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population diarrhea -- defined
lava
Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭
Population diarrhea is the product of modern coins getting submitted to Third-Party Graders.
I understand that an ms69 or ms70 coin is conditionally rare, but there are many bags, mint sets, proof sets, etc., containing modern coins that may contain many 69s and 70s -- it is just a matter of time before someone submits them. As a result, the population numbers for moderns are like a house of cards. It is ironic that what is conditionally rare today is likely to be proven, over time, not to be so rare after all.
I understand that an ms69 or ms70 coin is conditionally rare, but there are many bags, mint sets, proof sets, etc., containing modern coins that may contain many 69s and 70s -- it is just a matter of time before someone submits them. As a result, the population numbers for moderns are like a house of cards. It is ironic that what is conditionally rare today is likely to be proven, over time, not to be so rare after all.
I brake for ear bars.
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The declaration argued that governments exist by and for the people with citizens obligated to overthrow a tyrannical government.
Russ, NCNE
1 21742767 1969-S 1C USA PR68DC Sooo close
1 21742768 1969-S 1C USA PR68DC Sooo close
1 21742769 1969-S 1C USA PR68CA Oops
2 21742770 1971-S 1C USA PR64DC What the hell was I thinking!
2 21742771 1971-S 1C USA PR68DC Not Bad!
2 21742772 1971-S 1C USA PR64CA Damn!
3 21742775 1971-S 50C USA PR64 Hmmm Damn again!
3 21742773 1971-S 50C USA PR69DC CHA-CHING! This is the 1st one of these I have ever made!!
3 21742774 1971-S 50C USA PR69CA Close
4 21742776 1967 5C SMS USA MS66DC Nice
4 21742777 1967 5C SMS USA MS67DC CHA-CHING!
5 21742778 1967 10C SMS USA MS68 OK
It seems like PCGS is spitting out these PR68DC grades on a daily basis. If you quote population data in a 10-day ebay auction you may be liable for misrepresentation by the time the auction ends -- that seems to be how fast these pop numbers change.
If under a 1000 pop, I think I can get close enough to reality
The declaration argued that governments exist by and for the people with citizens obligated to overthrow a tyrannical government.
<< <i>Population diarrhea is the product of modern coins getting submitted to Third-Party Graders.
I understand that an ms69 or ms70 coin is conditionally rare, but there are many bags, mint sets, proof sets, etc., containing modern coins that may contain many 69s and 70s -- it is just a matter of time before someone submits them. As a result, the population numbers for moderns are like a house of cards. It is ironic that what is conditionally rare today is likely to be proven, over time, not to be so rare after all. >>
There are no MS-69 or 70's in proof sets.
There are no MS-70's in mint sets most likely considering that none have been graded.
In fact if you define modern as '65 to '98 there are no MS-69's in mint sets either I believe.
Most modern regular issues were not made at all in very high grade. It simply doesn't mat-
ter that no one saved the coins because they were not produced in ultra high grades. Those
who neglected to save any of these coins can always fall back on the argument that there are
many of them in mint sets but the fact is that most of the mint sets have already been destroyed
and their contents left to the ravages of circulation. Many which haven't been destroyed have
been checked for high grades and found wanting.
Really collectors of the future will be far less concerned with the paucity of the high grade coins
available as they will with the few choice and attractive coins available. Incredibly these coins
ae actually intended for commerce and that's exactly what happened to almost all of them. They
are out there greasing the wheels of commerce and are wearing thin in the process. That most
didn't see any reason to collect crappy clads is the reason that nice coins are often very difficult
to find. It's also the reason that so many today believe that these coins do exist in very high
grade.
As far as many bags to check. This, too, is simply false. You won't even find an original roll of
a coin like a 1969 quarter, much less a bag. In fact if you look at the first one hundred Washing-
ton quarter sets that walk into a coin shop there won't be more than a couple '69's in them.
It's not only '69's that are tough, it's virtually every single date of the obsolete eagle reverse
clads. You'll see plenty of the bicentennials and a smattering of '65's and '66's. There might be
a '96 to '98 roll on rare occasion, but others are virtully impossible. The proof of this is right there
for anyone to see. But people are not looking at the coins or anything else related to these ac-
tual coins. The proof is the price of the '82 and '83 issues. Everyone knew there were no mint
sets so they set aside extra coins of these dates. The price of the '83 25C roll is over $1,000 !!!
If so few of these were saved then how many of the other dates were saved? Remember that
there isn't much demand for any of these clads and one of the more common ones goes for
$1,000 per roll. Eventually the amount of demand for intact sets will exceed the supply that
comes on the market from estate sales and the like. When this occurs there will be a major
change in the perception of the availability of the coins. There will be an even greater change
when the supply of most of the moderns is simply ended. It is the sets yielding the vast majority
of the moon money moderns. Even if there were bags the quality is so poor that the chances
of finding gems in them are remote.
Right now there are only several thousand people assembling nice attractive sets of most of
these coins. I'm wagering this is just about the limit before the supply constraints start show-
ing up. In fact for some dates there are likely already too many collectors and it's not yet rec-
ognized. Even if I'm wrong about the timing (and I have been longer than anyone else), it is
a probability that the day is coming even if not at hand.
too many 3rd world graders give regular unleaded coins premium unleaded grades!!!
<< <i>It seems like PCGS is spitting out these PR68DC grades on a daily basis. >>
So? Most PR68DCAMs aren't even worth the submission fee.
Russ, NCNE
You may not have a choice
I remember reading here about the 2nd tier TPGs don't release pop numbers??
The declaration argued that governments exist by and for the people with citizens obligated to overthrow a tyrannical government.
<< <i>Cladking, that was a very informative and persuasive post, and maybe the most subtle post I have ever seen in which my post is seemingly criticized as being short-sighted. You just might have something. An `83 roll of quarters goes for $1,000? Glad there wasn't a wager on that; I would have been off by 100x. >>
Thank you. I sometimes find the subtlety difficult to maintain.
<< <i>There are no MS-69 or 70's in proof sets.
There are no MS-70's in mint sets most likely considering that none have been graded. >>
Out of curiosity, then, where do these high grade coins come from? I guess the new high grade Statehood Quarters are coming out of mint set, or are they?
<< <i>
<< <i>There are no MS-69 or 70's in proof sets.
There are no MS-70's in mint sets most likely considering that none have been graded. >>
Out of curiosity, then, where do these high grade coins come from? I guess the new high grade Statehood Quarters are coming out of mint set, or are they? >>
The ultra moderns are coming nicer due to improvements made at the mint. Most
of these are still coming from the mint sets. Still, no regular issue modern or ultra-
modern has been graded MS-70. I believe all the MS-69's are ultra-moderns.
There are some very high grade Lincolns in the mint sets made since 1986 and it is
entirely possible that some might grade 69 or 70. It would probably bring moon
money if it did. There is no real chance that many of the moderns will ever grade
MS-68 unless they are "graded on the curve". Some of these are quite difficult to
find even in nice attractive MS-63. The distribution of grades is even more erratic
than the pop reports list because people send in only the finest coins and some of
these are not much easier to find even a few grades down.
Prices are largely determined by demand which is still quite low. But it doesn't pay
slab coins worth only a few dollars so pops are determined by demand also.
<< <i>I didn't know diarrhea was spelled that way, but I am afraid to look it up
http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?va=diarrhea
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