Why the run of 1961 PSA 8 on eBay?
Buccaneer
Posts: 1,794 ✭✭
As I usually do once a week, I search the 1960-1965 PSA Graded category on eBay for cards for my sets. As of a few minutes ago, here were the quantities for the years/grades I searched for:
1963 PSA 7 - 71
1963 PSA 7 - 84
1963 PSA 8 - 90
1964 PSA 7 - 95
1965 PSA 8 - 149
1964 PSA 8 - 168
1961 PSA 7 - 191
1961 PSA 8 - 418 !!!
I understand it's a matter of timing of catching those selling off sets but man, isn't this like market dumping or something? Is the demand keeping up with such supplies?
1963 PSA 7 - 71
1963 PSA 7 - 84
1963 PSA 8 - 90
1964 PSA 7 - 95
1965 PSA 8 - 149
1964 PSA 8 - 168
1961 PSA 7 - 191
1961 PSA 8 - 418 !!!
I understand it's a matter of timing of catching those selling off sets but man, isn't this like market dumping or something? Is the demand keeping up with such supplies?
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Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
However, I am seriously thinking about quiting this set - except that I will complete and keep the registered All-Stars set. Even with 23% complete and 2/3 of them in NM raw, it's a tough set to fully complete with so many stars and high# cards. But it looks like I'll wait until later to sell, if I do.
I don't believe the large quantity of 1961 Topps 8's is due to people selling off their sets, but rather to an increase in the number graded. These cards are seemingly "coming out of the woodwork"!!!! I don't track the population numbers too closely but for some cards I have seen the number of 8's double over the past year and the number of 9's double, triple or increase by even more!!! Cards that were thought to be one-of-a-kind are turning out to be several-of-a-kind. (But such is the blessing, or curse, of ebay!)
Several ebay sellers (highgradecards10, cardmrchnt6ta4, dslsports, etc.) have been listing plenty of extremely nice 8's and 9's lately.
Where will it all end? A few PSA 8's of one of the toughest cards in the set, the World Series Game 5 card, turned up on ebay in March and they each sold for right around $500. Just a week or so after that a 9 appeared and went for $464... less than either of the 8's!!! As I write this ANOTHER 9 is up for bid and just closed at $456 and was won by the winner of one of the 8's from a few weeks ago! [Right now the pop on this card shows 19 8's and 8 9's .... if the trend continues soon there may be more 9's than 8's!!!]
I guess what I'm struggling with is the meaning of "Low Pop" and also just how many of these cards are out there yet to be graded? There might be hundreds of collectors who love this set, or there might even be thousands! If the number of graded set collectors grew to 500 or so for this set then a psa 8 common with a pop of 85 would be considered low! Will we ever see that day?
Someone earlier in the thread pointed out that 1961 generated alot of interest because of the home run record, which is true, but I also believe that the 61 set is probably one of the most popular because of the clean and classic design of the cards. The style is truely timeless and is unlike other cards of that era in that the cards aren't overly colored with the pink's, fuschia's and lime green's as in 59 or 60 for example.
As Jay pointed out, now is a good time to be buying rather than selling! With so many quality cards out there a set can be put together at a fraction of what it cost just a few years ago! What is axiom for stocks? "Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying".... something like that! At any rate, its probably a good time for collectors but not necessarily so good for investors.
Some time ago, Rob McBride had a post here that showed the number and percentage increase of the various grades in this set from year to year. I think plenty of folks would be interested in seeing data like that again.... Rob...Is it available?
Happy Collecting!
Tom
I found your post very interesting. I'm getting back into this after a 40+ year break. I had mainly 1962 Topps as a kid (you know, my mom threw 'em out when I went to college, yada, yada, yada), but now I like both '61 and '63 both better than '62. Be that as it may, I read a lot about "investment" versus "collecting," on this forum, but I don't think those two ideas are as distinct as some would believe. So much of collecting is owning an item that has monetary worth. If it has emotional benefit above that, so much the better, but putting a monetary value on it enhances that emotional benefit. IMO. What makes a high grade so desirable is that there are less of them. I look on both my '61 and '63 sets as items that will not devalue, since they came before the (let's say) inexhaustable printing of cards which came later, after 1969 or after (let's say) 1988. So, there are a limited number of '61s, what is the explanation for so many coming on the market at this time? I have thought that the days of suddenly finding a cache of old baseball cards has ended. Are you saying that the ebay phenomena is pulling even more out of "the woodwork?" I think that the ebay phenomena is also creating a whole new bunch of collectors who don't have the knowledge or time that they would have had without the Internet. I guess, my question would be: "Do you see the prices of '61s staying the same, increasing or decreasing?
LateBloomer/Mac: Nice posts.
<< <i>Do you see the prices of '61s staying the same, increasing or decreasing? >>
Gosh, if I only knew the answer to that!!! But honestly I don't think anyone really knows about prices regardless of what type of commodity we're talking about. There are so many factors including not only supply and demand for the cards themselves but factors totally unrelated to collecting. In general over the short term I have a 'gut feeling' that prices will continue to drift lower and stabilize at some point. Over the long term I suppose it really depends on how many mint cards are still out there waiting to be graded.
In the meantime, however, I'm going to continue my collection and continue enjoying it because as you pointed out the cards have sentimental worth that isn't easily quantified.
Kennylow - The Berra MVP card is a short print card and the current pop shows 72 8's and 11 Higher
The Rizzuto MVP cards pop shows 48 8's and 4 Higher
Here's how they currently stack up vs. the other MVP cards in the set:
479 JIM KONSTANTY 43 8 2 Higher
471 PHIL RIZZUTO 48 8 4 Higher
485 ERNIE BANKS 56 8 4 Higher
486 DICK GROAT 56 8 4 Higher
473 BOBBY SHANTZ 64 8 2 Higher
472 YOGI BERRA 75 8 11 Higher
480 ROY CAMPANELLA 75 8 7 Higher
481 HANK SAUER 80 8 5 Higher
476 JACKIE JENSEN 81 8 7 Higher
474 AL ROSEN 83 8 9 Higher
477 NELLIE FOX 91 8 14 Higher
483 DON NEWCOMBE 93 8 11 Higher
482 WILLIE MAYS 124 8 19 Higher
478 ROGER MARIS 148 8 13 Higher
484 HANK AARON 190 8 28 Higher
475 MICKEY MANTLE 209 8 25 Higher
So yes, they are a couple of the tougher MVP cards to obtain in high grade. 8's for either have been selling on ebay in the $100-$160 range depending on centering and background quality. Personally I believe the Berra card is in higher demand and its more difficult to obtain a well-centered example.
Buccaneer - Good luck with your ebay sales!
<< <i>I don't think anyone really knows about prices regardless of what type of commodity we're talking about. >>
Maybe we should figure out a way to sell puts and calls on baseball cards.
The percent of 9's and 10's has gone up significantly in the past 9 months. Plus the 8's kep coming. Demand has not kept up with supply, and prices have been dropping. as others have noted. My personal opinion is that the prices have reached a point where they won't drop much more, because it is not profitable to submit 8's to sell, except the tough ones, of which there are fewer and fewer.
The recent number of cards you saw on Ebay was a result of Steve Hart with bbcard exchange evidently grading a complete set of very nice raw cards. Hw received quite a few 9's, and most of the rest 8's, with a scattering of 7's.
Mastro has a complete set with 242 PSA 9's up thsi week, and 707 is selling Garte's set on Ebay closing Saturday, I believe. No one has bid with the opening price just over $18,000. It is mostly a PSA 8 set, but most of the high demand low pop 8's are qualified, or in PSA 7.
It seems to me like a good time to be collecting the set in PSA 7 or 8.
By the way, does your assessment includes the All-Star cards as well?
Stingray
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."