Just for clarity, here is what I said about what I thought it would grade, excluding the "wink" comment made after Lucybop posted her coin
"It is a nice coin, based on your pics it just looks a little softly struck to 66, it could 65 . I will bet you that it wont't 66 . Grading from pics is always tough."
Get Eric to get a better pic and we will talk about the coins merits. Based upon your original post and pic I still feel it won't make 66. Your the one who says the pic stinks, so you obviously have the "edge" if you can grade.
If the $10 is so important to you, you have a bet on it not getting a 65 at PCGS.
Next time you ooze out and say a coin will get X grade, it would be nice to see some backbone and stand by it.
<< <i>Get Eric to get a better pic and we will talk about the coins merits. Based upon your original post and pic I still feel it won't make 65. Your the one who says the pic stinks, so you obviously have the "edge" if you can grade. >>
said it had a 90% CHANCE, not certainty....the only nonsense is you misquoting me Sunnywood.
A 90% chance of going MS66 means precisely that 9 out of 10 times the coin will return a 66. That is a powerful statement. Most MS67's won't even come back a 66 at 90% of the time! You have to give the TPG's an error of at least 2 points 80% of the time. Even the best scores on the grading test were only about 85%. Which means no one single person that participated in the testing over the past 2 years predicted PCGS with 90% certainty. To me, a lock MS66 would be a coin that would come back MS66 at least 8 out of 10 times. That leaves 2 times for PCGS/NGC variability.
I won't rule out that this coin could go MS66. Anything is possible. It would have a better chance at NGC. The toning on it if not AT, is classic secondary toning from a previous dipping (or two). So for starters the toning is already burnt down a degree or more. That will really hurt an MS66 shot. The luster appears to fade somewhat between the devices and fields...not a good sign. To me, common Morgans like this are more luster and marks driven than strike. But getting an MS66 on less than a full strike will be tough. Some of the cleanest O mints with weak breast feathers just won't go above MS65.
A more realistic bet might be that the coin would make MS66 on 1-2 of 10 submissions.... a shot coin. MS66's tend to be made in groups of coins, orginal rolls, or min grade batches. Single coins have the odds stacked against them as there is nothing to compare against. The graders usually err to the conservative side. Just my 2 cents.
'Setup' coins are bull****. You have no guarantee that the graders will grade your coins in the order they are listed on your submission form. You are also making the assumption that the grade they give coin #1 will influence the grade they assign coin #2. These ideas are the numismatic equivalent of the Art Bell show.
I sent a Walker in for a regrade in a 5 holder and it came back in a 6 holder. Why? Because they screwed up the first time and it was a really nice coin. I think 90% of the time, they get it right.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
Ok whatever, I'm obviously totally ignorant when it comes to coins. At this point, I could care less what all you "experts" have to say, just submit the damn coin and lets see what happens.
Setup coins and multiple coin submissions DO give an edge in some (or most) situations. Proven fact by the experience of many, many crack out players. And I've discussed this point at length with one of the best graders/minds in the coin business (35 years experience). It definitely happens and it definitely can give one an edge. No need to go into the excruciating details here for the 30th time. It's been hashed out here before. But I will admit that a setup coin for a fugly looking coin is a stretch.
Just take a look at the number of stupidly graded coins with high serial numbers (the last 3 digits at NGC for example). Single coins have to stand on their own merits and be pretty much no brainer coins for the grade. If you have a liner going in, it's always best to have it be compared to an average coin that is the under-grade. And while the graders don't have to look at the coins in order what does human nature tend to do to us?
I will have to go with the minority also. I think the coin will be returned with no grade. I just dont see any life in that coin and I also think it is AT. It takes more than just a clean cheek to make a 66.
Setup coins and multiple coin submissions DO give an edge in some (or most) situations. Proven fact by the experience of many, many crack out players
With no disrespect intended, while people who submit more coins have a greater chance of getting upgrades due to sheer numbers, I don't care with whom you spoke, for every example you can provide of a successful upgrade, you can find a thread posted by some of the best in the business on this forum which detailed attempted upgrade / crossover horror stories.
If you want to believe setup coins are beneficial, you're certainly entitled to your opinion, but please don't state this as a fact, because you cannot prove it to be so.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
"There are two types of people in the world. Those that do the work and those that take the credit. Try to be in the first group, there is less competition there" - Ghandi
Looks decent but probably too much field chatter to lock at 66.
If you want to believe setup coins are beneficial, you're certainly entitled to your opinion, but please don't state this as a fact, because you cannot prove it to be so.
I do want to believe this and my own personal experiences with hundreds of submissions (net value of over $500,000) proved that out in the 1988-1990 market. Today it is much tougher because the services themselves are less expert and less consistent than the graders they had in the late 1980's. The best graders worked at the services a few weeks each year each year and then went back to their coin businesses. The quality difference is night and day. My total submissions were small potatoes compared to the crackers that submitted millions of bucks a year. There is of course never a guarantee in a setup but there is ZERO doubt in my experience that it gives you a slight edge over not doing it. It may only make the odds 55-45 or 52-48 in your favor rather than 50-50. But it helps. The horror stories about crack outs are more a statement on the inability of the TPG's to be consistent and skillfull than the benefit of the setup coins. If you don't think that sending in 4 average MS65 Morgans followed by a killer 65++ is not in your favor, then there's not much I can do to change your opinion. Whether those coins come back 64,64,64,65 or 65,65,65,66 is dependant on the TPG consistency. But if you send in the top coin by itself, or with a bunch of MS63's or with commems or type coins, chances are in won't gather the MS66 grade as often.
TDN, anablep and robertpr have changed their opinions....anyone else want to retract their negative statements about the coin? Do any past posters still thinK this coin is AT?
I don't think so. He said 90% shot at 6. Even with the image I posted, there were people calling it a 3, 4 or AT. He wagered it would come back as a 5.
<< <i>I thought his initial claim was that it should go 66- so it sounds to me like he just set a bunch of people up to take their money........ >>
I wasn't trying to set anyone up, Just defending myself from people saying it was lowgrade. It is no secret on the boards that I can"t image a toned coin. I posted in this thread that the photo sucked and didn't show the true image over 6 times!!!!
condolences to those who fell for the bait and switch, and since the coin is obviously undergraded as a 65, and since it should upgrade to 66 the next 9 times it is submitted, will it be cracked and sent in to be graded "properly?"
As quoted, this coin had a "90% chance of going MS66." And in the slab game that is about as certain as one can get.
The free try has been used up. So now resubmit the coin 9 more times. If it doesn't come back as MS66 the next 9 times in a row (90% chance of MS66), then you were inaccurate on your intial statement. That's my 2 cents. After each resubmit you can drop it another 10% if it doesn't go 66. We can then assess it as having a 80% chance of MS66, then 70%, etc. If it doesn't ever come back as 66 on 10 tries, it will have a achieved a zero chance of MS66. If it comes back as MS66 once out of 10, it had a 10% chance of coming back MS66. Those are the "real" numbers.
Having it nailed NT and 65, and absolutely not getting a "questionable color" BB isn't the same thing. We're dealing with graders here! I'm glad he got the 65 and didn't have to dip it to get the correct grade. The same can not be said of a 78S I had with similar color, but which BB'd and is now dipped white in a PCGS 65 holder. I'll have to get out the boiled eggs to get it retoned in the holder--
<< <i>I can see it is not AT, but just because it is in a slab is can't be AT? I didn't know that.
Billy >>
Billy, I had that coin here buck naked. It is 100% NT, there is no question about it. >>
Hi Eric, yes I know and agree (thats twice now BTW..) As I said, I know it is NOT AT (I can see it and I read that you shot it "buck naked"). I was saying that thinking because something is in a slab it CAN'T be AT is a mistake IMHO.
<< <i>Having it nailed NT and 65, and absolutely not getting a "questionable color" BB isn't the same thing. We're dealing with graders here! I'm glad he got the 65 and didn't have to dip it to get the correct grade. The same can not be said of a 78S I had with similar color, but which BB'd and is now dipped white in a PCGS 65 holder. I'll have to get out the boiled eggs to get it retoned in the holder-- >>
<< <i>I would think it would be appropriate at this time to mention who was following up with their "bets". >>
Greg, you are a sore loser!! Please stop PMing me the negative comments and name calling. All I ask was for you to send the $10 to Ken's 4th of July charity auction. Ken...Please PM your mailing address to Greg.
Greg stop the harassing PM's.
I don't expect anyone to post that they were wrong........egos are too big.
Comments
"It is a nice coin, based on your pics it just looks a little softly struck to 66, it could 65 . I will bet you that it wont't 66 . Grading from pics is always tough."
Get Eric to get a better pic and we will talk about the coins merits. Based upon your original post and pic I still feel it won't make 66. Your the one who says the pic stinks, so you obviously have the "edge" if you can grade.
If the $10 is so important to you, you have a bet on it not getting a 65 at PCGS.
Next time you ooze out and say a coin will get X grade, it would be nice to see some backbone and stand by it.
Greg
<< <i>Get Eric to get a better pic and we will talk about the coins merits. Based upon your original post and pic I still feel it won't make 65. Your the one who says the pic stinks, so you obviously have the "edge" if you can grade. >>
Bingo Greg Bingo!
A 90% chance of going MS66 means precisely that 9 out of 10 times the coin will return a 66. That is a powerful statement. Most MS67's won't even come back a 66 at 90% of the time! You have to give the TPG's an error of at least 2 points 80% of the time. Even the best scores on the grading test were only about 85%. Which means no one single person that participated in the testing over the past 2 years predicted PCGS with 90% certainty. To me, a lock MS66 would be a coin that would come back MS66 at least 8 out of 10 times. That leaves 2 times for PCGS/NGC variability.
I won't rule out that this coin could go MS66. Anything is possible.
It would have a better chance at NGC. The toning on it if not AT, is classic secondary toning from a previous dipping (or two). So for starters the toning is already burnt down a degree or more. That will really hurt an MS66 shot. The luster appears to fade somewhat between the devices and fields...not a good sign. To me, common Morgans like this are more luster and marks driven than strike. But getting an MS66 on less than a full strike will be tough. Some of the cleanest O mints with weak breast feathers just won't go above MS65.
A more realistic bet might be that the coin would make MS66 on 1-2 of 10 submissions.... a shot coin. MS66's tend to be made in groups of coins, orginal rolls, or min grade batches. Single coins have the odds stacked against them as there is nothing to compare against.
The graders usually err to the conservative side. Just my 2 cents.
roadrunner
<< <i>If the $10 is so important to you, you have a bet on it not getting a 65 at PCGS. >>
OK it's a bet.
I sent a Walker in for a regrade in a 5 holder and it came back in a 6 holder. Why? Because they screwed up the first time and it was a really nice coin. I think 90% of the time, they get it right.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Just take a look at the number of stupidly graded coins with high serial numbers (the last 3 digits at NGC for example). Single coins have to stand on their own merits and be pretty much no brainer coins for the grade. If you have a liner going in, it's always best to have it be compared to an average coin that is the under-grade. And while the graders don't have to look at the coins in order what does human nature tend to do to us?
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Mike
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
*** Visit Mike De Falco's NEW Coin Talk Blog! ***
Looks like a lock 65, shot-66, but with all the comments on PCGS tightening, who knows?
Is the haze to the left of the eagle's wing on a plastic holder, or is it on the coin? I am assuming it is on a holder.
<< <i>Anyone want to change their opinions?
>>
Nope, i still think a link to the auction might be interesting!
<< <i>Nope, i still think a link to the auction might be interesting! >>
Sorry Zenny a link might be interesting to you, but not to me. I'm keeping this seller to myself.
With no disrespect intended, while people who submit more coins have a greater chance of getting upgrades due to sheer numbers, I don't care with whom you spoke, for every example you can provide of a successful upgrade, you can find a thread posted by some of the best in the business on this forum which detailed attempted upgrade / crossover horror stories.
If you want to believe setup coins are beneficial, you're certainly entitled to your opinion, but please don't state this as a fact, because you cannot prove it to be so.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I think we've learned something about the power of a decent picture. Its a shame we can't get this quality all the time on ebay.
K6AZ: your skills are awesome...
"Bongo hurtles along the rain soaked highway of life on underinflated bald retread tires."
~Wayne
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
<< <i>Anyone want to change their opinions?
Much better image but still not a 66.
<< <i>Much better image but still not a 66. >>
Well, we will know for sure in six to eight weeks. The coin is on the way to PCGS.
If you want to believe setup coins are beneficial, you're certainly entitled to your opinion, but please don't state this as a fact, because you cannot prove it to be so.
I do want to believe this and my own personal experiences with hundreds of submissions (net value of over $500,000) proved that out in the 1988-1990 market. Today it is much tougher because the services themselves are less expert and less consistent than the graders they had in the late 1980's. The best graders worked at the services a few weeks each year each year and then went back to their coin businesses. The quality difference is night and day.
My total submissions were small potatoes compared to the crackers that submitted millions of bucks a year. There is of course never a guarantee in a setup but there is ZERO doubt in my experience that it gives you a slight edge over not doing it. It may only make the odds 55-45 or 52-48 in your favor rather than 50-50. But it helps.
The horror stories about crack outs are more a statement on the inability of the TPG's to be consistent and skillfull than the benefit of the setup coins. If you don't think that sending in 4 average MS65 Morgans followed by a killer 65++ is not in your favor, then there's not much I can do to change your opinion. Whether those coins come back 64,64,64,65 or 65,65,65,66 is dependant on the TPG consistency. But if you send in the top coin by itself, or with a bunch of MS63's or with commems or type coins, chances are in won't gather the MS66 grade as often.
roadrunner
Oh, and I think it's a 65.
-Daniel
-Aristotle
Dum loquimur fugerit invida aetas. Carpe diem quam minimum credula postero.
-Horace
LINE # CERT # COIN DATE DENOMINATION VARIETY COUNTRY GRADE
2 60183421 1881-S S$1 USA MS65
Greg
<< <i>I thought his initial claim was that it should go 66- so it sounds to me like he just set a bunch of people up to take their money........ >>
I wasn't trying to set anyone up, Just defending myself from people saying it was lowgrade. It is no secret on the boards that I can"t image a toned coin. I posted in this thread that the photo sucked and didn't show the true image over 6 times!!!!
Please reread this thread.
Greg
z
Billy
<< <i>I can see it is not AT, but just because it is in a slab is can't be AT? I didn't know that.
Billy >>
Billy, I had that coin here buck naked. It is 100% NT, there is no question about it.
And in the slab game that is about as certain as one can get.
The free try has been used up. So now resubmit the coin 9 more times. If it doesn't come back as MS66 the next 9 times in a row
(90% chance of MS66), then you were inaccurate on your intial statement. That's my 2 cents. After each resubmit you can drop it another 10% if it doesn't go 66. We can then assess it as having a 80% chance of MS66, then 70%, etc. If it doesn't ever come back as 66 on 10 tries, it will have a achieved a zero chance of MS66. If it comes back as MS66 once out of 10, it had a 10% chance of coming back MS66. Those are the "real" numbers.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>I can see it is not AT, but just because it is in a slab is can't be AT? I didn't know that.
Billy >>
Billy, I had that coin here buck naked. It is 100% NT, there is no question about it. >>
Hi Eric,
yes I know and agree (thats twice now BTW..) As I said, I know it is NOT AT (I can see it and I read that you shot it "buck naked"). I was saying that thinking because something is in a slab it CAN'T be AT is a mistake IMHO.
Best wishes,
Billy
<< <i>Having it nailed NT and 65, and absolutely not getting a "questionable color" BB isn't the same thing. We're dealing with graders here! I'm glad he got the 65 and didn't have to dip it to get the correct grade. The same can not be said of a 78S I had with similar color, but which BB'd and is now dipped white in a PCGS 65 holder. I'll have to get out the boiled eggs to get it retoned in the holder--
COINS CAN TONE IN HOLDERS???
Billy
NoEbayAuctionsForNow
Billy
<< <i>I would think it would be appropriate at this time to mention who was following up with their "bets". >>
Greg, you are a sore loser!! Please stop PMing me the negative comments and name calling. All I ask was for you to send the $10 to Ken's 4th of July charity auction.
Ken...Please PM your mailing address to Greg.
Greg stop the harassing PM's.
I don't expect anyone to post that they were wrong........egos are too big.