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CONTEST: So How Easy Or Tough Are 1981(s) Ty 1 Lincoln Cents To Slab in PCGS-PR69DCAM? Prize!
wondercoin
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A large bulk deal of (400) fresh 1981(s) Proof Sets was just graded by PCGS. I was really hoping the fresh 400 Proof set batch would have graded at least -1- PCGS-PR70DCAM Ty 1 Lincoln cent for my collection (every other denomination yielded PR70 coins), but it did not. But, how many 1981(s) Lincoln cents in PCGS-PR69DCAM Ty 1 did the 400 proof set batch yield? First person to guess the exact number of 1981(s) Ty 1 PCGS-PR69DCAM Lincolns graded from the 400 proof sets wins a handpicked "monster deep cameo" PCGS-PR69DCAM Lincoln cent (date my choice, but, I will sort through my "special" inventory to hopefully find a super PR69DCAM monster DCAM specimen from the 1990's or possibly even the 1980's).
One guess per board member. Have fun and good luck! This thread is also over on the Registry Forum.
Wondercoin
One guess per board member. Have fun and good luck! This thread is also over on the Registry Forum.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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Scott
Toned Coins for sale @ tonedcointrader.com
Looking for 1967 PCGS/NGC slabbed coins.
Ummmm.....out of 400....I would guess 115 in 69DC
My guess is 78
USMC Veteran 1981-1992
Cold War Veteran
It's truly funny, no make that truly sad, that people in this day and age are so wrapped up in their own little world that they refuse to try and teach someone else the correct or accepted way of doing things.
Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies.
My guess......398
Mitch......how many proof sets do you send in yearly? WOW!
I hope you own some CU stock as you give them a lot of the business.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Thanks for the chance!
-JamminJ
Wondercoin
If I win, can I have one of those MS68 Silver Roosies in your museum for my registry?
No? Oh well, it was worth a shot.
I'm going to assume that the sets were sent in with a min grade of 69DC, and that all 400 coins didn't end up in slabs. My guess: 162.
Sean Reynolds
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
Al
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Larry
One of the interesting things about some proof moderns, such as pre-1982 Lincoln cents, is that, in my experience, many of the coins which are slabbed come about through large "bulk" submissions, such as the (400) 1981(s) Proof sets submitted here. Yet, PCGS does not count the coins which do not achieve the particular minimum grade assigned to the bulk submission - in this case 390/400 Lincoln Cents actually graded by PCGS, but, failing to achieve the minimum grade of PR69DCAM and never getting holdered.
Consider the current online PCGS population on 1981(s) TY 1 Lincolns: there are 826 total coins (in RED) showing in the pop report, of which -8- are in the grade of PR70DCAM, 592 are in the grade of PR69DCAM, 105 in the grade of PR68DCAM and 121 in graded PR62 through PR67.
One of the board members formulated his guess with this comment:
"Mitch,
The pop report indicates that 600 1981-s Type 1 lincolns have graded pr69Dcam or better out of 826 submitted. Assuming your "fresh" batch matched the average (and rounding down since I don't want to go over), my guess is 290. If you had handpicked the sets, naturally, I would have rounded up!"
The above comment demonstrates that the typical collector (even an advanced collector) might naturally assume that basically 1/100 coins submitted grade PR70DCAM and nearly 75% of all coins submitted are at least of PR69DCAM quality. Yet, just from this one single batch this week, we see that 390 sub-PR69DCAM coins never found their way into the PCGS pop report. Hence, in the case of 1981(s) Lincoln cents, I believe the pop numbers are heavily skewed in favor of the misconception that nearly 75% of all 1981(s) Lincolns from Proof sets are of PR69DCAM quality (when, in this sample, a mere 2.5% were of PR69DCAM quality!) Basically, PCGS does not maintain records on exactly how many coins fail to achieve a minimum grade so we really do not have a handle on exactly how many proof sets are being broken up to "make" these PR69DCAM and better coins.
NOW THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS BEING LAID OUT BY A NOVICE (ME) IN THE FIELD OF STATISTICS - I WILL STATE UP FRONT THE NUMBERS I COME UP WITH ARE PROBABLY WRONG - BUT, DOES ANYONE TRULY HAVE A HANDLE ON WHAT THE RIGHT NUMBERS ARE?
At a 2.5% grade through rate for 1981(s) PR69DCAM Lincolns and assuming a significant portion of the existing (592) PR69DCAM coins were slabbed through bulk grading (does anyone really knows just how many made it in the pop report through bulk grading vs. non-bulk grading?) - exactly how many proof sets were broken up to achieve the (592) PR69DCAM coins? Using a 2.5% grade through rate (and by no means does this one bulk submission prove 2.5% is the right figure), it might require 23,680 fresh, random, sets to get (592) PR69DCAM 1981(s) coins!! Moreover, applying the ratio of 8 PR70DCAM compared to 592 PR69DCAM (1.35% of the coins are PR70DCAM and 98.65% of the coins are PR69DCAM (vis a vis only those (2) slabbed grades) - one might need as many as roughly 150,000 1981(s) Proof sets to slab a PCGS-PR70DCAM Lincoln cent on average (again, assuming my (faulty) 2.5% grade through rate and any advanced knowledge of statistics which I admit I do not possess)!! OK - let's assume my 150,000 figure is wrong for a PR70DCAM Lincoln and my 23,680 is wrong for a PR69DCAM Lincoln -still, inquiring minds would like to know exactly how many unopened sets of 1981(s) coins it does take on average to slab these Lincolns?
When moderns are discussed, I often see folks "throwing the baby out with the bathwater". While (400) fresh sets of 2004 proof coins might possibly yield 350+ PR69DCAM coins (and, therefore, an easy calculation as well on how scarce or common PR70DCAM coins are as well) - when one begin to discuss proofs from the 1970's and early 1980's, my continuing research demonstrates that many of the pre-1982 proof coins are extremely difficult to locate in PR69DCAM and PR70DCAM (depending upon the coin). On the other hand, a huge percentage of every 2004(s) Lincoln cent struck by the mint these days is of PR69DCAM quality I believe.
Anyway, I just thought this would be interesting "food for thought" as I am personally fascinated by many of the higher grade proof coins struck between 1950 and the early to mid- 1980"s. I hope you also enjoyed the contest.
The answer here is -10- PCGS-PR69DCAM Lincolns out of (400) fresh and original 1981 Proof Sets!! Mark Wood is our winner - he guessed 7. Mark - a super guess!! Congratulations on winning the contest.
Wondercoin
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Makes sense to me as well.
Wondercoin
What does fresh mean? Were they stored in a freezer for the last 23 years? I only ask because proofs tend to go bad in the set or the holder if not stored in a low humidity environment, and thus I would not expect to get many 69s or 70s from a group this old.
Steve: They could have been for all I know, or for that matter stored in a greenhouse
The other denomination of coins from the sets did just fine in PR69DC possibly further demonstrating the difficulty of just the Lincoln cent (copper) to maintain itself in near pristine condition after 23 years in "govt. plastic".
Wondercoin
I also love to go through rolls to find coins.
BST
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