Gold is good, gold is great, when do we sell?
CarlWohlforth
Posts: 11,074 ✭
For those who are fortunate to have generic gold coin or are buying now when will you sell?
I was lucky to buy a bit of gold earlier this year. I would like to sell at some point, I don't want to hold it forever. Will this run last 6 months? a year? 2? Is there a number, a ceiling, that gold won't break through?
I was lucky to buy a bit of gold earlier this year. I would like to sell at some point, I don't want to hold it forever. Will this run last 6 months? a year? 2? Is there a number, a ceiling, that gold won't break through?
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What was it that General Anthony McAuliffe wired to General Heinrich von Luettwitz at Bastogne?
--Severian the Lame
Then do the math to discover the magic price where you need to sell to get that return.
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
eBay would have returned almost 50%. Google 150%.
--Severian the Lame
<< <i>Gold is not an especially good investment. If you bought at the absolute lowest point in the last year, and sold today, you would have made about 15%--not including any transaction fees. No dividends, no interest.
eBay would have returned almost 50%. Google 150%. >>
If you cherry pick a few stocks you can argue that but my stock holdings sure haven't made 15% as a whole this year. I'd spread it out over several sectors, I wouldn't want all my money in a couple of stocks and another 2000 hits and your down to half it's value or less.
Ebay and Google are like the dot coms they don't hold any assets, they provide services.
Gold may be a hedge for the "disaster" buffs, but its not the only reason to own it. It could turn out to be the best investment to have in the next 20 years. Mining is down, government supplies are down and demand is up. Not a bad long term play. (silver is even better).
The world has been on the "dollar standard" for 60 years. Things are going to change.
<< <i>
If you cherry pick a few stocks you can argue that but my stock holdings sure haven't made 15% as a whole this year. I'd spread it out over several sectors, I wouldn't want all my money in a couple of stocks and another 2000 hits and your down to half it's value or less.
Ebay and Google are like the dot coms they don't hold any assets, they provide services. >>
To buy gold is to cherry pick a commodity. You can buy a metals index to diversify. A mining index would be apples to oranges, however, because mining co's do sometimes pay dividends.
My stock holdings are very diverse, and they have far outperformed 15%. Even my conservative mutual fund holdings are up 16.54% and 24.02%
Again, gold is not a particularly good investment. It's a hedge. It will never pay dividends, never declare earnings, never split, never be bought back.
--Severian the Lame
It's a highly technolological and time consuming processeces:
1. Go to kitco.com and spend 10 minutes reviewing the short term and intermediate term charts.
2. Ask yourself - is this thing in an uptrend still?
No = sell.
Yes = don't sell.
15% in one year? I'll take that! Sure beats losing. Even more so on the leverage for numismatic gold coins or gold shares. Both have done much better. As long as you're picking Ebay, I'll pick $10 Indians in MS63 which are up 60-70% this year. You could have bought as many as you wanted. Gold hasn't even started moving up yet. Wait until that happens. You'll get 15% moves in 1-2 weeks.
And while gold has nearly doubled in the past 5 years, and gold shares tripled, the WS stock indices have pretty much stayed the same or lost. Bottom line is that across the board, gold has kicked the a$$ of stocks. If it weren't for energy and commodity stocks and some winners like Google how much worse would those indices be??
Carl, if you only have a small amount of gold I'd hang tight until everyone is talking gold in the media and gold funds are coming out the arse. You'd be nuts to settle for 10-30% at this point in the game. It hasn't even started yet. Gold will rise to no less than $1000. And $1500 or more is easily possible. I think we are looking at beyond 2010 at this point for a peak. But you have to decide.
roadrunner
<< <i>And while gold has nearly doubled in the past 5 years, and gold shares tripled, the WS stock indices have pretty much stayed the same or lost. Bottom line is that across the board, gold has kicked the a$$ of stocks. If it weren't for energy and commodity stocks and some winners like Google how much worse would those indices be?? >>
Indeed. In my largest IRA, I have an asset allocation model which keeps about 4% of assets in a gold stock mutual fund (Tocqueville Gold, ticker TGLDX).
In 2002, when the S&P 500 was down 22% and tech stocks were down about 40%, my entire portfolio was only down a little more than 5%?
Why? Mostly because my puny 4% stake in a gold fund returned nearly 80% that year.
A great long term investment? Perhaps not. A useful portfolio diversifier that helps reduce overall portfolio volatility and makes it emotionally easier to "stay the course?" You bet.
<< <i>Again, gold is not a particularly good investment. It's a hedge. It will never pay dividends, never declare earnings, never split, never be bought back. >>
It will never become worthless paper, either.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Tom
Or when my wife wants a new house (I told her to wait til after the bubble bursts)
2 X
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
Pleeeeeeese. Mutual funds at 16-24% that are "conservative."
Sounds like the world should beat a path to your door. The average broker is probably lucky getting 5-10% this year (with many at best even) and you just frolick at 16%. Now I know you are dollardude.
Welcome back!
Ziggy29.....I too have TGLDX in my 401K plan holdings. I only wish I had more in it. I haven't quite made the leap to individual gold stocks....nor do I think I would. If the balloon goes up on gold stocks I think a lot of people will be looking at Scudder, Tocqueville, USAA, and other PM funds.
Deadhorse, do you have something against unbacked paper and $300 TRILLION in world-wide derivatives? Does it matter to you that most of those derivatives are interest rate related, non-transparent and totally unregulated? The recent Refco scandal was probably a multi-billion $$ derivatives bust that the FED went in and mopped up with help from their "cleaners." Just the tip of the iceberg.
roadrunner
<< <i>
A great long term investment? Perhaps not. A useful portfolio diversifier that helps reduce overall portfolio volatility and makes it emotionally easier to "stay the course?" You bet. >>
Thank you, Ziggy29, for proving my point.
We're not talking individual mining shares, a commodities index, or a gold fund (which TGLDX is). Tocqueville is an international stock-based mutual with less than 7% of its assets in physical metals.
If you had held physical gold instead of TGLDX, you would probably be in a world of hurt now. Why? Because gold is not an especially good investment. That's why.
--Severian the Lame
Those 2 risks are very low right now, so I have very little money in bullion. I'll increase that as the risk increases.
As an investment, gold is just plain bad IMHO. Gold doesn't *produce* anything. It's like hoarding inflation-proof cash, you just stay in place.
Robert A. Heinlein
My Auctions
<< <i>Pleeeeeeese. Mutual funds at 16-24% that are "conservative."
Sounds like the world should beat a path to your door. The average broker is probably lucky getting 5-10% this year (with many at best even) and you just frolick at 16%. Now I know you are dollardude.
Welcome back! >>
Roadrunner, to clarify, when I said "in the last year", in regards to the value of an ounce of gold vs. eBay or Goog, that's what I meant: in the last 365 days--not January 1 until today. I used the 365 days because that's how Kitco displays 1 year out gold pricing.
The specific funds are Janus Growth and Income (JAGIX) which is 16.54% one year rate of return, and Janus Orion (JORNX), which has a 1 year of 24.02%. Neither is what I would qualify as "high risk", the latter being perhaps somewhat higher on the risk scale than the virtually no-risk Growth & Income. Your milage for risk and return may vary. I'm an aggressive 36-year old (and also a series 6 license holder).
As you can clearly see by my first post in this thread, I do not advocate selling gold and buying paper. In fact, I recommend the opposite. My point, and it's my only point here, is that gold is not a good investment. It's a hedge. It's a lump of metal that pays no dividends. I am a strong believer in holding physical metals, but that doesn't make gold a good investment. It's not.
--Severian the Lame
<< <i>Deadhorse, do you have something against unbacked paper and $300 TRILLION in world-wide derivatives? Does it matter to you that most of those derivatives are interest rate related, non-transparent and totally unregulated? The recent Refco scandal was probably a multi-billion $$ derivatives bust that the FED went in and mopped up with help from their "cleaners." Just the tip of the iceberg.
roadrunner >>
Moi??
No, of course not, nothing at all.
My job pays me in that fiat crap and I have little choice but to accept it. Amazingly, I can still get by and pay my bills for real goods with it. With the exception of a very small amount of it, I am totally cash poor.
Whenever I find enough of it left over, I convert it immediatly into something real like silver or gold. Even silver or gold coins at weak moments.
Terrible investment that it is, it has been very, very good to me over the last few years. I guess I've just been lucky.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
edit: what do you think people will be looking for if paper money becomes worthless? you dont think they'll actually find value in gold, do you?
<< <i>if our paper ever becomes worthless, the LEAST of my worries would be the value of gold.... it'd be getting food on the damn table. some people.... pfft
edit: what do you think people will be looking for if paper money becomes worthless? you dont think they'll actually find value in gold, do you? >>
I don't think there are many survivalists around here. It's doubtful our curency will ever become worthless, but considering the continued downward trend, precious metals are an attractive hedge to many.
Nobody is looking for a Mad Max scenario, but anyone who doesn't consider what the Fed's fiscal policy is doing to us isn't paying attention.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
If you were fortunate to buy gold in the past couple of years, I would just say hold it. Even silver is seeing a moderate gain, as well as copper.
Profits are going to be there for whenever you want to "CASH OUT". I don't foresee the bottom dropping out anytime soon with how the world currently is going.
I bought a $20 Gold MS62 only three years ago for $450 and sold it about a month ago for over $700.
The choice is yours and you will have to make the determination as was previously stated. What percentage makes you smile ?
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>I think it's a good idea to have some bullion in case of a catastrophic failure of the government of some sort (no, I'm not talking about Public Education). Or, in case of the fall of the Republic and the coming of some dictatorship or other, to get out of the country.
Those 2 risks are very low right now, so I have very little money in bullion. I'll increase that as the risk increases.
As an investment, gold is just plain bad IMHO. Gold doesn't *produce* anything. It's like hoarding inflation-proof cash, you just stay in place. >>
Make sure you have some cold steel and lead as well.
Nobody is looking for a Mad Max scenario, but anyone who doesn't consider what the Fed's fiscal policy is doing to us isn't paying attention.>
I like the Mad Max movies! I have a gun. I have a tiny piece of land. I am learning more about gardening and am trying to plant as many fruit trees as I can fit. I have space for vegetables.
I am an optimist. I own stocks and am investing in the American way ie: stocks, bonds, real estate and some collectable assets. I own a bit of gold. If the whole United States thing melts down I still have the gun, but most valuable is the knowledge I have. I can trade my ability to propagate plants for food. I can work my tiny piece of land to grow some food.
Given the above I look at gold as an inflation hedge and/or a speculative investment. I want to own oil stocks (and I do). I guess, after reading *all* the replies, I want to own gold for more than a %25 gain. However I don't whant to fail to sell if it gets out of control. Please remind me when some of you are thinking gold is in a bubble like the Internet stocks were in 2000!
And we continue to make many fools. Oreville has stated that with boomers retiring for a decade to come that hundreds of billions in assets will be dumped into something. And no doubt some of them will be fools. How is the 5 year Janus return compared to 5 yr TGLDX? Not good:
-.2% for JAGIX and +31.5% for TGLDX. I'm no series 6 but those numbers seem to be rather stark. Let's compare them again at 10 years also. Gold's story began anew in 2000-2001 let's not confuse the picture with crap from the 1980's which holds no relevance today (similarly for the stock market in 1966-1982 which also sucked bigtime). Gold is not about one great year but a bunch of years. It's best years are still ahead. We're in a secular bull rally for stocks, how much further can this beast can be pushed along with the weak USDX? Time will tell.
TGLDX? It contains a few dozen different mining shares and up to 10% in PM's. That ceiling was raised this year. I think it was 10%.
In any case I have far more in physical and numismatic gold and that has far outpaced my TGLDX. Invest in an ETF where they hold the gold? Get real. Silver ETF where there isn't enough silver in the market to cover the demands - not on my watch.
Deadhorse, I'm with you. There won't be a total destruction of our currency, but after a fall to .5 to .6 on the USDX, gold will be a better place to be.
roadrunner
India is getting richer.
Chinese folks like gold.
Indian folks like gold.
American folks like electronics and borrowing against their houses.
Chinese and Indian people make and service electronic gizmoes that they sell to American people who don't care how much they owe.
Let's see...where's my pencil?
Uh...nope...it's just too complicated.
I do believe that asking for when to sell gold here is kind of like asking the Pope when to become an atheist.
roadrunner
Master Collector
Posts: 5877
Joined: Jan 2002
Monday November 21, 2005 5:44 PM
Weiss sounds like he's an alt ID for Dollardude. Sure, we all picked Ebay and Google for our portfolio's. I have 10,000 shares which I'm cashing out of tomorrow (lol). While that may worked for this year for specific people (not the 99% majority) so what about next year? I know, you bought Microsoft in 1986 also. Well done.
15% in one year? I'll take that! Sure beats losing. Even more so on the leverage for numismatic gold coins or gold shares. Both have done much better. As long as you're picking Ebay, I'll pick $10 Indians in MS63 which are up 60-70% this year. You could have bought as many as you wanted. Gold hasn't even started moving up yet. Wait until that happens. You'll get 15% moves in 1-2 weeks.
And while gold has nearly doubled in the past 5 years, and gold shares tripled, the WS stock indices have pretty much stayed the same or lost. Bottom line is that across the board, gold has kicked the a$$ of stocks. If it weren't for energy and commodity stocks and some winners like Google how much worse would those indices be??
Carl, if you only have a small amount of gold I'd hang tight until everyone is talking gold in the media and gold funds are coming out the arse. You'd be nuts to settle for 10-30% at this point in the game. It hasn't even started yet. Gold will rise to no less than $1000. And $1500 or more is easily possible. I think we are looking at beyond 2010 at this point for a peak. But you have to decide.
roadrunner
choice ms63 64 65 saints generics pcgs/ngc
proof gold but better pieces like the sexy three dollar gold ten libs and civil war proof gold and pre civial war proof gold
threes in choice xf to au
If the amount you have in gold is serious money for you, you are already in over your head. More cliches for you: Sell down to the sleeping point. Average out a bit each month to take the emotion out of it and lessen the chance of making an emotional and often really stupid decision.
Nobody buys at the bottom and sells at the top except liars. Those that buy at the bottom tend to have totally different personalities from those that sell at the top. Tops are defined by a maximum number of buyers and fewest number of sellers.
<< <i>
Make sure you have some cold steel and lead as well. >>
Now that's what I'm talkin' 'bout!
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
The Forum as a mix is heavily biased against gold bullion. Probably 10 to 1. So as long as we continue to get lots of opposition to every gold move I know we are still clear to sail. Once the Coin Forum becomes mostly pro-gold, it's time to go.
Since I used the Ouija board to time my entrance into the market, I sure hope I have it when it's time to exit!
roadrunner
Kind of like gamblers...if you ask them how they did, it goes like this:
Broke Even=I lost some
Won Big=I won some
Didn't Do Well=Lost all of it