What factors do you think cause threads to move along in one direction only and what causes them to turn in the other direction, either abruptly or slowly?
I wonder how much different the answers would have been if Mark had instead asked "What factors do you think cause MARKETS to move along in one direction only and what causes them to turn in the other direction, either abruptly or slowly?"
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<<"I don't have to fluff my opinions with a "JMHO!" Just my honest opinion is what I always give, not just sometimes. You also have the people that fluff their opinion with a statement of "To be perfectly honest!" Uhmmm, are there times when you aren't??">>
Those who use JHMO are just trying to make sure that you/us/we/etc. understand that what is being offered is indeed an opinion and not a fact. The two are oftimes confused and many times not the same. The "to be perfectly honest" is mostly a figure of speech sorta thing and not necessarily a reflection of the poster's honesty or dishonesty.
Thanks to each of you for your diverse, thoughtful and interesting replies.
When I started this thread, I had serious doubts as to whether more than a few forum members would reply. Your feedback has been a most pleasant surprise.
I feel that most people who first start posting here tend to "Go With The Flow". That's normal human nature. They have very little experience in any area of collecting so pretty much reading and learning at this time. Will post occasinally, and usually, in agreement with the "Experts", afraid of getting Flamed? But as their experience and knowledge grows so do their number of post's and opinions in certain area's. Knowledge and Experience breeds familiarity. As the months and years go on we start to feel more like part of the Group or Team here. Lee
Those who use JHMO are just trying to make sure that you/us/we/etc. understand that what is being offered is indeed an opinion and not a fact. The two are oftimes confused and many times not the same. The "to be perfectly honest" is mostly a figure of speech sorta thing and not necessarily a reflection of the poster's honesty or dishonesty.
Sometimes it is just someone exhibiting humilty.....
The one comment I'll make about the herd mentality is that one can easily overpay for a so-called classic coin, and you will have a flock of people telling you where you went wrong. Quite often these comments are honest and helpful.
BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for a modern coin. All you need to do is to get the coin in a PCGS holder with a high grading number on it, and you are IN. The coin in the holder might be overgraded or going bad in the holder, but according to modern herd it is absolutely impossible to pay too much for a modern coin.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
It's hard to communicate exactly what you mean on a message board. Same thing with PM's and e-mails. It lacks the emphasis that you would put on it if you were speaking to another person in person.
So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was.
<< <i>It's hard to communicate exactly what you mean on a message board. Same thing with PM's and e-mails. It lacks the emphasis that you would put on it if you were speaking to another person in person.
So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was. >>
Thanks Doug. I couldn't have said (written) it better myself.
<< It's hard to communicate exactly what you mean on a message board. Same thing with PM's and e-mails. It lacks the emphasis that you would put on it if you were speaking to another person in person.
So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was. >>
<< <i>So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was. >>
Doug, as one of the ones who spoke up on that subject, I will address your above comment:
While there might not have been any accusations directly against the seller, more than one person commented that the coin looked to have been cleaned. And, based on the (initial small) images, as well as the later larger ones, I saw no evidence of that so I spoke up.
Additionally, I believe that the images were produced by a scanner, which tends to make coins look less lustrous than they really are. Based on the circumstances, it seemed unfair to call the coin cleaned - perhaps it was, but if so, I don't think anyone could tell that from the images presented.
YOU know that it's too much money, Russ, but if someone pays it, who is to say that really IS too much money? Such is the logic of the herd. Moooooo!!!
See somebody pay a price, tell the newbies to run like lemmings toward the abyss. That's the logic or illogic.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
<< <i>So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was. >>
Doug, as one of the ones who spoke up on that subject, I will address your above comment:
While there might not have been any accusations directly against the seller, more than one person commented that the coin looked to have been cleaned. And, based on the (initial small) images, as well as the later larger ones, I saw no evidence of that so I spoke up.
Additionally, I believe that the images were produced by a scanner, which tends to make coins look less lustrous than they really are. Based on the circumstances, it seemed unfair to call the coin cleaned - perhaps it was, but if so, I don't think anyone could tell that from the images presented. >>
Nothing was wrong with your comments, and you were answering the question, not dragging DLRC or PCGS's reputations into the mix, like some others did. (I agree with you both ways on that thread -- scanners stink for luster, and I have seen many lightly cleaned dollars in PCGS holders. )
<< <i>The one comment I'll make about the herd mentality is that one can easily overpay for a so-called classic coin, and you will have a flock of people telling you where you went wrong. Quite often these comments are honest and helpful.
BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for a modern coin. All you need to do is to get the coin in a PCGS holder with a high grading number on it, and you are IN. The coin in the holder might be overgraded or going bad in the holder, but according to modern herd it is absolutely impossible to pay too much for a modern coin. >>
I haven't seen this. Not only do I disagree with the premise but also tend to disagree with the conclusions. Certainly there is at least one thread that would seem to support this conclusion if read in a vacuum but this is hardly the way the typical modern bashing thread begins. Usually it comes out of a blue sky and can affect any thread. Often it will start just because someone says he has graded or purchased a rare or a conditionally rare modern. Then there follows discussion about the intelligence and emotional stability of anyone who would pay "moon mon- ey" for any modern coin.
In any case it should be remembered that most mint state moderns are far easier to grade and are graded far more consistently than any of the 19th century coins. This is true simply because very few moderns have much value in circulated condi- tion or the lower ranges of unc. Modern coins haven't been around for centuries picking up many different types of surface conditions. If a modern appears at arms lenght to be unc then it's a virtual certainty that it is.
Obviously one can not only pay too much for a modern but even the market can over- value it. Those who do their homework and learn something about the coins they collect can resist most of these latter problems.
As far as the herd mentality and moderns, it is still the prevalent opinion in the hobby that these coins are crap. Until this changes One probably need not worry about mar- ket forces and can spend their energy on more productive concerns.
I listen to your voice like it was music, [ y o u ' r e ] the song I want to know.
I'd give you the world, just because...
Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ... and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
<< BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for modern coin. >> ...
Click here.
... >>
Wow! What eye appeal! >>
No question that coin is a bonified Monster DCAM that is head and shoulders above the vast majority of 1970-S Proof Kennedys. However, current market on these in PR69DCAM is around $400, and has been trending downward. Accounting for the extraordinary nature of this particular example, I could see $750 to $800 as reasonable, but not the over $1200 it sold for.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
You're not getting me on your psychiatrist's couch. How long did you practice before you morphed into a coin dealer/stream of consciousness forum poster?
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>You're not getting me on your psychiatrist's couch. How long did you practice before you morphed into a coin dealer/stream of consciousness forum poster? >>
<< <i>You're not getting me on your psychiatrist's couch. How long did you practice before you morphed into a coin dealer/stream of consciousness forum poster? >>
Pharmer, relax and put your feet up for a spell. >>
<< <i>So just keeping count- there's a "classic herd", a "modern herd", and an "in-crowd herd".....
I prefer to run with the "abs-herd". >>
Outstanding pun!
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
The AT/NT threads always create a HERD. I've stopped giving the REASONS why I think various dollars may be AT or NT. I just went to the TCCS society meeting (Balt.) for the first time and was suprised that on close examination, ALL the NT coins WERE in fact NT in my opinion. I've come to the conclusion that the herd here really hasn't taken the time to look at 100's of NT coins at top dealers/clubs, OR to learn the diagnostics as pointed out by many honest experts-- such as Bob Campbell and others. It's really not rocket science to tell. So to avoid arguements, I just ignor the posts and feel sad for the new owners of AT coins, and hope they'll take the time someday to learn.
My only points on the 93-S Morgan were: 1) I thought it was very unlikely to be in a PCGS holder AND be HARSHLY cleaned--as in whizzed (although I've certainly seen some lightly cleaned keys-- like several 89CC's-- in PCGS holders);
And, 2) that original whiter coins are especially hard to show luster-wise on a scanner like DLRC's--and no one can tell from the image, IMHO. The real point is to deal with an honest dealer with a good return policy so so can closely examine coins yourself. Somehow that got lost in the thread's many "opinions" on PCGS/DLRC.
Comments
I wonder how much different the answers would have been if Mark had instead asked "What factors do you think cause MARKETS to move along in one direction only and what causes them to turn in the other direction, either abruptly or slowly?"
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Those who use JHMO are just trying to make sure that you/us/we/etc. understand that what is being offered is indeed an opinion and not a fact. The two are oftimes confused and many times not the same. The "to be perfectly honest" is mostly a figure of speech sorta thing and not necessarily a reflection of the poster's honesty or dishonesty.
When I started this thread, I had serious doubts as to whether more than a few forum members would reply. Your feedback has been a most pleasant surprise.
<< <i>Confidence in the poster's opinion would be my guess why people do not add in.
If there has been substantial agreement, I do not normally post.
If I see an error, I most always post.
If I see incorrect conclusions, I would also post.
It depends on how much time that you can devote to an issue, as well.
Interesting topic.
How come no one else thinks so?? >>
OR...Getting their head ripped off!
Thank You
SilverDollar
Sometimes it is just someone exhibiting humilty.....
BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for a modern coin. All you need to do is to get the coin in a PCGS holder with a high grading number on it, and you are IN. The coin in the holder might be overgraded or going bad in the holder, but according to modern herd it is absolutely impossible to pay too much for a modern coin.
<< <i>I don't have to fluff my opinions with a "JMHO!" Just my honest opinion is what I always give >>
Actually, the "H" in the acronym stands for "humble", and you'll note that I also never use it.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for modern coin. >>
No it isn't.
Click here.
Russ, NCNE
It's hard to communicate exactly what you mean on a message board. Same thing with PM's and e-mails. It lacks the emphasis that you would put on it if you were speaking to another person in person.
So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was.
<< <i>It's hard to communicate exactly what you mean on a message board. Same thing with PM's and e-mails. It lacks the emphasis that you would put on it if you were speaking to another person in person.
So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was. >>
Thanks Doug. I couldn't have said (written) it better myself.
So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was. >>
That's exactly the point !!!!!!
<< <i>So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was. >>
Doug, as one of the ones who spoke up on that subject, I will address your above comment:
While there might not have been any accusations directly against the seller, more than one person commented that the coin looked to have been cleaned. And, based on the (initial small) images, as well as the later larger ones, I saw no evidence of that so I spoke up.
Additionally, I believe that the images were produced by a scanner, which tends to make coins look less lustrous than they really are. Based on the circumstances, it seemed unfair to call the coin cleaned - perhaps it was, but if so, I don't think anyone could tell that from the images presented.
<< <i>
<< <i>BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for modern coin. >>
No it isn't.
Click here.
Russ, NCNE >>
YOU know that it's too much money, Russ, but if someone pays it, who is to say that really IS too much money? Such is the logic of the herd. Moooooo!!!
See somebody pay a price, tell the newbies to run like lemmings toward the abyss. That's the logic or illogic.
<< <i>
<< <i>So, I think often times, things get misconstrued, like the thread about the 1893-s silver dollar. It was a nice coin in a PCGS holder sold by DLRC, a reputable seller. The question about cleaning was legitimate. Suddenly people were defending DLRC like accusations were being made. I didn't see any accusations in the post, and I didn't see any reason why anyone interpreted the thread in such a manner, except that they were reading more into it than there really was. >>
Doug, as one of the ones who spoke up on that subject, I will address your above comment:
While there might not have been any accusations directly against the seller, more than one person commented that the coin looked to have been cleaned. And, based on the (initial small) images, as well as the later larger ones, I saw no evidence of that so I spoke up.
Additionally, I believe that the images were produced by a scanner, which tends to make coins look less lustrous than they really are. Based on the circumstances, it seemed unfair to call the coin cleaned - perhaps it was, but if so, I don't think anyone could tell that from the images presented. >>
Nothing was wrong with your comments, and you were answering the question, not dragging DLRC or PCGS's reputations into the mix, like some others did. (I agree with you both ways on that thread -- scanners stink for luster, and I have seen many lightly cleaned dollars in PCGS holders. )
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>The one comment I'll make about the herd mentality is that one can easily overpay for a so-called classic coin, and you will have a flock of people telling you where you went wrong. Quite often these comments are honest and helpful.
BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for a modern coin. All you need to do is to get the coin in a PCGS holder with a high grading number on it, and you are IN. The coin in the holder might be overgraded or going bad in the holder, but according to modern herd it is absolutely impossible to pay too much for a modern coin. >>
I haven't seen this. Not only do I disagree with the premise but also tend to
disagree with the conclusions. Certainly there is at least one thread that would
seem to support this conclusion if read in a vacuum but this is hardly the way the
typical modern bashing thread begins. Usually it comes out of a blue sky and can
affect any thread. Often it will start just because someone says he has graded
or purchased a rare or a conditionally rare modern. Then there follows discussion
about the intelligence and emotional stability of anyone who would pay "moon mon-
ey" for any modern coin.
In any case it should be remembered that most mint state moderns are far easier
to grade and are graded far more consistently than any of the 19th century coins.
This is true simply because very few moderns have much value in circulated condi-
tion or the lower ranges of unc. Modern coins haven't been around for centuries
picking up many different types of surface conditions. If a modern appears at arms
lenght to be unc then it's a virtual certainty that it is.
Obviously one can not only pay too much for a modern but even the market can over-
value it. Those who do their homework and learn something about the coins they
collect can resist most of these latter problems.
As far as the herd mentality and moderns, it is still the prevalent opinion in the hobby
that these coins are crap. Until this changes One probably need not worry about mar-
ket forces and can spend their energy on more productive concerns.
<< <i>
<< <i>BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for modern coin. >>
...
Click here.
... >>
-g
I'd give you the world, just because...
Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ...
and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
<< <i><<
<< BUT it's absolutely impossible to overpay for modern coin. >>
...
Click here.
... >>
Wow! What eye appeal! >>
No question that coin is a bonified Monster DCAM that is head and shoulders above the vast majority of 1970-S Proof Kennedys. However, current market on these in PR69DCAM is around $400, and has been trending downward. Accounting for the extraordinary nature of this particular example, I could see $750 to $800 as reasonable, but not the over $1200 it sold for.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Hey! Where is this thread about the 1893-S? It's bugging me that I missed the flames!
Russ, NCNE >>
O'Linky
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>You're not getting me on your psychiatrist's couch. How long did you practice before you morphed into a coin dealer/stream of consciousness forum poster? >>
Pharmer, relax and put your feet up for a spell.
<< <i>
<< <i>You're not getting me on your psychiatrist's couch. How long did you practice before you morphed into a coin dealer/stream of consciousness forum poster? >>
Pharmer, relax and put your feet up for a spell.
I could use a little break, too.
...but I don't necessarily want to pile on.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
So just keeping count- there's a "classic herd", a "modern herd", and an "in-crowd herd".....
I prefer to run with the "abs-herd".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>So just keeping count- there's a "classic herd", a "modern herd", and an "in-crowd herd".....
I prefer to run with the "abs-herd". >>
Outstanding pun!
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
<< <i>I prefer to run with the "abs-herd >>
Andy, if that is the case you'd better hit the gym harder and get to work on those "abs".
Camelot
My only points on the 93-S Morgan were: 1) I thought it was very unlikely to be in a PCGS holder AND be HARSHLY cleaned--as in whizzed (although I've certainly seen some lightly cleaned keys-- like several 89CC's-- in PCGS holders);
And, 2) that original whiter coins are especially hard to show luster-wise on a scanner like DLRC's--and no one can tell from the image, IMHO. The real point is to deal with an honest dealer with a good return policy so so can closely examine coins yourself. Somehow that got lost in the thread's many "opinions" on PCGS/DLRC.