If A Hypothetical Billionaire Wanted To Control The Coin Market...
questor54
Posts: 1,351 ✭
Buy Collectors Universe, buy NGC. The companies, not the coins. 10% stake in either should be enough to get directors on their boards.
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Comments
Cameron Kiefer
<< <i>It's access to the information that would be valuable. As good coins came through, you would know who submitted them and that would help in buying them. >>
You completely changed the situation. You said first: "buy......The companies, not the coins"
Cameron Kiefer
Oh well, I'm off to eBay to buy some widgets. OOOPS! Did I say that?
Cheers, all!
<< <i>If A Hypothetical Billionaire Wanted To Control The Coin Market... >>
"If the wealthy wanted to control the Coin Market" might be more of what's really going on.
Anybody with lots of money can buy a grading service and invest billions into it. Whether anybody will respect their product on the marketplace is another matter.
Authorized dealer for PCGS, PCGS Currency, NGC, NCS, PMG, CAC. Member of the PNG, ANA. Member dealer of CoinPlex and CCE/FACTS as "CH5"
In the meantime, it's widgets from wannabes for me!
It sounds like a medium sized marketing problem... Nothing very serious.
I have a fun chore tomorrow, I get to try to discover who bought ANACS. Anybody want to save me a bit of time? Please post who bought ANACS so we all can know.
to get more billions. Toned or not.
<< <i>Billionaires don't buy coins. Billionaires buy congressmen.
to get more billions. Toned or not.
TRUE! But wouldn't it be a hoot to control?
If you find out, please post! I'd also love to follow this!
Thanks . . .
Drunner
<< <i>Carl . .
If you find out, please post! I'd also love to follow this!
Thanks . . .
Drunner >>
Me too! It always helps to question and verify the information on which one is relying, it's source, and the motives of those who provide it. It goes without saying that everyone involved in the coin market is completely honest, of course.
Whitman Publishing bought ANACS.
Anderson Press owns, (and I think recently bought) Whitman
Who owns or controls Anderson Press? I don't know...but I assume it isn't Louie Anderson.
<< <i>
You said first: "buy......The companies, not the coins"
>>
That's "buy......The slabber, not the coin".
<< <i>
Indeed! Why bother owning the coins when you control the information? Hypothetically, of course.
>>
Information is impossible to control. If you find it yourself, you might sit on it for a while but in the computer age, it won't be for long.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Indeed! Why bother owning the coins when you control the information? Hypothetically, of course.
>>
Information is impossible to control. If you find it yourself, you might sit on it for a while but in the computer age, it won't be for long. >>
If only that were true, my friend. As a former worker in the information security field, I can assure you that computers only allow for the more rapid and deep spreading of disinformation, if one has the resources and is so inclined. Hypothetically, of course.
Information, or more accurately PERCEPTION of information, is not difficult to control.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
Indeed! Why bother owning the coins when you control the information? Hypothetically, of course.
>>
Information is impossible to control. If you find it yourself, you might sit on it for a while but in the computer age, it won't be for long. >>
If only that were true, my friend. As a former worker in the information security field, I can assure you that computers only allow for the more rapid and deep spreading of disinformation, if one has the resources and is so inclined. Hypothetically, of course.
Information, or more accurately PERCEPTION of information, is not difficult to control. >>
Just as scientific breakthoughs occur simultaneously all over the world, information
becomes available over time. Sure, you're right that some types of information do not
appear on the net and that it's possible to acquire other knowledge which isn't widely
disseminated. Certainly disinformation also moves at the speed of light.
I suspect I'm talking more about information about coins and their movement and you're
talking more about dealers and their effects on coin movement.
Authorized dealer for PCGS, PCGS Currency, NGC, NCS, PMG, CAC. Member of the PNG, ANA. Member dealer of CoinPlex and CCE/FACTS as "CH5"
If I wanted to make a billion on coins I would have to get on a home shopping channel and charge 3x, but make people think they are making sound investments in their families future.
Now both the slabbers and the greysheet are indeed the responses to the market in a way. However, what they slab and what they price does fundamentally impact the market. When the major slabbers started this nonsense of grading PR70 modern junk and publishing their pops, it seriously affected the market. They created a market for it all, which necessarily diverted the revenue stream away from other coins. (I do admit though that market has drawn in some to collect real coins after they get roped into modern commemoratives and proofs.) Look how much of the grading at the top two is concentrated on splitting hairs between PR69 and PR70. That must be a grader's hell coming in Monday morning to boxes of that dreck.
The point there is that this has helped arm shady promoters, flooded the market with marginally collectible material, and eroded the credibility of third party grading. Sure, it was an economic decision to go that way. Nonetheless, it has controlled the market to some debatable degree.
The CDN (and its full set of publications) impacts the market certainly by what is in their sheets but also by what is not in their sheets. If MS66DMPL Morgans got on the blue sheet and grey sheet, for instance, that would probably contribute to stablizing prices at that level. If VAMs were priced there, and probably will at some point unless that boat sinks, it will also level things out. When PCGS threw their hat in the ring on VAMs recently, it matured the niche. You better believe, unless the bottom drops out of the overall market, prices and collecting there will ramp up significantly over the next couple years.
Finally, the set registries have been a great way to enhance the market. Most collectors are obsessively competitive. It sure is an attraction to provide a venue to display all of your merit badges. It has also (cleverly?) promoted a lot more crossover grading activity and just general buying.
I think I have strayed off topic, but I'll post anyway. HopeI don't get flamed for knocking moderns, though it is my sincere assessment.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>
Now both the slabbers and the greysheet are indeed the responses to the market in a way. However, what they slab and what they price does fundamentally impact the market. When the major slabbers started this nonsense of grading PR70 modern junk and publishing their pops, it seriously affected the market. They created a market for it all, which necessarily diverted the revenue stream away from other coins. (I do admit though that market has drawn in some to collect real coins after they get roped into modern commemoratives and proofs.) Look how much of the grading at the top two is concentrated on splitting hairs between PR69 and PR70. That must be a grader's hell coming in Monday morning to boxes of that dreck.
. >>
One could take this to mean that you simply believe that they don't make real coins anymore.
I'm sure you won't find much support for this argument around here.
You really should do the math though. The total value of the modern markets is a small fraction
of the size of the market for "real coins". It's hard to believe the money trickling into junk is hav-
ing a major effect on the overall coin market. There's little doubt that this effect is growing since
the newbies tend to be younger and there are increasing numbers of people attracted to coins.
<< <i>
Now both the slabbers and the greysheet are indeed the responses to the market in a way. However, what they slab and what they price does fundamentally impact the market. When the major slabbers started this nonsense of grading PR70 modern junk and publishing their pops, it seriously affected the market. They created a market for it all, which necessarily diverted the revenue stream away from other coins. (I do admit though that market has drawn in some to collect real coins after they get roped into modern commemoratives and proofs.) Look how much of the grading at the top two is concentrated on splitting hairs between PR69 and PR70. That must be a grader's hell coming in Monday morning to boxes of that dreck.
. >>
Trinkets bought at trinket prices - no harm done.
Trinkets bought for serious money - a lot of eager collectors, neophyte investors, and little dealers get very very hurt.
What is the sound of one bubble bursting? (Or one hand clapping?)
So, the answer to the original question becomes clearer - to 'control' (strongly influence?) the market our hypothetical billionaire buys CDN and begins to play it like a musical instrument. Hypothetically, of course.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>I think a billionaire would have more investment options, and certainly ones with better rates of return. >>
Longacre, 20% or 30% value swings are nothing to sneeze at, and this would be so much darn fun!
<< <i>
Trinkets bought at trinket prices - no harm done.
Trinkets bought for serious money - a lot of eager collectors, neophyte investors, and little dealers get very very hurt.
What is the sound of one bubble bursting? (Or one hand clapping?)
>>
There are some modern coins which might be described as "trinkets" or "coins light" just
as there are throughout all eras of coin manufacter. It might even be argued that a high-
er percentage of moderns might fit such a definition to a larger number of people but the
fact remains that many of the moderns experiencing large gains are more coin than many
of the 19th century classics that people get so excited about. However one defines a "real
coin" it's pretty difficult to understand how something like a 1967 nickel or an '85 quarter
aren't as real as an 1804 dollar or an 1879 silver dollar.
As for the proof coins, they already crashed a couple years back and are rebuilding. That
the services describe some coins as "perfect" may be logically unsound but the term is still
used to describe the finest coins. It seems that many collectors who rail against such things
are more concerned about their inability to find their own coins in such high states of preser-
vation than about the inconsistency of trying to define perfection.
I just received the coin you sent me. I don't like it. I would like to return it. I will never again buy anything from you, you crook! I hate you.
Col. Lecter
Please send me a few hundred modern commemoratives at $700 each graded NGC MS70/PR70. I plan on relying on them for the college education of my children and my own retirement. I was able to get a home equity loan or max out my credit cards for this purchase.
Do you think I can be a dealer? I have signed up for a table at my local coin show and my website will launch this afternoon.
Many thanks for all of your help!
Sincerely,
I. M. Clueless
<< <i>Escala Group (formerly Greg Manning Auctions Inc.) has a comfortable niche in the numismatic marketplace. They have some influence, but not overwhelming control. >>
They are heavily involved in a stamp investment program in Europe that is raising some
eyebrows as to how it is operated. Do a google search under stamps and Escala for more info.
I am not saying they are not making real coins anymore. I am saying the modern commemoratives, mint proofs, and especially bullion eagles are not coins at least in the same league as classic coins. That is my opinion, shared by some and not by others, whom I respect as well.
"Trinkets bought for serious money - a lot of eager collectors, neophyte investors, and little dealers get very very hurt." -- That is pretty much where I was going. We all know it is about supply and demand. All of this certified modern has so little upside and a helluva lot of downside in my opinion. I really hate new people to come in and buy heavily into that stuff and not understand how the market can and probably will turn on them. In moderation, it is great. I like to see people go through the state quarters and find other, less contemporary coin series to collect.
Back to the other post, doing the math on the market fraction consumed by moderns is not the whole story. The slab services' pipes are clogged with those moderns affecting the rest of the coins, unless you want to shell out a hundred bucks for a quick turnaround. That may very well be fair in the sense that the certification of modern material does finance the slab operation to a degree and we would otherwise need to pay increasingly inflated costs for the other services anyway.
I agree that a billionaire would probably more wisely invest elsewhere or in a way different than trying to control the coin market. We know others have tried to corner precious metals in the past. Major rarities could be cornered to a good degree with a fraction of a billion bucks. Buying all of the available MS65 and higher Morgan dollars is probably possible even as the price would rise as you chomped away. I should compute the market cap of the PCGS populations (though I know the pops are really lower).
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>Dear Billionaire's Front Man,
Please send me a few hundred modern commemoratives at $700 each graded NGC MS70/PR70. I plan on relying on them for the college education of my children and my own retirement. I was able to get a home equity loan or max out my credit cards for this purchase.
Do you think I can be a dealer? I have signed up for a table at my local coin show and my website will launch this afternoon.
Many thanks for all of your help!
Sincerely,
I. M. Clueless >>
You might want to be very careful before putting lots of money into moderns. It is really best not to speculate in collectibles at all but since you may be bent on it there are a few caveats to understand. There can be no certainties of what direction a market is headed because it is driven by people and people are fickle. Even if you're right it might be decades before you see any profit and this will be true even if you can succeed in making the catalogs dance to your music. When the music stops there is always at least a minor chair shortage and due to hoarding it can be severe.
What most non-billionaires seem to forget is that a 1000% gain is exactly the same whether it's on a $2 item or a two million dollar item.
...and the same applies to losses.
Get somebody to write a program - download PCGS population and value data and dynamically calculate whenever.
Brilliant!