I would take the lincoln cent...right out to my workbench, crack that sucker open and put it in one of those kiddie rides at Meijer, laughing maniacally the whole time.
Just imagine the look on the faces of those lincoln collectors.
But then I'm a bad man. -Keith H ps I'd really take the trade dollar
Oh boy, I can't wait for Wondercoin's diatribe to follow on why choosing the trade dollar is folly. Most threads start with the initiator forming his hypothesis and then soliciting comments. This was the easy way out. There has to be a coin for sale too. Yes, I'd pick the trade dollar too. With only 50 pieces graded and over 10% of those MS66, I suspect that the Linc pop is going to expand rather nicely down the road as long as the demand for them stays afloat. Greg has it right. There will be dozens or hundreds once it pays to send more coins in. I just picked out a "similar" coin to the Trade Dollar for my own collection, that is, an 1875-s dime in NGC-67. It cost me under $2500, it is pop 1 between both services (my pops are 8 months old), and over 350 pieces have been submitted for grading, it has lovely blue peripheral toning, and rest assured, there probably won't be dozens of pieces showing up on PCGS/NGC's doorstep any time soon. Any even if there were, the coin's downside is protected by it's type coin status. What's a Lincoln memorial type coin MS-67 go for?
I think that one of the key points in this topic to realize is that while a certain coin may be worth a certain amount or may have some "rarity" at the moment, as a collector, you personally may have no interest in it, and would just sell it away as quickly as possible.
For example, lets say you were offered an MS69RD Lincoln memorial, and were told it was worth $1,000,000 and there were 3 people waiting to pay you a Million bucks for it right away, you would take it and sell it immediately. But what if you could only accept it on terms that you could never sell it, loan it, or make any money from it in any way possible. Would you really enjoy having this coin in your collection that much? Probably not, and you would probably now start looking at that Trade Dollar.
In other words, of course nobody would mind getting a valuable coin for free, but if you have to spend the cash to get it, I think most people would rather get the more collectable coin, like the trade dollar.
Lets ask this another way. Say you are given $2500 cash and you can do either of the following:
1. Take the $2500 cash or
2. Take $1250 cash AND a 63-D penny in MS67-RED (supposidly worth $2500).
I would take #1 without any doubt as the penny does nothing for me, and I could find some coins I could really use with that extra $1250.
Now, what if you said for #2 you could take $1500 and the penny, and so on. At what point would you take #2, instead of #1?
Thanks for reading
Jim J.
Always buying music cards of artists I like! PSA or raw! Esp want PSA 10s 1991 Musicards Marx, Elton, Bryan Adams, etc. And 92/93 Country Gold AJ, Clint Black, Tim McGraw PSA 10s
Actually this happens to be a damned good question and many of you collectors are missing wondercoin's point entirely.
I am not here to defend wondercoin or anyone else but a little history might be helpful. My personal history that is.
But first lets get some terminology cleaned up.
A 1963-D lincoln cent in MS-67 red should not be termed a rarity. It should be termed a CONDITION RARITY. There is a big difference and we must remember that. Condition rarity is one of the most misunderstood areas in all of numismatics. Lets examine some history.
Back in 1970 when I was in the 10th year as a collector and in my senior year in high school I was a fanatic collector of mercury dimes in Gem Unc (later called Gem BU) with the reverse all fully struck up. I had noticed around 1967 that many dimes were very weakly struck and did not have the complete bands on the reverse.
I went around and on my newspaperboy income set out to complete a set of gem Unc. complete bands dimes. The term full split bands had not even been invented by a dealer named Kritzman from Connecticut, now well known as the father of the FSB mercury dimes.
By the time, 1970 rolled around, I had essentially completed two sets of 1934 to 1945 mercury dimes in gem BU all in "complete bands," There was only one mysterious dime to go. The premium in those days for a full band dime was tops 20% above the regular strike coins which back in 1970 was $13.95 for the short set of 1941 to 1945 in all mints. Incidentally, when you bought such a set back in 1970 typically 1/4 of the coins were full bands reverses. It was not a big deal then.
But I could not locate that awfully common 1945 mercury dime with the complete bands (FB FSB or full bands). Something was very strange here. Here I had TWO complete sets except for the disgustingly common P mint from 1945. I was mystified. I found out later on the reasons for such rarity which is for another discussion.
Was was I going to mdo? I went through what seemed like thousands of AU and Unc rolls of 1945-P dimes and never found one. This was terrible for me. I kept staring at that "hole."
In November 1970 at a very large coin show in New York City or Philadelphia (I forget) I went to the table of a very well known dealer and showed him my coins. He then proceeeded to pull out a gorgeous 1945-P mercury dime in the finest superlatve gem condition (today MS-67 with the elusive full bands). I was stunned. I studied that coin for 2 hours at his table. He was nice about it, believe it or not. So I asked him how much for the coin. He said $200 or I could trade in ALL my 1934 to 1945 dimes even up for this ONE coin. Arrrrggggh, I said. How could such a common date be worth so much, I asked?? Keep in mind that the 1945-S micro s dime in gem full band was gotten for $15 to 25 at the time as it was a very hot coin and not part of my set.
I anguished over giving up one of my sets and was determined to find this coin on my own. Surely, there must be these common FB 1945-P dimes somwehere lurking in bags? I turned down the deal. The dealer warned me that I will never see another 1945P dime quite this nice. I retorted but how could one coin of a common date ever be worth more than all the other dates combined and selling for more than the 1916-D dime in VF condition???? I explained this to all my collecting friends who laughed and laughed at me for even considering such foolishness.
In 1973 I ran across the same 1945-P dime in another dealers inventory after tracking it down and with the $200 that I finally decided to put together to buy the coin only to find out that the dealer wanted $350. I was gravely disappointed and could not afford the $350.00. All these years I fretted and anguished and finally resolved to get the $350 the next year. The dealer informed me the coin had been sold.
By then my first set grew to a 1927 to 1945 set and stopped there as I was not going any further until I got the 1945-P dime in FB for my first set.
In 1997, I ran into Jay Parrino the Mint who advertised a NGC 1945-P mercury dime in MS-67 FB and I asked to see it. Up to that time not one 1945-P dime in that grade had ever been advertised in Coin World. I received it and to my utter joy was the exact same coin I had looked at in 1970 and 1973 as I saved copious notes. The price? $11,000 less some discounts. That hurt!!!! I copuld have gotten that coin for $200!! Even though I have turned down over $40K for this same coin now I still grimace that I overpaid by over $10K in the 27 year gap!!!
But this time I was going to at long last, pay the price for that dmned coin that had been haunting me for over 25 years and damn it I was not letting it go a third time!!
During this time I picked up a PCGS MS-64 and MS-65 FB 1945-P dime and a 10% off center PCGS MS-62 FB and a couple of grades in between. I love that date!! I had gone thropugh more rolls for that date and that condition hardly exists.
This is a good example of a personal history that shows the obsessive and compulsive behavior that this collector exhibited just to buy one date and mm.
Beware, the same thing could very well happen toi the 1963-D cent in MS-67 red on a lesser scale or it could turn out to be a dud if the MS-67's are found. I suspect that just a few will be found. It pays to investigate why such date cannot be found in such exalted condition and what the chances are of finding one in 67 (that is if yopu are a collector of lincoln cents).
The lesson of the 1945-P dime in FB and its condition rarity and its growing fame that partially drives the market for the next futire condition rarity. I don't like it any more than the rest of you but it is what it is.
Sure I was laughed at in 1997 for paying a little under $11K for that dime but they are not laughing anymore.
I suspect that wondercoin has been getting more than his fair share of laughs as well. But history could repeat itself over and over again.
Keep something else in mind. It had been 25 years from the date the 1945 coins were minted when I saw my first MS-67 1945-P FB dime in 1970.
It is now 39 years since the 1963-D cents have been minted and no MS-67 red sample mhas been reported. True, many more of these cents have yet to be examined as of 2002 vis a vis the 1945 dime back in 1970.
I was always so sure that the 1968-P lincoln cent would never be found in MS-67. Apparently I was wrong. There must have been a leftover die used for striking 1967 SMS cents that were reused in early 1968?????
Standards change from year to year. Today's MS67 may not be related whatsoever to tomorrow's MS67. Over the last decade, luster has taken a much larger role in the grading of coins - who's to say what will be the determinant tomorrow.
If, as I suspect due to the billions of this date minted, we are talking about a coin with a very very large uncertified population in MS66, there is very little doubt that eventually there will be many more of the elusive MS67's made. Sounds like it's an issue of strike that's holding back the floodgates. There is ample evidence that strike issues tend to blur with time:
Just look at today's standard for FSB merc's or for FH standing lib's - I have to laugh at some of the so designated slabbed coins I see (even in PCGS holders). If you had tried to sell one of those coins to the experts as fully struck prior to slabbing, you'd have been shown the door!
To me, a condition rarity is a risky coin. The risk goes up exponentially when there are thousands of specimens in the next lower grade. The risk goes down significantly when there are very few specimens in the next lower grade. Bottom line is: you pays your money and you takes your chances!!!
Thanks you for taking the time to explain. It does provide more insight to those like me who don't view things in that light. I don't mean to be insulting but I think what you are saying is that there are some collectors out there who are driven by an abnormal compulsion to find a coin or complete a set and will spend whatever amount and as much time as is needed to do so. Personally I would curb my needs to fit my budget and branch out into other areas.
I also think one of the differences in this is your ability (and wondercoin's) to differentiate between the fine line of a high end and super high end coin. There just seem to be many out there who can't and are willing to spend big bucks on the opinion of a third party service that is driven by profitability.
Well congrats on the completion of your set. I can tell you enjoy it.
Terrific points, Oreville! For the same reasons, I like to concentrate on the BTW and W-Cs. I think the dies were never improved since their first year of mintage, or at least it seems like that. The latter years are most difficult to find in ms67. The mintages were relatively smaller, given your examples, and its been about 50-55 years. Thanks, Oreville, for taking the time to share your "take". PS. They still are laughing at the prices for ms67 BTW and WCs.
Oreville and others: Great examples! The joy is the chase and the chase is only exciting if there simply isn't a ton of what it is your looking for- whether that is FSB 45 Mercs or MS67 red early 60's Memorials-. Others may scoff (oh, and they do) at what I "chase" ('high grade Kennedies?!' "A dime a dozen!!") but through the wreckage of negative comments (those aren't real coins!) the fun is still in the hunt.
-I'm glad you ended up with that Mercury. You deserved to own it. Your story reminded me al little of the incident Lord brought up a while ago regarding an early Large Cent he passed on and then had that 'second chance' months later when he saw it again.
Pop1: In my case, BTW and WC are not important to me so I don't worry about the MS-67's. But I can't pass judgement on your desire to collect them just because I don't really care for them. Who knows how many collectors crave the coins you are talking about, certainly less than mercury dimes but still possibly at least a few.
But then again when you are dealing with thses condition rarities it only tales just a few collectors. The demand factor is much more significant to getting the coin than the supply at those condition rarified levels.
--------------- coynclecter: Lets hope so that I have learned to differentiate those grades. That is why I will not buy a MS-69 since I cannot tell the difference between a properly graded 68 and 69 let alone the theoretical 70.
The sad thing was that between 1973 and 1989 I sold off most of my 1927 to 1934 mercury dimes and went into other coins since I then held no hope of ever completing the set.
But collecting coins in of itself an abnormal compulsion to save part of our heritage. Yes, budgets need to be watched and respected but that applies to any area of numismatics not just condition rarrities.
Since that time I have learned that type collecting is the way to go for me and only buy what I like. This freedom from set collecting and only doing type collecting has helped me buy more of what I want within my budget.
----------------
tradedollarnut: Yes when there are already 6 MS-66 graded by PCGS it is certainly a gamble to buy the first that gets slabbed a 67. More often the gamble does not work. A collector in that case is better off buying the best MS-65 or MS-66 on the market and hope for the best. Also to keep looking in the bags (but NOT mine!!)
Oreville: What an excellent story showing not only "condition rarity" but "designation rarity". Of course, in the case of the 1963(d) Lincoln Cent, the "red" designation" is not the problem at all - it is the condition rarity as you mention.
Like Oreville with his Mercury Dime story, I have personally examined tens of thousands of Memorial Cents (and have had joint venture partners on bag and roll deals who understand coins examine tens of thousands more sending me the best coins for my view) and things begin to "show themselves" or peculiar developments are revealed. Like Oreville, who even with all his searching spanning decades, merely (likely) saw but a tiny fraction of 1% of the mintage of 1945 dimes, I have personally seen that some of the memorial cent dates are exceedingly difficult (or to me at least thus far - impossible) to locate in true MS67RD grade. The 1963(d) is one of those coins at the very top of my difficulty list. And, to me, this is why I would rather own one today as opposed to another coin (nearly any established coin) with roughy a $2000 or $2500 retail value.
Just like the 1945 FB dime in grades MS65 and higher, I have no doubt some MS67RD coins will be made of the 1963(d) Lincoln Cent, but that will not change my personal feeling on the rarity of this coin in that grade. I would also personally expect, imho, a true MS68RD of this date to be a great condition rarity in the years ahead.
Now, just why the 1963(d) Lincoln Cent is so darn tough in grades MS66RD and higher is a topic for another thread, which I will try to open early next week on this board (if anyone wants to start things off on that subject feel free to start the thread as well).
Finally, I just want to mention that I believe I have personally graded 4 or 5 of the 6 MS66RD PCGS coins in existence today from all the coins I had seen to that point and they all sold to various collectors between 1-3 years ago at prices in the hundreds of dollars per coin. I have virtually no raw coins of this date on hand (save a few in BU Memorial albums I bought over the years and never looked at (although a joint venture partner of mine still has around 1/2 a bag to look through after quitting finding nothing (not even an MS65RD) in the top half of the bag) and no access to any of the MS66RD coins out there (absent a super offer to a collector I previously sold one to). I also have no "leads" on anyone else in the country closing in on an MS67RD coin. This is why I picked this 1963(d) Lincoln to talk about (as opposed to say a pop -0- 1955(d) quarter in MS67 where I have dozens of coins to try to make "work" in the years ahead.
I look forward to a "friendly" discussion of condition rarity in "modern" coins and, as I mentioned, if anyone has another modern coin to raise as a condition rarity in the meantime, feel free to start off a thread with it as well Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Thank you for your understanding response, Oreville. How refreshing. I agree that the demand for the BTW and W-Cs is less than it could be, but I think you'd be suprised as to the number. Since the coins have been somewhat "poo-poo'd", the collectors are somewhat more private than I. But, that is another reason why I like the timing of these "finds". And admittedly, there are issues with many ms66s behind.
That was a great story on the '45 FSB dime! I'd have probably given up way before you did.
The interesting thing is that the majority of respondents still would prefer the '73-CC trade dollar. Even if the '63-D cent in MS-67 may be worth more now, there are still more collectors interested in absolute scarcity that grade rarity. At least that seems logical, since I doubt we could say that there are more trade dollar collectors than Lincoln cent collectors.
I must say it surprises me that half a bag of 63d's didn't even result in a MS65 coin - is this due to spotting or strike or marks or ?? - (I honestly do want to know).
My experience (bags and rolls) has shown that anywhere from 10% - 75% can be spotted, less red than brown, but ugly. Bags have had a higher percentage of these. The strike can range, but almost every coin is so marked up that it is hard to believe they're uncirculated. PS. I was looking for 67s, and had zero 66 candidates.
First, the typical 1963(d) Lincoln Cent from an original roll or bag comes terribly struck (often times whole chunks of the reverse Lincoln Memorial are missing from terrible dies/striking). Luster on this date is horrible overall as well. The coins come heavy bagmarked, abnormally so relative to other dates. For example, 1964(d) comes much more lusterous, well struck, and clean overall. Finally, once you do get lucky enough to find a well struck, relatively mark-free and lusterous 1963(d) Lincoln, odds are good that the coin has developed spotting (ranging from minor flyspecking which may keep the grade to small, medium or large spots(s) which destroy the grade). There have been several 1963(d) Lincolns I have come across that might otherwise have graded MS66RD but developed flyspecking or light spots, which generally knocks the grade down (often times significantly) or results in PCGS not even wanting to slab the coin MS65RD, the minimum grade I have attempted in bulk submission lots in the past.
I believe that scholars in the field, such as Lange in his Lincoln Book, identify this date as quite rare in super high grade. What makes these darn 63(d) Lincolns so tough for me is when you do find that decent coin there is a very good chance the coin has spots. Unlike silver Wash quarters, or even trade dollars, I am not aware of a safe manner to remove these spots. Maybe there is a way and the conservation company will get its first raw 63(d) Lincolns in the near future to review from someone!!
I had planned on devoting a separate thread to the problems with 63(d) Lincolns and all the pitfalls, but this is a pretty good summary. Hey TDN: want to run a constest here on the forum to see which collector can slab an MS67RD 1963(d) Lincoln first? We could each donate some small prizes to the contest perhaps along with Laura, etc. Could be an interesting contest Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>The interesting thing is that the majority of respondents still would prefer the '73-CC trade dollar. Even if the '63-D cent in MS-67 may be worth more now, there are still more collectors interested in absolute scarcity that grade rarity. At least that seems logical, since I doubt we could say that there are more trade dollar collectors than Lincoln cent collectors. >>
This is absolutely true at this time but this will probably change dramatically when the lincoln cent is discontinued or the reverse is changed at the very least as I expect will happen in the year 2009.
If this occurs as it will someday the current disdain for memorial cents even by the vast percentage of current lincoln cent collectors will dramatically change to affection and an unbelievable desire to own such coins.
Will this mean the 1963-D will someday be a major 20th century condition rarity in the years to come? No one knows but if you are laughing at it publicly you are giving your fellow collectorsthe chance to snap them up while they are still bargains or giving them a noose to hang themselves into a major blunder.
Didn't many collectors buy into the great and exalted 1903-O silver dollar in 1962 regardless of grade?
Statistically speaking, a sampling of under 60 PCGS coins is not much to base a call on, especially when the original mintage is over 1 billion. A classic commem with 10,000 - 1,000,000 pieces is a whole different story. The whole concept of the Registry sets is a marketing maneuver by PCGS to get us to submit more coins. While it may not be true in the case of the 1963d cent, it is certainly true for many later 20th century issues that by keeping the pops low on certain 67's and 68's, they have created the machinery to keep submissions coming with the eternal hope of having that next 67 or 68 coin. Sort of like the lottery. People keep playing but usually only the "house" wins.
"Statistically speaking, a sampling of under 60 PCGS coins is not much to base a call on"
Roadrunner: You are not taking into account that the major submitters of these Memorials often do so in large bulk with a minimum grade. For example, to pull a single MS65RD, one may have had a tube of 49 coins that go ungraded. Assuming PCGS charges $5 coin for those that failed to grade, that one MS65RD slab could cost the submitter $250 including paying for the fee for the failures!! Part of the reason I have personally not submitted more 63(d) coins thus far is it is not cost-effective to do so (even going for an MS65RD grade). But, keep in mind that "60 coins" could mean hundreds have gone ungraded, which is not the case with many other series (for example, I have not heard of anyone submitting large bulk BTW deals with a minumum grade, although I suppose it can happen). Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Regarding the 1963D Lincoln or any other Lincoln for that matter, I always find it useful to consult David Lange’s fantastic book, The Complete Guide To Lincoln Cents, which Mitch referred to while I was typing this! On the 1963D, Lange says:
“As with other Denver Mint cents of the early 1960s, gems form a very small percentage of the many coins saved. This issue was coined rather carelessly from inadequately prepared planchets, leaving many irregularities and rough spots visible. This problem is aggravated by the fact that coins produced after World War II seem to have spent more time being jostled about by the mints and the banking system. Contact marks from other coins are almost always a problem with cents of the late 1940s through 1968. This phenomenon eases a bit with the lower-relief cents coined since 1969, as they are better protected by their rims.”
Another point: In referring to mintage figures for Lincoln cents, one must remember that they were made to be circulated, not saved like commens – so comparing mintage of those issues is not meaningful. This is especially true for the early 1960s when there was a severe coin shortage in the country, and a much smaller percentage of the mintage was actually hoarded by collectors.
Didn't many collectors buy into the great and exalted 1903-O silver dollar in 1962 regardless of grade?
Yes, I'm familiar with that story. And when the GSA releases hoards of unc trade dollar and seated coin bags from the treasury vaults, I'm going to get burned big time.
It's a good example of the grade rarity vs. absolute rarity. The 1903-O isn't rare by any means. There are probably 300,000 or more left in all grades, right? Look at the price spead and you'll see that there's a lot of demand for them regardless of grade. Here are the latest Gray Sheet bid prices:
The last jump is a doozy, but it's still less than 5 times the next lower grade. Does anyone see the 1963-D cent in 60 years having this kind of pricing? If a MS-67 costs $2,500 now, how much is an MS-66? It isn't $500 or so, is it? How about an MS-65? Is $250 on the high side? Do MS-63's cost $150? I don't have Memorial cent pricing at hand, but I doubt it.
Pricing depends on supply and demand. While MS-67 prices are extremely high now and probably going higher in the next year or few years, how will prices for the next lower grade do? Is it out of the question for a time to come when the Registry idea mellows out and people just don't see the logic in spending so much for pop1 and pop2 coins?
Shiroh, I know you weren't the one to pick the 03-O date, but what if we compared the 63-D Memorial to the 25-S Peace dollar? Wouldn't those stats be more in line?
One point for the Trade dollar is that the 63-D cent is completely dependant on PCGS's repuation remaining intact. I believe it is worth about $.10 in MS65 in the Redbook. If people start questioning PCGS even in the least bit, that $2500 coin could fall 25,000 times in value. This wouldn't happen to most Morgan $ for 1 or 2 grades. In fact many wouldn't fall more then 10 times. Even then, there is some risk associated with buying a grade where the price goes flying, like a 25-S Peace in 65.
Nobody has responded to my question. If you are offered $2500 OR some cash AND an MS67-RD 1963-D penny, how much cash would you need it to be to take the second choice?!
JJacks
Always buying music cards of artists I like! PSA or raw! Esp want PSA 10s 1991 Musicards Marx, Elton, Bryan Adams, etc. And 92/93 Country Gold AJ, Clint Black, Tim McGraw PSA 10s
As a teenager, I bought an original bag of 1960-d cents to search thru for small dates. The dealer had dozens of bags to choose from along with hundreds of other date bags for sale. This leads me to believe that there are significant quantities of bags and rolls of cents still out there in storage. I would doubt that all these bags/rolls have been searched.
It seems to me that strike issues and "chunks missing from the die" are die specific issues. Since bags seem to be from a certain set of dies (true?) then it would be logical that when a bag is searched, all the coins will be well struck or poorly struck in that bag. Also, if a bag is stored improperly, then the majority of the coins in that bag will have environmental damage (spotting). So it doesn't surprise me that on searching a bag, no high quality coins are found in that bag.
What would surprise me is if every bag/roll of 63d's was improperly stored and struck poorly. It seems to me out of billions of coins that the odds are high a bag, or rolls, of well struck coins were properly stored and are out there somewhere. I believe the odds of finding high grade coins would significantly change in this event.
Much like the 73CC trade dollar in MS62-63: as the price goes up and the rarity becomes known, specimens tend to come out of the woodwork. The pops on this trade dollar have gone from 3-4 to over 20 since the price started increasing - and there aren't rolls or bags of it out there. I suspect that as more collectors know about the 63d, we will see some nice specimens show up either from original bags, rolls or Whitman albums.
I'm not trying to disparage the coin as it appears to be truly conditionally rare, just analyzing like a detective/mathmatician.
Many of the 1963-d and other licoln developed spots which is why they grade so low. What caused these spots and whats the chance that after 10 years in my safe deposit I won't have a ms67RB?
I never buy copper RD, I've seen them change over the years, will the plastic holder prevent this?
Just one other point of clarification. There is no price of $2500 anywhere on this 63(d) Lincoln, other than my hypothetical. Indeed, there is no coin yet graded either
As we see on other modern collectible coins, assuming one was graded, it wouldn't surprise me if people "played it safe" and it only acheived a $1000 price level or people bid strongly and it fetched $3500. Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Comments
I am not going to include any analysis.
I like Trade Dollars more than lincoln cents - that is all you need to know.
crack that sucker open and put it in one of those kiddie rides
at Meijer, laughing maniacally the whole time.
Just imagine the look on the faces of those lincoln collectors.
But then I'm a bad man.
-Keith H
ps I'd really take the trade dollar
roadrunner
Obscurum per obscurius
I think that one of the key points in this topic to realize is that while a certain coin may be worth a certain amount or may have some "rarity" at the moment, as a collector, you personally may have no interest in it, and would just sell it away as quickly as possible.
For example, lets say you were offered an MS69RD Lincoln memorial, and were told it was worth $1,000,000 and there were 3 people waiting to pay you a Million bucks for it right away, you would take it and sell it immediately. But what if you could only accept it on terms that you could never sell it, loan it, or make any money from it in any way possible. Would you really enjoy having this coin in your collection that much? Probably not, and you would probably now start looking at that Trade Dollar.
In other words, of course nobody would mind getting a valuable coin for free, but if you have to spend the cash to get it, I think most people would rather get the more collectable coin, like the trade dollar.
Lets ask this another way. Say you are given $2500 cash and you can do either of the following:
1. Take the $2500 cash or
2. Take $1250 cash AND a 63-D penny in MS67-RED (supposidly worth $2500).
I would take #1 without any doubt as the penny does nothing for me, and I could find some coins I could really use with that extra $1250.
Now, what if you said for #2 you could take $1500 and the penny, and so on. At what point would you take #2, instead of #1?
Thanks for reading
Jim J.
I am not here to defend wondercoin or anyone else but a little history might be helpful. My personal history that is.
But first lets get some terminology cleaned up.
A 1963-D lincoln cent in MS-67 red should not be termed a rarity. It should be termed a CONDITION RARITY. There is a big difference and we must remember that. Condition rarity is one of the most misunderstood areas in all of numismatics. Lets examine some history.
Back in 1970 when I was in the 10th year as a collector and in my senior year in high school I was a fanatic collector of mercury dimes in Gem Unc (later called Gem BU) with the reverse all fully struck up. I had noticed around 1967 that many dimes were very weakly struck and did not have the complete bands on the reverse.
I went around and on my newspaperboy income set out to complete a set of gem Unc. complete bands dimes. The term full split bands had not even been invented by a dealer named Kritzman from Connecticut, now well known as the father of the FSB mercury dimes.
By the time, 1970 rolled around, I had essentially completed two sets of 1934 to 1945 mercury dimes in gem BU all in "complete bands," There was only one mysterious dime to go. The premium in those days for a full band dime was tops 20% above the regular strike coins which back in 1970 was $13.95 for the short set of 1941 to 1945 in all mints. Incidentally, when you bought such a set back in 1970 typically 1/4 of the coins were full bands reverses. It was not a big deal then.
But I could not locate that awfully common 1945 mercury dime with the complete bands (FB FSB or full bands). Something was very strange here. Here I had TWO complete sets except for the disgustingly common P mint from 1945. I was mystified. I found out later on the reasons for such rarity which is for another discussion.
Was was I going to mdo? I went through what seemed like thousands of AU and Unc rolls of 1945-P dimes and never found one. This was terrible for me. I kept staring at that "hole."
In November 1970 at a very large coin show in New York City or Philadelphia (I forget) I went to the table of a very well known dealer and showed him my coins. He then proceeeded to pull out a gorgeous 1945-P mercury dime in the finest superlatve gem condition (today MS-67 with the elusive full bands). I was stunned. I studied that coin for 2 hours at his table. He was nice about it, believe it or not. So I asked him how much for the coin. He said $200 or I could trade in ALL my 1934 to 1945 dimes even up for this ONE coin. Arrrrggggh, I said. How could such a common date be worth so much, I asked?? Keep in mind that the 1945-S micro s dime in gem full band was gotten for $15 to 25 at the time as it was a very hot coin and not part of my set.
I anguished over giving up one of my sets and was determined to find this coin on my own. Surely, there must be these common FB 1945-P dimes somwehere lurking in bags? I turned down the deal. The dealer warned me that I will never see another 1945P dime quite this nice. I retorted but how could one coin of a common date ever be worth more than all the other dates combined and selling for more than the 1916-D dime in VF condition???? I explained this to all my collecting friends who laughed and laughed at me for even considering such foolishness.
In 1973 I ran across the same 1945-P dime in another dealers inventory after tracking it down and with the $200 that I finally decided to put together to buy the coin only to find out that the dealer wanted $350. I was gravely disappointed and could not afford the $350.00. All these years I fretted and anguished and finally resolved to get the $350 the next year. The dealer informed me the coin had been sold.
By then my first set grew to a 1927 to 1945 set and stopped there as I was not going any further until I got the 1945-P dime in FB for my first set.
In 1997, I ran into Jay Parrino the Mint who advertised a NGC 1945-P mercury dime in MS-67 FB and I asked to see it. Up to that time not one 1945-P dime in that grade had ever been advertised in Coin World. I received it and to my utter joy was the exact same coin I had looked at in 1970 and 1973 as I saved copious notes. The price? $11,000 less some discounts. That hurt!!!! I copuld have gotten that coin for $200!! Even though I have turned down over $40K for this same coin now I still grimace that I overpaid by over $10K in the 27 year gap!!!
But this time I was going to at long last, pay the price for that dmned coin that had been haunting me for over 25 years and damn it I was not letting it go a third time!!
During this time I picked up a PCGS MS-64 and MS-65 FB 1945-P dime and a 10% off center PCGS MS-62 FB and a couple of grades in between. I love that date!! I had gone thropugh more rolls for that date and that condition hardly exists.
This is a good example of a personal history that shows the obsessive and compulsive behavior that this collector exhibited just to buy one date and mm.
Beware, the same thing could very well happen toi the 1963-D cent in MS-67 red on a lesser scale or it could turn out to be a dud if the MS-67's are found. I suspect that just a few will be found. It pays to investigate why such date cannot be found in such exalted condition and what the chances are of finding one in 67 (that is if yopu are a collector of lincoln cents).
The lesson of the 1945-P dime in FB and its condition rarity and its growing fame that partially drives the market for the next futire condition rarity. I don't like it any more than the rest of you but it is what it is.
Sure I was laughed at in 1997 for paying a little under $11K for that dime but they are not laughing anymore.
I suspect that wondercoin has been getting more than his fair share of laughs as well. But history could repeat itself over and over again.
It is now 39 years since the 1963-D cents have been minted and no MS-67 red sample mhas been reported. True, many more of these cents have yet to be examined as of 2002 vis a vis the 1945 dime back in 1970.
I was always so sure that the 1968-P lincoln cent would never be found in MS-67. Apparently I was wrong. There must have been a leftover die used for striking 1967 SMS cents that were reused in early 1968?????
EXCELLENT just plain EXCELLENT
If, as I suspect due to the billions of this date minted, we are talking about a coin with a very very large uncertified population in MS66, there is very little doubt that eventually there will be many more of the elusive MS67's made. Sounds like it's an issue of strike that's holding back the floodgates. There is ample evidence that strike issues tend to blur with time:
Just look at today's standard for FSB merc's or for FH standing lib's - I have to laugh at some of the so designated slabbed coins I see (even in PCGS holders). If you had tried to sell one of those coins to the experts as fully struck prior to slabbing, you'd have been shown the door!
To me, a condition rarity is a risky coin. The risk goes up exponentially when there are thousands of specimens in the next lower grade. The risk goes down significantly when there are very few specimens in the next lower grade. Bottom line is: you pays your money and you takes your chances!!!
Thanks you for taking the time to explain. It does provide more insight to those like me who don't view things in that light. I don't mean to be insulting but I think what you are saying is that there are some collectors out there who are driven by an abnormal compulsion to find a coin or complete a set and will spend whatever amount and as much time as is needed to do so. Personally I would curb my needs to fit my budget and branch out into other areas.
I also think one of the differences in this is your ability (and wondercoin's) to differentiate between the fine line of a high end and super high end coin. There just seem to be many out there who can't and are willing to spend big bucks on the opinion of a third party service that is driven by profitability.
Well congrats on the completion of your set. I can tell you enjoy it.
Mark
For the same reasons, I like to concentrate on the BTW and W-Cs. I think the dies were never improved since their first year of mintage, or at least it seems like that. The latter years are most difficult to find in ms67. The mintages were relatively smaller, given your examples, and its been about 50-55 years.
Thanks, Oreville, for taking the time to share your "take".
PS. They still are laughing at the prices for ms67 BTW and WCs.
Others may scoff (oh, and they do) at what I "chase" ('high grade Kennedies?!' "A dime a dozen!!") but through the wreckage of negative comments (those aren't real coins!) the fun is still in the hunt.
-I'm glad you ended up with that Mercury. You deserved to own it. Your story reminded me al little of the incident Lord brought up a while ago regarding an early Large Cent he passed on and then had that 'second chance' months later when he saw it again.
In my case, BTW and WC are not important to me so I don't worry about the MS-67's. But I can't pass judgement on your desire to collect them just because I don't really care for them. Who knows how many collectors crave the coins you are talking about, certainly less than mercury dimes but still possibly at least a few.
But then again when you are dealing with thses condition rarities it only tales just a few collectors. The demand factor is much more significant to getting the coin than the supply at those condition rarified levels.
---------------
coynclecter:
Lets hope so that I have learned to differentiate those grades. That is why I will not buy a MS-69 since I cannot tell the difference between a properly graded 68 and 69 let alone the theoretical 70.
The sad thing was that between 1973 and 1989 I sold off most of my 1927 to 1934 mercury dimes and went into other coins since I then held no hope of ever completing the set.
But collecting coins in of itself an abnormal compulsion to save part of our heritage. Yes, budgets need to be watched and respected but that applies to any area of numismatics not just condition rarrities.
Since that time I have learned that type collecting is the way to go for me and only buy what I like. This freedom from set collecting and only doing type collecting has helped me buy more of what I want within my budget.
----------------
tradedollarnut:
Yes when there are already 6 MS-66 graded by PCGS it is certainly a gamble to buy the first that gets slabbed a 67. More often the gamble does not work. A collector in that case is better off buying the best MS-65 or MS-66 on the market and hope for the best. Also to keep looking in the bags (but NOT mine!!)
Oreville: What an excellent story showing not only "condition rarity" but "designation rarity". Of course, in the case of the 1963(d) Lincoln Cent, the "red" designation" is not the problem at all - it is the condition rarity as you mention.
Like Oreville with his Mercury Dime story, I have personally examined tens of thousands of Memorial Cents (and have had joint venture partners on bag and roll deals who understand coins examine tens of thousands more sending me the best coins for my view) and things begin to "show themselves" or peculiar developments are revealed. Like Oreville, who even with all his searching spanning decades, merely (likely) saw but a tiny fraction of 1% of the mintage of 1945 dimes, I have personally seen that some of the memorial cent dates are exceedingly difficult (or to me at least thus far - impossible) to locate in true MS67RD grade. The 1963(d) is one of those coins at the very top of my difficulty list. And, to me, this is why I would rather own one today as opposed to another coin (nearly any established coin) with roughy a $2000 or $2500 retail value.
Just like the 1945 FB dime in grades MS65 and higher, I have no doubt some MS67RD coins will be made of the 1963(d) Lincoln Cent, but that will not change my personal feeling on the rarity of this coin in that grade. I would also personally expect, imho, a true MS68RD of this date to be a great condition rarity in the years ahead.
Now, just why the 1963(d) Lincoln Cent is so darn tough in grades MS66RD and higher is a topic for another thread, which I will try to open early next week on this board (if anyone wants to start things off on that subject feel free to start the thread as well).
Finally, I just want to mention that I believe I have personally graded 4 or 5 of the 6 MS66RD PCGS coins in existence today from all the coins I had seen to that point and they all sold to various collectors between 1-3 years ago at prices in the hundreds of dollars per coin. I have virtually no raw coins of this date on hand (save a few in BU Memorial albums I bought over the years and never looked at (although a joint venture partner of mine still has around 1/2 a bag to look through after quitting finding nothing (not even an MS65RD) in the top half of the bag) and no access to any of the MS66RD coins out there (absent a super offer to a collector I previously sold one to). I also have no "leads" on anyone else in the country closing in on an MS67RD coin. This is why I picked this 1963(d) Lincoln to talk about (as opposed to say a pop -0- 1955(d) quarter in MS67 where I have dozens of coins to try to make "work" in the years ahead.
I look forward to a "friendly" discussion of condition rarity in "modern" coins and, as I mentioned, if anyone has another modern coin to raise as a condition rarity in the meantime, feel free to start off a thread with it as well
I agree that the demand for the BTW and W-Cs is less than it could be, but I think you'd be suprised as to the number. Since the coins have been somewhat "poo-poo'd", the collectors are somewhat more private than I. But, that is another reason why I like the timing of these "finds".
And admittedly, there are issues with many ms66s behind.
The interesting thing is that the majority of respondents still would prefer the '73-CC trade dollar. Even if the '63-D cent in MS-67 may be worth more now, there are still more collectors interested in absolute scarcity that grade rarity. At least that seems logical, since I doubt we could say that there are more trade dollar collectors than Lincoln cent collectors.
Obscurum per obscurius
PS. I was looking for 67s, and had zero 66 candidates.
First, the typical 1963(d) Lincoln Cent from an original roll or bag comes terribly struck (often times whole chunks of the reverse Lincoln Memorial are missing from terrible dies/striking). Luster on this date is horrible overall as well. The coins come heavy bagmarked, abnormally so relative to other dates. For example, 1964(d) comes much more lusterous, well struck, and clean overall. Finally, once you do get lucky enough to find a well struck, relatively mark-free and lusterous 1963(d) Lincoln, odds are good that the coin has developed spotting (ranging from minor flyspecking which may keep the grade to small, medium or large spots(s) which destroy the grade). There have been several 1963(d) Lincolns I have come across that might otherwise have graded MS66RD but developed flyspecking or light spots, which generally knocks the grade down (often times significantly) or results in PCGS not even wanting to slab the coin MS65RD, the minimum grade I have attempted in bulk submission lots in the past.
I believe that scholars in the field, such as Lange in his Lincoln Book, identify this date as quite rare in super high grade. What makes these darn 63(d) Lincolns so tough for me is when you do find that decent coin there is a very good chance the coin has spots. Unlike silver Wash quarters, or even trade dollars, I am not aware of a safe manner to remove these spots. Maybe there is a way and the conservation company will get its first raw 63(d) Lincolns in the near future to review from someone!!
I had planned on devoting a separate thread to the problems with 63(d) Lincolns and all the pitfalls, but this is a pretty good summary.
Hey TDN: want to run a constest here on the forum to see which collector can slab an MS67RD 1963(d) Lincoln first? We could each donate some small prizes to the contest perhaps along with Laura, etc. Could be an interesting contest
<< <i>The interesting thing is that the majority of respondents still would prefer the '73-CC trade dollar. Even if the '63-D cent in MS-67 may be worth more now, there are still more collectors interested in absolute scarcity that grade rarity. At least that seems logical, since I doubt we could say that there are more trade dollar collectors than Lincoln cent collectors. >>
This is absolutely true at this time but this will probably change dramatically when the lincoln cent is discontinued or the reverse is changed at the very least as I expect will happen in the year 2009.
If this occurs as it will someday the current disdain for memorial cents even by the vast percentage of current lincoln cent collectors will dramatically change to affection and an unbelievable desire to own such coins.
Will this mean the 1963-D will someday be a major 20th century condition rarity in the years to come? No one knows but if you are laughing at it publicly you are giving your fellow collectorsthe chance to snap them up while they are still bargains or giving them a noose to hang themselves into a major blunder.
Didn't many collectors buy into the great and exalted 1903-O silver dollar in 1962 regardless of grade?
roadrunner
Roadrunner: You are not taking into account that the major submitters of these Memorials often do so in large bulk with a minimum grade. For example, to pull a single MS65RD, one may have had a tube of 49 coins that go ungraded. Assuming PCGS charges $5 coin for those that failed to grade, that one MS65RD slab could cost the submitter $250 including paying for the fee for the failures!! Part of the reason I have personally not submitted more 63(d) coins thus far is it is not cost-effective to do so (even going for an MS65RD grade). But, keep in mind that "60 coins" could mean hundreds have gone ungraded, which is not the case with many other series (for example, I have not heard of anyone submitting large bulk BTW deals with a minumum grade, although I suppose it can happen).
I've only been searching for the 1963D for two years, but I know the frustration. I'll keep searching, but don't really expect to find one.
David
“As with other Denver Mint cents of the early 1960s, gems form a very small percentage of the many coins saved. This issue was coined rather carelessly from inadequately prepared planchets, leaving many irregularities and rough spots visible. This problem is aggravated by the fact that coins produced after World War II seem to have spent more time being jostled about by the mints and the banking system. Contact marks from other coins are almost always a problem with cents of the late 1940s through 1968. This phenomenon eases a bit with the lower-relief cents coined since 1969, as they are better protected by their rims.”
Another point: In referring to mintage figures for Lincoln cents, one must remember that they were made to be circulated, not saved like commens – so comparing mintage of those issues is not meaningful. This is especially true for the early 1960s when there was a severe coin shortage in the country, and a much smaller percentage of the mintage was actually hoarded by collectors.
Yes, I'm familiar with that story. And when the GSA releases hoards of unc trade dollar and seated coin bags from the treasury vaults, I'm going to get burned big time.
It's a good example of the grade rarity vs. absolute rarity. The 1903-O isn't rare by any means. There are probably 300,000 or more left in all grades, right? Look at the price spead and you'll see that there's a lot of demand for them regardless of grade. Here are the latest Gray Sheet bid prices:
MS-60 $260
MS-63 $265
MS-65 $360
MS-66 $660
MS-67 $3,500
The last jump is a doozy, but it's still less than 5 times the next lower grade. Does anyone see the 1963-D cent in 60 years having this kind of pricing? If a MS-67 costs $2,500 now, how much is an MS-66? It isn't $500 or so, is it? How about an MS-65? Is $250 on the high side? Do MS-63's cost $150? I don't have Memorial cent pricing at hand, but I doubt it.
Pricing depends on supply and demand. While MS-67 prices are extremely high now and probably going higher in the next year or few years, how will prices for the next lower grade do? Is it out of the question for a time to come when the Registry idea mellows out and people just don't see the logic in spending so much for pop1 and pop2 coins?
Obscurum per obscurius
One point for the Trade dollar is that the 63-D cent is completely dependant on PCGS's repuation remaining intact. I believe it is worth about $.10 in MS65 in the Redbook. If people start questioning PCGS even in the least bit, that $2500 coin could fall 25,000 times in value. This wouldn't happen to most Morgan $ for 1 or 2 grades. In fact many wouldn't fall more then 10 times. Even then, there is some risk associated with buying a grade where the price goes flying, like a 25-S Peace in 65.
Nobody has responded to my question. If you are offered $2500 OR some cash AND an MS67-RD 1963-D penny, how much cash would you need it to be to take the second choice?!
JJacks
It seems to me that strike issues and "chunks missing from the die" are die specific issues. Since bags seem to be from a certain set of dies (true?) then it would be logical that when a bag is searched, all the coins will be well struck or poorly struck in that bag. Also, if a bag is stored improperly, then the majority of the coins in that bag will have environmental damage (spotting). So it doesn't surprise me that on searching a bag, no high quality coins are found in that bag.
What would surprise me is if every bag/roll of 63d's was improperly stored and struck poorly. It seems to me out of billions of coins that the odds are high a bag, or rolls, of well struck coins were properly stored and are out there somewhere. I believe the odds of finding high grade coins would significantly change in this event.
Much like the 73CC trade dollar in MS62-63: as the price goes up and the rarity becomes known, specimens tend to come out of the woodwork. The pops on this trade dollar have gone from 3-4 to over 20 since the price started increasing - and there aren't rolls or bags of it out there. I suspect that as more collectors know about the 63d, we will see some nice specimens show up either from original bags, rolls or Whitman albums.
I'm not trying to disparage the coin as it appears to be truly conditionally rare, just analyzing like a detective/mathmatician.
Many of the 1963-d and other licoln developed spots which is why they grade so low. What caused these spots and whats the chance that after 10 years in my safe deposit I won't have a ms67RB?
I never buy copper RD, I've seen them change over the years, will the plastic holder prevent this?
As we see on other modern collectible coins, assuming one was graded, it wouldn't surprise me if people "played it safe" and it only acheived a $1000 price level or people bid strongly and it fetched $3500. Wondercoin.