What does everyone think of the prices on the Jeffersons on Heritage tonight?
LALASD4
Posts: 3,602 ✭✭✭
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent.
San Diego, CA
San Diego, CA
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I don't claim to be an expert on the series, but several of the prices realized seemed soft. The 1970-S in PCGS65FS went for just over a grand with the juice, I remember seeing another 65FS go for over $3,000 on eBay within the last two years. The 1979 in PCGS65FS went for $300, I just sold a 64FS on eBay for over $200 a couple of months ago.
The real head-scratcher to me, though, was the non-SMS 1966 in MS66 , which went for under $60, while a non-SMS 1967 in MS66 went for ten times that amount.
I'd be very curious to hear what some of the Jefferson Registry Set guys have to say.
Sean Reynolds
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
Rgrds
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
an interesting point that many miss with the FS pre-1988 Jeffersons is that there are some very tuff dates. it strikes me as reassuring that with the escalating prices, the pops aren't growing. talk from the guys in the trenches doing roll, bag and set searches tells me that the low pops won't grow much in a huury, if at all----unless the choice coins are being hoarded. but that isn't logical since the guys doing the searching are doing it for the money(please don't interpret that as a slap of some sort, it's just what dealers do).
in a nutshell from my lofty perch, if coins could be found in grades higher than MS63-64FS and sold for the premiums they clearly bring, we'd be seeing them. there are certainly enough willing buyers, so demand isn't a problem. the prices many find hard to accept are being driven by that demand--------and the accompanying small supply.
an aside to Tom about the 1955 FS Jeff's-----you should probably focus on the MS65FS, it's doubtful you'll find a higher graded coin.
al h.
This is where I deleted almost four paragraphs from my original reply, wondering what the hell happened to the series . I had to think hard as to what to say(thought about it before hitting reply, so this is not edited per se) because what I say here will likely have at least a small effect on Modern FS Jeffs, and I dont want the buyers of my coins to be made public...I know if I had I been a buyer of them and consigned them to test the waters, I wouldnt be very happy at all...I will just say this openly.....its a good thing the consignor did so well on that '67 nonSMS...I felt it would go for more than $690, however I had only owned that coin for 2 years MAX...my spread on selling it two months ago was SWEETNESS...now, knowing what I got for it, and what it went for tells me this market has not only softened, but needs a serious boost from whatever the mint comes up with next for Jeffersons. Only the best of the best ever commands ridiculously high premiums....this cycles market is NOT going to give that to current/new buyers into the FS Jeff sector. Take the '76-P MS66FS (yes, that exact one was in my set also).....I paid just about as much as the hammer price (tiny bit less) on that one just about a year ago....MY spread on that one from buy/sell also made me VERY happy...HOWEVER, prior to my selling it, that coin was a pop 6/1, now its a pop 6/2, telling me that particular date/mm/grade has seen its better days....the 1970-S that was in my set was only 63FS, and I sold that for ALMOST what you sold your 64FS for, SeanQ, and I sold at about the same time, probably just a bit earlier.... I wouldnt have been thrilled with many of the hammers, except, naturally, for a few exceptions, had I consigned them (again, the spreads arent nearly as great as I thought they would be). Having owned a number of them at one time, its nice to see there ARE buyers still looking for quality, but the Modern FS Jeffs COULD have already seen their '15 minutes of fame' already, in MY humble opinion. I will just say this at this time (if anyone wants to discuss it at length, feel free to PM me):
It looks to me that, even though I was forced to sell my set off, I was better off HAVING had to sell them, instead of being allowed to keep them and rolling the dice. The Modern FS series is now officially a LONG LONG term hold if you want to a CHANCE to see any profit, and even that may be a very big hill (and please, SPARE me the drabble as to collecting for profit vs enjoyment...top set builders ARE looking at the profit margin...I KNOW, I BUILT and OWNED one). Though I still have my '94 & '97 SMS Jeffs (putting a Mopdern Variety set together...'79/81 T1 and T2, all SMS's), those Schlag originals sold by the FSNC, fetching some crazy money on ebay (yeah, I also know for $80, you TOO can own a set) are looking just as good as most of the Modern Jeffs. Any and all who are still in this sector that ARENT independently wealthy, well, you may have some decisions to make in the near future, as only the pop tops are going to be heavily sought out with premiums climbing...and Modern FS Jeff collectors know those exist ony by the handfuls, and in many/most cases, not even that many....strap yourselves in Modern Jeff collectors...this IS going to be a bumpy downhill ride...I for one am thankful I was forced to sit this one out.
If any of you wish to PM me directly for more specifics (will not say who my buyers were) as to why I feel this, feel free to PM me. I, for one, am really surprised they did so poorly. I guess the general collecting public still isnt ready to give this coin ANY due, let alone what it already IS due.
reason to doubt most of your conclusions. As most of the collectors and dealers know
who've searched for these coins, the modern nickels are extremely elusive with full
strikes and mark free. While rolls of most are reasonably well available they will usually
contain very poorly struck coins and the mint sets coins aren't necessarily a great deal
better though they are struck with new dies. Most of the coins from either will be marked
up.
The point being that while the high end of the market may be taking undeserved lumps
at the current time there are a lot of set builders out there. There are the newbies work-
ing this set from circulation or from ads in the coin papers and there are many older col-
lectors bring their "classic" Jefferson sets up to date. Most all these collectors will desire
nice attractive coins. Many of these later coins are difficult with decent strikes (FS or not)
and minimal marking which is what the set collectors will generally seek.
This set will gain most of its demand from the bottom up which is how the entire modern
market has been building steam. But one would think we're probably much further along
in this process than your analysis would indicate. Perhaps it's more a matter of perspective:
After waiting a few decades for someone to notice these coins can be scarce, a few more
years seems inconsequential. Make no mistake about it, this is an an emerging area and
nothing has happened to slow it down nor is it likely anything can.
al h.
Thanks Keets. I spent some time searching auction records and they get pricey as well! These are out of my realm so I almost feel like I'm a "civilian"!
Rgrds
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
what i fail to understand about this series is why the coins, the top coins by issue that collectors familiar with the series know are realistically scarce/rare in grade, are consistently marketed via eBay and online auctions. by comparison, virtually every other series gets the super-hype by the major auction services and the prices climb in response to the awareness. i think lagging prices are a factor of the method to market the coins and/or the need to sell.
al h.
San Diego, CA
The 1970-S pop has been on the uptick for a while now; I'm not shocked to see it land where it did.
The 1979 was cheap IMO.
I ran a few of these up but didn't win any...I almost missed the fact that these were up for auction and didn't have the time to formulate bids for all of them.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
BTW, in nickels, the only softening I've witness in the last year has been with buffs. Compare the 2002-2003 prices with this last year - a bit of a surprise.
Hoot
<< <i>Prices were very uneven. I would blame it on the season before buying into any doom and gloom stories. In the past month I've landed some incredible deals on Lincoln Memorials only to see the same coins sell for up to 3x what I paid only a few weeks later. This is always a good time of the year to be buying.
The 1970-S pop has been on the uptick for a while now; I'm not shocked to see it land where it did.
The 1979 was cheap IMO.
I ran a few of these up but didn't win any...I almost missed the fact that these were up for auction and didn't have the time to formulate bids for all of them.
RELLA >>
I've long been surprised by the price on the '70-S. These are usually awful no matter where
you look but gems do show up in about every 1,500th mint set. That makes it common by mo-
dern standards. There are probably three or four raw ones on the market right now.
Cladking, you mention every 1,500th set....thats still alot of coins still to be made....pops are going to go up up up. Yes, its true that solid, 6 step Jeffs are tough, but they WILL be made. Pop top moderns are WAY overpriced. Its best to see others beat each other over the head with clubs and fight for that elusive pop top with a pop of 2, only to snicker at them when you can get the same coin, same grade in 12 months for half or less....I remember this time last year...2003-D MS65FS Jeffs.....there were I believe 5 in 65FS and one in 66FS. The first 65FS that went up on Teletrade sold for $180-$200....12 months ago...think the buyer is happy now that the 65FS can be had for about 25% of that? Look at the pops a year later...54 in 65FS, 13 in 66FS, and a 67FS. Heck, the 66FS buyers are in for it also....there WILL be more 67FS made of the '03-D...sure, the pops are small right NOW, but its only been a year!!! Too much of a rush to be #1 in the rankings...there seems to be less common sense and more impulse buying when it comes to moderns. I bought into it at one time, but now...... Stick to coins with intrinsic value. When I first got my 1967 nonSMS PCGS MS66 Jeff, with a pop of 4/2 (which hasnt changed, which is why that one will be one of the few good purchases in the Modern Jeff set), I was PSYCHED...now, I DONT regret selling that Jeff, and I am more happy looking at my 1802/1 ANACS Bust dollar in XF, knowing there were only 41,000 total minted for the date, than looking at my '67 MS66 with a pop of 4/2, and checking the pops every day WAITING for the pop to rise...and you KNOW the pops will rise eventually on ANYTHING minted after 1965. And in regard to Cladkings comment about every 1,500 mint sets....I know of NO 1802 mint sets...I know of NO mint sets for an 1890-CC Morgan, which I have raw, that will grade out minimum of 63/64. I for one will purchase only about 15% of the number of coins this year that I got last year. BUT those that I purchase will have a REASON to climb (and they will ALL contain silver)...the reason being there are few if any just sitting around and waiting to be made. I am done rolling the dice with moderns...
<< <i>I agree somewhat with the 'its the summer season' thing. But last summer it didnt soften as normal. Historically, yes, it does, but times, they are a changin'. Moderns are showing their true place in numismatics....you are going to have to hold for years, not just the 5-10 most experts say, but longer. Sure, in 30 years, that 1976-P MS66FS will command a strong price, but thats only assuming the pop doesnt change, and you KNOW its going to change...and not in the favor of the current owner...if that same '76-P 66FS has a pop of, say, 12/7 in 10 years, the buyer that spent $632 for it now will be putting the barrel of a gun in his mouth, and may have to borrow money to buy the bullet, as he has too much tied up in that coin.
Cladking, you mention every 1,500th set....thats still alot of coins still to be made....pops are going to go up up up. Yes, its true that solid, 6 step Jeffs are tough, but they WILL be made. Pop top moderns are WAY overpriced. Its best to see others beat each other over the head with clubs and fight for that elusive pop top with a pop of 2, only to snicker at them when you can get the same coin, same grade in 12 months for half or less....I remember this time last year...2003-D MS65FS Jeffs.....there were I believe 5 in 65FS and one in 66FS. The first 65FS that went up on Teletrade sold for $180-$200....12 months ago...think the buyer is happy now that the 65FS can be had for about 25% of that? Look at the pops a year later...54 in 65FS, 13 in 66FS, and a 67FS. Heck, the 66FS buyers are in for it also....there WILL be more 67FS made of the '03-D...sure, the pops are small right NOW, but its only been a year!!! Too much of a rush to be #1 in the rankings...there seems to be less common sense and more impulse buying when it comes to moderns. I bought into it at one time, but now...... Stick to coins with intrinsic value. When I first got my 1967 nonSMS PCGS MS66 Jeff, with a pop of 4/2 (which hasnt changed, which is why that one will be one of the few good purchases in the Modern Jeff set), I was PSYCHED...now, I DONT regret selling that Jeff, and I am more happy looking at my 1802/1 ANACS Bust dollar in XF, knowing there were only 41,000 total minted for the date, than looking at my '67 MS66 with a pop of 4/2, and checking the pops every day WAITING for the pop to rise...and you KNOW the pops will rise eventually on ANYTHING minted after 1965. And in regard to Cladkings comment about every 1,500 mint sets....I know of NO 1802 mint sets...I know of NO mint sets for an 1890-CC Morgan, which I have raw, that will grade out minimum of 63/64. I for one will purchase only about 15% of the number of coins this year that I got last year. BUT those that I purchase will have a REASON to climb (and they will ALL contain silver)...the reason being there are few if any just sitting around and waiting to be made. I am done rolling the dice with moderns... >>
First off anything minted after 1998 is an ultra-modern and fundamentally different than
the '65-'98 moderns. These newer coins have been saved in quantities so if a lot of gems
were made then there will be a lot of gems to turn up. The older coins were never saved
in very large quantities except for the smaller and larger denominations and in some cases
it's improbable that more than a few gems will show up due to the typical problems for these
coins. Even the denominations which were saved were often not saved in the quantities
many assume. Look at the '84-D cent or the '82 nickel prices if you figure all these were com-
monly saved.
The example of the '70-S nickel was used because it is a "common" gem in full steps. But
look at the numbers and how these mint sets were consumed. People cut up '70 mint sets
by the truck load to get half dollars for Kennedy sets. The other coins in the set were check-
ed for small dates and anything left was an inconvenience. It was trouble to remove them
from the plastic and retail was an improbability for them since very few collected even full
steppers in the early years and could cut their own sets anyway. Most of the left over coins
were hauled to the bank for folding money or used to make change in coin stores. Even col-
lectors would tend to regard mint sets as mere fodder to make their denomination sets, and
would spend anything they couldn't use. Brand new sets are often the first coins one sees
of the new date so the few collectors who kept their sets up to date would cut these up for
that coin. Sure if there were two million 1970 mint sets and every 1,500th one had a gem FS
S nickel then this coin would be truly common (1,300). But there are not two million sets and
most of the coins that were originally in these two million sets are now wearing thin in circul-
ation. Yes, there are some in collections and some which have been set aside by dealers and
others but how many of these can there be? It takes a lot of hard work to find 1,500 1970
mint sets to look through. There are lots of other impediments to the task also, but anyone
who accumulated any number of these would certainly have my admiration.
Today it is improbable that a big bank account and spending a day on the phone calling deal-
ers would get you more than a thousand or two thousand sets. There is a good possibility
that you'd get one of these coins but what does this leave for the next guy seeking this coin?
Remember the modern market is being driven from the bottom up. It is the little collector who
knows little about the mainstream hobby who is driving this market. It is the $2 and $4 purchases
which are fueling most of the demand for moderns and driving a few people to attempt to assemble
the sets in very high grade. Moderns aren't being touted by an endless array of hobby notables.
Indeed, until recently the philosophy went more along the lines that one should buy the best that
he can afford but not buy moderns at all. The buyers who supply these coins to the retailers are
having trouble locating some of the coins and are raising their bids to obtain them. This spurs
more interest and still the '70-S is not being found in large numbers. Yes, some of these coins will
occasionally get graded a few at a time by long time accumulators but there will not be large num-
bers of these coming from large numbers of sets in storage because those sets simply no longer
exist. While it's obvious that all two million sets produced could not have been destroyed, many
are tied up in collections and simply won't be available for generations. Even then they will come
on the market a few at a time.
Most of the old classic coins exist only because they were saved in hoardes or lost by the government
and banks. While the probability of most of these being found in large numbers is remote this, too,
is something that collectors should be aware of.
Whether the demand for moderns keeps increasing or not, the fact remains that many of these are
quite rare in nice condition even if the '70-S is not among them.