The Death of Fresh

RYK · October 3, 2005 12:05PM

The following scenario gets played out with increasing frequency is my search for coins to add to my collection...

I see a cool, rare coin in a dealer inventory. I visit the Heritage auction archives to get an idea of how much activity the date has seen and to get an idea how much I should pay for it. I find that the exact coin has traded, not once, but twice, in Heritage auctions in the last year.

coinlieutenant · October 3, 2005 12:07PM

Oh yeah...if coins in todays market were fish...well, they wouldnt smell good.

FatMan · October 3, 2005 12:10PM

Interesting little emoticon animation you got going there RYK.

RYK · October 3, 2005 12:12PM

Interesting little emoticon animation you got going there RYK.

Something had to be fresh.

291fifth · October 4, 2005 12:42AM

As stale as the stock in a Sunday bourse dealer's cases.

mgoodm3 · October 4, 2005 12:50AM

Last one I was bidding on was sold last year by heritage in a slab one point lower.

UncleJoe · October 4, 2005 12:55AM

I don't understand.

Is the coin no longer a cool, rare coin in your eyes because it was traded twice in the last year? I don't follow how one thing affects the other.

Joe.

Longacre · October 4, 2005 1:56AM

Sometimes I like to see activity because it indicates it is a popular date and has a readily determinable market value.

keets · October 4, 2005 1:58AM

remember that i like you, Robert, but honestly, who do you think is to blame for the scenario you laid out??

i would think that the lack of fresh material is as much the fault of the big dealers you like to tout and buy from as anyone else. the problem for you is that you just aren't high enough up on the food-chain to get the choice stuff. past that, the coins that you see at Heritage, in all likelihood, never sold those times. they were just held back by the seller in eBay reserve fashion. the next time one of the big dealers comes on and talks about all the dealer/dealer trading that goes on in the hotel rooms and before the collectors arrive at shows, make sure you chime in about the lack of fresh material for average collectors and your attendant frustration.

Regulated · October 4, 2005 1:59AM

I wonder whether you would have seen the same thing happening in the market 10 or 20 years ago, had you been able to track auctions on the internet then.

RYK · October 4, 2005 3:47AM

Is the coin no longer a cool, rare coin in your eyes because it was traded twice in the last year? I don't follow how one thing affects the other.

It should not...but it makes me think twice before buying. The more I think about it, the easier it is to talmk myself out of it.

he coins that you see at Heritage, in all likelihood, never sold those times.

I am talking about coins that have indeed sold.

i would think that the lack of fresh material is as much the fault of the big dealers you like to tout and buy from as anyone else.

How is it their fault? I am not sure I understand. They can only buy and sell what presents itself on the market.

I wonder whether you would have seen the same thing happening in the market 10 or 20 years ago, had you been able to track auctions on the internet then.

Maybe, maybe not. The internet also seems to be a facilitator of coin buying and selling activity. I would bet that collectors turn their coins over at a rate much higher than they did 20 years ago.

mgoodm3 · October 4, 2005 3:51AM

Solution: stop thinking and buy some coins.

anablep · October 4, 2005 3:52AM

<< <i>I would bet that collectors turn their coins over at a rate much higher than they did 20 years ago. >>

That's for sure, especially for Morgans, Lincolns and perhaps gold. But submissions to TPG also have a lot to do with that as well

ARCO · October 4, 2005 3:56AM

"Fresh" is just a marketing term used to denote that a coin must be extra spectacular if the last buyer wouldn't part with the coin for years or decades...of course lots of common coin hoarders do the same thing and their coins are merely junk.

It could be with the internet and increased liquidity that coins now offer, that some collectors don't feel a need to hold onto a coin for eternity. Owning a coin for six months to a year, enjoying it, studying it and then reselling it to repeat the process is just as rewarding as stashing coins away into a safety deposit box for three decades. As a collector I love the hunt. I find that owning the coin is secondary to finding the coin initially and buying it. Once I own it, I seek that thrill of discovery and lose some interest in the coin (well, except for my Barber halves).

In addition, some higher end coins are now costing a small fortune to buy. Why tie up thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars in coins, when one could simply buy a coin, hold it for a short period of time and then resell it? I guess it all boils down to the look and condition of the coin. I don't care if the coin has sold a thousand times before I get my mitts on it, as long as it is a coin I want/need, looks great and is priced at a level commensurate with the market.

Tyler

Garneteye · October 4, 2005 4:14AM

ARCO

Great post!

RYK · October 4, 2005 4:35AM

Arco, very good post and perspective. I have been collecting like that, in part, for the last three years. Some coins are clearly "permanent" holds (like your Barber halves) and some are "I will enjoy this for a while" acquisitions. Sometimes coins in the permanent category move into the temporary category as tastes and interests change. Plus, since most of our finances are not virtually infinite, often buying a new cool coin means kicking out another coin.

RegistryCoin · October 4, 2005 4:43AM

the same coin at a new grade is "fresh", is it, or is it not???

keets · October 4, 2005 4:50AM

if you would have read my response, you would know why i think it's "their" fault. the reason you never see any fresh material is because it's gone before you ever get a shot at it. also, anyone who thinks the total Numismatic offerings are what is out in the open today at venues we frequent is deluding themselves. there's plenty held by collectors who are so distanced from the goings on here and at all the places we think are common knowledge to everyone, that it boggles my mind. look no further than me sig-line or Bank Box. none of the choicest coins came from any dealer/web site/coin show. the "fresh" material is abundant if you look in the right place at the right time and know what you're seeing. myopia will kill you every time.

please remember that the majority of the hobbyists are not tied in to the internet and don't attend the major shows..............while also being the same individuals who obtained all the "fresh" material 10-20-30-40 years ago, and perhaps don't really know what they have. i figure all the expectation of "fresh' material you're longing for is a symptom of the past 4-5 years. we tend to think the train will never end and like to dismiss those who hint that it may be just around the bend.

i, for one, love cabooses. for all you youngsters out there, that what we used to call the last car on a train, the one that's been replaced by the strobe light.

DHeath · October 4, 2005 4:52AM

RYK,

I found fresh today, and it's likely why I enjoy collecting some of the stuff I do. I went by a buddy's shop and looked through some of his latest purchases. I bought a partial Dansco set of Washingtons (53-88) fairly complete. The 54-S is well struck from one of the freshest reverse dies I've ever found. The coin is an MS65 white. Also in this set was a 69-D with a hammered reverse (full tail, great definition of the right wing) in MS66. All of the clads have a lovely champagne toning, and many have blue rims. Looks like the set had been together for awhile. The collector was obsessed with strike. The 82 coins were pretty average MS64's, but the 83-P is a STUD. It is lightly toned, full luster, and mark free. The die polish in the obverse field will likely hold the coin to 66, but it looks like a 7. I chatted for about an hour, and paid $60 for the set including the Dansco. While I was there, I looked at the colonials and tokens he'd just picked up from an estate, the "not one cent" and "liberty or die" stuff, all circs in the XF+ range. It was a fun day.

Just thought I'd share a little cheer from the other side of the fence.

291fifth · October 4, 2005 4:53AM

As Keets says, all the best coins are placed with serious buyers (with money!!!) before ordinary collectors ever see them.

keets · October 4, 2005 4:56AM

hey Don, just in case noone has told you just how much you suck.....................well, you probably know!!!!!!!!!!!

RYK · October 4, 2005 4:58AM

if you would have read my response, you would know why i think it's "their" fault. the reason you never see any fresh material is because it's gone before you ever get a shot at it.

I did read the response. I am often the beneficiary of coins that never make it to dealer's website inventory lists.

Just thought I'd share a little cheer from the other side of the fence.

Don, which side is that?

DHeath · October 4, 2005 5:01AM

The $60 side.......

mhammerman · October 4, 2005 5:03AM

"the same coin at a new grade is "fresh", is it, or is it not???"

Not when it has been "conserved" to be a tidy whitie, resubmitted over and over until it is in the highest possible holder and below average for the grade, or being offered only for speculative money, or cracked out and being sold as raw buy someone, "lookin for a new fool".

The comments about being lower in the food chain are very true...it's kind of like the regular guys have to feed on slim pickins from Heritage internet auctions and ebay while the big dogs dine at Long Beach and FUN...so, what's new? There are some nice coins out there but it seems that you have to look a lot to find a little and that's not all bad, actually, it's kinda good because it makes the regular guy be very selective and really bone up on what's available and what it should cost.

cladking · October 4, 2005 5:11AM

<< <i>hey Don, just in case noone has told you just how much you suck.....................well, you probably know!!!!!!!!!!!

>>

For those who aren't familiar with moderns, the '83-P is a scarce coin even in nice MS-64. In high
grade it approaches being rare.

pharmer · October 4, 2005 5:23AM

RedTiger · October 4, 2005 9:14AM

I am late to the thread but will toss in my comments. Fresh definitely makes a difference. For example, if I know that a collection was assembled ten or more years ago and has been off the market, I would be much more willing to bid up compared to a collection of equivalent coins put together in the past year. To narrow it to one coin, if I knew a coin had been flipped twenty times in the past five years, and another coin had been off the market for five years, most of the time the latter coin is going to be better. These are generalizations and there are going to be exceptions.

Nice coins generally find stable homes. Sure there are those that assemble sets and then disperse them on a regular basis. However, there are also a large percentage of collectors that look for nice coins and rarely sell. Combine these two effects on a regular basis and the nicer coins rarely become available. Sure some of them get secreted away, there are comments on other threads about how auctions are becoming a larger part of the market. Often times it a collector consigning these coins, and they may indeed be fresh to the market after being held off market for a period. If a coin has already been flipped at auction several times recently, it means several things to me. One is that there is a slim to none chance that the coin can upgrade. If the coin went for strong money, probably someone thought it could and tried to cross it, and failed, possibly several times.

So yes, fresh is better and sometimes collectors do have an equal shot at them if a collector consigns to an auction or to Teletrade or whatever.

RYK · October 4, 2005 10:10AM

Red Tiger, you have articulated my sentiments very well...better than I could.

wayneherndon · October 4, 2005 10:40AM

Heritage typically places bids on unreserved items. I'd bet many of the items you see were consigned with no reserve, bought by Heritage, and then resold by Heritage through one of their subsequent auctions.

WH

tradedollarnut · October 4, 2005 10:50AM

I have learned to stay at the table most of the time during the few shows I attend each year. The odds are far higher of seeing something fresh walk up than to see it in a bourse case for sale.

coinkat · October 4, 2005 10:55AM

Fresh is a relative term depending upon what you coins you are seeking... There are coins out there, that by definition, would be considered stale, however, how many coins in a dealers stock really get the look that makes a difference between a great find and the next day look that makes you think...what did I see in this coin?

Don't follow the lemmings...

The Death of Fresh

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