FullStrike · October 16, 2006 10:55PM

The MS70 market is the only segment of the moderns market that anyone could possibly promote ( to a moon orbit). This is one area where they wouldn't have 100,000 slabs offered to them in one day.

fishcooker · October 17, 2006 1:23AM

A contest sounds great! Go ahead and include recently graded MS-67 Morgans too. How many will 65? Will any 64? How could that happen even once? Oh the fun we could have!!!!!

Coxe · October 17, 2006 1:41AM

<< The MS70 market is the only segment of the moderns market that anyone could possibly promote ( to a moon orbit). This is one area where they wouldn't have 100,000 slabs offered to them in one day. >>

If we take MS70 and even PR70DCAM out of the picture, what do we have for moderns? Well, looks like about the same as kids filling pennyboards of the past for normal coins. Modern commems and dated bullion that is collecting something, but nothing like doing a date/mm liberty seated or SGDE set. The plated quarters hucksters don't change. Among the first group (the "kid" collectors -- not intended to diminish collectors, just drawing a parallel), there will be those who recognize future value and the extraordinary in a miniscule fraction of the populations. The 70 grade is what is really making modern collecting look bad.

When will NGC tag the first MS70*, with the star for superior toning or something, and will it bring moon money?

aficionado · October 17, 2006 2:57AM

I might not be able to grade a coin based on 'strike'. But I can say a 70 should have absolutely NO nicks (shiny marks) on them at all.

If you want to argue about how many nicks makes a 68 to 69 that's one thing, but a 70 should have none.

Once we get past the nicks, it's up to the grader to determine the strike.

NOTHING gets me more angry than looking at a 70 graded coin and seeing marks on it.

If I was to take sides, I'd have to say you have a greater chance of having a nick on a NGC 70 than a PCGS 70 and I think the market shows that.

cladking · October 17, 2006 3:44AM

<< The 70 grade is what is really making modern collecting look bad.

When will NGC tag the first MS70*, with the star for superior toning or something, and will it bring moon money? >>

Part of the problem is the nonsense that 70 is perfect. People can rank 70's from best to worst
just like any other grade so how can one coin be perfecter or perfectest. The grading conpanies
tend to refer to these as grades which makes a lot more sense. It's simply a range that recieves
the 70 grade.

In any case though this tends to look bad more to those who have no interest in it than those
who do. There is a little more hucksterism in this grade than other grades so people associate
that with the grade. But this doesn't make these a bad coin to collect just a good coin to be a
little more wary. Some of the moderns (and especially ultra-moderns) simply aren't tough in 70
grade so paying a large premium simply makes no sense when you can buy raw and get the same
thing for a lot less money. True rarity counts just as much in moderns as it does anywhere else
even when it doesn't seem like it.

PR-70 coins are promotable. In fact they are one of the more promotable moderns simply be-
cause to be promoted something has to be available. This is the first rule promoting; you can't
promote what can't be obtained in some quantity. Now, of course, all moderns aren't common
in 70 grade. There is a single circulation issue and even the collector uncs and proofs can be
tough even in 68.

Coxe · October 17, 2006 3:58AM

cladking - I agree with you completely. I would add though that some of the MS70 rarities might only be rare for now as only a fraction of gradabale ones have been submitted and some MS69 ones will be resubmitted and some will possibly get an eventual 70. This is a veyr important point. It is more likely to quadruple the MS70 pop of an ultramodern date than the MS65 pop of a 1901 Morgan dollar. This is a caution not putting anyone down.

BillJones · October 17, 2006 4:20AM

A lot of people who buy 70 graded coins are doing it for registry purposes. They want the maximum number of points. As we saw with that 1963 PR-70 Ultra Cam cent, which was not even close to PR-70 at the time people were bidding on it, the number on the slab is what counts. The coin is secondary.

BobGreene · October 17, 2006 5:26AM

<< Part of the problem is the nonsense that 70 is perfect. People can rank 70's from best to worst
just like any other grade so how can one coin be perfecter or perfectest. The grading conpanies
tend to refer to these as grades which makes a lot more sense. It's simply a range that recieves
the 70 grade. >>

The quality of an object improves gradually until it has reached the point of perfection... that point in which the quality cannot be improved upon. A point of absolute perfection exists for every object that exists, even though it may not be obtainable. For the grading of coins, that point is the grade of MS70 or PR70. A coin can grade no higher, so it has then reached the quantifiable point of perfection. If a coin has even the tiniest, microscopic mark, it is not perfect and, therefore, cannot be graded MS70 because the quality of the coin CAN be improved upon.

wondercoin · October 17, 2006 5:40AM

Just as there can be Poor-1 coins that are better and worse then each other, there are also degrees of "perfection" within the 70 grade level. On the proof side, this is easily seen as the qualifier DCAM can come with light DCAM all the way up to monster DCAM depth of DEEEEEEEP CAMEO. PCGS does not utilize a "heavy DCAM" designation, so clearly there are coins within the DCAM designation that are both heavy DCAM and light DCAM within the same designation, even in the 70DCAM grade. And, saying that "70" can not get any better and all coins must be equally "perfect" IMHO is merely form over substance. Within the 70 grade, coins ARE of different quality from time to time - so, either we can assume the "70" grade extends from 70.00 to 70.99 (and there is no such thing as "71") or coins that essentially exceed some level (69.9?) also can quality for the 70 grade. Experience suggests it has got to be one or the other.

Wondercoin

lkrarecoins · October 17, 2006 6:23AM

this is the precise reason why I do not collect moderns...I don't know the difference between the two, nor do I know if I will ever learn.

If 10 graders unanimously agree that the MS-70 is the correct designation, then I would be fairly confident.

Until then, I think there is too much room for error when only three graders look at them.

Bases on some stats on the pop reports, the odds of you getting a perfect specimen compared to a 69 can be hundreds to one...

Is it really worth it?

TavernTreasures · October 17, 2006 6:30AM

Who cares if the common coin is ms69 or ms70 (or even ms65). How ridiculous it has become.

Funny thing about the market for MS 70 modens...

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