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New Collector/Investor
placergold
Posts: 51
Hello,
I am new to this forum but have been lurking for quite a long time gaining much needed current knowledge. I have been collecting on and off for the last 30 or so years with lots of time in between periods. I’ve recently gotten back the “bug” but for a much different reason than before. I would now consider myself 75% investor although I really still am hooked on the collection aspects. Let me outline my thoughts in this regard:
First, I have collected through the mid-late eighties and am very familiar with that past mind-set and the boom/bust/languishing. However, I strongly believe we are currently in a very, very different world, mind set and reality.
Second, our war on terrorism is, obviously, a huge difference compared to 20 years ago. Some consider this WWIII with no visible end. There is no one “enemy” or one location…this is a global Viet Nam but only worse with the potential to become horrendous. I don’t need to keep going on this.
Third, I believe that precious metals have been blatantly manipulated for a number of reasons one of which is not to give the public the notion that something is very wrong. Our recent upsurge and downspike in pricing should be an indication that volatility is around the corner.
Fourth, our economy is in the toilet, I don’t care what the propaganda says in the news. Our national debt is huge, outsourcing is rampant, inflation is poking its head around the corner and there is no end in site with regard to Iraq, terrorism or the financial pangs of growth in China. That is food for another time.
I consider myself a collector but am now focusing upon MS65 and better walkers, morgans and all gold. I’ve almost completed a gold type set (without the early gold so far) and am also zeroing in on all Morgan CC’s with emphasis on DMPL.
There was questions regarding Morgan prices recently…..I think we are only at the beginning. Remember, although there are a lot of Morgans out there, there is only a finite population…..particularly of the high end stuff. These will never go out of favor….Morgans will continue to be the most popular collectible coin.
I think I’ve rambled on a bit too much but, thank you all for the continued knowledge.
I am new to this forum but have been lurking for quite a long time gaining much needed current knowledge. I have been collecting on and off for the last 30 or so years with lots of time in between periods. I’ve recently gotten back the “bug” but for a much different reason than before. I would now consider myself 75% investor although I really still am hooked on the collection aspects. Let me outline my thoughts in this regard:
First, I have collected through the mid-late eighties and am very familiar with that past mind-set and the boom/bust/languishing. However, I strongly believe we are currently in a very, very different world, mind set and reality.
Second, our war on terrorism is, obviously, a huge difference compared to 20 years ago. Some consider this WWIII with no visible end. There is no one “enemy” or one location…this is a global Viet Nam but only worse with the potential to become horrendous. I don’t need to keep going on this.
Third, I believe that precious metals have been blatantly manipulated for a number of reasons one of which is not to give the public the notion that something is very wrong. Our recent upsurge and downspike in pricing should be an indication that volatility is around the corner.
Fourth, our economy is in the toilet, I don’t care what the propaganda says in the news. Our national debt is huge, outsourcing is rampant, inflation is poking its head around the corner and there is no end in site with regard to Iraq, terrorism or the financial pangs of growth in China. That is food for another time.
I consider myself a collector but am now focusing upon MS65 and better walkers, morgans and all gold. I’ve almost completed a gold type set (without the early gold so far) and am also zeroing in on all Morgan CC’s with emphasis on DMPL.
There was questions regarding Morgan prices recently…..I think we are only at the beginning. Remember, although there are a lot of Morgans out there, there is only a finite population…..particularly of the high end stuff. These will never go out of favor….Morgans will continue to be the most popular collectible coin.
I think I’ve rambled on a bit too much but, thank you all for the continued knowledge.
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Comments
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Welcome to the boards. Glad the bug has bitten you again and glad that you found this forum...
I’m a Republican with decided libertarian bent, and I’m not nearly as pessimistic as you are. I don’t fear the national debt. I think that terrorism is manageable so long as we don’t let a bunch of wooly-headed, “all military action is wrong,” “The US stinks and is a corrupt society,” “France, Germany the UN should guide our foreign policy,” liberals get a hold of the government. And I don’t think that our economy is in the toilet.
I’ll warn you of one thing. If the economy really were as bad as you say, numismatic collectables would be one of the WORST investments that you could make. Collector coins are luxury goods, and those who are spending money on a hobby support the market for them. When and if the investors take over the coin market, you can bet that a major crash is on the way. I’ve been collecting for more than 40 years, I’ve watched this happen several times before.
As for Morgan Dollars, Walkers and generic gold, I have some faith only in the latter. As you stated there are large numbers of Morgan Dollars and Walking Liberty half-dollars available. As such they are the kinds of coins that the major dealers can promote to artificially high levels. Yes, the key dates are better, but don’t get lolled into the mind set that prices will go up on this stuff with no limit. There will be a turn in the cycle, the adjustments could be huge.
My advice is to collect only what you enjoy. If you must speculate in coins, I’d go with earlier classic pieces where the supply is obviously limited and the collector base is strong.
Otherwise I’d stick with stocks, bonds and the American economy as the cornerstone of wealth. If the American economy is really going down the tube, then we are all in big trouble, and a coin collection is not going to save you.
Ken
Thank you for your reply and analysis. I certainly respect your experience both in coins and in life but I do respectfully disagree with regard to our economic and political outlook. I am, without question, pessamistic at this point and, you mabye right.....perhaps I should focus upon circulated gold. I think things are going to get much worse than we have previously experienced. Our country will handle whatever comes along, however, being prepared and focusing upon quality in my estimation, will win overall.
Bill must be retired and rich and obviously he doesn't live around here where more companies are laying off and closing every day!!!
Oh yea, he's a Republican, that says a lot!!
I don't collect coins for investment purposes, I collect because I like them!!
Collecting should be fun. Enjoy the hobby.
Live each day to its fullest.
Keep that in mind and try not to worry about what you can't control.
"Bongo hurtles along the rain soaked highway of life on underinflated bald retread tires."
~Wayne
If I had enough money to buy whatever I wanted, I would buy generic gold. Since I don't - I buy generic silver. I am not going to express my opinion of your post on the state of things, because I don't feel like being involved in a flame war. One thing that I will say for sure ----- things are crazy!!!!!!!!!
This is a board for collectors, not investors. The big board handles the investors - see the NYSE.
As far as collecting, collect what you like.
With respect to the economy, who knows, as long as the rich get richer they will continue to "give the z people z air"
Other wise, (big wind sucking sounds)
While I do respect Bills view, I have been unemployed for a period in the past three years and that was suffcient to wipe out my savings and placed my family in peril of looseing our home. Things are not as rosy as they might seem. An example, If your in healthcare, you can kill people and there is no worry you will loose your job. If your in government, you can fail miserably and there is no worry you will loose your job. If you work in IT, you might better be at the top of your game and then there are no "gauruntees". So its all perspective.
One thing is true, He who has the gold makes the rules.
Enjoy,
Dan
First Place Winner of the 2005 Rampage design contest!
And one more thing. Welcome to the boards!
U.S. Nickels Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
U.S. Dimes Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
I'd agree there is ample reason to be pessimistic but there is even more reason
to be optimistic. The best bet probably is that we'll continue to muddle through
as we have for so long. There will be big winners and big losers and as in the past,
these too will turn on a dime.
Certainly coins don't represent a very good investment as a rule and if you're right
that we are in great peril then they should be huge losers.
Try to keep in mind that there are billions of people almost all pulling individually and
collectively to improve conditions for our race. We have always shown a huge capacity
for inventiveness and as time goes on these will have have greater benefit.
Didn't mean to cause a "firestorm", however, I think it is healthy to discuss the coin market as it relates to present and future developments.
I will say that I am a lot more optimistic than some people are and think that "things will be okay"
welcome aboard!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free -- Ronald Reagan
>>
Well said VEEP!!!
<< <i>Welcome to the forum. Half Dimes are a HORRIBLE investment, just set them down and walk away from the table. >>
And the Seated Quarters are an even WORSE investment!!!!
Don't even consider THINKING about collecting them until I get the last 6 I need to finish my set.
Now then, things do change over time though, you understand.
About the time I'm ready to retire and sell my collection of Seated Quarters, they'll be the hottest series going, and you'll need to mortgage your house and buy all you can.
Ray
placergold= Placer County????? Just curious
<< <i>perhaps I should focus upon circulated gold. >>
I were going to invest in gold, I would either buy U.S. gold eagles with an eye toward purchasing Mint State pieces with the fewest marks, or I would buy VERY CHOICE MS-63 and 64 “older” gold type coins. There are collectors out there who like those sorts of items. The MS-63 and 64 coins are still reasonably priced, and there are collectors out there who want to collect them if they have good eye appeal.
Circulated U.S. common date gold is a pretty dead market. Most collectors don’t like them, and the growth prospects, beyond bullion price increases are not good.
<< <i>Bill must be retired and rich and obviously he doesn't live around here where more companies are laying off and closing every day!!! >>
Yep, I’m guilty as charged. I’m a Republican, but I’m not retired, and my wife and I have NOT been immune to economic downturns. About a decade ago I got laid off when my company downsized and dumped a lot of middle aged managers and other employees. My wife and I decided that the time had come for me to fulfill my dreams and try something that I REALLY enjoyed. So I became a coin dealer. It’s been great, and I’ve done well in good markets and bad because each offers opportunities.
And last year my wife got laid off by her company after she had worked there for 27 years. We decided to move to Florida and start fresh. Today she just got hired in a new job that she really wanted.
Yes, our net worth is higher than most people, but one of the reasons why that is so is that we have saved 20% of our income per year in retirement accounts and 401Ks in addition to my coin collection. And we have been careful with our money. I know not everyone can do that, but I watched my parents, who never made more than a middle class income, become multi-millionaires as a result of their heavy savings and investments in the stock market and land, and that was one of my role models.
I know things are hard for a lot of people. But only way that you are going to fix things is to decide to do something for yourself. The government is not going do it for you. In fact if you are a middle aged white guy, the government is out to kick you in the gut, which is one thing that drove me from the Democratic Party.
The best you can ask from government is the right to economic freedom. If you have that, you have got the playing field that will allow you to do better.
Well enough of the soapbox.
<< <i>If coin investment depends largely on a great economic environment, then what happened to prices that languished throughout the nineties when economic numbers, stock market etc. were terrific? To a certain degree, it is a "rich mans" hobby/investment but collectibles will always hold value depending upon demand.....which I think is very much up these days....for what reasons? Are prices catching up from the past 20 years of sleeping? It's like real estate....there not making more of it....it's finite and populations are growing as is demand. It is a very different realism out there now and I think we have only seen the tip of the iceberg.
Didn't mean to cause a "firestorm", however, I think it is healthy to discuss the coin market as it relates to present and future developments. >>
Coins and the overall economy have direct ties but they are also capable of independent
behaviour because what affects one can affect the other to a much greater or lesser extent.
While demographics were pushing huge numbers of people into some of their most product-
ive years, it was doing nothing for the coin market. Individually collectors were doing better
financially during the '90's but the increased spending of existing collectors was not sufficient
to absorb the large numbers of coins coming on the market from retiring collectors. There was
very little growth in the numbers of new collectors all through the '70's, '80's, and '90's. This
resulted in a crash in the beginner types of coins. It was almost impossible to sell things like
nice circulated semi-key date Lincolns in the mid-'90's except at a steep discount. Mint sets
were selling for less than face value and proof sets were dropping toward that level. While the
modern coins stabilized and firmed in '95 due to increased demand it was a few more years be-
fore other inexpensive coins found enough new demand to increase. All this new demand is com-
ing from legions of new and returning collectors. They have been attracted by new coins in circu-
lation and a new vitality in the hobby.
The difficulty of making "wise" investments in coins or any other collectible is that collectors are
fickle. What is popular one day may not be the next. Even if collectors don't abandon something
in droves they may still change the way they collect it and confound anyone who would try to pre-
dict what's next. If you must invest in coins you would be well advised to seek out and speak to
new collectors and find out what interests them. Certainly their tastes will change as their exper-
ience and knowledge increase but it might give you some insights into where they might go in the
future.
- Choice, circulated early coins in VF to AU condition
- Choice Mint State "older" gold coins from the early 19th century to 1932
- Better date coins in "collectors' conditions"
- Civil War Tokens, and presidential campaign medalets.
- Classic medals struck during the late 18th and early to mid 19th century
The last two itme have only become good investments in recent years.
The places where I have done the worst have been most modern coins, including Proof sets from the 1960s to the 1980s.
AND I lost my shirt on a set of middle grade Indian cents that I collected as a kid. In general I have no faith in circulated sets of 20th century coins. Some of the key dates have done very well, but the rest have languished.
Morgan Dollar Aficionado & Vammer
Current Set: Morgan Hit List 40 VAM Set