It seems like every 10 years or so someone writes a best-selling book predicting imminent economic collapse. In 1980 it was "Crisis Investing," in 1990 it was "The Great Depression Of 1990," or something like that.These people were wrong then, and they will probably be wrong this time, too.
Wells that were capped off in Texas back in the 40s and 50s and considered to be empty are now found to have filled up again, but due to the EPA, we can't open up those wells and pump it out again
Believe me, I've got Texas oil wells from the 1940's, 1950's and 1990's out back, and they AIN'T refilled. It could happen in a small amount, but it's mechanically impossible for nature to return them to virgin pressure today. Not without Noah building another Ark, and God said that wouldn't be necessary again!
Now if you steadfastly believe, I know where you can buy a small Texas oil field for -$5000. That's *negative* $5000, as in they will pay you $5000 to sign up as owner. You'll get paid to test your idea! But the bad news is you'll accept all environmental liability for all wells, tanks, and gathering systems you acquire. Still interested? No one else is.
Russ, one thing that you may not have considered is that in the last 10 years many offshore Drill Ships have been put into service that can drill wells in 10,000 feet of water. Thus we have explored and drilled more offshore oil. Obviously this ability has greatly expanded the offshore reserves. Ten years ago 1,000 ft of water was "real deep," but today even 4,000 ft is no big deal.
<< I wuz feelin' pretty frisky for an old fart--until I read this thread. Now, I'm a-gonna hafta kill myself before it's too late. >>
This is an issue I feel strongly about, as you can tell. Thanks, everyone, for putting up with my ranting. I'm glad to see a few other folks agree with me.
A year from now we will see who did better on their investments. If somebody had said a year ago that silver would be around $6 and gold at $415 they would have been chastised to death.
I have no idea where we will be in another year, but I'll bet George Bush is still the President and silver and gold will produce at the very least a 20% gain, that's at the very least.
We will see.
Happy new year to all and may we all end up healthy, wealthy and wise(r).
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Carl, if I traded you a common penny for a common dollar, would that be beneficial to both of us? The only way Globalization can work is if were all under the same rules!
You can fool man but you can't fool God! He knows why you do what you do!
Guys, the economy of the world is not a zero sum gain proposition as some of you seem to believe. Just because I make $1000 doesn't mean somebody else lost $1000.
That's not the way things work, though it is the socialist mantra nonetheless. A rising tide lifts all boats.
WallStreetMan, what do you mean about blame? GW has been busy cleaning up the messes left by the previous administration.
Clinton's approach to our enemies was appeasement. You can't appease religeous fanatics whose ONLY goal is our death.
Bill Clinton's legacy is a stained blue dress and 9-11. It's what happens when immoral and mediocre people are put into positions of power and authority.
I guess this booming economy is a hard pill to swallow for you, isn't it? History has proven that you can't tax your way into prosperity.
The Reagan tax cuts led to the R&D and the new technology that drove the 90s. The Bush tax cuts will have the same effect but we won't really get the full advantage of it for another 3 to 5 years yet.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Personally, I am more than a bit jaded by these extremist viewpoints. If anyone really knew exactly what will happen, they would be keeping it to themselves. Since I do not claim to have any clue what the future will hold, I try to spread my bets with strategies that have worked in the past:
1. Work hard when you are young and try to put away as much money as you can. 2. Invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate, and your own business; hedge with gold and collectibles. 3. Keep some cash around in case of emergency. 4. Shun debt. 5. Live well-within your means. Do not overspend on non-appreciating assets. Do spend some money to enjoy yourself. 6. Never fail to educate yourself and you children as much as possible. 7. Try to relax, occasionally, and have some fun. Sure, there is a lot to worry about, but there is a lot to be thankful for, as well. Value time with family above everything else.
Fortunately our group on these boards we are part of the thinkers and the doer’s of the world. Most of us will do fine no matter what happens. If we make some mistakes we will always recover, as knowledge and experience are truly power. I some times have a tendency to think that ever one in the world is mulling over all these problems. This of course is not true. We are very lucky to have such minds, as only about 5% of the people on the planet ever really think about what is happening to them, and their families finances. On the financial side of my life the smartest thing I ever learned to do was to look for the hidden costs, and lies in all sales presentations, concerning ALL financial transactions. If a person can learn to do that early in life, and add the work ethic to their formula, their success is almost guaranteed. Here are some common facts that many of you know and the rest will learn, or have some real bad times. Most of the world’s multi-millionaires stay very diversified; there is always something going up and something going down. They also do NOT invest in other people’s deals, they own their assets outright and they decide what to sell or what to buy. They read a great deal but look for what the author is promoting. The simple fact is that no investments are good over very long periods. Any author that tells you that over the last two hundred years the average rate of return on stocks was 12% is an out right liar. First there cant be more than a hand full of companies still in existence from two hundred years ago. This holds true for the Gold and silver markets and all other markets. Short-term financial advice is generally just as bad if you are putting all your eggs in one basket. Most wealth investors learn very quickly that time cures all investment problems, so they stay diversified into many investments they control and keep adding to the pile with work. Actually most investments will have their day, and the sole largest problem in the U.S. is NOT picking the right places to put your money. That problem is debt and credit. You cannot make any large gains to your estate plan buying on credit, sure you might get lucky gambling now and again but in the long run you will lose. You cannot build real wealth in your home paying out a 30-year mortgage. By the time you pay for it 3 times, modernize it, and pay the sales fees you will be lucky to break even. You cannot make money buying coins, gold, silver, or stocks on credit unless this is your primary business. One last thing, humans are born into a huge shopping mall. What wealthy people have learned to do is not try to fight the uncontrollable urges to shop and buy things, they have learned to buy true investments and not junk. They might collect coins but they do not collect beanie babies.
The next time you hear a politician use the words "billion" casually, think about whether you want that politician spending your tax money.
A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into perspective in one of its releases:
A billion seconds ago, it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago, Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago, our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington spends it.
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
Thanks SportsModerator1, and you are exactly right on your Billion post. In the 70's no one ever talked about a Billion dollars. In the U.S. you had only a hand full of Billionares Howard hughes, H.L.hunt and a few others and they had a couple of Billion. Can you believe that GOOGLE will go public this year at a minium of 15 Billion. How can you sell stock in a company based on only promises of future net profits for all those Billions. Only in the America of today could you sell that deal.
The next time you hear a politician use the words "billion" casually, think about whether you want that politician spending your tax
A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into perspective in one of its releases:
A billion seconds ago, it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago, Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago, our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington spends it.
------------------------- Or as Johnny Carson put it a billion is the number of cans of Van Camps pork and beans that it would take to get enough pork to make a pork chop.
Excellent points by Topstuff, DCarr, Sportsmoderator, and GoldSaint. We're fortunate to have their contrarian points of views expressed. Too bad more others don't even see the forest that has been growing up around us.
Our country has placed itself into a corner where it has NEVER been before. Countries or empires that have followed this "tax, spend and devalue their currency" routine have failed and fallen by the wayside. China is like the US in 1950's or 1960's. We are past our peak and being replaced by the Asian cheaper/more competitive labor. It's call market efficiency. The same thing that brought us to great power in the 1920's to 1950's. It is cyclical and we cannot prevent it. Not with tarrifs or taxes or embargoes. The more we meddle with it, the worse the hurt when things finally change.
Gold is NOT an investment. Neither are STOCKS or anything else. They are all hedges or places to put your assets until another area has a brighter outlook. Gold over the past 200 years in a meaningless concept. So are stocks. So is the CPI and every other "generated" govt stat. Look at what really counts, that is, gold's performance when the WORLD left the gold standard (1974 to date). That is the only meaningfull "history" of where we have been and where we are going. Of course gold did very little from 1804 to 1974. The gold price was basically fixed as it was currency around the world. It wasn't supposed to go up in price, except in relation to currencies that lost their value due to mismanagement. Those first 6 years off the gold standard (1974-1980) were tumultuous and the big time paper-backers had enough of it. They created a game in the early 1980's that would put gold in it's place for 20 years. They changed the rules on the Hunt's and instituted an anti-gold and anti-metals policy (pro-paper). I thought that game would end within 10 years or so. My hat is off to the FED and the Central Banks for keeping the ruse alive for so so long. For the first time in 20 years, the price of gold is free (or somewhat so) to seek a market equilibrium price. Wait until gold is fully unhedged. The gold lease game as well as the gold hedge game perpetrated on the gold buying public since the early 1990's has been exposed and basically expunged. If anyone had tried doing this on STOCKS, they'd have been tossed in the slammer, after all their wealth was taken away first.
For the past 2 years and probably the next 2-5 years, gold and other commodities will be GREAT HEDGES. Stock Funds will literally suck, unless you're talking bear funds or energy/commodity/key services stocks. But DOW and NASDAQ stocks on average: hedges they aren't. Investments they aren't. Safety that aren't.
The 30% rise this year in gen'l stocks funds was a good dead-cat bounce. With all the liquidity the FED pumped into the market from March to September what would you expect? If I gave each of you a free $20,000 to spend what would happen? The FED devalued the dollar by around 30% and we saw a 30% gain in the Stock market....what a coincidence. Now that is a zero sum game! All US dollar related assets dropped 30% this year. That includes US based companies with assets denominated with US dollars.
AS DCarr said, gold performed well during the great depression. Gold stocks went up on average around 600%. I have no idea where all the malarky about gold becoming useless in an economy collapse comes from. It is one asset (along with silver) that you want to have. If you are uncomfortable with it, please bring me your $20 Saints on that fateful day, and I'll give you a US $20 note.
Those who have stated that tough times have faced the nation several times in the past 20 years and we have not cracked, true enough. WE also haven't inflated our money supply to the nth degree as we have now done. Our assumption of future debt to live high on the hog now is far beyond what it has EVER been before. As long as the rest of the world buys our daily debt of 2 BILLION every day, we'll go on our merry way. No problemo! But over the past few months, major countries have been selling back our treasuries and dollars (dollar falls!). Japan and China continue to buy them up so as to keep their currencies weak too and maintain the current trade balances. At some point though, these guys are going to get fed up buying back $2 BILLION in currency each day that was printed the same week with no backing except our "good faith." This model doesn't work in business nor is it allowed, but it's ok for the US Govt.
Epilogue:
Unhedged gold shares were up 53% this year. Gold was up over 20%. MS64/65 Saints were up over 50% too I didn't see any of those on Dollardude's list. An oversight perhaps?? We had these same discussions last year at this time and anyone who even hinted at $400 gold was laughed off the Forum. Gold was around $320-340 then. We will be having these same discussions a year from today as gold flirts with $500. And gold will still be a "bad" investment (I mean hedge) because it has not risen in value over a 200 year window. Sheesh! QED.
Hi, newbie here. I have been reading your posts. Very interesting and thanks for sharing your insights. In my opinion, the dollar will slide even further as the gold traded funds start trading as common stock, anytime this year. They will need to show physical gold to back their trades. That will lead to some mad rush to acquire gold. Also, the OPEC and Russia have indicated very strongly that they will be moving to the euro as the default currency for trading oil. Did you also notice that the Bush Administration just last week asked the asian nations to stop supporting the dollar. He has in effect said "let it slide".
Gold and Silver have good times ahead and so do gold and silver coins. I just saw the numismedia FMV and they have closed in with PCGS on all coin prices.
We here in the U.K. are liking the freefall of the Dollar. Because we see the Gold and silver price rising and we are getting $1,000 for £570 I am seeing bullion flooding into the U.K. market from the U.S. as it makes the bullion so cheap for the British at present due to how many dollars we are getting to the pound. We British are also booking holidays in Florida in our droves as the holidays are so cheap just now with the Pound being so strong.Lovely..........
All you have to do to see that the Dollar is going to $2.00 to the £1 is to go to this link,look at it for ten minutes and while you are looking at the site...................THINK, It will sink in eventually..............
I don't see any problem with our current $7 TRILLION national debt, other than this is THE MAJOR differences between now and back 10 or 20 years ago. The age-old game of buy now and pay back later with devalued dollars has made many rich. Wonder how much longer the rest of the world will buy into the US dollar as the reserve currency of choice? That $7 TRILLION pales in comparison to the $44 TRILLION in future guarantees that we have committed to as a nation.
One solution is to dig out those Woodrow Wilson $100,000 plates from the basement of the US Treasury and put the printing presses on full speed for a few days. We only need to print 60 MILLION of these notes, hand them out to all of our debtor accounts, and case solved! Clear credit and ready to spend another $7 TRILLION. I'm sure the notes would be most welcome and down the road they would be collector's items too. They could even be redeemable in gold though you'd only get about half an ounce for them once things finally stabilized out. But they would probably roll great for making your own cigarettes.
I stated an opinion. Any inference that I am returning "favors" to my excellent friends in the bullion business is insulting. They don't need favors.
It is no skin off my nose if you buy gold or stock in Sears.
The BEST ....long long long time investment is and always has been.......INTEREST.
If it throws off income forever, it is SUPERB.
But at times, there are things that take a spurt and give you even more capital to put out at interest. A wise man will take advantage of it.
All I know is that from a personal and national standpoint, we are in an unmanageable debt position.
Not one of you who is in business would extend credit to a customer who had the balance sheet of the United States.
The US is broke. Fact. Manufacturing has left the US. And now all services that are not directly related to personal grooming or medicine or feeding is leaving for India.
Not what I call an optimistic situation.
But....hey....I got my gold. I stated an opinion.
Do as you wish.
And my reference in the past to my excellent credit with major bullion dealers was just to let THIS GROUP (who knew NOTHING about me) know that this "newbie" would never screw you on a deal. If it was taken as bragging, it was not intended as such.
<< <i>The earth, no matter how big, is a closed system...when one gains, another loses >>
I notice that Deadhorse realized the above statement is not true.
A gain where nobody loses often happens when something gets invented. Say for example penicillin. Nobody lost anything during that invention. However many, many people gained from it.
When a pop 1 coin is created by repeated submissions from a large pool of coins one grade lower, the submitter profits greatly, however the end user is likely not getting anywhere near fair value. At some point in time, the holder of such a coin will get hammered when the plastic no longer has value. You could say that a pop 1 coin was "invented." The inventor wins, the end user.....not.
Gov. has minipulated things so far what makes you think they will allow your economic disaster senarios to occur? What if they make gold illegal to own ?
The United States can't keep living off borrowing more & more forever, less then 30 years ago we had a national debt of less then 1 trillion dollars, today it's over 7 trillion, when the baby boomers start retiring in the elction cycle during 2008 the broken promise of the social security lock box might be remembered by those who get hurt by it, lets see, who was it that made that promise again ???
No big deal you say ? what is the biggest defunded [and I meant to say defunded as opposed to unfunded] mandate of the federal government ? Socal Security for the baby boom generation. Either we will keep our word to future seniors and go into mega debt or we wil drastically cut benefits or we will have to raise taxes dramatically to help pay for todays tax cuts, but certainly it's easy to live well off debt and leave the mess for someone else to fix. The Democrats ad Republicans have both failed us in solving these problems. I wish I could say I see a light at the end of the tunnel for us, but it would take drastic changes in current government policies to do so from all involved.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
Please propose a scenario how the govt can continue to manipulate the economy so that everyone wins. This is no small feat. It already has Sir Alan scratching his head. He finally gave up control of trying to keep the US Dollar propped up (a hopeless cause due to all the money that had been printed). They also have slowed on their daily hijinks into the gold market to keep the price depressed to under $350, then $380, and finally $400. Maybe they are waiting to make a stand at $450 or $500? They were not successfull at $400/oz because world markets are bigger than the US Govt. Now they have settled on the single goal of trying to keep interest rates low until November 2004 and make the landing as soft for as long as possible. And frankly, they are starting to lose the handle on this one too. The longer they wait, the more US treasuries get dumped back to us as no one is happy earning 1% (negative REAL rate) on our T-bills. Other major nations have realistic interest rates in the 3-6% range that spurs foreign investers to buy.
About the only recourse that I see is to allow the recession that has been brewing for 3 years to come home and roost, and clear out all the malinvestments of the past 2 decades. In other words pay the piper for all the stored up excesses. Had we bit the bullet early on we'd already be on the road to a strong recovery. Next, let gold seek its true course and quit manimulating every financial market in existence (currencies, stocks, gold, t-bills, oil, etc.). Restore faith to our currency by backing it with something tangible instead of empty promises. But this policy won't get any politician re-elected so the govt will continue on the current course. However the ammo pack is nearly empty as is the confidence.
I own at least one of those just made-it pop 1 coins. Believe me, it gives me ZERO pride of ownership as I know exactly what the coin really is. No pride at all in that. If I was ignorant of that fact, that I would be in bliss. If anything, I dislike such coins and look for the soonest and best opportunity to dispose of them. They are nothing more than opportunities to take advantage of down the road. If we didn't have a discretely stepped grading system, coins like this would be worth only marginally more than high end coins of the lower grade.
I can't propose a senerio I'm not smart enough. I don't think anything they have done, will do or are trying to do will make everyone winners. I do believe inflation will hit big time but feel more secure in my low interest locked in home loan, low monthly payments and debts paid up than owning gold.
But the question was can you put a price on happiness (being a collector)?
not as a collector, coins are not that important. I would think of what those thousands of dollars could do instead of buying that 1983 cent in MS70 (just an example don't know off hand what modern would cost thousands just know they exist)
OK maybe the pop 1 coins would not bring YOU happiness but they might to someone else. I am sure that coins bring you SOME kind of happiness and that was my real point on the pop 1 happiness is that SOMEONE (collector) gets happiness from his pop 1 coin (or any other coin for that matter).
All in all with the doom and gloom predictors in this thread we (United States) will not really see any hard times as the world changes and what makes you think the strongest economy will deteriate to a point where we become a third world country? just my opinion.
Legalize gambling. Tax it. If someone can't handle it, tough.
Legalize drugs. Tax them. Clean needles, a signed disclosure statement, and a nice lil hospital room to take the pop.
Become the world's consumer for REAL. Establish the price we will PAY for oil. Anyone wants more, they can look for ANOTHER buyer. Think Europe and Asia wanna own SUV's and power mowers? The price would fall to our level almost overnight.
Spend what we spend on military incursions in OTHER countries on maintaining our technoweapons and operators HERE. Spend the balance on the promises we made to OUR people.
Dump welfare. At least dump MONEY for welfare. NOBODY in a country as rich as ours should do without. BUT....they don't need any CASH. Give em a clean facility (barracks) to live in, protection, basic staples (milk, flour, rice, meat, etc) but no CASH. Cash is only for WORK. Needless to say....no alcohol would be in the staples. Gotta WORK for beer.
Tariffs tariffs tariffs. Since we are competing with countries who are ALLOWED to pay slave wages and dump effluent into the sea, WE charge em a tariff to equal what US companies would have to pay for labor and environment. HELLO! It seems it is now as cheap to hire our own. Golly.
Change Social Security. Make it MANDATORY to contribute until age 30. Then allow the worker to CHOOSE whether to continue (or scale down the contribution) or use it himself in his CHOSEN investment.....whatever it is. BUT....by so choosing, he expands his own choices but relinquishes his claim to more than whatever percentage he has paid in.
By so doing, we would REDUCE the need for more cops, more defense spending (at no loss of DEFENSE) and open up new channels of regulated revenue from what is now illegal and dangerous.
Now this ain't gonna please the political elites one dang bit. GWB and his whole family and the Carlyle Group would NOT like it at all. Neither would the Clintons or the political establishment.
<< Hey, what's? 2 successive responses that are not pro-Dow and anti-gold? Dollardude, get in and save the day! >>
Roadrunner, if you put your talents to work instead of worrying about of a bunch of conspiracy theories, you too might build some wealth. Putting your faith in a useless metal that does not create jobs or income is not wise. Putting your faith in businesses (stock market and real estate) that put people to work and create income is the way to make things happen.
<< <i>,Please propose a scenario how the govt can continue to manipulate the economy so that everyone wins. >>
There is no one answer to all questions and there is no investment which is best all the time.
The government doesn't create wealth through any of their actions (road building and the like excepted). They confiscate and redistribute wealth. They allocate it massage it and beat it into square holes but they do not create it. Money is merely a medium of exchange and has nothing to do with wealth. Yes if it gets overvalued or undervalued it will reward and punish those on the opposite sides of the move but it is not wealth. Wealth is the accumulation of value; it can take many forms some of which are not easily traded or priced.
People will continue their activities whose sum total defines the economy until such time as the real world prevents it. The stock market will continue until the time that people no longer believe that entities can create wealth and distribute it to shareholders. Gold will have value until people are no longer willing to trade money or anything of value for it. The government will continue to tax until the sun grows dim.
I disagree with the above statements. I contend that in a MODERN economy, gold has little intrinsic value. Gold is seldom used as a medium of exchange. The U.S. government removed ALL precious metals from its currency. Yes, they have gold reserves, but they are mostly symbolic. If a modern economy were to collapse, people would create a black market economy in which goods and services would be traded for goods and services. You could NOT go down to the local grocery store with a gold bar and buy groceries.
I will agree that in ANCIENT times, gold was used as a medium of exchange.
Most of what you said seems reasonable enought As you said, the power brokers would never let this happen. Families like the Bush's, Kennedy's, Clinton's, Cheney's, etc. would lose a grasp on their empires.
I also don't agree with the idea of tarrifs. It was tarrifs and the meddling of the Hoover administration that accentuated the recovery of the 1929 crash and turned it into a decade of despair. There are many similarities to then and now. That market also had a sizeable dead cat bounce following the initial crash. Coincidental? Roosevelt tossed in his 2 cents with the New Deal propaganda. If not for WWII, who knows how long the recovery would have taken. The stock market crash was not bad a jolt. It was the ill-advised recovery efforts by the govt (Smoot-Hawley for ex.) that helped turn it into the great depression. Tarrifs are a temporary patch. But the ulitmate fix always comes from rebuilding a more efficient and resilient economy, not more regulations and laws.
Actually they are not symbolic. If it was symbolic, they would be holding platinum, silver, palladium, rubies, emaralds, diamonds to flaut their prestige. Holding gold reserves in itself shows the government's nervousness about their currency in the long run. International debts are paid in gold. Why do you think all countries have gold reserves. If a country is in deep economic crisis, they pledge their gold reserves to the International banks and get the most stable currency in return to run their business.
>> people would create a black market economy in which goods and services would be traded >> for goods and services.
That is an assumption. You can always buy good with gold. Gold is the most liquid asset.
>> You could NOT go down to the local grocery store with a gold bar and buy groceries.
Yes you can. People are not going to become uncivilized cavemen. They do retain their knowledge that gold is money. The whole world knows it. It is only here in the US that the government has been hiding and not making a big issue, as they do not want people to hoard gold. Remember what happened when HomeLand security guys said buy tapes and block the wind from coming inside. Everyone ran to the store to buy tapes.
<< <i>I contend that in a MODERN economy, gold has little intrinsic value. ... If a modern economy were to collapse, people would create a black market economy in which goods and services would be traded for goods and services. You could NOT go down to the local grocery store with a gold bar and buy groceries. I will agree that in ANCIENT times, gold was used as a medium of exchange. >>
If there was a major economic collapse, there wouldn't be a "modern" economy any more ! Things would revert back to a previous barter/tangible system, and gold would be accepted just like it is currently in use in many parts of the world.
But I doesn't take an economic "collapse" for gold to go up. Just look at the late 1970s. The economy didn't collapse, but gold went way up in price. I suspect the same sort of thing will happen this time.
I disagree. If the economy collapsed, we WOULD indeed go to a barter system. Just look at some historical examples like Russia. Their currency has such huge inflation that many people don't even use it. They ALSO don't use GOLD!!!!!! They use a black market barter system, trading goods and services for goods and services. A few rich families and governments controlling a good or commodity has, historically, not controlled something long-term as the above thread suggests. The multitudes of the middle class are what long-term controls the economy. And, they are NOT buying NOR are they using gold in the real world -- even where economies are shaky.
> If the economy collapsed, we WOULD indeed go to a barter system. Just look at some historical > examples like Russia. Their currency has such huge inflation that many people don't even use it. They > ALSO don't use GOLD!!!!!! They use a black market barter system, trading goods and services for > goods and services
Communist countries (Soviet Union, Eastern European Bloc) in general resorted to barter trade even when their economy and the world economy was doing ok. Isn't that the essense of communism ? "Capitalists can take their money and wealth and shove it up". The residue of their thinking still exists.
In Asia, look at China, they have opened their doors to private ownership of Gold now and the chinese are hoarding it. In India, traditionally gold has been the defacto measure of wealth.
I think the main reason gold and silver are going up (in present US$) is because the US$ is dropping - against most other 'main' currencys
- I live in the US and do not see a difference that I can tell
it will help the trade deficit we have with many countries -> and loss of jobs to these countries
CHINA has everything? What they need are some sort of unions or labor controls - a Chinese laborer goes to 'work' for a big factory - lives in their barracks, eats their food, puts in 300 hours a month for their $80/month take home that they send to their families to support them = we in the US can not compete with that on a mass scale
I want the US dollar to keep on dropping - I do not care if it means some fancy new electronics from Japan costs me more ( I will wait a few years until it is copied and mass produced by 10 companies )
> I contend that in a MODERN economy, gold has little intrinsic value. ... > If a modern economy were to collapse, people would create a black market > economy in which goods and services would be traded for goods and services.
People are forgetting that near economic collapses and the real ones have happened in the 1980s-1990s. The Indonesian economy collapsed and their Rupiah went to about 16,000 rupiah / 1 USD. The Russian economic collapse when they were transitioning to democracy. Argentina economic crisis and the Brazilian economic crisis are all examples of Modern Economy under stress. Japanese modern economy came close to a collapse after 10 years in recession and negative interest rates, humongous bankruptcy rates.
You have to remember that in each of these cases, the US unloaded dollars to help these countries. But, what will happen when the US dollar loses value. No where but gold...especially since the Bush Admin doesn't want anyone to help the dollar stay at its current levels. I am pretty sure that an economic collapse in the US is uncalled for or is a silly prediction. It won't happen. But that doesn't mean, the gold prices aren't going to go up.
Comments
<< <i>I wuz feelin' pretty frisky for an old fart--until I read this thread. Now, I'm a-gonna hafta kill myself before it's too late. >>
why all this talk of doom and gloom? remember - topstuf has references from top bullion dealers; maybe
he is returning the favor using the fear factor to drum up some business for them.
Believe me, I've got Texas oil wells from the 1940's, 1950's and 1990's out back, and they AIN'T refilled. It could happen in a small amount, but it's mechanically impossible for nature to return them to virgin pressure today. Not without Noah building another Ark, and God said that wouldn't be necessary again!
Now if you steadfastly believe, I know where you can buy a small Texas oil field for -$5000. That's *negative* $5000, as in they will pay you $5000 to sign up as owner. You'll get paid to test your idea! But the bad news is you'll accept all environmental liability for all wells, tanks, and gathering systems you acquire. Still interested? No one else is.
Russ, one thing that you may not have considered is that in the last 10 years many offshore Drill Ships have been put into service that can drill wells in 10,000 feet of water. Thus we have explored and drilled more offshore oil. Obviously this ability has greatly expanded the offshore reserves. Ten years ago 1,000 ft of water was "real deep," but today even 4,000 ft is no big deal.
I am the only one here whose statement is correct....."maybe it will, maybe it won't"
This is an issue I feel strongly about, as you can tell. Thanks, everyone, for putting up with my ranting. I'm glad to see a few other folks agree with me.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
I have no idea where we will be in another year, but I'll bet George Bush is still the President and silver and gold will produce at the very least a 20% gain, that's at the very least.
We will see.
Happy new year to all and may we all end up healthy, wealthy and wise(r).
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I believe that after the Presidential elections are over,
It will be bar the door Nellie. Just hope I am wrong,
but you never now till it happens.
Camelot
That's not the way things work, though it is the socialist mantra nonetheless. A rising tide lifts all boats.
WallStreetMan, what do you mean about blame? GW has been busy cleaning up the messes left by the previous administration.
Clinton's approach to our enemies was appeasement. You can't appease religeous fanatics whose ONLY goal is our death.
Bill Clinton's legacy is a stained blue dress and 9-11. It's what happens when immoral and mediocre people are put into positions of power and authority.
I guess this booming economy is a hard pill to swallow for you, isn't it? History has proven that you can't tax your way into prosperity.
The Reagan tax cuts led to the R&D and the new technology that drove the 90s. The Bush tax cuts will have the same effect but we won't really get the full advantage of it for another 3 to 5 years yet.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
1. Work hard when you are young and try to put away as much money as you can.
2. Invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate, and your own business; hedge with gold and collectibles.
3. Keep some cash around in case of emergency.
4. Shun debt.
5. Live well-within your means. Do not overspend on non-appreciating assets. Do spend some money to enjoy yourself.
6. Never fail to educate yourself and you children as much as possible.
7. Try to relax, occasionally, and have some fun. Sure, there is a lot to worry about, but there is a lot to be thankful for, as well. Value time with family above everything else.
That's the sum total of my wisdom for 2004.
Robert
They read a great deal but look for what the author is promoting. The simple fact is that no investments are good over very long periods. Any author that tells you that over the last two hundred years the average rate of return on stocks was 12% is an out right liar. First there cant be more than a hand full of companies still in existence from two hundred years ago. This holds true for the Gold and silver markets and all other markets. Short-term financial advice is generally just as bad if you are putting all your eggs in one basket. Most wealth investors learn very quickly that time cures all investment problems, so they stay diversified into many investments they control and keep adding to the pile with work. Actually most investments will have their day, and the sole largest problem in the U.S. is NOT picking the right places to put your money. That problem is debt and credit. You cannot make any large gains to your estate plan buying on credit, sure you might get lucky gambling now and again but in the long run you will lose. You cannot build real wealth in your home paying out a 30-year mortgage. By the time you pay for it 3 times, modernize it, and pay the sales fees you will be lucky to break even. You cannot make money buying coins, gold, silver, or stocks on credit unless this is your primary business. One last thing, humans are born into a huge shopping mall. What wealthy people have learned to do is not try to fight the uncontrollable urges to shop and buy things, they have learned to buy true investments and not junk. They might collect coins but they do not collect beanie babies.
Excellent post
As a side note:
The next time you hear a politician use the words "billion" casually, think about whether you want that politician spending your tax money.
A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into perspective in one of its releases:
A billion seconds ago, it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago, Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago, our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington spends it.
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Impressive % gains
Did I mention that my HUI gold basket was up 67% this year?
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A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into perspective in one of its releases:
A billion seconds ago, it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago, Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago, our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington spends it.
-------------------------
Or as Johnny Carson put it a billion is the number of cans of Van Camps pork and beans that it would take to get enough pork to make a pork chop.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Our country has placed itself into a corner where it has NEVER been before. Countries or empires that have followed this "tax, spend and devalue their currency" routine have failed and fallen by the wayside. China is like the US in 1950's or 1960's. We are past our peak and being replaced by the Asian cheaper/more competitive labor. It's call market efficiency. The same thing that brought us to great power in the 1920's to 1950's. It is cyclical and we cannot prevent it. Not with tarrifs or taxes or embargoes. The more we meddle with it, the worse the hurt when things finally change.
Gold is NOT an investment. Neither are STOCKS or anything else. They are all hedges or places to put your assets until another area has a brighter outlook. Gold over the past 200 years in a meaningless concept. So are stocks. So is the CPI and every other "generated" govt stat. Look at what really counts, that is, gold's performance when the WORLD left the gold standard (1974 to date). That is the only meaningfull "history" of where we have been and where we are going. Of course gold did very little from 1804 to 1974. The gold price was basically fixed as it was currency around the world. It wasn't supposed to go up in price, except in relation to currencies that lost their value due to mismanagement. Those first 6 years off the gold standard (1974-1980) were tumultuous and the big time paper-backers had enough of it. They created a game in the early 1980's that would put gold in it's place for 20 years. They changed the rules on the Hunt's and instituted an anti-gold and anti-metals policy (pro-paper). I thought that game would end within 10 years or so. My hat is off to the FED and the Central Banks for keeping the ruse alive for so so long. For the first time in 20 years, the price of gold is free (or somewhat so) to seek a market equilibrium price. Wait until gold is fully unhedged.
The gold lease game as well as the gold hedge game perpetrated on the gold buying public since the early 1990's has been exposed and basically expunged. If anyone had tried doing this on STOCKS, they'd have been tossed in the slammer, after all their wealth was taken away first.
For the past 2 years and probably the next 2-5 years, gold and other commodities will be GREAT HEDGES. Stock Funds will literally suck, unless you're talking bear funds or energy/commodity/key services stocks. But DOW and NASDAQ stocks on average: hedges they aren't. Investments they aren't. Safety that aren't.
The 30% rise this year in gen'l stocks funds was a good dead-cat bounce. With all the liquidity the FED pumped into the market from
March to September what would you expect? If I gave each of you a free $20,000 to spend what would happen? The FED devalued the dollar by around 30% and we saw a 30% gain in the Stock market....what a coincidence. Now that is a zero sum game! All US dollar related assets dropped 30% this year. That includes US based companies with assets denominated with US dollars.
AS DCarr said, gold performed well during the great depression. Gold stocks went up on average around 600%. I have no idea where all the malarky about gold becoming useless in an economy collapse comes from. It is one asset (along with silver) that you want to have. If you are uncomfortable with it, please bring me your $20 Saints on that fateful day, and I'll give you a US $20 note.
Those who have stated that tough times have faced the nation several times in the past 20 years and we have not cracked, true enough. WE also haven't inflated our money supply to the nth degree as we have now done. Our assumption of future debt to live high on the hog now is far beyond what it has EVER been before.
As long as the rest of the world buys our daily debt of 2 BILLION every day, we'll go on our merry way. No problemo! But over the past few months, major countries have been selling back our treasuries and dollars (dollar falls!). Japan and China continue to buy them up so as to keep their currencies weak too and maintain the current trade balances. At some point though, these guys are going to get fed up buying back $2 BILLION in currency each day that was printed the same week with no backing except our "good faith." This model doesn't work in business nor is it allowed, but it's ok for the US Govt.
Epilogue:
Unhedged gold shares were up 53% this year. Gold was up over 20%. MS64/65 Saints were up over 50% too I didn't see any of those on Dollardude's list. An oversight perhaps?? We had these same discussions last year at this time and anyone who even hinted at $400 gold was laughed off the Forum. Gold was around $320-340 then. We will be having these same discussions a year from today as gold flirts with $500. And gold will still be a "bad" investment (I mean hedge) because it has not risen in value over a 200 year window. Sheesh! QED.
roadrunner
Hi, newbie here. I have been reading your posts. Very interesting and thanks for sharing your insights. In my opinion, the dollar will slide even further as the gold traded funds start trading as common stock, anytime this year. They will need to show physical gold to back their trades. That will lead to some mad rush to acquire gold. Also, the OPEC and Russia have indicated very strongly that they will be moving to the euro as the default currency for trading oil. Did you also notice that the Bush Administration just last
week asked the asian nations to stop supporting the dollar. He has in effect said "let it slide".
Gold and Silver have good times ahead and so do gold and silver coins. I just saw the numismedia FMV and they have closed in with PCGS on all coin prices.
We here in the U.K. are liking the freefall of the Dollar.
Because we see the Gold and silver price rising and we are getting $1,000 for £570 I am seeing bullion flooding into the U.K. market from the U.S. as it makes the bullion so cheap for the British at present due to how many dollars we are getting to the pound.
We British are also booking holidays in Florida in our droves as the holidays are so cheap just now with the Pound being so strong.Lovely..........
All you have to do to see that the Dollar is going to $2.00 to the £1 is to go to this link,look at it for ten minutes and while you are looking at the site...................THINK, It will sink in eventually..............
http://www.toptips.com/debtclock.html
Common sense always prevails in the end.
Regards , ManxMan
Now i'm for it..!
roadrunner
Here's ManxMan's link Clock
One solution is to dig out those Woodrow Wilson $100,000 plates
from the basement of the US Treasury and put the printing presses on full speed for a few days. We only need to print 60 MILLION of these notes, hand them out to all of our debtor accounts, and case solved! Clear credit and ready to spend another $7 TRILLION. I'm sure the notes would be most welcome and down the road they would be collector's items too. They could even be redeemable in gold though you'd only get about half an ounce for them once things finally stabilized out. But they would probably roll great for making your own cigarettes.
roadrunner
Any inference that I am returning "favors" to my excellent friends in the bullion business is insulting.
They don't need favors.
It is no skin off my nose if you buy gold or stock in Sears.
The BEST ....long long long time investment is and always has been.......INTEREST.
If it throws off income forever, it is SUPERB.
But at times, there are things that take a spurt and give you even more capital to put out at interest.
A wise man will take advantage of it.
All I know is that from a personal and national standpoint, we are in an unmanageable debt position.
Not one of you who is in business would extend credit to a customer who had the balance sheet of the United States.
The US is broke. Fact. Manufacturing has left the US. And now all services that are not directly related to personal grooming or medicine or feeding is leaving for India.
Not what I call an optimistic situation.
But....hey....I got my gold. I stated an opinion.
Do as you wish.
And my reference in the past to my excellent credit with major bullion dealers was just to let THIS GROUP (who knew NOTHING about me) know that this "newbie" would never screw you on a deal. If it was taken as bragging, it was not intended as such.
Sorry if my post offended anyone.
Puhleez!
I had enough trouble coming up with comparisons for one billion
NOW you bring up Trillion!!!
Cut me some slack!
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<< <i>The earth, no matter how big, is a closed system...when one gains, another loses >>
I notice that Deadhorse realized the above statement is not true.
A gain where nobody loses often happens when something gets invented. Say for example penicillin. Nobody lost anything during that invention. However many, many people gained from it.
If not then one or both made an error.
At some point in time, the holder of such a coin will get hammered when the plastic no longer has value. You could say that a pop 1 coin was "invented." The inventor wins, the end user.....not.
roadrunner
No big deal you say ? what is the biggest defunded [and I meant to say defunded as opposed to unfunded] mandate of the federal government ? Socal Security for the baby boom generation. Either we will keep our word to future seniors and go into mega debt or we wil drastically cut benefits or we will have to raise taxes dramatically to help pay for todays tax cuts, but certainly it's easy to live well off debt and leave the mess for someone else to fix. The Democrats ad Republicans have both failed us in solving these problems. I wish I could say I see a light at the end of the tunnel for us, but it would take drastic changes in current government policies to do so from all involved.
Les
<< <i>You could say that a pop 1 coin was "invented." The inventor wins, the end user.....not. >>
bad example. When a collector buys a pop 1 coin he is benefitting from the JOY of ownership. Can you put a price on happiness and joy?
the seller sure can.
Please propose a scenario how the govt can continue to manipulate the economy so that everyone wins. This is no small feat. It already has Sir Alan scratching his head. He finally gave up control of trying to keep the US Dollar propped up (a hopeless cause due to all the money that had been printed). They also have slowed on their daily hijinks into the gold market to keep the price depressed to under $350, then $380, and finally $400. Maybe they are waiting to make a stand at $450 or $500? They were not successfull at $400/oz because world markets are bigger than the US Govt.
Now they have settled on the single goal of trying to keep interest rates low until November 2004 and make the landing as soft for as long as possible. And frankly, they are starting to lose the handle on this one too. The longer they wait, the more US treasuries get dumped back to us as no one is happy earning 1% (negative REAL rate) on our T-bills. Other major nations have realistic interest rates in the 3-6% range that spurs foreign investers to buy.
About the only recourse that I see is to allow the recession that has been brewing for 3 years to come home and roost, and clear out all the malinvestments of the past 2 decades. In other words pay the piper for all the stored up excesses. Had we bit the bullet early on we'd already be on the road to a strong recovery. Next, let gold seek its true course and quit manimulating every financial market in existence (currencies, stocks, gold, t-bills, oil, etc.). Restore faith to our currency by backing it with something tangible instead of empty promises. But this policy won't get any politician re-elected so the govt will continue on the current course. However the ammo pack is nearly empty as is the confidence.
roadrunner
roadrunner
<< <i>the seller sure can. >>
and they do. But the question was can you put a price on happiness (being a collector)?
not as a collector, coins are not that important. I would think of what those thousands of dollars could do instead of buying that 1983 cent in MS70 (just an example don't know off hand what modern would cost thousands just know they exist)
OK maybe the pop 1 coins would not bring YOU happiness but they might to someone else. I am sure that coins bring you SOME kind of happiness and that was my real point on the pop 1 happiness is that SOMEONE (collector) gets happiness from his pop 1 coin (or any other coin for that matter).
All in all with the doom and gloom predictors in this thread we (United States) will not really see any hard times as the world changes and what makes you think the strongest economy will deteriate to a point where we become a third world country? just my opinion.
Legalize gambling. Tax it. If someone can't handle it, tough.
Legalize drugs. Tax them. Clean needles, a signed disclosure statement, and a nice lil hospital room to take the pop.
Become the world's consumer for REAL. Establish the price we will PAY for oil. Anyone wants more, they can look for ANOTHER buyer. Think Europe and Asia wanna own SUV's and power mowers? The price would fall to our level almost overnight.
Spend what we spend on military incursions in OTHER countries on maintaining our technoweapons and operators HERE. Spend the balance on the promises we made to OUR people.
Dump welfare. At least dump MONEY for welfare. NOBODY in a country as rich as ours should do without. BUT....they don't need any CASH. Give em a clean facility (barracks) to live in, protection, basic staples (milk, flour, rice, meat, etc) but no CASH. Cash is only for WORK. Needless to say....no alcohol would be in the staples. Gotta WORK for beer.
Tariffs tariffs tariffs. Since we are competing with countries who are ALLOWED to pay slave wages and dump effluent into the sea, WE charge em a tariff to equal what US companies would have to pay for labor and environment. HELLO! It seems it is now as cheap to hire our own. Golly.
Change Social Security. Make it MANDATORY to contribute until age 30. Then allow the worker to CHOOSE whether to continue (or scale down the contribution) or use it himself in his CHOSEN investment.....whatever it is. BUT....by so choosing, he expands his own choices but relinquishes his claim to more than whatever percentage he has paid in.
By so doing, we would REDUCE the need for more cops, more defense spending (at no loss of DEFENSE) and open up new channels of regulated revenue from what is now illegal and dangerous.
Now this ain't gonna please the political elites one dang bit. GWB and his whole family and the Carlyle Group would NOT like it at all. Neither would the Clintons or the political establishment.
But.....Americans would have a chance again.
Now.....dat's all I gonna say.
til next time.
Roadrunner, if you put your talents to work instead of worrying about of a bunch of conspiracy theories, you too might build some wealth. Putting your faith in a useless metal that does not create jobs or income is not wise. Putting your faith in businesses (stock market and real estate) that put people to work and create income is the way to make things happen.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
<< <i>,Please propose a scenario how the govt can continue to manipulate the economy so that everyone wins. >>
There is no one answer to all questions and there is no investment which is best all the time.
The government doesn't create wealth through any of their actions (road building and the like
excepted). They confiscate and redistribute wealth. They allocate it massage it and beat it into
square holes but they do not create it. Money is merely a medium of exchange and has nothing
to do with wealth. Yes if it gets overvalued or undervalued it will reward and punish those on the
opposite sides of the move but it is not wealth. Wealth is the accumulation of value; it can take
many forms some of which are not easily traded or priced.
People will continue their activities whose sum total defines the economy until such time as the
real world prevents it. The stock market will continue until the time that people no longer believe
that entities can create wealth and distribute it to shareholders. Gold will have value until people
are no longer willing to trade money or anything of value for it. The government will continue to
tax until the sun grows dim.
I will agree that in ANCIENT times, gold was used as a medium of exchange.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
Most of what you said seems reasonable enought As you said, the power brokers would never let this happen. Families like the Bush's, Kennedy's, Clinton's, Cheney's, etc. would lose a grasp on their empires.
I also don't agree with the idea of tarrifs. It was tarrifs and the meddling of the Hoover administration that accentuated the recovery of the 1929 crash and turned it into a decade of despair.
There are many similarities to then and now. That market also had a sizeable dead cat bounce following the initial crash. Coincidental?
Roosevelt tossed in his 2 cents with the New Deal propaganda. If not for WWII, who knows how long the recovery would have taken.
The stock market crash was not bad a jolt. It was the ill-advised recovery efforts by the govt (Smoot-Hawley for ex.) that helped turn it into the great depression. Tarrifs are a temporary patch. But the ulitmate fix always comes from rebuilding a more efficient and resilient economy, not more regulations and laws.
roadrunner
>> but they are mostly symbolic.
Actually they are not symbolic. If it was symbolic, they would be holding platinum, silver, palladium, rubies, emaralds, diamonds to flaut their prestige. Holding gold reserves in itself shows the government's
nervousness about their currency in the long run. International debts are paid in gold. Why do you think
all countries have gold reserves. If a country is in deep economic crisis, they pledge their gold reserves
to the International banks and get the most stable currency in return to run their business.
>> people would create a black market economy in which goods and services would be traded
>> for goods and services.
That is an assumption. You can always buy good with gold. Gold is the most liquid asset.
>> You could NOT go down to the local grocery store with a gold bar and buy groceries.
Yes you can. People are not going to become uncivilized cavemen. They do retain their knowledge that
gold is money. The whole world knows it. It is only here in the US that the government has been hiding
and not making a big issue, as they do not want people to hoard gold. Remember what happened when
HomeLand security guys said buy tapes and block the wind from coming inside. Everyone ran to the store
to buy tapes.
<< <i>I contend that in a MODERN economy, gold has little intrinsic value. ... If a modern economy were to collapse, people would create a black market economy in which goods and services would be traded for goods and services. You could NOT go down to the local grocery store with a gold bar and buy groceries. I will agree that in ANCIENT times, gold was used as a medium of exchange. >>
If there was a major economic collapse, there wouldn't be a "modern" economy any more !
Things would revert back to a previous barter/tangible system, and gold would be accepted
just like it is currently in use in many parts of the world.
But I doesn't take an economic "collapse" for gold to go up. Just look at the late 1970s. The economy didn't collapse, but gold went way up in price. I suspect the same sort of thing will happen this time.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
> examples like Russia. Their currency has such huge inflation that many people don't even use it. They
> ALSO don't use GOLD!!!!!! They use a black market barter system, trading goods and services for
> goods and services
Communist countries (Soviet Union, Eastern European Bloc) in general resorted to barter trade even when their economy and the world economy was doing ok. Isn't that the essense of communism ? "Capitalists can take their money and wealth and shove it up". The residue of their thinking still exists.
In Asia, look at China, they have opened their doors to private ownership of Gold now and the chinese are hoarding it. In India, traditionally gold has been the defacto measure of wealth.
against most other 'main' currencys
- I live in the US and do not see a difference that I can tell
it will help the trade deficit we have with many countries -> and loss of jobs to these countries
CHINA has everything? What they need are some sort of unions or labor controls - a Chinese laborer goes to 'work' for a big factory - lives in their barracks, eats their food, puts in 300 hours a month for their $80/month take home that they send to their families to support them = we in the US can not compete with that on a mass scale
I want the US dollar to keep on dropping - I do not care if it means some fancy new electronics from Japan costs me more ( I will wait a few years until it is copied and mass produced by 10 companies )
<< <i>Please help me, I can't stop buying Gaudens, Anyone know of any curse on the Gaudens >>
Sometimes, a curse can be a good thing.
DD
Yes, the Russian ruble is pretty worthless.....................but it's been on the rise against the dollar !!!!!!
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> I contend that in a MODERN economy, gold has little intrinsic value. ...
> If a modern economy were to collapse, people would create a black market
> economy in which goods and services would be traded for goods and services.
People are forgetting that near economic collapses and the real ones have happened in the 1980s-1990s. The Indonesian economy collapsed and their Rupiah went to about 16,000 rupiah / 1 USD. The Russian economic collapse when they were transitioning to democracy. Argentina economic crisis and the Brazilian economic crisis are all examples of Modern Economy under stress. Japanese modern economy came close to a collapse after 10 years in recession and negative interest rates, humongous bankruptcy rates.
You have to remember that in each of these cases, the US unloaded dollars to help these countries. But,
what will happen when the US dollar loses value. No where but gold...especially since the Bush Admin
doesn't want anyone to help the dollar stay at its current levels. I am pretty sure that an economic collapse in the US is uncalled for or is a silly prediction. It won't happen. But that doesn't mean, the gold prices aren't going to go up.