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Gold Freefall?

tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,150 ✭✭✭✭✭
Laura warned me a week ago - glad I listened!
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    LongacreLongacre Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
    What is the current price?
    Always took candy from strangers
    Didn't wanna get me no trade
    Never want to be like papa
    Working for the boss every night and day
    --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 28,377 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It won't stay down indefinitely and the next time it will be stopped at higher levels.
    Tempus fugit.
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    MacCrimmonMacCrimmon Posts: 7,055 ✭✭✭
    ask @ $509.70 -- down $11.10 today.
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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,974 ✭✭✭✭✭
    image
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    michaelmichael Posts: 9,524 ✭✭
    what go down will go up
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    WeissWeiss Posts: 9,935 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm still way bullish, though maybe a little longer term. A 2% correction on the ~25% gains in the last 5 months doesn't mean much.

    image
    We are like children who look at print and see a serpent in the last letter but one, and a sword in the last.
    --Severian the Lame
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    nankrautnankraut Posts: 4,565 ✭✭✭
    Profit taking here; a normal correction in an up market, I think.
    I'm the Proud recipient of a genuine "you suck" award dated 1/24/05. I was accepted into the "Circle of Trust" on 3/9/09.
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    HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,161 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Laura warned me a week ago - glad I listened!"

    Although gold was at $ 495 when Laura predicted selling pressure at the $ 500 -- we can watch the charts today to see if it falls back through that mark. Until it does, I might call it a "correction of speculative excess" rather than freefall.
    Higashiyama
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    Two weeks ago people were sure it would not go over 500 before the end of December. Now it is still over 510 and people are saying "freefall". Tradedollar nut if you are trying to toot Laura's horn, I say you wait a while. I believe she is not just wrong, but very wrong. She was wrong two years ago when she said to sell generic gold saints in MS65. I did not take her advice and the price of mine went from 950 to 1400 after she said to sell. Now we have exactly the same advice. It all hinges on if you beleive gold will go down or if it will continue to go up. I say it will continue to rise. Obviously Laura believes it will fall. Only time will tell who is right. JMHO.
    In an insane society, a sane person will appear to be insane.
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    U.S. Trade Deficit Reaches Record High
    Wednesday December 14, 11:25 am ET
    By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
    U.S. Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High As Nation Sets Deficit Records With China, Others

    Sooooo.

    Will the Trade Deficit drop, the Federal Debt go down and Inflation go away??? I dont' think so. This is just a minor correction to shake out the loose margin players. It's a game of chutes and ladders but it will be at an upward angle from here.

    The only way out of this mess is inflation.

    Recommended reading:

    Empire of Debt
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    mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭


    << <i>U.S. Trade Deficit Reaches Record High
    Wednesday December 14, 11:25 am ET
    By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
    U.S. Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High As Nation Sets Deficit Records With China, Others

    Sooooo.

    Will the Trade Deficit drop, the Federal Debt go down and Inflation go away??? I dont' think so. This is just a minor correction to shake out the loose margin players. It's a game of chutes and ladders but it will be at an upward angle from here.

    The only way out of this mess is inflation.


    And raising multitudes of various taxes, instituting multitudes of new regulations and laws. It's what democrat and republican politicians do. Lie, steal cheat...........
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    LongacreLongacre Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>U.S. Trade Deficit Reaches Record High
    Wednesday December 14, 11:25 am ET
    By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
    U.S. Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High As Nation Sets Deficit Records With China, Others

    Sooooo.

    Will the Trade Deficit drop, the Federal Debt go down and Inflation go away??? I dont' think so. This is just a minor correction to shake out the loose margin players. It's a game of chutes and ladders but it will be at an upward angle from here.

    The only way out of this mess is inflation.


    And raising multitudes of various taxes, instituting multitudes of new regulations and laws. It's what democrat and republican politicians do. Lie, steal cheat........... >>




    Looks like the AMT reform has a very low liklihood of getting passed this year. The little man is always getting stuck holding the bag.
    Always took candy from strangers
    Didn't wanna get me no trade
    Never want to be like papa
    Working for the boss every night and day
    --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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    It does this every year about this time, I was surprised it hadn't happened sooner. It'll pickup again in a while.
    Scott M

    Everything is linear if plotted log-log with a fat magic marker
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    PreTurbPreTurb Posts: 1,189 ✭✭✭
    I distinctly remember Laura discussing how uncomfortable she was with the (high) gold price when it was in the $440-450 range...
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    ElKevvoElKevvo Posts: 4,066 ✭✭✭✭✭
    An interesting fact...not sure what it is worth!

    “Only 13 of the preceding 432 months since December 1969 have reported a gold price averaging more than this December’s $510 per ounce so far.

    If that’s not rare enough, consider that 12 of those months were from January 1980 to April 1981.”

    -Resource Investor
    ANA LM
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    252.00 gold



    << <i>Only 13 of the preceding 432 months since December 1969 have reported a gold price averaging more than this December’s $510 per ounce so far.

    >>



    You might want to adjust for inflation.
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    << <i>
    Looks like the AMT reform has a very low liklihood of getting passed this year. The little man is always getting stuck holding the bag. >>


    Yet the tax credit for oil producers passed.hmmm Congress and the administration are comitted to tax fairness-and are not influenced by campaign contributions from oil companies-insert sarcastic emoticon here.
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    << <i>I distinctly remember Laura discussing how uncomfortable she was with the (high) gold price when it was in the $440-450 range... >>




    I suspect she's going to be downright miserable next year. image
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
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    mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>
    Looks like the AMT reform has a very low liklihood of getting passed this year. The little man is always getting stuck holding the bag. >>


    Yet the tax credit for oil producers passed.hmmm Congress and the administration are comitted to tax fairness-and are not influenced by campaign contributions from oil companies-insert sarcastic emoticon here. >>




    By a president who never met a spending bill he didn't like?

    At least someone is feeling a reduction in taxes...( oil producers). They must be very good friends.
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    dragondragon Posts: 4,548 ✭✭
    Strong Japanese selling in light of the stronger Yen the past few days. When the Yen is weak, traders use gold to hedge the dollar. Plus there has also been heavy selling by gold speculators the past few days.......not the end of the world as I see it.
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    topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold is garbage. Ever pan any? Where does the gold hang out? RIGHT! .... the BOTTOM of the pan. Every other element will flee a pan with gold in it. Who wants ta be a BOTTOM feeder?

    I'd rather have good American ...dollars... something backed with an aging population and an economy based on debt.

    Yesirree Bob!

    No gold for me!

    image
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    tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,150 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    498


    yep

    getting close to buying time again
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    mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Gold is garbage. Ever pan any? Where does the gold hang out? RIGHT! .... the BOTTOM of the pan. Every other element will flee a pan with gold in it. Who wants ta be a BOTTOM feeder?

    I'd rather have good American ...dollars... something backed with an aging population and an economy based on debt.

    Yesirree Bob!

    No gold for me!

    image >>





    image
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Although gold was at $ 495 when Laura predicted selling pressure at the $ 500

    I must been watching a different gold market because there was essentially zero resistance at $500, $510, $520, $530. It took selling at $540 to finally turn the tide! It all happened within about a week too. Selling pressure at $500? Frankly, I was amazed at the strength once it jumped over $490. I had already sold some generics at the $480 level....way too early.

    One of the few things in the non-modern, and non-Registry coin markets that have moved the past 3 years is generic gold. And over the last year the rise in better generics has been very strong....while Type, Morgans, Barbers, and a host of other 19th century coins languish. Good thing I was well diversified into lousy generic gold.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    mozinmozin Posts: 8,755 ✭✭✭
    The current drop in gold could well be simply profit-taking. This is good for gold in the near future.
    I collect Capped Bust series by variety in PCGS AU/MS grades.
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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    SELL! I think you should buy all those cheap coins from her at a fraction of their retailimage

    I think golds going down to $100 an ounce.....you guys and the cheerleading when the price jump big and panic when a correction happens. I guess this isn't the game for you and I'm sure Gold at $250ish in 1999 was a rip too and never going to amount to much.
    Good luck and get out is my adviceimage

    So Gold was $495 when she gave you this great advice....to bad even if it drops to $475 it isn't going to make any difference in the price of the high grade coins you were going to buy.
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    nankrautnankraut Posts: 4,565 ✭✭✭
    topstuf says:

    "Gold is garbage. Ever pan any? Where does the gold hang out? RIGHT! .... the BOTTOM of the pan. Every other element will flee a pan with gold in it. Who wants ta be a BOTTOM feeder?

    I'd rather have good American ...dollars... something backed with an aging population and an economy based on debt.

    Yesirree Bob!

    No gold for me!"

    Where'd you get that stuff you're smokin'? Can I have some?
    image
    I'm the Proud recipient of a genuine "you suck" award dated 1/24/05. I was accepted into the "Circle of Trust" on 3/9/09.
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    i see bullion double eagles being purchased on ebay as if there wasn't a downturn at all this week.


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    i see bullion double eagles being purchased on ebay as if there wasn't a downturn at all this week.

    Same here, it appears that the St. G's I buy in a 64 grade have jumped about a hundred bucks across the board for PCGS and NGC.


    Tom
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    tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,150 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    Buying opp soon.
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    mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    We're all watching!
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    BECOKABECOKA Posts: 16,957 ✭✭✭
    Does not seem to matter what the price of gold is. If I need it for my collection and opportunity knocks I can't resist. image

    I just hope that opportunity is on a market down swing.
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    Gold -9.11
    silver -.25

    Don't go chasing waterfalls...
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    LongacreLongacre Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
    Is RYK liquidating his holdings? Why is it falling so much?
    Always took candy from strangers
    Didn't wanna get me no trade
    Never want to be like papa
    Working for the boss every night and day
    --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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    curlycurly Posts: 2,880
    Would somebody please talk to me like I'm a six year old and explain to me why gold is so valuable? Tell me what diseases it cures, how much interest it pays, what product does it make that helps society.

    I just don't see the hype about gold in today's world. It makes nice jewelry but thats about all. You can't eat it if our economy tanks (as gold bugs always promote). I'm sure some of you remember all the gloom and doom that was forcasted in the late 70s when interest rates on CDs was near 17%. Buy gold was the mantra then because the world as we know it is coming to an end.

    I will concede that gold is unique in its properties, its pretty, it makes nice jewelry because it doesn't tarnish.

    If everyone in the world suddenly realized that gold provides no useful function then you would see the price of gold at it's proper level.

    Keep buying gold, I'll stick with mainstream investments. Here's a little experiment that won't break anyone. Buy 1oz. of gold and put the same amount in a long term CD and let it renew itself. Go back when you are about to go on social security and see which one did the best job for you.

    Thats my take on it anyway.
    Every man is a self made man.
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    jpkinlajpkinla Posts: 822 ✭✭✭
    I believe you will find support at $490-$485 and then major support at $460-$470 (not likely to get there)....

    Generics offer a great opportunity at these levels in my opinion...

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    ziggy29ziggy29 Posts: 18,668 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Would somebody please talk to me like I'm a six year old and explain to me why gold is so valuable? Tell me what diseases it cures, how much interest it pays, what product does it make that helps society.

    I just don't see the hype about gold in today's world. It makes nice jewelry but thats about all. You can't eat it if our economy tanks (as gold bugs always promote). I'm sure some of you remember all the gloom and doom that was forcasted in the late 70s when interest rates on CDs was near 17%. Buy gold was the mantra then because the world as we know it is coming to an end. >>

    Logically? I can't disagree. But for whatever reason, gold has been "money" (or trading power, more accurately) for at least three thousand years.

    I don't think a 3,000-year belief in gold-as-"hard money" mentality will evaporate in our lifetimes.

    Having said that, I don't think gold is a good long-term investment. I hold a little gold and gold mining stock as a hedge against economic, social and political apocalypse. In times of uncertainty when other financial markets panic and sell off, gold rallies, keeping my overall portfolio from getting completely slaughtered. (On the flip side, yes, when things are hunky-dorey and the economy is strong and inflation is low and global uncertainty and turmoil are low, gold may underperform but the rest of the portfolio is probably booming).

    To me a small allocation in gold is like insurance -- trading a small amount of long-term return for a significantly reduced overall portfolio volatility. And even though logically you may be right that it's just a metal that you can't use as food, clothing or shelter directly, logic hasn't always driven 3,000+ years of valuation, and ancient habits die hard, if at all.
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    << <i>Would somebody please talk to me like I'm a six year old and explain to me why gold is so valuable? >>



    It's a store of wealth when your paper money gets vaporized. That's as basic as I can get.
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    topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold has "value" and has been used for "money" simply because it is a scarce element that provides a....substitute....for LABOR. Being universally desired for jewelry, it appeals to an entire planet.

    And since it can only be gotten by LABOR...(digging it out of the ground or PAYING someone to do so) it becomes a storage of "wealth" as no real wealth has ever been created by printing numbers on a piece of paper.

    Thus, it can be used in every country in the world as a 'labor substitute" and therefore a storage of future production.

    IOW: Since it COSTS a bunch to get it and EVERYONE wants it, it ....stores.... wealth.

    image
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    StorkStork Posts: 5,205 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Tell me what diseases it cures >>



    Not a cure, but useful for rheumatoid arthritis sometimes.

    edited to add: okay, it was used more in the past and now there are alot of newer drugs out there, but it is/was a treatment.

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    curlycurly Posts: 2,880
    topstuff....To say That gold is a way to store LABOR is a fair argument at best. Better yet is to buy the stock of the company that mines the gold. To me, money is a better way to store LABOR. Take that LABOR and buy a CD with it and I think that you will be better off.

    I'm sure glad that I didn't buy any of that LABOR back in 1980 when it was $800.00 an oz. Lets see. . .gold is around $500.00 now. What would that same $800.00 be worth if it was place in a CD?

    I don't have a problem with gold, but I do have a problem with gold fever. Gold is nothing more than a piece of metal. I just feel that there are better investments out there.

    Thats my take on it anyway
    Every man is a self made man.
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    ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't know where gold is heading, but the increased exemption from AMT re 2004 will probably be extended , albeit retroactively, into 2005. I stay up on this stuff; it's my job.
    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
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    << <i>Gold has "value" and has been used for "money" simply because it is a scarce element that provides a....substitute....for LABOR. Being universally desired for jewelry, it appeals to an entire planet.

    And since it can only be gotten by LABOR...(digging it out of the ground or PAYING someone to do so) it becomes a storage of "wealth" as no real wealth has ever been created by printing numbers on a piece of paper.

    Thus, it can be used in every country in the world as a 'labor substitute" and therefore a storage of future production.

    IOW: Since it COSTS a bunch to get it and EVERYONE wants it, it ....stores.... wealth.

    image >>



    eh, I'm not so sure if "everyone" wants it, the young crowd doesn't want gold jewelry, they want platinum jewelry. I was once offered (same value) payment for something in cash or gold, I asked for diamonds, because it would be easier to move... try moving a bar of gold! It's freak'n heavy!

    Chickens, barrels of oil, bushel of product, grams of "stuff", gold, silver, deer hides... it's just a commodity like any other.

    In times of crisis, I don't think gold will get you there... most people don't know what gold goes for & would rather have your stainless steel Rolex vs. a bar of gold.

    ...why do they always want your watch?... eh, plp image

    ...just a thought...


    ~g image
    I listen to your voice like it was music, [ y o u ' r e ] the song I want to know.

    image

    I'd give you the world, just because...

    Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ...
    and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
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    topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yep. Buy the gold mining shares. Here's my post from www.goldblogger.com on gold mines.

    ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    A day at the..... GOLD MINE !!
    Dramatis Personae:
    Reginald von Skamm, Chairman of the board. "Reggie"

    Ian MacGlomm, Comptroller and brother-in-law. "Ian"

    Pierre LeMerde, Foreman and labor force. "Pierre"

    The Scene:
    A luxurious office above the Arctic Circle at Morshare Mines. Wood paneling, satellite TV, a purple velvet wallpapered room with mirrors on the ceiling. In short, a WORKING explorer.

    Reggie: Say, Ian, I believe we're not only out of Grey Poupon, but the liquor cabinet is getting low.

    Ian: My goodness! HOW low?

    Reggie: Well, we're down to the last case of Liqueur la Feet de Rothschild.

    Ian: HEAVENS! We must do something ....FAST!

    Reggie: I agree. See how the mining is progressing.

    Ian puts down his copy of the latest issue of Conde Nast Traveler while being careful not to lose his place in the article on the climate and banks of the Caymans and sashays to the door and calls out to Pierre, who is diligently mining for gold. "Oh, Pierre, have you found any gold, my good man?

    Pierre: Ah, Monsieur Ian, mais non, I am afraid not. Thees permafrost ees a beetch.

    Ian: Well how are you progressing and what methods are you using?

    Pierre: Well monsieur, I hov been seeteeng heere waiting to shoote un Moose an hopeeng thot the heet from my derriere wood melt ze ground enoof to poot a shovalle eento eet.

    Ian: Good show, Pierre, carry on.

    Reggie: Well, Ian, what now?

    Ian: Oh I suppose we must issue some new shares.

    Reggie: CAPITAL IDEA, man! That damn bank has been out here 12 times since Tuesday offering us development money to get some of this newly rising gold but they still want us to pay some....INTEREST!

    (Ian and Reggie experience lightheadedness, but recover and continue)

    Reggie: I suppose we must hold a shareholder meeting.

    Ian: Oh I suppose....for the record....good thing we kept the majority of the shares from our IPO.

    Reggie: Very. How shall we handle the OTHER shareholders? The ones who actually ..PAID FOR.. the paper?

    Ian: Well, I was reading in "Today's Goldmine" that we must send "proxys" to them.

    Reggie: Damn costly, man.

    Ian: Well, we could leave off the stamps.

    Reggie: Absolutely! Then we should get them back and be able to prove our compliance with the charter.

    (Together) THE CHARTER???? HAAAHAHAHAAHAhaaaaaa.

    (A shareholder meeting is held)

    Reggie: So it's decided?

    Ian: Completely! We issue new shares on Monday. We shall retain 51% of them in case it gets any colder and we run out of fuel for our Chanel #5 powered heater. Also I believe we should use the proceeds to not only restock the bar but maybe also buy some bullion as this move looks real.

    Ian: Oh definitely, we really SHOULD get some of that yellow material for enhancement of our retirements and bonuses.

    Reggie: Have you the new issue prospectus?

    Ian: Ahead of you old chap. It boldly states that ours is a ......REAL GOLD MINE!

    (Together) Titter, titter, tee hee hee.

    ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    image
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    NysotoNysoto Posts: 3,776 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Goldcorp is projecting a 2006 gold production 50% increase to over 2 million ounces at a cost of less than $150/ounce US dollars.
    Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
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    topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Goldcorp is projecting a 2006 gold production 50% increase to over 2 million ounces at a cost of less than $150/ounce US dollars. >>



    Then it should only be a short time before the dividend is raised from its current magnificent EIGHTEEN CENTS per share. Maybe up to a full ONE PERCENT return on investment.

    image

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