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Modern Rarities
RegistryCoin
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RegistryCoin
Posts: 5,132 ✭✭✭✭
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Oscar Wilde
Collect for the love of the hobby, the beauty of the coins, and enjoy the ride.
Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>I was surprised that this paper only addresses bullion coins instead of true modern rarities. As a result, I think the author is comparing apples to oranges by using the term coins. Frankly, I think the title should be changed to "The Case for Investing in Key Date Modern US Bullion". >>
Agreed.
<< <i>Very interesting. I'd love to see the author's thoughts on other moderns than those listed >>
It seems to me that he selected those coins that meet a quantative profile that might suggest upside potential. What leads you to believe that this is anything other than his complete list of moderns he thinks have potential upside?
CG
Anaconda stated very eloquently a few years ago about how modern proof coins even with mintages as low as 2000, virtually indistinguishable from one another and graded PR68-70 were as uninteresting as a high priced collectable as well as a lousy investment.
I would agree and amend that to add in our lifetimes the above probably will hold true. But over another generation? S**t happens and coins are lost, mishandled, melted, etc. So who knows.
Finally, I am always skeptical of articles that use financial [as in stock] analysis to 'analyze' coins. Stocks are liquid, coins are not. All credibility goes out the window when I see charts and ratios, in coins there are so many variables and so much manipulation. A worthy statistical analysis is pointless.
<< <i>A puff piece. Sadly, many novices will read this and take it as gospel, sinking hard earned money into hyped coins.
Anaconda stated very eloquently a few years ago about how modern proof coins even with mintages as low as 2000, virtually indistinguishable from one another and graded PR68-70 were as uninteresting as a high priced collectable as well as a lousy investment.
>>
The author does not recommend PR-70 coins except if they are available at small premiums.
It really doesn't matter if someone likes these coins or not or if they seemingly "prove" they
have no future, no desirability, and no history. The simple fact is that anywhere demand ex-
ceeds supply the price will increase.
<< <i>
It seems to me that he selected those coins that meet a quantative profile that might suggest upside potential. What leads you to believe that this is anything other than his complete list of moderns he thinks have potential upside?
CG >>
Which coins are the most rare of the modern age?
What coin is likely to triple (or more) in the next several years?
Which coins will likely become key dates of the future?
This is the header for the essay on modern bullion coins. Obviously some of the
other moderns are much rarer than the regular bullion coins (and he doesn't go
into any of the "special" bullion). Many of the circulating issues are still unappreci-
ated and nowhere does the author exclude them from consideration. This would
lead one to believe he was simply confining his comments to silver, gold, and plat-
inum eagles. (though he does briefly touch on recent 90% proofs).
<< <i>
It really doesn't matter if someone likes these coins or not or if they seemingly "prove" they
have no future, no desirability, and no history. The simple fact is that anywhere demand ex-
ceeds supply the price will increase. >>
I agree completly.
I think the sleeper of the whole modern series is going to be non-proof platinums. Not only do they have low mintages but a lot are going for just over melt, and are actually being used by people who need the pure, raw metal. (They're getting melted down)
I used to fantasize about going to the mint in the 1800s and buying as many early proof coins as I could. I feel like we're in that same situation now-- there's some astounding good buys out there.
That's an oxymoron!!!
CG
<< <i>Modern Rarities
That's an oxymoron!!! >>
Not at all. There are many dozens of scarce, rare, and unique coins minted since 1964. There are even
more that are scarce or tough in nice collector grades that collectors prefer for their sets. Even some of
the regular issue uncs are far tougher than many imagine. If the circulated cents and nickels are going to
be destroyed now then it will leave lots more very scarce varieties and tough regular issues.
<< <i>
<< <i>Modern Rarities
That's an oxymoron!!! >>
Not at all. There are many dozens of scarce, rare, and unique coins minted since 1964. There are even
more that are scarce or tough in nice collector grades that collectors prefer for their sets. Even some of
the regular issue uncs are far tougher than many imagine. If the circulated cents and nickels are going to
be destroyed now then it will leave lots more very scarce varieties and tough regular issues. >>
Go for it--to each his/her own!
Actually Lee, the Proof Platinum coins are US Legal Tender coins and are priced by the Mint way over any "bullion" value intrinsic in the coins. The Mint issue price this year is $2,750 per set and the coins have about $2,100 in Platinum in them (and had less than $2,000 in platinum meatal value prior to this recent run up).
The Article also discusses in much detail the Modern Commem series, MS & Proof in both silver and gold.
Of course, I believe no discussion of modern rarities is complete without mention of the 1969 DDO Lincoln Cent, the 1976 NO S Ike Dollar and a few other great coins like those - the "hands down" great modern rarities of the 1950-date era, but, the article really had as its focus the time period 1986-date, which is why I understand most of the focus was on Eagle coinage.
None the less, the work was quite ambitious and I enjoyed reading it tonight.
Wondercoin
As far as modern rarities goes, I agree, there are many. Some are conditional rarities, thats why people will pay $30K for a single coin from the 90's. That's NOT for me to say it's wrong, just wrong for me! There are other rarities too. How many unopened rolls of 1983 Washingtons are there left? How much do they go for? How many rolls of 1972-P Lincolns are left? I did get lucky and bought my 2001 $5 gold at the US Capital as well as my 1/2 and $1 for issue price. Now they are slabbed for protection. The gold is limited in number and will probably continue to appreciate. If not, that OK too.
I've had my coins from the 1700's and my set of bust halves. I really appreciated them at the time, I have no desire to collect them, but will get another 1805 because I do love that design. I can buy many bust coins for what I pay for my modern crap(tm), BUT, that's MY choice. What constitutes rarity? How about the 1933 $20 gold piece? There is one that sold for $7,000,000+. NOW, thare are at least 10, so now it's 10 times LESS rare, right? Does that make it a bad investment?
Please stop the modern versus old garbage. Collect what makes you happy, not what the bullies are trying to tell you to collect! Opinions are like butt holes, everyone has one and they usually stink, only some stink more than others! I tell no one what to collect, I try to provide guidance if asked and will help anyone I can with any series if possible. I think it's ALL good! I appreciate any and all assistance I get.
Great read, thanks.
I like to collect the "finest specimen" available in my price range, and I believe that tends to transcend the old vs new debate.
I agree with kiyote considering the fact that the early Plat MS material has a "reverse proof" finish and IMHO are an excellent subset of the series to collect with respect to "condition" rarity. The US Mint changed to the matte finish in Plats in 2004.
I have been searching for a 1997, 1999, 2000 or 2001 PCGS $100 MS70 Plat for two years to fill my collection with no success (very little raw material for grade), perhaps that may infer some additional rarity as well.
Some of the early year Plat material was purchased for under $400 per ounce for the base metal, and over the years folks could easily liquidate for profit. The tight Plat market the last 10 years (industrial uses) probably continually reduced raw material that became available. Couple these facts with the lack of collector interest in the Plats (during those early years) and....
BBpM
The simple fact is that anywhere demand ex-
ceeds supply the price will increase. >>
So let it be written. I do not know why there is craze for the "modern" rarity. The kick to collecting is just that, you collect and in the off chance you acquire a rarity or something different, so much the better. Bottom line, where there is an excess demand, prices in a fair market, will typically reflect just that.
I will however offer a caveat that I learned from the "newer" (NSCA National Scrip Collecting founded in the early 70's) field of coal scrip collecting and that is that almost everyone discounts the impact of a hoard. Scrip collectors, IMO, are much more saavy on this point than many coin collectors ever have been. The crux of a rarity (modern, new old etc etc) is just that, so, is this thing truly rare? If I understand the reading, modern rarities as they are now called, do offer an implicit hedge as it were against the oh looky here, we found nother 1 billion of these in the old vault ha ha ha.
Thoughts?
<< <i>
So let it be written. I do not know why there is craze for the "modern" rarity. The kick to collecting is just that, you collect and in the off chance you acquire a rarity or something different, so much the better. Bottom line, where there is an excess demand, prices in a fair market, will typically reflect just that.
Thoughts? >>
My kick in collecting isn't what you described; mine comes from completing a set that I started. With my clad Washington quarters, for example, it was a lot of fun getting to look through a few dozen examples of the same grade then picking the best one I could get (usually still in a mint set wrapper) for $3.00. At no point am I kidding myself that these are rare; I'm not paying "rare" prices for them. I think they look fantastic in my white Capital Plastics holder.
My need to have a 100% complete set turns me off of a lot of classics.
<< <i>
<< <i>
So let it be written. I do not know why there is craze for the "modern" rarity. The kick to collecting is just that, you collect and in the off chance you acquire a rarity or something different, so much the better. Bottom line, where there is an excess demand, prices in a fair market, will typically reflect just that.
Thoughts? >>
My kick in collecting isn't what you described; mine comes from completing a set that I started. With my clad Washington quarters, for example, it was a lot of fun getting to look through a few dozen examples of the same grade then picking the best one I could get (usually still in a mint set wrapper) for $3.00. At no point am I kidding myself that these are rare; I'm not paying "rare" prices for them. I think they look fantastic in my white Capital Plastics holder.
My need to have a 100% complete set turns me off of a lot of classics. >>
Well said, every person has their interest and it being rare is not always the "prime" consideration.
<< <i>
So let it be written. I do not know why there is craze for the "modern" rarity. The kick to collecting is just that, you collect and in the off chance you acquire a rarity or something different, so much the better. Bottom line, where there is an excess demand, prices in a fair market, will typically reflect just that.
I will however offer a caveat that I learned from the "newer" (NSCA National Scrip Collecting founded in the early 70's) field of coal scrip collecting and that is that almost everyone discounts the impact of a hoard. Scrip collectors, IMO, are much more saavy on this point than many coin collectors ever have been. The crux of a rarity (modern, new old etc etc) is just that, so, is this thing truly rare? If I understand the reading, modern rarities as they are now called, do offer an implicit hedge as it were against the oh looky here, we found nother 1 billion of these in the old vault ha ha ha.
Thoughts? >>
The danger of hordes appearing exist with any coin unless the original mintage is accounted for. In the
old days relatively few coins were set aside because of the high cost of face value. While most collectors
set some new coins aside, very few saved any substantial numbers. Most of the nice 18th century coins
today exist because coins were saved inadvertantly in banks or lost in vaults. People buried silver and
gold in times of trouble so there was more variation in the age and amount of wear on circulating coinage.
There were also significant numbers of these coins which were "lost". Not only those in kegs used to hold
doors open but also those which were stolen or sunk at sea. Many people didn't trust banks or paper mon-
ey so would hold much of their wealth in coins. No doubt the lion's share of most of these old hordes have
already come to light but there will be more that appear. Not only are the "natural" hordes still in existence
but there are numerous hordes held by collectors which have been assembled over the past sixty years and
are still being assembled.
With most moderns (and ultra moderns to a much lesser extent) these coins never really existed in hordes
and there was never much point in assembling large numbers of them. The mint and FED rotate their coin
stocks since 1972 so there can be no warehouse full of 1974 quarters somewhere. Cu/ ni clad would not
survive the ravages of seawater for even a brief period. Few people would hold much wealth in coin and if
you watch the circulating coinage you'd be convinced that this is not occurring. If there were large numbers
of coin set aside then there would be much more variability in the condition of the coins in circulation. Most
of the variability that does exist can be explained by coins which get lost behind machines in the laundromat
or mint set coins which are spent. Very few coins ever sit out of circulation for more than three years anymore.
Most of the high grade coins are simply those which were "lucky" and repeatedly sat out for long periods.
By the same reasoning it's a pretty safe bet that there are no hordes of BU rolls and bags. You can't find them.
If these were saved then it stands to reason that some ogf their owners would have tired of holding them or
no longer been able to hold them and they would hit the market. There aren't any on the market for the bulk
of the modern coins. You can't just make a few phone calls and find a bag of 1970 quarters. Indeed, it would
require four or five calls just to locate a roll.
This leaves the only source of hordes to be mint sets, but these have always required great effort to seek
and more than a little cost to accumulate. Even the most bullish modern collector would hesitate at the ex-
pence of holding these coins. Interest rates have been as high as about 16% which means a tremendous
opportunity cost. 25c back in 1970 was a great deal of money so it's difficult picturing people snapping up
large numbers of $10 '70 mint sets to set aside the quarters. If you doubt this then look at the pricing stuc-
ture of these coins. The '70 quarter roll still goes for little more than double face if you can find one. This
roll is cheaper than most because most of the rolls on the market were assembled from mint sets and this
mint set is cut in large numbers to supply the mint set only half dollar to collectors thus leaving a "glut" on
the market. In '82/ '83 there were no mint sets so there can be no glut from sets. These rolls wholesale for
up to $1100. Now the clincher: people knew beforehand that there would be no mint sets so more of these
coins were set aside. As early as May of 1984 it was realized that there still weren't enough so collectors
intercepted high grade circs and any uncs still enterring circulation. (it takes the FED about 3 years to rotate
new coin into circulation).
So, no. There are and will be no huge hordes of moderns. There won't even be large and moderately sized
hordes. Indeed, I think most people will be surprised at how few small hordes will appear. There is an east
coast horde which is of indeterminant size but I doubt it's too big since many coins have been sold by this
entity. There are a couple other hordes but there is good reason to believe these are small because of the
activities of the accumulators. Of course there are believers everywhere now days but generally they have
the same problem accumulating hordes that everyone has had all along; the coins are hard to find. If anyone
had a billion of something than you could buy a few million and wait but these coins often just are not out
there.
Another thing that many people overlook is mintages. It is the large mintages which initially started turning
people off to new coins in the 1950's. They'd see cent mintages over a billion and think that the days of
desirable coins being minted were in the past. The switch to clad was the death knell and mintages went
higher yet. ...exponentially higher. The first clads were saved but there was simply no market in subsequent
years and most of these were spent. You can still find a roll of 1965 quarters or dimes on occassion. But mint-
ages came down after the coin shortage was over and people still wouldn't save these coins or have any interest
in them. There were under a hundred million 1968-D quarters made for circulation which may sound astronomical
to a bust half collector but if you compare this to the mintages of coins made in the 1850's for a far smaller coun-
try it is very much in line. And the 1850 coins were intentionally saved and many more unintentionally saved.
You can't find '68-D quarters except in the mint sets and this won't last forever.
The lack of hordes applies almost across the board to moderns. If the prices of moderns spiked higher than
there would be substantial numbers of coins made in the last several years diverted from circulation. The FED
apparently has coins dating back to 1999 in storage and these would probably also include circulating coinage
from that long ago. This is probably caused by their desire to satisfy the specific demand for new coin and
waiving their rules about rotating their stock. But there wouldn't be 1995 quarter rolls or even XF 1969 dimes
in this "horde"
<< <i>You can't find '68-D quarters except in the mint sets and this won't last forever. >>
Gee, only 350,000 mint sets left. All you need is for 350,001 more collectors to want a 68-D and you're in the money.
CG
<< <i>
<< <i>You can't find '68-D quarters except in the mint sets and this won't last forever. >>
Gee, only 350,000 mint sets left. All you need is for 350,001 more collectors to want a 68-D and you're in the money.
CG >>
I think that's about the size of it.
But don't forget even if nobody else wants one they still disappear at the rate of about 2% annually so in a hundred years they'll go up regardless.
<< <i> in a hundred years they'll go up regardless. >>
I guess that's why they say that coins are a long term investment.
CG
<< <i>
<< <i> in a hundred years they'll go up regardless. >>
I guess that's why they say that coins are a long term investment.
CG >>
I would certainly be quite happy if a relative had set aside a few of those overpriced "garbage" Pan Pac $50 slugs back in 1915.
The reason that the document I wrote did not cover more series is I was trying to limit the scope of the study. The document had already taken 6 months of research when it was completed. The other serious modern key dates that were not mentioned was in no way intended to be sight against them. Many of them are outstanding coins and may well preform very nicely for their owners over the next twenty years.
The study as much as anything was a statement about the importance of collector base compression and the impact it has on any series key and its market price. These relationships are somewhat predicatable within a range. This can be applied to any coin series new or old. I like old coins and have many in my personal collection. The only reason the modern series are prime candidates is they have very rapidy growing collector bases and when the collector base starts to bump up agianst the key date mintages the growth in those keys values are likely to expand faster than the market in general.
This whole debate reminds me of high performance car lovers. I like older mid sixties vets, mid 90s vipers...... tradition rear dive sports cars and I can't stand rice rockets but the fact is they are taking over the market and have much higher growth rates and thats not going to change.
Who do you want to be? The guy that was buying 1916 high grade standing liberty quarters and 1911 D indians in 1918 or the guy that was buying bust halves and seated liberty material in 1918. The older material is great and always has been but what does the future hold? I want to be the one who has a roll of tomorrows impossible coins in addition to my other stuff.
I wish every one of you well and do not expect my study to be accepted outright. I had to listen to plenty of people that did not have well founded views when I was doing basic research for this study but I could find something of value even if it was small in what most people had to say. This is how we learn.........."those who were taught only by themselves had a fool as their master". Try to find just one thing in the study that is helpful and dump the rest.
Thanks
Eric
<< <i>The only reason the modern series are prime candidates is they have very rapidy growing collector bases and when the collector base starts to bump up agianst the key date mintages the growth in those keys values are likely to expand faster than the market in general. >>
Thanks for your efforts Eric!
Eric
<< <i>I heard there were MILLIONS if not BILLIONS of SBA dollars stashed away by the government. Letting them out would sure kill the prices of "rare" SBA's. Also, huge hoards of Sacagawea dollars and Kennedy Halves. So there are so MODERN hoards within the government. >>
The government has a few SBA's in storage but they are mostly lightly circulated pieces
and are all mixed with the sac dollars. There may be a few '99 SBA's as well in storage
but these are more properly referred to as ultra-moderns rather than moderns. The FED
and mint also has 2001 to date Kennedies and they might have a few isolated earlier
dates. ...Again most of these would be ultra-moderns. There is no real chance that the
government would have any pre-'97 half dollars in storage. They also have at least some
'99 to date quarters (ultra-moderns) and it's possible that they have a few '96 to '98 quar-
ters left in the stream. These were stashed for possible shortages in case of widespread
hording of the states issues. There would be no dimes earlier than 2002 and no nickels
earlier than 2001 or so. Cents flow very fast so no older ones of these.
Usually there are no BU coins more than three years old because this is how long it takes
to roll over the stocks. The special programs and change in the distribution of half dollars
have changed this.
This is not to downplay the importance of these massive government hordes. Circulated
clad quarters put into storage as far back as 1999 are not getting worn down and will be
in higher grade than those not in storage. This will have a negligible impact on something
like a '69 quarter which will be heavily worn in either case and would be in very small num-
bers in storage since they account for a small percentage of coins in '99 and today but it
could be very important to something like a 1989-P quarter with a rotated reverse. This scarce
coin will be in VF in change but XF/ AU in storage. By the same token though these coins will
attract some attention when they are released back into circulation.
There are no scarce or rare SBA's. Many of these are scarce or rare in very high grade but
it's not likely there are more than a handfull of such coins in storage. More importantly, the
chances of them being found before going back into circulation or into the melting pot are
very low. (this may not apply to the '99's).
Saving coins less than three years old is fine but one should be very cautious when paying
substantial premiums for coins less than three years old. It takes time to figure out how many
are around. And more can be saved out until the government vaults are cleared. This, too, can
work to your favor if you can identify coins that are likely to be scarce then you may be able
to pick them up for a song while others are waiting.
<< <i>
<< <i>I heard there were MILLIONS if not BILLIONS of SBA dollars stashed away by the government. Letting them out would sure kill the prices of "rare" SBA's. Also, huge hoards of Sacagawea dollars and Kennedy Halves. So there are so MODERN hoards within the government. >>
The government has a few SBA's in storage but they are mostly lightly circulated pieces
and are all mixed with the sac dollars. There may be a few '99 SBA's as well in storage
but these are more properly referred to as ultra-moderns rather than moderns. The FED
and mint also has 2001 to date Kennedies and they might have a few isolated earlier
dates. ...Again most of these would be ultra-moderns. There is no real chance that the
government would have any pre-'97 half dollars in storage. They also have at least some
'99 to date quarters (ultra-moderns) and it's possible that they have a few '96 to '98 quar-
ters left in the stream. These were stashed for possible shortages in case of widespread
hording of the states issues. There would be no dimes earlier than 2002 and no nickels
earlier than 2001 or so. Cents flow very fast so no older ones of these.
Usually there are no BU coins more than three years old because this is how long it takes
to roll over the stocks. The special programs and change in the distribution of half dollars
have changed this.
This is not to downplay the importance of these massive government hordes. Circulated
clad quarters put into storage as far back as 1999 are not getting worn down and will be
in higher grade than those not in storage. This will have a negligible impact on something
like a '69 quarter which will be heavily worn in either case and would be in very small num-
bers in storage since they account for a small percentage of coins in '99 and today but it
could be very important to something like a 1989-P quarter with a rotated reverse. This scarce
coin will be in VF in change but XF/ AU in storage. By the same token though these coins will
attract some attention when they are released back into circulation.
There are no scarce or rare SBA's. Many of these are scarce or rare in very high grade but
it's not likely there are more than a handfull of such coins in storage. More importantly, the
chances of them being found before going back into circulation or into the melting pot are
very low. (this may not apply to the '99's).
Saving coins less than three years old is fine but one should be very cautious when paying
substantial premiums for coins less than three years old. It takes time to figure out how many
are around. And more can be saved out until the government vaults are cleared. This, too, can
work to your favor if you can identify coins that are likely to be scarce then you may be able
to pick them up for a song while others are waiting. >>
I wanted to thank you for your replies on this topic. I probably learned more in those last replies about collecting than really the last year. I however will always be a bit leary when it comes to the phrase Modern rarities within the context of potential hordes. I agree that the probability of a modern horde is very small, but not unlikely. Hence why I said that moderns do offer an implicit hedge.
However, the point of paying excessive premiums of coins under 3 years of age is spot on. IMO, its really hype and, again, IMO, piss poor grading standards. Hence why I have started collecting the way I do now. Mostly modern and yes, proofs.
Thanks for the insight
What do you think about the Goodacre Sac?
Also what do you guys think about the "cheerios" Sac? What do you think about die variations in these coins?
Thanks,
Eric
<< <i>Guys,
What do you think about the Goodacre Sac?
Also what do you guys think about the "cheerios" Sac? What do you think about die variations in these coins?
Thanks,
Eric >>
Just in case it wasn't clear in my first post, I really enjoyed the article... ...thanks.
The "Cheerios" Sac should be scarce and popular for as long as people collect these dollars. This
coin will become much more popular if it ever starts circulating widely. With a mintage of 5,000 and
large numbers degraded, it should be in strong demand even if not rare.
The Goodacre Sac is of much less interest to me. There's nothing wrong with them and they are pop-
ular. It's less likely that the demand will be strong because of its nature and similarities to other Sacs.