The Heck w/Gold Look at Silver...

Danegeld · September 18, 2005 11:10PM

$7.37 + 1.94%

Ben

Steve27 · September 18, 2005 11:25PM

Not bad!

Steve27 · September 18, 2005 11:26PM

But gold is still impressive, check that slope!

Danegeld · September 18, 2005 11:28PM

Oh, Gold is off the charts, I just have LOTS more Silver than (only 5oz) of gold

Ben

ttown · September 18, 2005 11:29PM

I've got both and while Silver been around 7 bucks Gold shot from around 420ish to present levels. It's about time it rose when Gold was at it's peak last year silver was 8 bucks and were a far cry from that so there should be more upside. One word of caution both could drop after Sept. 27th when the Central Banks can sell again to attempt to control gold and keep people in flat money and the stock market.

ScarsdaleCoin · September 18, 2005 11:31PM

dont see nearly the upside for silver that I see for gold....

291fifth · September 18, 2005 11:40PM

Many, many people have been waiting for silver to rise so they can dump what they bought years ago and claim they didn't lose money. They forget about opportunity cost, of course.

Gold probably has more potential as inflation is likely to heat up in the coming months. This will be the metal of preference.

NeoNumismaniac · September 19, 2005 12:09AM

<< Many, many people have been waiting for silver to rise so they can dump what they bought years ago and claim they didn't lose money. They forget about opportunity cost, of course.

Gold probably has more potential as inflation is likely to heat up in the coming months. This will be the metal of preference. >>

Neo...

cladking · September 19, 2005 12:53AM

<< Many, many people have been waiting for silver to rise so they can dump what they bought years ago and claim they didn't lose money. They forget about opportunity cost, of course.

Gold probably has more potential as inflation is likely to heat up in the coming months. This will be the metal of preference. >>

There are a lot of silver bulls and some are no doubt tired.

But the total amount of silver owned by all these bulls is much less than the total
amount of silver that was owned by the masses in 1980. The total amount of gold
in the world is significantly higher and more is available because of the actions of
the central banks.

Silver is a coiled spring even if it stays coiled another generation.

JoesMaName · September 19, 2005 1:54AM

<< Many, many people have been waiting for silver to rise so they can dump what they bought years ago and claim they didn't lose money. They forget about opportunity cost, of course.

Gold probably has more potential as inflation is likely to heat up in the coming months. This will be the metal of preference. >>

The problem I have with investing in gold is that less then 100 years ago you could take your 20 silver dollars to a bank and exchange it for a $20 ounce of gold and this ratio had been around quite a while. With this in mind either silver is way under valued at about 60:1 or gold is way over valued - Or do you all think this new value ratio more realistically represent the relative abundance (balanced with demand) of the two metals?

Steve27 · September 19, 2005 6:11AM

Looks like a bit of a turnaround.

cladking · September 19, 2005 6:51AM

<< [. >>

The problem I have with investing in gold is that less then 100 years ago you could take your 20 silver dollars to a bank and exchange it for a $20 ounce of gold and this ratio had been around quite a while. With this in mind either silver is way under valued at about 60:1 or gold is way over valued - Or do you all think this new value ratio more realistically represent the relative abundance (balanced with demand) of the two metals? >>

Interestingly there is more than twice as much gold in the world than there was
one hundred years ago and more of it is available on the market. There is roughly
the same amount of silver and much less is available on the market because it is
tied up in things which are too valuable to recover their silver even if it were many
times its current price.

tincup · September 19, 2005 7:13AM

So if the amount of gold.... has doubled...... but the amount of silver has remained the same in this time period...... what has happened to all of the silver?? Just disappeared? Or is it in a form that can still be recovered?

oreville · September 19, 2005 7:38AM

<<<<<<There is roughlythe same amount of silver and much less is available on the market because it is tied up in things which are too valuable to recover their silver even if it were many times its current price. >>>>>

Hmmm, I can't yank off my wife's silver earrings?

cladking · September 19, 2005 7:46AM

<< So if the amount of gold.... has doubled...... but the amount of silver has remained the same in this time period...... what has happened to all of the silver?? Just disappeared? Or is it in a form that can still be recovered? >>

Silver is consumed by industry and other users. It is used extensively in electrical
contacts, photography, plating, and myriad other uses where none or less than all
will be recovered. In the '60's you could buy silver foil in the supermarket to use in
craft projects or like aluminum foil. Many old pictures contain a little silver. Silver is
used even in some packaging in tiny amounts. It is used in medicine and sometimes
in solder and such applications. The bulk of this is unrecoverable and is in landfills
and washed out to sea.

There is also a lot of silver that is recycled but even in photography this wasn't
widely done until the late 1930's.

More silver is tied up also. Not only in applications but also as objects of art and
museum pieces. Look at all the silver coins made since 1905 that just we board mem-
bers own.

Aggregate total industry silver production has probably about tripled since 1905, but
consumption has made major inroads on these totals (some experts differ on this point).
Aggregate gold production has probably done little more than double but most of the
gold ever mined is still around. The central banks no longer have quite the strangle-
hold on supply they once did.

The perception of many people is that gold has far more attributes of money than
does silver so it's entirely possible gold could make a move without silver, but were
this perception to change or if more new applications for silver emerge then silver
could well make a move without gold. It's entirely possible that the silver price could
close the gap with gold even if it could never reach parity.

The better the economy goes the better bet silver is in comparison to gold. The high-
er inflation jitters get the better a bet gold is. Neither metal will be of much value if
the currency fails or there's a depression. My bet is that both metals will do well and
that silver will outperform gold in the long run. The downside to silver is that it will
make most of its move in a relatively brief period of time which will leave most would-
be investors holding the bag.

SFDukie · September 19, 2005 8:16AM

Clad,
Why do you think a silver price increase would be over a short timeframe? Not disagreeing, just want to understand the reasoning...
Don

cladking · September 19, 2005 8:20AM

<< Clad,
Why do you think a silver price increase would be over a short timeframe? Not disagreeing, just want to understand the reasoning...
Don >>

Because there are so few believers. It's the nature of the beast when when few people believe it's possible.

roadrunner · September 19, 2005 10:25AM

As implausible as it may seem to most here, I think both gold and silver will eclipse their previous high numbers (not-inflation adjusted) within 3-10 years. I don't see how it could be otherwise.
Cycles are cycles and we just finished a 20 year down cycle for commodities brought to you by Volcker's FED policy way back in 1979. It's time for a long up cycle on commodities. Plenty can happen.

That means $875 gold and $50 silver.

roadrunner

JoesMaName · September 19, 2005 10:37AM

<< ...

That means $875 gold and $50 silver.

roadrunner >>

I agree that could happen but how much will a loaf of bread be? My guess is $10

roadrunner · September 19, 2005 10:46AM

I don't expect the loaf of bread to be $10 by that time. Bread hasn't been that inflationary of a product. But if you consider OJ, sugar, coffee, soy, milk, and other staples, those could be up quite a bit. I still think the PM's will be outpace them exponentially at some point when real mania and panic buying sets in. Loaves of bread will never be as desireable as tulips, nor experience exponential demand.

What was the price of bread, tuna fish, etc. back in 1980? Not too bad as I recall. It was oil, gas, PM's, and other commodities. I've never forgiven Nabisco for deflating the size of Chips Ahoy cookies however. That was truly deflationary even if they doubled the price since then. Those cookies held their value better than gold!

OK, let's say gold and silver hit those prices. Bread too at $10. If you knew that was coming what would you do? It doesn't matter if you wish it or not. If you have an option to pick the best course for yourself as no govt agency will do it for you, then you go with your best shot. PM's and bread will go where they will. Where do you want to be if they get there? Either in bread stocks (Wonder or Arnold's) or in PM's.......... (oil, gas, timber, water aren't bad choices either).

roadrunner

JoesMaName · September 19, 2005 11:50AM

I pretty much agree roaderunner - now if I could just figure out a way to hoard gas and oil.....

CardsFan · September 19, 2005 12:01PM

Don't forget Platinum it's on the rise too.

cladking · September 19, 2005 12:12PM

<< Don't forget Platinum it's on the rise too. >>

The big winner today was copper. This probably held silver back since most silver production is a byproduct of copper production.

AJ2525 · September 19, 2005 12:16PM

I am told there is a small amount of silver used in flat screen monitors.

Another interesting item on silver is its inherent anti-germ properties. You all thought silverware used silver to show off how rich people were. Since germ are figuring out a way to become resistant to the microban stuff but so far as I know germs haven't been able to beat silver, silver is a choice to get used.

I think I'll go get some more halves from the bank and see if I can "mine" me some more silver!

CardsFan · September 19, 2005 1:12PM

<< This probably held silver back since most silver production is a byproduct of copper production. >>

Cladking, can you explain this? Would they not move together?
just curious thanks

cladking · September 19, 2005 1:24PM

<< 

<< This probably held silver back since most silver production is a byproduct of copper production. >>

Cladking, can you explain this? Would they not move together?
just curious thanks >>

Silver production is a small part of the revenue for copper miners even though it is
the largest source for silver. This means things that are good for copper production
(such as higher prices) are a drag on silver prices.

100proof1957 · September 19, 2005 2:11PM

Was not silver about 8.63 April of last year ?

oreville · September 19, 2005 2:57PM

AJ2525:

<<<<<<<You all thought silverware used silver to show off how rich people were. Since germ are figuring out a way to become resistant to the microban stuff but so far as I know germs haven't been able to beat silver, silver is a choice to get used.>>>>>>>>

Most interesting--------------I had forgotten that. So I should attempt to use silver goblets from the back of my china closet too? It is beginning to make a lot of sense.

But doesn't sterling silver also contain copper? Good or bad? Also possible lead?

Just curious.

Nocerino18 · September 19, 2005 3:17PM

I love Gold.

SFDukie · September 20, 2005 11:17AM

<< AJ2525:

<<<<<<<You all thought silverware used silver to show off how rich people were. Since germ are figuring out a way to become resistant to the microban stuff but so far as I know germs haven't been able to beat silver, silver is a choice to get used.>>>>>>>>

Most interesting--------------I had forgotten that. So I should attempt to use silver goblets from the back of my china closet too? It is beginning to make a lot of sense.

But doesn't sterling silver also contain copper? Good or bad? Also possible lead?

Just curious. >>

Sterling has to be 92.5% silver. The remaining 7.5% is usually, but not necessarily, copper. I don't think most sterling has significant lead.
Don

ttown · September 20, 2005 11:54AM

Ok here’s something to consider on silver and why I still like this metal. It expands on “Cladkings” comments.

Gold is mined strictly for the Gold. This is not so for silver unless a very rich vain in discovered. Silver has been running a deficit for a decade but it is usually a by-product of mining used in industrial metals (ie: copper, zinc, etc). As demand for these metals drop off due to a recession Silver coming into the market will really drop. You may argue well silver will too and that is a valid point but Silver like Gold has been used as a hedge since ancient times. People don’t hoard copper or zinc and that’s the difference…...Hedge Demand of those that can’t afford Gold at sky rocket prices. It's the poor mans gold and always has been in tough times backed by history. Right or wrong Gold and Silver is understood and valued as a hedge here and across the world. JMO

SFDukie · September 20, 2005 11:59AM

Is there a consensus on why it rose so abruptly in 1998?
Thanks,
Don

garsmith · September 20, 2005 3:11PM

I looks like Monday at 3am was the best time to buy silver and monday a noon was the best time to sell.

timrutnat · September 21, 2005 12:13AM

I like silver because the US government does not have a stock pile anymore and it's my understanding that the Chinese won't be supplying as much (two huge sources of supply gone). Where will the silver come from to supply the deficit going forward? And, at the current price it's just plain dirt cheap. When I hold up a silver eagle that I paid less than $9 for, I see true value.

roadrunner · September 21, 2005 11:24AM

If you look across the world's developed countries, the US public stands nearly alone with a total disregard for the value of gold.
Not so for countries in Europe and Asia for example. They've been through currency debasement to understand gold's value. The average US citizen thinks that inflation is an elixer for continued growth and improved lifestyles....and of course that gold is a barbarous and useless relic of the past (but then why do central banks covet it and keep their inventories totally secret??).

Silver is looked upon almost the same way. And after 25 years of credit binging it's not hard to understand why your average 30 or 40 something think that 4 bedroom homes, an SUV, and unlimited Refi's will go on forever. The world's govt's have set up the people for a nasty fall. And to ensure they pay up, have instituted new bankruptcy laws in a nick of time.

roadrunner

Jdurg · September 21, 2005 12:55PM

I'm still kicking myself for not buying the two ounces of Rhodium I was offered about two years ago when it was down at around $800 an ounce. I just didn't have the money to spare. Now I look at the price of Rhodium per ounce and I weep. heh.

Conder101 · September 21, 2005 10:34PM

<< The problem I have with investing in gold is that less then 100 years ago you could take your 20 silver dollars to a bank and exchange it for a $20 ounce of gold and this ratio had been around quite a while. >>

Which ratio? The coinage ratio of 15 oz of silver to one of gold, or since the silver in each of those dollars was only worth about 50 cents, the metal value ratio of 30 to 1?

The Heck w/Gold Look at Silver...

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