Remember this thread? While the year is not over yet, I did say we would NOT see $405 again this year. Also, as I pointed out and despite the fact that Laura hadn't seen it yet, the generic gold craze was underway. Sorry, just needed to do my "told ya so".
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
I almost forgot about this thread John. Maybe we should keep resurrecting these every few months rather than having to rewrite the same stuff to the next guy who asks. I don't look upon this so much as I told you so but more like the facts are right there in front of our faces. They have been there for several years. Wishing it were otherwise or depending on the 1980's or 1990's to bail us out is not going to happen.
Until the we get a handle on all the major issues affecting the US dollar, the course of events is pretty well set. To anyone has not seen a chart of the US dollar since late 2001, I encourage you to take a look. This chart ends in 2003 at around .95 when the article was written. You can extrapolate the down channel to the current .82.
That's a good bet RYK. It's 50-50 that we could correct before getting to $475. But I'll bet we see a move to $475 first before correcting. There's a lot of momentum at the present and $480 is the next point of some resistance. There's actually very little here keeping things from running to $500+. A lot of the weak hands bailed out already at $425-$435. If the dollar doesn't get a bump up this week to stem the tide, $475 looks might good.
Doesn't one of your fellow state residents have something to say about that statement of yours...............That's a good bet RYK. It's 50-50 that we could correct before getting to $475...........................?
Andy Rooney said:
""The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong."
<< <i>ready for a bold statement?????????? if we balance the federal budget all the dizzying questions and opinions on gold will melt away. there, i said it.
Not likely at any time in the next 4-8 years as this won't get anyone re-elected. Selling social programs to constituents and special interests is what moves the electorate. Who will be the first senior citizen to step up and vote to have their Soc Sec cut? You can write a long list. To balance our budget we need gold around $1650/oz right now. Or in other words, we'd have to make massive cuts in govt programs across the board to the tune of 30-60%. That's not going to happen. Or raise taxes 30%? That's not going to happen either. No, nothing will change until we our bankrupt and have no choice in the matter. Until then, live as high off the hog as you can because there won't be a 2nd chance for many years. Mr. Early, sell some of those $20's and lock in some profit. Gold will eventually reverse.
Nah Mr Roadrunner, my bets on the bull moving forward. I just wish I could buy a lot more at levels that I could justify a profit on resale. It's tough out there!
Taxes are definitely going up. Whether it's in the form of a further erosion of the dollar, higher prices and "fees" for energy of all kinds, reductions in shelters and write off's ( ala reagans sleight of hand), all of the above...... Just got my property tax bill. It's way up.
Buy it and hide it. It's going to be an interesting time with this out of control government.
They WILL collect on the 7+ trillion dollar debt. You were hoping for freedom? Ha!
<< <i>Gee, TDN, that scares me too! 4 more terms - yikes! Maybe this is a forshadowing of more Bush's in the white house? (Jeb, Jenna, Barbara, who else is out there?). Damn, Jeb in 2008-2016, that would about fully bankrupt the country. There'd be nothing left.
roadrunner >>
Jebs ok. He's fought off the rats trying to enact a state income tax here.
Not many places left for that. I was just in North Carolina looking at possibly relocating. We'll be back in Asheville next week but we're planning on taking a couple days to look around in eastern Tenn for that reason.
I see a correction coming by mid December if not a little sooner. Not a large correction either, but silver much moreso than gold.
Still, by the end of the year we'll be somewhat higher than we are now and gold should be pushing $480.
I look for that magic $500 level to be broken by the end of January.
We'll see. Time will tell, as always.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
“Whats even more interesting, generic gold has NOT moved up. Either generics are one heck of a smart buy right now, OR the price of gold at $420 is a run up by traders that won't last.
Laura, good point about the MS64 Saints. With each successive move and back in gold, the saints have moved less and less with each swing. The first move to $425, saints in 64 hit $775 wholesale.”
Wow how things have changed in just two short months.
I agree with RR, I think we should just keep adding to this one thread. Does anyone have a link to the thread at the end of the year, or the first of this year, on our gold predictions?
Here are the 2 major threads on gold around Dec 2003-Jan 2004. Take your pick. The first 2 are 4-6 pages each. A lot of stuff but most views are presented. The 2 last ones are about a page.
I still don't see why there's a bigger % correction in silver over gold. Afterall silver is actually consumed in things besides jewelry. Who's doing all the gold selling or is it an end of year tax selloff? The gold drop does seem like a lot of short selling and the long holders got spooked/ took profits. There's no fundamental change to start a major gold downtrend longterm with a very strong base at the $395-405 range.
It's an ordinary uptrend's regression to the 50 day moving average. That's what investments in uptrends do. Might pull back further to the 200 dma, which would be an outstanding panic to buy into... but I'll bet on no change in trend and $460 before $425.
I've put about 5% of my assets into gold mining shares in the recent pullback. I view precious metals as a good hedge against devaluation and unlike base metals, they are recession proof.
I'd give you the 500 by valentines day michael but don't everybody panic if it bumps 425 because it probably will before it rises. These metals are gonna be all over the place in the course of the day to day so the 120/200 dma is a good thing to keep in mind.
I am going to run a contest later this month. By December 17th, pick the final spot price of gold for 2004 AND the price paid for the last PCGS MS-63 generic Saint sold on ebay in 2004. Should be a fun contest. I am working on the prize.
Just for fun, I bought 2 generic PCGS 63 generic Saints at Bowers last week. If I lose money on the first 2 Gold coins I've ever owned in the next 1 year, I'll be very disappointed in some of you gold guys. I see a 25% plus runup by the end of next year in generic Saints!! Hope some of you are right!!
Some currency blips spooked their market and the US dollar reacted by short sellers bailing out. This had nothing to do with the gold fundamentals. And yes, firms are locking in whatever profits they have for the year or quarter regardless of what sense it makes.
On the very stupid side, the new ETF gold fund dumped 13 tons of gold on the market today. Yes, this is the same fund supported by the World Gold Council to "help" gold out! Dumping 13 tons of gold into a falling market is pretty stupid for a group that professes to "support" gold. You have to wonder. Sell on strength, buy on weakess. Morons! The fund is only a few months old and it looks like they are jumping on to the same band wagon as the currency traders to lock in their "profits" so they can print a nice annual report. They will look exceptionally stupid if gold reverses as nothing has changed in the fundamentals of the economy and the dollar.
I'd like to think that the selling will stop before $425 but I doubt it. Too many sheep-followers will fear gold going under $400. Selling begets selling. On the flip side, I would not be surprised to see a quick recovery right back to the $450 level and beyond over the next several weeks. Valentine's Day should be lucky. Maybe even Groundhog Day. Regardless, gold will exceed $500 on the next move up whether it occurs in 3 weeks or 6 months. It's coming.
Why? Because our country is so deeply in debt to other nations that's why. We can only repay this debt by "devaluing" our currency. It has already started. The dollar continues to tumble vs. foreign currencies. If we devalue or "inflate" the dollar, it is easier to repay our debts in the future. The dollars that we pay our debts back with will be worth a lot less than the dollars we borrowed. It also makes it easier to sell our goods overseas and reduce the trade deficit.
Since the value of gold won't change, the number of dollars it takes to buy it will increase as the value of the dollar declines worldwide.
In the short term, I believe our debt will have little effect on the price of gold, or could be mildly deflationary (in gold price). Most of the debt is relatively long term. There is no immediate repayment type problem. If foreigners were to get queasy about the growing level of US debt, the short-term effect would be a rise in interest rates. (long term rates are still amazingly low) For a time this might actually strengthen the dollar (and weaken gold priced in dollars), as investors gamble that the rise in interest rates adequately compensates for currency risk. The rising interest rates, if severe, would put pressure on US economic growth. Everything could work through the system, with a gradual return to balance, and little effect at all on the long term price of gold. Or, we could panic. and move to highly inflationary measures, and the price of gold would in fact rise as people are predicting.
(Which scenario you pick is somewhat of a crap-shoot, and depends much more on social phenomena that easily quantifiable financial information.)
Always took candy from strangers Didn't wanna get me no trade Never want to be like papa Working for the boss every night and day --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
The only true wealth is education. It doesn't fluctuate on a daily basis or cause panic.
I was a gold nut for couple of days and before that I was a stock nut, but I think I have re-habilitated myself and I know what is essential in life. Happiness, contentment and education.
I suspect golds bottom is at hand. There could be a major sell off over one or two days which would take it close to $400 but this isn't likely. In the near future it will turn around and head back to the $435 area. We'll see $450 by early spring.
RYK, This is a crazy market! Gold and particularly silver should be really moving in this inflationary environment. Perhaps Roadrunner can shed some light on who is manipulating these metals these days. Oil, Food, utilities, cars, homes and most consumer goods are seeing annual double-digit increases. All I hear every day in my part of the World is how expensive everything is getting, and yet our leading metals indicators only seem to react to weakening dollars?
We hearing that a large investment bank says they will be buying gold as a hedge against declining Treasury prices. When asked where they see the 10-year note yield, they said they expect it to get above 5% sooner than many think. (If rates actually move this quickly, note that this would be a distinct negative for interest rate-sensitive groups such as homebuilders, mortgage lenders, utilities, REITs, etc.)
The dollar and its various instruments react much more to sentiment than to fundamentals. The decline in treasuries implies a major sentiment change is occuring to reflect the erosion of the last couple decades in fundamentals. This should be a very swift move once it gets going. Hang on to your hats and don't get greedy because these ain't the end times.
There is much manipulation in the metals games. As far as names? Central banks, IMF, US Treasury ESF, Goldman Sachs & other large brokers, gold commercials, and a host of others.
While gold could experience another setback in the near term due to market manipulations a few other bullish factors may have come into play. The bond traders have been playing a massive carry game for the past few years with essentially no risk. Trillions have been diverted away from commodities where some would normally go if inflationary winds are blowing. The yield curve between long and short term rates has been flattening for 2 years. It may have just hit a bottom with a reversing trend beginning. That would be very bullish for gold, coins, and most anything tangible. Long term rates would of course have to start picking up steam. The 10 year treasury has strongly reversed its current rate too. Another bullish indicator for gold is the CRB commodity index posting a 25 year high. Commodities are only in their 4th year of upward movements and took out the highs of the 1979 market. And all this while most feel we DON'T HAVE INFLATION. Make you wonder what it would do if there "were" inflationary pressures out there.
If bond traders start trading as if inflation were of concern to them, the lid could blow off the commodity markets. One of the things keeping our economy floating is all the bonds being sold overseas in the essentially no risk carry game. It has also been a convenient way to draw $$ from the world economies and transfer it to bond and currency traders. If this game ends, things could flip over rather dramatically. Check out detailed recent articles from James Sinclair and Antale Fekete where the information above has been presented. Fekete has been predicting a deflationary scenario and Sinclair inflationary. How the bond market moves seems to be the decision maker. Either way, gold will outperform Federal Reserve Notes.
Rising term short rates (and falling long term rates) have succeeded in creating a very lucrative bond trading scheme for the past few years. Those rising short term rates did little to support the US dollar while long term rates were still falling. That brings us to the present. If long term rates start to outpace short term rate increases (inflationary scenario) then eventually a brake will be applied and the US dollar stregthens. But "real" rates have to go positive by exceeding "real" inflation and earn "real" money for bond holders. Right now real rates are negative and will stay that way as long as inflation outpaces the interest rate increases. So what if interest rates go up to say 5% of inflation is then at 7%. Real rates are still negative. Then toss into this mix just what is the real rate of inflation. Some believe the published CPI numbers and others do not. In the end, the dollar will improve and commence a new long term bull market when as you said, buyers prefer dollars to gold (as occurred in the 1990's).
When real interest rates exceed the real rate of inflation then the dollar will strengthen and hopefully improve. But it might take double digit interest rates and a US dollar Index of .7 or .6 to accomplish that. This same logic applied in the late 1970's and early 1980's. Whether it applies today remains to be seen. Asian nations are still buying our debt in order to keep their economies afloat and employed. If they can keep on absorbing our debt, the game can continue "indefinitely." This helps to keep interest rates down. There's an article below by Michael Alexander linking former cycles (WW II) where high inflation was linked to low interest rates. Here, political needs override financial needs. Interesting read.
If you were offered $5,000 in federal reserve $100 notes or $5,000 in gold bullion (1 ounce US eagles), and had to keep one or the other for 1 year, which would it be? You cannot sell either nor trade it. You can of course place those dollars in a US bank to draw simple interest. Bottom line, do you want US dollars or gold bullion? Your choice. Both are extremely liquid cash equivalents. You can also decline the free offer and give up a free windfall. But if accepted, you only have 2 choices.
Yes, to return to the old forum days of Dollardude, Dave Ramsey, 60% of one's "investments" in real estate (ie can't miss). Wonder how DD is doing these days. $400 gold seems such a long time ago. But just 2 yrs ago when generic gold was still very cheap. It's now secret what worked out better since mid-2004, real estate or gold. That trend will only continue.
$700? No, a new gold record is already steaming at us. $1000 and higher from there. The 3rd angel is next.
Comments
I have a saying...."The ma$$es are a$$es" Whenever everybody is onboard, it is time for the boat to sink.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
Until the we get a handle on all the major issues affecting the US dollar, the course of events is pretty well set. To anyone has not seen a chart of the US dollar since late 2001, I encourage you to take a look. This chart ends in 2003 at around .95 when the article was written. You can extrapolate the down channel to the current .82.
us dollar bear
roadrunner
My bet is $475 first.
roadrunner
Doesn't one of your fellow state residents have something to say about that statement of yours...............That's a good bet RYK. It's 50-50 that we could correct before getting to $475...........................?
Andy Rooney said:
""The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong."
<< <i>ready for a bold statement?????????? if we balance the federal budget all the dizzying questions and opinions on gold will melt away. there, i said it.
Not likely at any time in the next 4-8 years as this won't get anyone re-elected. Selling social programs to constituents and special interests is what moves the electorate. Who will be the first senior citizen to step up and vote to have their Soc Sec cut? You can write a long list. To balance our budget we need gold around $1650/oz right now. Or in other words, we'd have to make massive cuts in govt programs across the board to the tune of 30-60%. That's not going to happen. Or raise taxes 30%? That's not going to happen either. No, nothing will change until we our bankrupt and have no choice in the matter. Until then, live as high off the hog as you can because there won't be a 2nd chance for many years. Mr. Early, sell some of those $20's and lock in some profit. Gold will eventually reverse.
Nah Mr Roadrunner, my bets on the bull moving forward. I just wish I could buy a lot more at levels that I could justify a profit on resale. It's tough out there!
Taxes are definitely going up. Whether it's in the form of a further erosion of the dollar, higher prices and "fees" for energy of all kinds, reductions in shelters and write off's ( ala reagans sleight of hand), all of the above...... Just got my property tax bill. It's way up.
Buy it and hide it. It's going to be an interesting time with this out of control government.
They WILL collect on the 7+ trillion dollar debt. You were hoping for freedom? Ha!
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Gee, TDN, that scares me too! 4 more terms - yikes! Maybe this is a forshadowing of more Bush's in the white house? (Jeb, Jenna,
Barbara, who else is out there?). Damn, Jeb in 2008-2016, that would about fully bankrupt the country. There'd be nothing left.
roadrunner >>
Jebs ok. He's fought off the rats trying to enact a state income tax here.
Not many places left for that. I was just in North Carolina looking at possibly relocating. We'll be back in Asheville next week but we're planning on taking a couple days to look around in eastern Tenn for that reason.
Not to many places to run anymore.
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Get rid of income and you won't have a problem.
Still, by the end of the year we'll be somewhat higher than we are now and gold should be pushing $480.
I look for that magic $500 level to be broken by the end of January.
We'll see. Time will tell, as always.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
Laura, good point about the MS64 Saints. With each successive move and back in gold, the saints have moved less and less with each swing. The first move to $425, saints in 64 hit $775 wholesale.”
Wow how things have changed in just two short months.
I agree with RR, I think we should just keep adding to this one thread. Does anyone have a link to the thread at the end of the year, or the first of this year, on our gold predictions?
Take your pick. The first 2 are 4-6 pages each. A lot of stuff but most views are presented. The 2 last ones are about a page.
Gold thread 1
Gold thread 2
Gold thread 3
Gold thread 4
roadrunner
Sometimes you are right, sometimes wrong.
Edited to add: It's $435 right now.
siliconvalleycoins.com
It's an ordinary uptrend's regression to the 50 day moving average. That's what investments in uptrends do. Might pull back further to the 200 dma, which would be an outstanding panic to buy into... but I'll bet on no change in trend and $460 before $425.
michael
<< <i>500 before valentines day
michael >>
I've put about 5% of my assets into gold mining shares in the
recent pullback. I view precious metals as a good hedge against
devaluation and unlike base metals, they are recession proof.
Please check out my eBay auctions!
My WLH Short Set Registry Collection
50 ema didn't hold for silver, will be neat to see if the next stop is the 200 for both gold and silver.
On the very stupid side, the new ETF gold fund dumped 13 tons of gold on the market today. Yes, this is the same fund supported by the World Gold Council to "help" gold out! Dumping 13 tons of gold into a falling market is pretty stupid for a group that professes to "support" gold. You have to wonder. Sell on strength, buy on weakess. Morons! The fund is only a few months old and it looks like they are jumping on to the same band wagon as the currency traders to lock in their "profits" so they can print a nice annual report. They will look exceptionally stupid if gold reverses as nothing has changed in the fundamentals of the economy and the dollar.
I'd like to think that the selling will stop before $425 but I doubt it.
Too many sheep-followers will fear gold going under $400. Selling begets selling. On the flip side, I would not be surprised to see a quick recovery right back to the $450 level and beyond over the next several weeks. Valentine's Day should be lucky. Maybe even Groundhog Day. Regardless, gold will exceed $500 on the next move up whether it occurs in 3 weeks or 6 months. It's coming.
ETF dumps gold link
roadrunner
My 4000th post here.
On November 28th, I predicted this price:
Sunday November 28, 2004 7:46 PM (NEW!)
$435 of course!
-------------------------
Happy collecting,
Oreville
I am embarrassed to admit I posted 4000 times here. That means I posted 3.13 posts a day since June 2001!!
Gold will top $750 by the end of 2005.
Why? Because our country is so deeply in debt to other nations that's why. We can only repay this debt by "devaluing" our currency. It has already started. The dollar continues to tumble vs. foreign currencies. If we devalue or "inflate" the dollar, it is easier to repay our debts in the future. The dollars that we pay our debts back with will be worth a lot less than the dollars we borrowed. It also makes it easier to sell our goods overseas and reduce the trade deficit.
Since the value of gold won't change, the number of dollars it takes to buy it will increase as the value of the dollar declines worldwide.
Just my 3 cents worth
My Auctions
In the short term, I believe our debt will have little effect on the price of gold, or could be mildly deflationary (in gold price). Most of the debt is relatively long term. There is no immediate repayment type problem. If foreigners were to get queasy about the growing level of US debt, the short-term effect would be a rise in interest rates. (long term rates are still amazingly low) For a time this might actually strengthen the dollar (and weaken gold priced in dollars), as investors gamble that the rise in interest rates adequately compensates for currency risk. The rising interest rates, if severe, would put pressure on US economic growth. Everything could work through the system, with a gradual return to balance, and little effect at all on the long term price of gold. Or, we could panic. and move to highly inflationary measures, and the price of gold would in fact rise as people are predicting.
(Which scenario you pick is somewhat of a crap-shoot, and depends much more on social phenomena that easily quantifiable financial information.)
<< <i>Gold is now at $420. What next? >>
I hope it doesn't affect our 61-O!
But I don't think so!
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
The only true wealth is education. It doesn't fluctuate on a daily basis or cause panic.
I was a gold nut for couple of days and before that I was a stock nut, but I think I have re-habilitated myself and I know what is essential in life. Happiness, contentment and education.
Now I am a plain nut.
days which would take it close to $400 but this isn't likely. In the near future it will
turn around and head back to the $435 area. We'll see $450 by early spring.
This is a crazy market! Gold and particularly silver should be really moving in this inflationary environment. Perhaps Roadrunner can shed some light on who is manipulating these metals these days. Oil, Food, utilities, cars, homes and most consumer goods are seeing annual double-digit increases. All I hear every day in my part of the World is how expensive everything is getting, and yet our leading metals indicators only seem to react to weakening dollars?
We hearing that a large investment bank says they will be buying gold as a hedge against declining Treasury prices. When asked where they see the 10-year note yield, they said they expect it to get above 5% sooner than many think. (If rates actually move this quickly, note that this would be a distinct negative for interest rate-sensitive groups such as homebuilders, mortgage lenders, utilities, REITs, etc.)
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The decline in treasuries implies a major sentiment change is occuring to reflect the erosion
of the last couple decades in fundamentals. This should be a very swift move once it gets
going. Hang on to your hats and don't get greedy because these ain't the end times.
Central banks, IMF, US Treasury ESF, Goldman Sachs & other large brokers, gold commercials, and a host of others.
roadrunner
If bond traders start trading as if inflation were of concern to them, the lid could blow off the commodity markets. One of the things keeping our economy floating is all the bonds being sold overseas in the essentially no risk carry game. It has also been a convenient way to draw $$ from the world economies and transfer it to bond and currency traders. If this game ends, things could flip over rather dramatically. Check out detailed recent articles from James Sinclair and Antale Fekete where the information above has been presented.
Fekete has been predicting a deflationary scenario and Sinclair inflationary. How the bond market moves seems to be the decision maker. Either way, gold will outperform Federal Reserve Notes.
roadrunner
<< <i> The 10 year treasury has strongly reversed its current rate too.
roadrunner >>
Wouldn't rising interest rates help to support the dollar, which would put an end to the "sell dollars buy gold" mentality?
When real interest rates exceed the real rate of inflation then the dollar will strengthen and hopefully improve. But it might take double digit interest rates and a US dollar Index of .7 or .6 to accomplish that. This same logic applied in the late 1970's and early 1980's. Whether it applies today remains to be seen. Asian nations are still buying our debt in order to keep their economies afloat and employed. If they can keep on absorbing our debt, the game can continue "indefinitely." This helps to keep interest rates down.
There's an article below by Michael Alexander linking former cycles (WW II) where high inflation was linked to low interest rates. Here, political needs override financial needs. Interesting read.
If you were offered $5,000 in federal reserve $100 notes or $5,000 in gold bullion (1 ounce US eagles), and had to keep one or the other for 1 year, which would it be? You cannot sell either nor trade it. You can of course place those dollars in a US bank to draw simple interest. Bottom line, do you want US dollars or gold bullion? Your choice. Both are extremely liquid cash equivalents. You can also decline the free offer and give up a free windfall. But if accepted, you only have 2 choices.
Alexander article
roadrunner
Gold is going to $700, it's inevitable now.......
Your thoughts are most appreciated!!!
GOT GOLD?
60% of one's "investments" in real estate (ie can't miss). Wonder how DD is doing these days. $400 gold seems such a long time ago. But just 2 yrs ago when generic gold was still very cheap. It's now secret what worked out better since mid-2004, real estate or gold. That trend will only continue.
$700? No, a new gold record is already steaming at us. $1000 and higher from there. The 3rd angel is next.
roadrunner